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ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

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On 6/9/2019 at 3:50 AM, MinaTakla said:

I didn't expect Pets to be that low, but then again the first part didn't do that well in Italy as far as I recall (I think it did like half or third of the DM movies). Still, a 50 or 60% decline (maybe more?) in OW is v. disappointing, despite the differences in release calendars.

Curious, what's your prediction now for Minions 2 WW and in Italy specifically given the steep - and unexpected - decline of Pets 2? 

The first one opened with 4.6 millions and was a very strong success. Its total gross (13.3M) was quite close to Dory (15.1M) and Moana (14.3). It was actually only 25% below Despicable Me 3. Considering Pets 2 is looking at an opening no higher than 1.1M, we're talking about a 75%+ frefall on OW (and 70% at best on total gross).

A decline was always likely due to the different release date (in Italy, the first half of June has always been a terrible date to release movies - Wonder Woman opened in this slot and didn't even make it to 4 millions, vs the average 6/7 for big SH productions), but now this is clearly not its biggest trouble. My guess is that the original left close to nothing in those who saw it, which is kind of odd for an animated movie that surpassed the 2M admissions. The home video sales on Amazon were pretty poor. Moana grossed just 110K more tickets, but pretty much everyone knows it - while Pets has become (at least among people I know that actually remember it) "ah, that one about cats and dogs". The characters are 'cats and dogs' = they don't have a name = people don't care. That said, I thought the movie could just repeat what the original did: bored family goes to the theater to see some domestic animal doing stupid things - but it looks like very few are willing to spend dozens of euros at the beginning of the summer to see something that, frankly, they already saw.

 

About Minions 2, as long as they keep the traditional release date for the DM franchise (and they will), it'll be fine. Minions are still popular, so the relatively long gap may actually help. Should do 15+ here without many troubles. With current exchange rates, I see 800M WW-China (so anywhere between 850M and 1B).

 

 

 

08/06/19 (Saturday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 315.745 46.692
2 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 303.143 43.166
3 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 286.881 39.459
4 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 149.867 21.536
5 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 129.403 17.781
6 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 96.752 13.616
7 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 66.248 9.050
8 A MANO DISARMATA 06/06/2019 ITA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 48.444 7.296
9 DOLOR Y GLORIA 17/05/2019 ESP WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 39.428 5.493
10 JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3) 16/05/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 15.933 2.011

 

Everything in line with expectations: Pets 2 got the best jump, but even that was fairly below 100%. All holdovers down A LOT from last weekend, which already saw terrible holds.

 

Comparisons for Aladdin:

Beauty and the Beast > 703K (+112%)

Cinderella > 459K (+94%)

Aladdin > 303K (+62%)

Maleficent > 296K (+70%)

 

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8 hours ago, Omni said:

The first one opened with 4.6 millions and was a very strong success. Its total gross (13.3M) was quite close to Dory (15.1M) and Moana (14.3). It was actually only 25% below Despicable Me 3. Considering Pets 2 is looking at an opening no higher than 1.1M, we're talking about a 75%+ frefall on OW (and 70% at best on total gross).

A decline was always likely due to the different release date (in Italy, the first half of June has always been a terrible date to release movies - Wonder Woman opened in this slot and didn't even make it to 4 millions, vs the average 6/7 for big SH productions), but now this is clearly not its biggest trouble. My guess is that the original left close to nothing in those who saw it, which is kind of odd for an animated movie that surpassed the 2M admissions. The home video sales on Amazon were pretty poor. Moana grossed just 110K more tickets, but pretty much everyone knows it - while Pets has become (at least among people I know that actually remember it) "ah, that one about cats and dogs". The characters are 'cats and dogs' = they don't have a name = people don't care. That said, I thought the movie could just repeat what the original did: bored family goes to the theater to see some domestic animal doing stupid things - but it looks like very few are willing to spend dozens of euros at the beginning of the summer to see something that, frankly, they already saw.

 

About Minions 2, as long as they keep the traditional release date for the DM franchise (and they will), it'll be fine. Minions are still popular, so the relatively long gap may actually help. Should do 15+ here without many troubles. With current exchange rates, I see 800M WW-China (so anywhere between 850M and 1B).

 

 

 

Thanks for the thorough analysis. 

Edited by MinaTakla
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09/06/19 (Sunday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 406.170 60.076
2 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 344.263 49.542
3 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 276.131 38.450
4 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 162.789 23.594
5 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 125.598 17.391
6 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 95.317 13.631
7 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 61.213 8.360
8 A MANO DISARMATA 06/06/2019 ITA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 46.810 7.240
9 DOLOR Y GLORIA 17/05/2019 ESP WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 38.671 5.435
10 JULIET NAKED - TUTTA UN'ALTRA MUSICA 06/06/2019 GBR BIM DISTRIB. S.R.L. € 15.831 2.510

 

Nice Sunday rise for Pets 2, which manages to at least "win" the weekend. The Illumination flick and Aladdin (now ahead of 13M total) barely got ahead of 1M, while Dark Phoenix failed to even reach that mark - and despite that it still has a chance to overtake Godzilla.

 

Comparisons for Aladdin:

Beauty and the Beast > 1.00M (+42%)

Maleficent > 646K (+118%) > bad weather across Italy

Cinderella > 575K (+25%)

Aladdin > 344K (+14%)

 

Weekend recap later.

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WEEKEND ACTUALS 6-9 JUNE

- all in million € -

 

RANK MOVIE WEEKEND GROSS HOLD TOTAL GROSS PROJECTED GROSS
1 The Secret Life of Pets 2 1.03 NEW 1.03 3.80
2 Aladdin 1.00 -64% 13.05 14.80
3 X-Men: Dark Phoenix 0.91 NEW 0.91 2.10
4 Il Traditore (It) 0.46 -51% 3.58 4.50
5

Godzilla 2: KOTM

0.39 -61% 1.70 2.20
6 Rocketman 0.29

-51%

1.22 1.70
7 Polaroid 0.20 NEW 0.20 0.50
8 A Mano Disarmata (It) 0.14 NEW 0.14 0.30
9 Dolor y Gloria 0.11 -62% 2.82 3.00
10 John Wick 3 0.04 -81% 3.13 3.20

 

 

For the first time since Endgame opened, the weekend is down (-12.83%) from the same weekend last year. 2019, though, is above 2018 by 5.38%.

 

Two new blockbusters and a strong holdover should have been more than enough to beat a weekend (last year's) where Jurassic World 2 opened #1 in a wasteland and without doing gangfire business (3.6M OW). But everything went wrong.

 

Pets 2 is clearly the biggest loser of this weekend, likely one of the biggest failures I've ever seen. Reminds me for Alice Through the Looking Glass, which lost more than 75% of the origial's audience, but in that case the original was a huge phenomenon (as I often said, the 3rd Hollywood film of all time - by Cinetel's incomplete numbers - behind only Avatar and Titanic), so it absolutely had to drop big. In this case, we have a strong animated hit going from 4.6M OW to 1M OW. A drop of 78%. I think that is (and will be) the worst OW-to-OW retention in any country for this movie. The Grinch, while disappointing, still opened 80% higher than this. While legs should be pretty strong (no competition until TS4 in late June + summer weekdays), a poor 4M total gross is the best the film could hope for.

 

Dark Phoenix did very bad, and will become the lowest grossing movie of the franchise, as well as one of the lowest grossing SH movies of the last two decades.

 

Aladdin fell very very hard. Still, I believe it will come pretty close to Cinderella's 15M gross, and overtake Maleficent's 14M with ease.

 

(I'm a bit in a hurry, so I'm done for now).

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10/06/19 (Monday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 126.826 21.449
2 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 118.454 19.048
3 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 117.497 19.470
4 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 44.106 7.602
5 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 43.281 7.015
6 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 33.439 5.238
7 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 31.492 5.553
8 A MANO DISARMATA 06/06/2019 ITA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 13.548 2.528
9 DOLOR Y GLORIA 17/05/2019 ESP WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 8.903 1.487
10 AVENGERS: ENDGAME 24/04/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 8.497 2.159

 

The absolute numbers are awful, but the % drops are helped by summer holidays (which last for 3 full months in Italy).

Endgame back in the top 10 thanks to another couple of days (yesterday and today) with discount tickets and increased number of showings.

 

Comparisons for Aladdin:

 

3rd Weekends

Beauty and the Beast > 2.29M (-51%) // 17.67M // 20.5M total

Cinderella > 1.47M (-60%) // 12.63M // 15.0M total

Maleficent > 1.30M (-13%) // 10.89M // 14.0M total

Aladdin > 1.0M (-64%) // 13.05M // ?? total

 

Aladdin with the worst 3rd weekend of the bunch, but the total gross is still ahead of Cinderella. Maleficent is locked to go down.

 

3rd Mondays

Maleficent > 165K (-74.5%)

Beauty and the Beast > 130K (-87%)

Cinderella > 118K (-79.5%)

Aladdin > 117K (-66%)

 

Late legs for Maleficent were just great, while Beauty and the Beast kind of freefell after its 3rd weekend (not like it's an uncommon thing here).

 

 

This Thursday...basically no release. We have Beautiful Boy, The Dead don't Die, local mocie (and probable flop) Il Grande Salto and some random limited releases. The top 3 movies will try to take advantage of that.

 

Edited by Omni
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11/06/19 (Tuesday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 129.200 22.670
2 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 125.711 21.983
3 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 112.283 18.681
4 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 47.937 8.430
5 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 40.486 6.534
6 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 31.672 5.230
7 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 31.126 5.285
8 ROYAL OPERA HOUSE 2018-2019 15/10/2018 GBR NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A. € 25.984 2.383
9 A MANO DISARMATA 06/06/2019 ITA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 15.211 2.830
10 DOLOR Y GLORIA 17/05/2019 ESP WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 11.398 2.045

 

Aladdin back to #2. Dark Phoenix could have held worse.

 

Maleficent > 168K (+2%)

Aladdin > 126K (+7%)

Cinderella > 118K (+0%)

 

Can't find BatB's actual number, but it should be around 150/160K. Also, yesterday I pasted BatB's Thursday number instead of its Monday, which was just skipped by the source I get the numbers from. Fixed.

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12/06/19 (Wednesday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 151.874 27.857
2 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 132.894 24.539
3 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 129.424 23.296
4 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 51.729 9.835
5 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 47.548 8.420
6 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 37.933 7.091
7 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 33.489 5.988
8 A MANO DISARMATA 06/06/2019 ITA EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A. € 17.926 3.528
9 DOLOR Y GLORIA 17/05/2019 ESP WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 12.124 2.309
10 JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3) 16/05/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 6.135 1.031

 

Pets 2 poised for a great hold this weekend.

Kind of weak for Aladdin this time. It's at 13.45M right before its 4th weekend. Needs a sub-50% (which should happen - but who knows) drop to still have a realistic chance against Cinderella (15M).

 

Beauty and the Beast > 193K (+20% or so)

Maleficent > 164K (-2%)

Cinderella > 163K (+39%)

Aladdin > 133K (+5%)

Edited by Omni
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13/06/19 (Thursday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 96.151 16.294
2 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 87.455 14.079
3 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 79.739 13.234
4 I MORTI NON MUOIONO (THE DEAD DON'T DIE) 13/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 44.521 7.070
5 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 31.609 5.255
6 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 26.512 4.216
7 IL GRANDE SALTO 13/06/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 18.795 3.323
8 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 18.429 3.009
9 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 17.461 2.762
10 BEAUTIFUL BOY 13/06/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 9.945 1.733

 

All the openers failed. Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix held well, especially the former. Aladdin, on the other hand, is running out of audience. But it's totally normal for a movie in its 4th week to hold better than new moviews here.

 

Maleficent > 103K (-37%)

Cinderella > 102K (-37.5%)

Beauty and the Beast > 88K (-54%)

Aladdin > 80K (-40%)

 

Pets is probably the only movie this weekend that will go above 100K admissions. The magic of summer!

 

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14/06/19 (Friday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 116.635 19.070
2 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 106.141 16.268
3 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 100.335 15.623
4 I MORTI NON MUOIONO (THE DEAD DON'T DIE) 13/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 43.944 6.667
5 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 41.655 6.586
6 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 33.718 5.121
7 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 26.336 4.083
8 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 25.263 3.855
9 IL GRANDE SALTO 13/06/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 23.784 4.050
10 BEAUTIFUL BOY 13/06/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 12.796 2.149

 

Wasteland. Most increases in the 20/30% range, The Dead Don't Die even achieved a phenomenal DROP on the Friday after a pathetical OD.

 

Beauty and the Beast > 125K (+52%)

Cinderella > 116K (+14%) > weekdays inflated by Easter holidays

Aladdin > 100K (+26%)

Maleficent > 60K (-43%) > due to Italy vs Costa Rica, Football WC

 

Pets 2 headed for a 40% drop (625/650K), Dark Phoenix and Aladdin should be around 45% (525/550K). Godzilla 60% o.O

Edited by Omni
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1 hour ago, Omni said:

14/06/19 (Friday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 116.635 19.070
2 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 106.141 16.268
3 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 100.335 15.623
4 I MORTI NON MUOIONO (THE DEAD DON'T DIE) 13/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 43.944 6.667
5 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 41.655 6.586
6 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 33.718 5.121
7 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 26.336 4.083
8 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 25.263 3.855
9 IL GRANDE SALTO 13/06/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 23.784 4.050
10 BEAUTIFUL BOY 13/06/2019 USA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 12.796 2.149

 

Wasteland. Most increases in the 20/30% range, The Dead Don't Die even achieved a phenomenal DROP on the Friday after a pathetical OD.

 

Beauty and the Beast > 125K (+52%)

Cinderella > 116K (+14%) > weekdays inflated by Easter holidays

Aladdin > 100K (+26%)

Maleficent > 60K (-43%) > due to Italy vs Costa Rica, Football WC

 

Pets 2 headed for a 40% drop (625/650K), Dark Phoenix and Aladdin should be around 45% (525/550K). Godzilla 60% o.O

decent numbers for Aladdin ...???

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Could have been worse. Cinderella is still in play as long as the weekend is closer to 600K than 500K.

 

It will pass Maleficent in both gross and admissions tomorrow (5% chance), on Monday (60%) or on Tuesday (35%).

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15/06/19 (Saturday)

 

1 PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2) 06/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 223.317 33.823
2 X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX) 06/06/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 169.290 23.860
3 ALADDIN 22/05/2019 USA WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA € 167.396 24.332
4 IL TRADITORE 23/05/2019 ITA 01 DISTRIBUTION € 94.674 13.668
5 I MORTI NON MUOIONO (THE DEAD DON'T DIE) 13/06/2019 USA UNIVERSAL S.R.L. € 76.963 10.678
6 GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS) 30/05/2019 USA WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 60.518 8.506
7 IL GRANDE SALTO 13/06/2019 ITA MEDUSA FILM S.P.A. € 58.586 8.906
8 ROCKETMAN 29/05/2019 USA 20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A. € 45.246 6.366
9 POLAROID 06/06/2019 USA NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A. € 43.951 6.426
10 DOLOR Y GLORIA 17/05/2019 ESP WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A. € 28.533 4.053

 

Pretty strong increase for Pets 2. Sub-40% weekend drop very likely - may be close to 30% if today it gets to 275/300K.

Amazing jump for Il Traditore. Dark Phoenix and Aladdin unexciting.

 

Beauty and the Beast > 275K (+120%)

Cinderella > 223K (+92%)

Aladdin > 167K (+66%)

Maleficent > 155K (+158%) > highly deflated Friday

 

 

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