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ITALY (Botteghino): 'Minions 2' on course to become biggest film of 2022

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Here's something very odd I've noticed about the Ocean's franchise:

 

Ocean's Eleven > 17.8M total gross

Ocean's Twelve > 10.8M

Ocean's Thirteen > 5.8M

Ocean's Eight > 2.1M

 

Never seen such a relentless downfall. At this point, Ocean's Nine will likely get a negative gross.

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11 hours ago, Omni said:

Here's something very odd I've noticed about the Ocean's franchise:

 

Ocean's Eleven > 17.8M total gross

Ocean's Twelve > 10.8M

Ocean's Thirteen > 5.8M

Ocean's Eight > 2.1M

Look a bit like Bourne there

 

2002: 4.4m

2004: 4.6m

2007: 7m (peak, same release year than thirteen)

2012: 2.36m (Damon less)

2016: 2.9m

 

7m to 2.9m for Bourne is quite similar to 5.8m to 2.1m for Ocean

 

Some did hold better in 2007 Harry Potter made 26.4m in Italy in 2017 Fantastic Beast made 16.2m, but in general did the box office in US dollar went down in the last 10-15 year's in that market ?

 

in 2007, 10 movies made over 20m with the top one at 36m, in 2006 Da Vinci Code made 39m.

 

In 2017 2 movies went above 20m in Italy, with beauty winning the year at 22m, in 2018 only Avengers above 20m at 22.8m.

 

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1 GLI INCREDIBILI 2 - 3D (INCREDIBLES 2) USA Walt Disney S.m.p. Italia  € 601.911 94.410
2 MAMMA MIA! CI RISIAMO (MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN) USA Universal S.r.l.  € 71.570 12.980
3 THE EQUALIZER 2 - SENZA PERDONO USA Warner Bros Italia S.p.a.  € 55.200 10.130
4 GOTTI - IL PRIMO PADRINO USA Eagle Pictures S.p.a.  € 51.769 9.510
5 UN AFFARE DI FAMIGLIA (MANBIKI KAZOKU) JPN Bim Distrib. S.r.l.  € 32.658 6.148
6 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA Warner Bros Italia S.p.a.  € 31.883 5.958
7 MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT USA 20th Century Fox Italia S.p.a.  € 30.086 5.472
8 RESTA CON ME (ADRIFT) USA 01 Distribution  € 26.963 5.135
9 SULLA MIA PELLE ITA Lucky Red Distrib.  € 25.964 4.995
10 LA PROFEZIA DELL'ARMADILLO ITA Fandango S.r.l.  € 20.873 3.946
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Not too exciting for I2, looks headed for a debut just under Dory's 5.5M. But since 75/80% of the money will come from Saturday and Sunday, and since increases are very fluctuating, anything from 4.5 to 6+ can still happen. The good news is that weather is getting worse during the weekend (yesterday near Venice it felt like it was July).

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12 hours ago, Barnack said:

Look a bit like Bourne there

 

2002: 4.4m

2004: 4.6m

2007: 7m (peak, same release year than thirteen)

2012: 2.36m (Damon less)

2016: 2.9m

 

7m to 2.9m for Bourne is quite similar to 5.8m to 2.1m for Ocean

 

Some did hold better in 2007 Harry Potter made 26.4m in Italy in 2017 Fantastic Beast made 16.2m, but in general did the box office in US dollar went down in the last 10-15 year's in that market ?

 

in 2007, 10 movies made over 20m with the top one at 36m, in 2006 Da Vinci Code made 39m.

 

In 2017 2 movies went above 20m in Italy, with beauty winning the year at 22m, in 2018 only Avengers above 20m at 22.8m.

 

The BO history of Bourne is much more normal than Ocean's. First and second chapter were modest hits, the last one of the trilogy got a significant increase and then the reboot didn't gain much interest (a 9-year gap matters).

 

And...yes, box office went down a lot in Italy. The biggest difference between now and last decade is the money made by Italian films. 15/20 years ago it wasn't hard for a local comedy to make more than 20M euros, while now even a 10M grosser is considered a strong success.

But American productions are in trouble, too. Here's an example (the highest-grossing hollywood movies ever) :

 

1. Avatar > 65.7M

2. Titanic > 50.2M

3. Alice in Wonderland > 30.4M

4. Ice Age 3 > 29.7M

5. The Da Vinci Code > 28.7M

6. Star Wars: The Force Awakens > 25.6M

7. Inside Out > 25.4M

8. Harry Potter 1 > 25.3M

9. Madagascar 2 > 25.1M

10. The Lion King > 23.5M (rerelease included - 4.1M)

11. Minions > 23.4M

12. The Lord of the Rings 3 > 22.8M

13. Finding Nemo > 22.7M (rerelease included - 0.8M)

14. Harry Potter 7/2 > 22.2M

15. Madagascar 3 > 21.9M

16. The Lord of the Ring 1 > 21.4M

17. Madagascar > 21.2M

18. Harry Potter 2 > 20.9M

19. Shrek 2 > 20.9M

20. The Lord of the Rings 2 > 20.5M

21. Beauty and the Beast > 20.5M

22. Shrek 3 > 20.2M

23. Harry Potter 4 > 20.1M

24. The Passion of the Christ > 19.9M

25. Pirates of the Carribean 2 > 19.9M

 

2015 was the exception, with 2 movies (SW7, Inside Out) entering the top 10, and Minions getting to #11. But when you remove that, the entire list is Cameron+a lot of movies released 20-to-10 years ago. Beauty and the Beast, the biggest success of the last 3 years, didn't even enter the top 20. Infinity War, biggest movie of this year, will be...out of the top 30!

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Time to panic...

 

 

DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K

Saturday: 1.7M

Sunday: 2.4M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)

Monday: 400K

Tuesday: 420K

Wednesday: 580K

Thursday: 290K

 

Close to a 40% on Thursday, despite losing NO showtime (which is half of the reason movies tend to tumble on Thursday). The only hope is that yesterday was just a bad day for animated movies, as Hotel Transylvania 3 dropped over 50% from Wednesday and is down 75% Thu-to-Thu.

Still, a 369K Thursday is closer to Dory's disappointing 2nd Thursday than to Dory's first, which is alarming.

 

Mamma Mia! and MI6 both fell like a rock, too. The former is down like 65% from last week, and MI6 only managed to keep the drop under 60%. Rogue Nation is now definitely out of reach.

 

The only good number of the day is the OD registered by The Nun: 525K. It's no It (which opened with twice that numbers), but it's still one hell of an opening for a horror.

 

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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M

Sunday: 2.4M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)

Monday: 400K

Tuesday: 420K

Wednesday: 580K

Thursday: 290K

 

I2's Friday jump is better than Dory (+77% vs +50%), and while that had to be expected since it opened on a Wednesday, it's still a good sign. Dory's Saturday increase was far from strong, so here's hope I2 will overtake it today.

 

493K for the Nun, a 4% drop from its OD. Weaker hold than It's.

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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M                          Saturday: 1.477M

Sunday: 2.4M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)

Monday: 400K

Tuesday: 420K

Wednesday: 580K

Thursday: 290K

 

Disappointing to say the least, especially when HT3 increases by way more than 200% and even adult movies get jumps around 150%. Its run is far from incredible.

 

The Nun was strong with 784K, about a 60% increase over Friday, which is not bad for the genre.

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1 GLI INCREDIBILI 2 (INCREDIBLES 2) USA Walt Disney S.m.p. Italia  € 1.646.832 239.926
2 THE NUN - LA VOCAZIONE DEL MALE USA Warner Bros Italia S.p.a.  € 581.356 78.248
3 HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: UNA VACANZA MOSTRUOSA (HOTEL TRANSYLVANIA 3: SUMMER VACATION) USA Warner Bros Italia S.p.a.  € 131.055 19.798
4 UNA STORIA SENZA NOME ITA 01 Distribution  € 113.705 17.576
5 THE EQUALIZER 2 - SENZA PERDONO USA Warner Bros Italia S.p.a.  € 101.814 14.477
6 MAMMA MIA! CI RISIAMO (MAMMA MIA! HERE WE GO AGAIN) USA Universal S.r.l.  € 99.328 14.161
7 GOTTI - IL PRIMO PADRINO USA Eagle Pictures S.p.a.  € 84.247 11.909
8 UN AFFARE DI FAMIGLIA (MANBIKI KAZOKU) JPN Bim Distrib. S.r.l.  € 71.877 10.801
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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M                          Saturday: 1.477M

Sunday: 2.4M                            Sunday: 1.647M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)        OW: 4.2M (4.810 total gross)

Monday: 400K

Tuesday: 420K

Wednesday: 580K

Thursday: 290K

 

I2's Sunday being below Dory's Saturday was really unexpected (yesterday the theatre where I went was absolutely packed). Bad Sunday overall, though - for some reason.

 

The numbers are (relatively) pretty dull. In fact:

* It's already behind Dory despite having an extra day

* The 5-day opening is BELOW the 5-day opening of Hotel Transylvania 3

* The 3-day opening is BELOW the 3-day opening of the first Incredibles

* The Nun got a better PSA over the 4-day period

Edited by Omni
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WEEKEND ACTUALS 20-23 SEPTEMBER

- all in million € -

 

-RANK- MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS PROJECTED GROSS
1 Incredibles 2 4.20 NEW 4.81 13.50
2 The Nun 2.42 NEW 2.42 6.60
3 Una Storia Senza Nome (It) 0.35 NEW 0.35 0.90
4 The Equalizer 2 0.34 -42% 1.12 1.70
5 Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again 0.33 -51% 3.06 3.50
6 Hotel Transylvania 3 0.29 -55% 11.87 12.30
7 Gotti 0.27 -48% 0.97 1.30
8 MI6: Fallout 0.23 -51% 4.99 5.30
9 Shoplifters (Jap) 0.21 -13% 0.53 1.00
10 Adrift 0.10 -68% 3.14 3.25

 

I'm projecting a solid multiplier for I2 (well...solid within the limits of Italian standards) thanks to next weekend being really empty (new releases are BlacKkKlansman, Bookshop and the usual indigestible local comedy). Also, while I2 faces competition earlier than Dory (on its 3rd weekend vs on its 4th), Smallfoot is no Pets. Still, a total below the first Incredibles (15.6M) is assured.

 

Let's see how I2 will rank among the other Pixars:

 

1) INSIDE OUT > 25.3M

2) FINDING NEMO > 22.7M

3) RATATOUILLE > 17.5M

4) UP > 15.8M

5) THE INCREDIBLES > 15.6M

6) FINDING DORY  > 15.1M

7) TOY STORY 3 > 13.7M

😎 CARS > 13.0M

9) COCO > 11.2M

10) CARS 2 > 10.5M

11) MONSTERS UNIVERSITY > 9.1M

12) WALL-E > 8.7M

13) CARS 3 > 7.7M

14) BRAVE > 7.2M

15) MONSTERS, INC > 6.4M

16) THE GOOD DINOSAUR > 5.9M

17) TOY STORY 2 > 5.0M

18) A BUG'S LIFE > 4.8M

19) TOY STORY > ? (should be about 4.5M - it apparently sold a little less than 1/4 of Lion King's tickets - so I guess a little less than 1/4 of 19.4)

 

I2 will try to at least beat TS3 and reach the #7 position.

Edited by Omni
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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M                          Saturday: 1.477M

Sunday: 2.4M                            Sunday: 1.647M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)        OW: 4.2M (4.810 total gross)

Monday: 400K (-83%)               Monday: 276K (-83%)

Tuesday: 420K

Wednesday: 580K

Thursday: 290K

 

Same Monday drop as Dory. The only difference is that Dory got an 83% drop after rising by more than 40% on Sunday.

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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M                          Saturday: 1.477M

Sunday: 2.4M                            Sunday: 1.647M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)        OW: 4.2M (4.810 total gross)

Monday: 400K (-83%)               Monday: 276K (-83%)

Tuesday: 420K (+5%)                Tuesday: 265K (-4%)

Wednesday: 580K

Thursday: 290K

 

If I2 keeps this pace, it will fail to even beat Hotel Transylvania 3. Which was out of the top ten for the first time since it opened.

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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M                          Saturday: 1.477M

Sunday: 2.4M                            Sunday: 1.647M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)        OW: 4.2M (4.810 total gross)

Monday: 400K (-83%)               Monday: 276K (-83%)

Tuesday: 420K (+5%)                Tuesday: 265K (-4%)

Wednesday: 580K (+38%)         Wednesday: 316K (+19%)

Thursday: 290K

 

Less than 10% above Dory's 2nd Wednesday :thinking: And down almost 50% from its OD.

Though comparisons with the other releases make me think it will recover quite well over the weekend.

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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M                          Saturday: 1.477M

Sunday: 2.4M                            Sunday: 1.647M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)        OW: 4.2M (4.810 total gross)

Monday: 400K (-83%)               Monday: 276K (-83%)

Tuesday: 420K (+5%)                Tuesday: 265K (-4%)

Wednesday: 580K (+38%)         Wednesday: 316K (+19%)

Thursday: 290K (-50%)              Thursday: 205K (-35%)

 

Using Dory's holds on its 2nd weekend, Incredibles 2 would gross 2.15M, for a 47.5% drop from its OW. I think that's the minimum it should get, as Dory's Thu-to-WE multiplier was really weak.

 

150K for The Nun, which has now overtaken Adrift for the #6 position of the season (starting in August and ending in the following July). 3.3M total.

 

Among the openers, the only who did "decently" was Blakkklansman, with 43K. Thankfully the local comedy bombed.

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DORY                                       INCREDIBLES 2

                                                 OD (Wed): 607K

OD (Thu): 500K                         Thursday: 369K

Friday: 750K                              Friday: 653K

Saturday: 1.7M                          Saturday: 1.477M

Sunday: 2.4M                            Sunday: 1.647M

OW: 5.55M (incl. previews)        OW: 4.2M (4.810 total gross)

Monday: 400K (-83%)               Monday: 276K (-83%)

Tuesday: 420K (+5%)                Tuesday: 265K (-4%)

Wednesday: 580K (+38%)         Wednesday: 316K (+19%)

Thursday: 290K (-50%)              Thursday: 205K (-35%)

Friday: 470K (+62%)                  Friday: 390K (+90%)

Saturday: 1.0M

Sunday: 1.12M

2nd Weekend: 3.04M (-46%)

2nd Monday: 180K

2nd Tuesday: 200K

2nd Wednesday: 290K

3rd Thursday: 137K

 

Now that's more like it! 40% drop from last Friday.

Of course the key days remain Saturday and Sunday, so we still have to wait and see before calling it a recovery.

Also, keep in mind that this weekend I2 will likely get the best hold of its entire run, given the non-existent competition and the nature of the market.

 

The Nun is second at 211K. Close to a 60% drop.

All other releases below 65K.

Edited by Omni
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1 hour ago, edroger3 said:

One Cinema show: 8 euro

One month on Netflix: 7,99 euro

Which explains why the local comedies (Zalone's excluded) never post big numbers anymore.

Also, in Italy the effect of Netflix and other sources has been particularly relevant because cinema is usually seen as an appendix of television.

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