Jump to content

Quigley

ITALY (Botteghino): 'Minions 2' on course to become biggest film of 2022

Recommended Posts

Weekend actuals: 5.03M 5-day opening for Hotel Transylvania 3. That's just 10% below the 4-day opening of Despicable Me 3, which finished its run with 18M euros. So a 15M total gross is definitely in play. My projection, though, is 13.5/14M.

 

Ant Man is doing quite poor and got mauled by HT3: after a weekend just above 800K, its total gross has yet to get to 4M.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



And Christopher Robin opened fourth with 92K.

 

Saw it at 5p.m. - and this is not a movie for mainstream audience. That was understandable back from the trailers. Disney's Christopher Robin has a taste of ancient, lacks in cheap gags, continuously has references to The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh. Above all, it's not a movie directly made for kids, but for those adults or semi-adults that a) love Pooh and the other characters of the 100 acres wood; b) feel the loss of the childhood as a disgrace. Of course a case like that is too rare, so most of the film's actual audience were families whose kids had a Pooh plush at home.

 

In other news, Hotel Transylvania - a movie with cheap gags and a very sellable premise - is still #1, and couldn't be dethroned by Mission Impossible. It's a close race, though, and both are aiming at a 3M weekend.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Here's the full list:

 

1 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 359.096 57.308
2 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT USA 20th century fox italia s.p.a.  € 323.686 45.802
3 RESTA CON ME (ADRIFT) USA 01 distribution  € 185.847 27.324
4 RITORNO AL BOSCO DEI 100 ACRI (CHRISTOPHER ROBIN) USA walt disney s.m.p. italia  € 104.745 16.327
5 COME TI DIVENTO BELLA (I FEEL PRETTY) USA l. red/universal  € 100.953 14.978
6 ANT-MAN AND THE WASP USA walt disney s.m.p. italia  € 68.747 10.651
7 SHARK - IL PRIMO SQUALO (THE MEG) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 44.207 6.375
8 MARY SHELLEY - UN AMORE IMMORTALE GBR notorious pict. s.p.a.  € 29.139 4.580
9 DON'T WORRY (DON'T WORRY, HE WON'T GET FAR ON FOOT) USA adler entertainment s.r.l.  € 19.437 3.103
10 LA SETTIMA MUSA (MUSA) ESP adler entertainment s.r.l.  € 15.684 2.221

 

 

I must say I'm surprised by the weak increases, especially considering the overall bad weather.

HT3 is now about 45% behind DM3, despite being just 15/20% behind last weekend.

DM3 behaved like this: 630k Friday, 1.22M Saturday, 1.12M Sunday. Using the same multiplier, HT3 would make about 2 millions over the weekend (which includes Thursday), or a 60% drop from its 5-day OW despite Christopher Robin bombing and rain falling.

Considering it can't be that bad, Saturday will probably show some unusual jumps.

Edited by Omni
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Saturday numbers:

 

1 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 738.910 108.019
2 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT USA 20th century fox italia s.p.a.  € 652.649 86.400
3 RESTA CON ME (ADRIFT) USA 01 distribution  € 320.155 43.602
4 RITORNO AL BOSCO DEI 100 ACRI (CHRISTOPHER ROBIN) USA walt disney s.m.p. italia  € 195.019 28.420
5 COME TI DIVENTO BELLA (I FEEL PRETTY) USA l. red/universal  € 172.661 23.403
6 ANT-MAN AND THE WASP USA walt disney s.m.p. italia  € 128.343 18.128
7 SHARK - IL PRIMO SQUALO (THE MEG) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 90.186 11.989
8 MARY SHELLEY - UN AMORE IMMORTALE GBR notorious pict. s.p.a.  € 57.653 8.068
9 DON'T WORRY (DON'T WORRY, HE WON'T GET FAR ON FOOT) USA adler entertainment s.r.l.  € 50.799 7.412
10 LA SETTIMA MUSA (MUSA) ESP adler entertainment s.r.l.  € 32.205 4.291

 

Okay, so Saturday rises were perfectly normal (+102% for HT3 vs +95% for DM3). Sunday will likely end up showing better holds than last year, but now it's clear this is just a bad weekend.

 

So far:

1) Hotel Transylvania 3 > 7.8M

2) The Meg > 4.7M

3) Ant Man 2 > 4.3M

4) Ocean's Eight > 2.1M

(just add 15% to those numbers to get the dollar figure)

 

MI6's 6-day opening will be 2.5-2.7M euros.

 

 

 

Edited by Omni
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Sunday numbers:

 

1 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 862.833 126.808
2 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT USA 20th century fox italia s.p.a.  € 601.365 80.753
3 RESTA CON ME (ADRIFT) USA 01 distribution  € 323.234 44.327
4 RITORNO AL BOSCO DEI 100 ACRI (CHRISTOPHER ROBIN) USA walt disney s.m.p. italia  € 237.689 35.660
5 COME TI DIVENTO BELLA (I FEEL PRETTY) USA l. red/universal  € 164.939 22.617
6 ANT-MAN AND THE WASP USA walt disney s.m.p. italia  € 128.034 18.379
7 SHARK - IL PRIMO SQUALO (THE MEG) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 82.384 11.091
8 MARY SHELLEY - UN AMORE IMMORTALE GBR notorious pict. s.p.a.  € 56.936 8.035
9 DON'T WORRY (DON'T WORRY, HE WON'T GET FAR ON FOOT) USA adler entertainment s.r.l.  € 42.929 6.234
10 LA SETTIMA MUSA (MUSA) ESP adler entertainment s.r.l.  € 20.694 2.796

 

 

As expected, HT3 held fairly better than DM3 (released on the same weekend last year - 17% rise vs 9% fall) but not enough to make the weekend figure acceptable. The drop may just look fine to some, but Italy is an awful market in terms of legs: on normal conditions, movies get only one or two good holds, and that's in the 2nd and/or 3rd weekend of release; afterwards, it's a downhill.

Full weekend:

 

1) Hotel Transylvania 3 > 2.30M (-54% from its 5-day OW; -43% from its 4-day OW; 8.68M total; projected total: 12.5M)

2) MI:Fallout > 1.91M (2.28M total including Wednesday gross; projected total: 6.5M)

3) Adrift > 1.02M (1.32M total; projected total: 3M)

4) Christopher Robin > 0.65M (0.65M total; projection: 1.7M)

5) I Feel Pretty > 0.52M (-22%; 1.69M total; projection: 2.4M)

6) Ant Man 2 > 0.40M (-51%; 4.47M total; projection: 4.9M)

7) The Meg > 0.26M (-53%; 4.78M total; projection: 5.1M)

8 ) Mary Shelley > 0.17M (0.2M total; projection 0.5M)

9) Don't Worry > 0.13M (0.15M total)

10) Musa > 0.08M (-65%; 0.46M total)

 

Note: I made the wrong projection for MI6 yesterday (2.5/2.7M) because for some reason I treated it as a 6-day opening, while it was a 5-day one.

 

Edited by Omni
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



8 hours ago, Quigley said:

Comps for MI6?

MI: Rogue Nation opened with 1.56M (2.18M inc. previews), then:

2) 775K (3.7M total)

3) 665K (4.7M total)

4) 311K (5.25M total)

5) 102K (5.4M total)

5.5M finish

 

MI6's range is 6-7 millions.

Also, the first Ant-Man finished its run with 4.7M euros, meaning the second chapter will just barely gross more than #1 (in dollar, though, that's a better gain as the ER went from 1.06/1.08 to 1.15/1.16).

 

 

And since HalloFromGermany posted Monday numbers, let's go with the Tuesday ones:

1. Hotel Transylvania 3: Euro 219.335
2. Mission: Impossible - Fallout: Euro 189.960

4. Christopher Robin: Euro 80.512

 

Small bumps for HT3 and CR, while MI6 is about flat.

Though holds on weekdays aren't important in Italy. It's mainly a matter of how a movie survives to competition (=Thursday #s) and of weather.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Thursday numbers:

 

1 MAMMA MIA! CI RISIAMO (MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN) GBR universal s.r.l.  € 218.073 32.856
2 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 147.580 24.931
3 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT USA 20th century fox italia s.p.a.  € 138.608 21.705

 

 

So a 218K opening Thursday for Mamma Mia! 2, meaning it's looking at a pretty steep fall from its predecessor, which grossed 9.0M euros. Looks like this one isn't even certain to retain 50% of that.

Drops for HT3 and MI6 are in the high 40's from last Thursday, which is pretty decent for the latter.

Unfortunately (but not unexpectedly) Christopher Robin collapsed by more than 55%, let's hope it can soften the drop on the 3-day period.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Omni said:

Thursday numbers:

 

1 MAMMA MIA! CI RISIAMO (MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN) GBR universal s.r.l.  € 218.073 32.856
2 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 147.580 24.931
3 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT USA 20th century fox italia s.p.a.  € 138.608 21.705

 

 

So a 218K opening Thursday for Mamma Mia! 2, meaning it's looking at a pretty steep fall from its predecessor, which grossed 9.0M euros. Looks like this one isn't even certain to retain 50% of that.

Drops for HT3 and MI6 are in the high 40's from last Thursday, which is pretty decent for the latter.

Unfortunately (but not unexpectedly) Christopher Robin collapsed by more than 55%, let's hope it can soften the drop on the 3-day period.

Mamma Mia opened with €1.88M.

And Mamma Mia 2 did 277K in previews.

Link to comment
Share on other sites



Friday numbers for the TOP3:

 

1 MAMMA MIA! CI RISIAMO (MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN) USA universal s.r.l.  € 227.572 33.986
2 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA warner bros italia s.p.a.  € 202.758 32.781
3 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT USA 20th century fox italia s.p.a.  € 187.302 28.196

 

HT3 passes HT2 and is looking at a low-40% drop from last weekend and possibly the third win in a row.

Mission impossible's drop (from the 4-day period) may even be in the high 30's, not bad at all.

Mamma Mia!'s title describes the movie's performance very well. It's a disaster. 1.5/1.6M 4-day OW previews included (compared to Mamma Mia!'s 1.9M 3-day opening) and 4M total (compared to the original's 9.0M).

 

Edited by Omni
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Weather was quite good yesterday, and it looks like many took the last chance of going to the beach before school starts (which is on Wednesday).

As a result, increases from Friday were muted, especially for kids flicks: +65% for HT3 and MI6, +37% for Mamma Mia! (which managed to make even less than MI6's second Saturday), +60% for Christopher Robin, who's looking at a very nasty drop and will disappear from most theatres in a few days.

 

Ant-Man and the Wasp finally passed the original.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



WEEKEND ACTUALS 7-9 SEPTEMBER

- all in million € -

 

-RANK- MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS PROJECTED GROSS
1 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 1.07 - 1.35 3.20
2 Hotel Transylvania 3 1.04 -55% 10.52 12.10
3 Mission Impossible 6: Fallout 0.92 -52% 3.89 6.00
4 Adrift 0.59 -42% 2.41 3.50
5 Slender Man 0.58 - 0.58 1.50
6 Teen Titans Go! To the Movies 0.32 - 0.37 0.80
7 Christopher Robin 0.28 -57% 1.21 1.50
8 I Feel Pretty 0.20 -62% 2.11 2.30
9 Ride 0.17 - 0.17 0.30
10 Revenge 0.14 - 0.14 0.30

 

Nasty weekend indeed.

Mamma Mia! 2 is one hell of a failure. Once you take into consideration inflation, it will lose like 75% of the original's audience.

Hotel Transylvania had another bad hold. It might hold decently next weekend due to weather probably worsening, but that's it. It will struggle to get a 2,4x multiplier from its 5-day opening. Still a huge success, though.

Mission Impossble is just 200K above MI5 because of weaker dailies, and will have a hard time getting the -15% hold MI5 somehow got on its 3rd weekend. Still, all things considered it should have enough gas in the tank to get to 6M (which would be about a 10% improvement over MI5).

The other openers were non-existent. And Christopher Robin...oh bother!

 

Notable totals (movies outside the WE top 10):

The Meg: 4.94M

Ant-Man 2: 4.76M

Ocean's 8: 2.12M

 

 

Edited by Omni
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Despite losing 1/2 of last Thursday's admissions, Mamma Mia! remains #1. Considering its Thu-to-Weekend multiplier was absolutely atrocious last week, I'm expecting a decent drop of 40% or so.

The Equalizer 2 opened #2 with 90K. The first opened just shy of 1M over the 3-day frame, and finished with 2.75M. Looks like the sequel won't get there.

Hotel Transylvania (61K) and MI6 (58K) have been hit hard by the start of the school. The drop is worse for MI6 as it doesn't appeal to kids and was supposed to overtake HT3 on weekdays.

Edited by Omni
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



-RANK- MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS PROJECTED GROSS
1 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 0.68 -37% 2.52 3.50
2 Hotel Transylvania 3 0.64 -39% 11.47 12.10
3 The Equalizer 2 0.59 - 0.59 1.50
4 Gotti 0.53 - 0.53 1.20
5 Mission Impossible 6: Fallout 0.47 -49% 4.65 5.40
6 Slender Man 0.35 -40% 1.18 1.50
7 Adrift 0.31 -48% 2.95 3.30
8 Shoplifter (Japan) 0.24 - 0.24 0.50
9 Sulla Mia Pelle (Italy) 0.20 - 0.24 0.50
10 La Profezia dell'Armadillo 0.15 - 0.15 0.30

 

Better drops this weekend.

Thanks to last weekend being a little subdued and to no competition, HT3 managed a sub-40% drop in its 4th weekend. Incredibles 2 is coming this Wednesday though, so it shouldn't have another million in its pockets.

Bad opening for Equalizer 2, 40% below the original.

Mission Impossible just cannot recover - worst drop in the top 10. At this point I'll just leave any optimism and say it will finish under Rogue Nation's 5.5M total.

Edited by Omni
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Considering Incredibles 2 is opening tomorrow, here's a reminder of Finding Dory's path (data in euros):

 

OD (Thu): 500K

Friday: 750K

Saturday: 1.7M

Sunday: 2.4M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)

Monday: 400K

Tuesday: 420K

Wednesday: 580K

Thursday: 290K (ouch!)

Friday: 470K

Saturday: 1.0M

Sunday: 1.12M

2nd Weekend: 3.04M (-46%)

2nd Monday: 180K

2nd Tuesday: 200K

2nd Wednesday: 290K

3rd Thursday: 137K

3rd Friday: 230K

3rd Saturday: 750K

3rd Sunday: 970K

3rd Weekend: 2.13M (-30%)

4th weekend: 840K (Pets opened)

5th weekend: 360K

6th weekend: 160K

7th weekend: 40K

Total gross: 15.1M

 

So Dory opened on a Thursday, got a 4-day OW very close to IO's (highest grossing Disney-Pixar movie ever in the market, 2nd of all time behind Ice Age 3 which was boosted by 3D), fell very hard on its 2nd weekend (where it should have had the best hold), and somehow recovered the weekend after only to collapse for the rest of its run.

Incredibles 2 opens on a Wednesday, which is by far the biggest of the weekdays here (the equivalent of Tuesday in NA). Dory's 500K first Thursday translates to a Wednesday of about 700K, which is the minimum I2 should get. Weather is still kind of sunny, so the opening might be subdued.

The original opened at 3.7M and finished with 15.6M, but that was a 3-day opening (now all OWs are 4-day)...and also ome time ago

Oh, and The Meg passed the 5M euros mark. Nice success!

Edited by Omni
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.