ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[pepsa]

9 hours ago, Bart Allen said:

Thanks @Justin4125 :3

 

Not trolling at all, I simply want to try and gauge where the international box-office where it may land in comparison, which is why we also used Endgame as well ~ I won't mention Mexico and India for obvious reasons ~ But I'll thank you for that super detailed post (which i do appreciate) :3

 

I think all members on the forum agree on the fact that the Joker way over did our expectation (most of em) that it had insane legs in many countries and that it did all that with out China is crazy good. Honestly we all think it did insane buisness and was boxoffice phenomon with it's legs.

But don't compare TROS with EG or Joker or any movie other than TLJ for the comming weeks and the reason is comparing movies with totaly different profilles don't help us project things. We have a movie that is a blueprint for this movie (TLJ), this makes it a lot easier to extrapolated the data.

 

Take this:

TLJ:  5.4m Italy, 7.2m Brazil, 14.4m Japan, 23.3m Germany, and 8.4m Russia

Joker: 6.9m Italy, 7.3m Brazil, 6.8m Japan, 8.9m Germany and 10.2m Russia

TROS: 4.8m Italy, 5.8m Brazil, 14.5m Japan, 18.5m Germany and 6.5m Russia

 

If we search for a trend with the Joker we get: -30% / -21% / +113% / +107% / -36% (BTW -50% equals 100% increase obv ) as you can see there is not really a trend (if I give more countries it will get worse) but you see it hard to find a trend in numbers. If I see these % it's hard to guess if the movie will end +50m over joker - 100m under Joker etc you just can't see it. + the a totaly different release date so it will behave differently.

 

Now take TLJ vs TROS trend and we get : -11% / -20% / +1% / -21% / -23%. Now taking these numbers in consideration, knowing they are released around the same period etc , it is pretty easy to see a trend, most are -20% some are up a tiny bit and some are down just 10% so you could make a guess that the drop would be around 17% and we follow boxoffice so we know market size so maybe more about 14% in these 5 markets.

 

And that the reason people are a bit frustrated with it because comparing it to random movies that will be around the same total like Joker, Toystory 4, Captain Marvel doesn't help us understand were TROS would be heading.

 

Gerneral rule of thumb is: If a movie is Asia heavy don't take a comp older 4 years (in general a comp that only 2 - 3 old is handy), are the movies you compare the same genre?, does the release date look the same? (same month or months that act similar), are they almost equaly big in gross (est for the new one ofc), same universe (helps sometimes) and last and most importantly if it has a a prequel  (and if that prequel opened around the same date always take this one ).

 

The Joker checks 2 of the 6 boxes = not a good comb

Toystory4: 2/6 boxes = bad comb

Captainmarvel: 2/6 boxes = bad comb

RogueOne: 5/6 boxes = good comb (make sure to check outliers here, trends for the franshise etc)

TLJ: 6/6 boxes = crazy good comb  

Endgame: 1/6 boxes = terrible comb

[fabiopazzo2]

1

STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)

18/12/2019

USA

WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA

€ 1.285.144

169.485

€ 3.844.773

506.087

[edroger3]

Saturday 21

 

SW9 is seing a 4M weekend. Tomorrow could lose the first place (daily) if Pinocchio work well (possible but non probable). F2 passes Aladdin to #4 in 2019. 

 

	Opening	WED	THR	FRI	SAT	SUN	Wkd	Week
Episode VII	16/12/2015	1.854	922	1.190	1.984	2.443	6.539	8.305
Episode VIII	13/12/2017	1.260	602	828	1.584	1.591	4.605	5.865
Episode IX	18/12/2019	1.184	651	725	1.284		2.660	3.844
Av.Endgame	24/04/2019	5.167	3.848	2.633	2.683	2.962	12.126	17.293
Joker	03/10/2019		1.033	1.242	2.113	1.885	6.273	6.273

 

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze	Incasso al 21/12/2019	Presenze al 21/12/2019
1	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 1.285.144	169.485	€ 3.844.773	506.087
2	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 832.527	122.824	€ 1.458.126	223.749
3	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 674.668	101.922	€ 5.259.512	846.310
4	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 496.700	71.243	€ 857.645	127.316
5	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 258.090	37.503	€ 15.681.202	2.445.020
6	LAST CHRISTMAS	19/12/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 228.446	32.274	€ 432.150	63.318
7	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 182.392	25.189	€ 3.081.662	480.150
8	L'IMMORTALE	05/12/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 101.235	13.993	€ 5.472.937	808.746
9	UN GIORNO DI PIOGGIA A NEW YORK (A RAINY DAY IN NEW YORK)	28/11/2019	USA	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 34.479	4.801	€ 3.074.988	481.545
10	PAW PATROL MIGHTY PUPS - IL FILM DEI SUPER CUCCIOLI	21/12/2019	CAN	ADLER ENTERTAINMENT S.R.L.	€ 33.138	5.004	€ 33.138	5.004

[edroger3]

Sunday 22 - Pre-Christmas weekend +35% vs last year. SW9 as predicted, F2 still in top 5, both with strong competition from local movies. Among those Pinocchio worse than I expected. Next week will be very interesting (four holy-days on seven and school-out). Weìll see how Disney's work.

 

Weekend

 

1-Star Wars 9     - 4.103

2-Pinocchio       - 2.655

3-Il Primo Natale - 2.069 -34

4-La Dea Fortuna  - 1.420

5-Frozen 2        -   820 -50

 

	Opening	WED	THR	FRI	SAT	SUN	Wkd	Week
Episode VII	16/12/2015	1.854	922	1.190	1.984	2.443	6.539	8.305
Episode VIII	13/12/2017	1.260	602	828	1.584	1.591	4.605	5.865
Episode IX	18/12/2019	1.184	651	725	1.311	1.416	4.103	5.287
Av.Endgame	24/04/2019	5.167	3.848	2.633	2.683	2.962	12.126	17.293
Joker	03/10/2019		1.033	1.242	2.113	1.885	6.273	6.273

 

1	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 1.416.552	188.761	€ 5.287.123	698.333
2	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 1.178.561	174.744	€ 2.655.261	401.390
3	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 903.118	138.587	€ 6.188.158	988.857
4	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 557.466	80.390	€ 1.420.480	208.456
5	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 398.575	59.138	€ 16.093.672	2.506.211
6	LAST CHRISTMAS	19/12/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 224.527	32.172	€ 662.071	96.246
7	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 169.110	23.542	€ 3.254.230	504.169

[edroger3]

Monday 23 - Good hold for SW -36 (italians all over -50). F2 +110 vs LW but -50 vs SUN.

 

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze	Incasso al 23/12/2019	Presenze al 23/12/2019
1	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 911.701	128.260	€ 6.225.790	830.412
2	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 530.727	85.325	€ 3.215.356	491.099
3	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 369.677	60.448	€ 6.571.994	1.051.438
4	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 219.208	34.114	€ 1.649.936	244.122
5	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 189.456	30.215	€ 16.291.778	2.537.793
6	LAST CHRISTMAS	19/12/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 128.148	19.800	€ 795.898	116.879
7	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 91.432	13.750	€ 3.346.579	518.064

Edited December 24, 2019 by edroger3

[titanic2187]

Not a meaningful come back for Benigni's career 

[edroger3]

4 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Not a meaningful come back for Benigni's career 

Benigni's career really ended with his unlucky version of "Pinocchio" in 2002, then he made another forgettable movie in 2004 and was in Woody Allen's "To Rome with Love" in 2012. However, in past years, he have had a more successful career in TV and live show.

[edroger3]

Merry Christmas to everyone.

 

Tuesday 24 - Christmas Eve traditionally a weak day. F2 only movie flat vs LW.

 

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze	Incasso al 24/12/2019	Presenze al 24/12/2019
1	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 298.712	40.659	€ 6.534.403	872.426
2	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 244.849	36.388	€ 3.464.147	528.045
3	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 169.611	25.063	€ 6.745.895	1.077.120
4	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 102.375	15.350	€ 16.398.100	2.553.774
5	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 81.071	11.870	€ 1.733.240	256.317
6	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 59.276	8.311	€ 3.406.865	526.518

[edroger3]

Christmas Day

 

Very strong competition overall but only +10% vs LY. A movie with the word "Christmas" (Natale) in title obviously wins. 

 

Jumanji start a bit lower than the predecessor, that grossed 1.230 in 1st of January (that is a similar day) and ended to 10M and cents. 

 

SW lose a 50% from OD which is worse than it seems cause the workday vs holiday factor. 

 

F2 is dead and will end a bit under F1 (19.700 - 2,95M admissions), probably the only market in world (with Japan) in which F2 don't pass F1 at least in admissions or LC. A this point I have to admit that the release date in late November have been a big mistake.

 

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze	Incasso al 25/12/2019	Presenze al 25/12/2019
1	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 1.164.118	166.641	€ 7.915.828	1.244.637
2	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 1.140.617	159.297	€ 4.610.645	688.203
3	JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL	25/12/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 1.098.532	143.771	€ 1.098.532	143.771
4	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 624.259	79.991	€ 7.163.394	953.009
5	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 437.937	59.970	€ 2.172.852	316.563
6	LAST CHRISTMAS	19/12/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 227.972	30.831	€ 1.076.192	155.311
7	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 152.778	21.304	€ 16.553.163	2.575.424
8	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 123.765	15.886	€ 3.531.752	542.545
9	SPIE SOTTO COPERTURA (SPIES IN DISGUISE)	25/12/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 63.795	9.011	€ 63.795	9.011
10	L'IMMORTALE	05/12/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 47.004	5.799	€ 5.710.470	841.131

[edroger3]

26 December

 

Very big numbers in one of the three biggest boxoffice days of year (Boxing day, first of January and the Monday after Easter). Vs Christmas we see the same increase in top 3 (about +60%), SW +100 (as vs LW, -10% vs TLJ), F2 +175% (+600% vs LW but this number does not count much. Damn Disney, with the same release date of F1 yesterday would been 4M+). Spies in Disguise very low despite strong marketing. Day 2 of Jumanji is not comparable vs the predecessor (was a workday) but very good. 

 

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze	Incasso al 26/12/2019	Presenze al 26/12/2019
1	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 1.897.667	271.706	€ 6.507.299	959.906
2	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 1.751.919	254.441	€ 9.680.504	1.501.359
3	JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL	25/12/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 1.665.305	222.743	€ 2.756.349	365.846
4	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 1.175.193	152.779	€ 8.335.454	1.105.806
5	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 760.460	105.255	€ 2.934.674	422.096
6	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 419.236	58.894	€ 16.973.045	2.634.436
7	LAST CHRISTMAS	19/12/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 337.206	46.344	€ 1.412.569	201.593
8	SPIE SOTTO COPERTURA (SPIES IN DISGUISE)	25/12/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 171.837	24.610	€ 235.739	33.639
9	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 165.063	21.609	€ 3.697.343	564.220
10	L'IMMORTALE	05/12/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 57.785	7.287	€ 5.768.254	848.418

[fabiopazzo2]

Very disappointing for Frozen 2

[edroger3]

1 hour ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Very disappointing for Frozen 2

I haven't all international number yet for week 5, but I still think Italy will be the only market (with Japan, pending Netherland and Belgium) in which F2 finish with less admissions or LC gross than F1. By the way Disney (via IMDBpro/BOM) has bigger numbers than Cinetel, 16,9 (18,6M$ at 0,9 ER) vs 16,1 by Sunday.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, edroger3 said:

I haven't all international number yet for week 5, but I still think Italy will be the only market (with Japan, pending Netherland and Belgium) in which F2 finish with less admissions or LC gross than F1. By the way Disney (via IMDBpro/BOM) has bigger numbers than Cinetel, 16,9 (18,6M$ at 0,9 ER) vs 16,1 by Sunday.

Belgium will go over easily, same for the Netherlands, No doubt in my mind!

Edited December 27, 2019 by pepsa

[fabiopazzo2]

1 hour ago, edroger3 said:

I haven't all international number yet for week 5, but I still think Italy will be the only market (with Japan, pending Netherland and Belgium) in which F2 finish with less admissions or LC gross than F1. By the way Disney (via IMDBpro/BOM) has bigger numbers than Cinetel, 16,9 (18,6M$ at 0,9 ER) vs 16,1 by Sunday.

Maybe Frozen 2 was due to be released during these days

 

any prediction for Tolo Tolo?

easily over EG(first day of course), maybe 6,5/7M €?!

[edroger3]

8 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Maybe Frozen 2 was due to be released during these days

 

any prediction for Tolo Tolo?

easily over EG(first day of course), maybe 6,5/7M €?!

I have no idea. (I haven't ever see any single minute of Zalone's movies)

 

Pros:  Great pre-launch word of mouth (with "racism" rant included). Strongest italian cinema brand.

Cons: Great pre-launch word of mouth (with "racism" rant included). Stronger local competition than Quo vado.

 

First week (Fri-Thr) of Quo Vado (2016) 

 

Day	Daily	Total
1-gen	6.857	6.857
2-gen	7.121	13.978
3-gen	8.270	22.248
4-gen	4.427	26.675
5-gen	4.555	31.230
6-gen	6.005	37.235
7-gen	1.588	38.823

Edited December 27, 2019 by edroger3

[LPLC]

12 hours ago, pepsa said:

Belgium will go over easily, same for the Netherlands, No doubt in my mind!

How much for TROS and Frozen 2 for final cume in Belgium ? And what can we expect about Italy ? Something like $20M-$22M for both TROS and Frozen 2 ?

[edroger3]

Friday 27

 

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze	Incasso al 27/12/2019	Presenze al 27/12/2019
1	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 922.158	144.677	€ 7.447.884	1.107.435
2	JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL	25/12/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 907.277	133.314	€ 3.681.872	501.590
3	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 758.226	119.092	€ 10.462.523	1.624.169
4	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 747.440	103.946	€ 9.088.433	1.210.553
5	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 442.306	66.704	€ 3.393.905	491.328
6	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 249.478	38.426	€ 17.225.630	2.673.298
7	LAST CHRISTMAS	19/12/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 159.140	23.738	€ 1.574.623	225.690
8	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 113.313	16.295	€ 3.811.664	580.644
9	SPIE SOTTO COPERTURA (SPIES IN DISGUISE)	25/12/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 88.386	14.500	€ 325.973	48.378
10	L'IMMORTALE	05/12/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 42.915	5.871	€ 5.811.170	854.289

[Bart Allen]

Wow it dropped below Pinocchio and Jumanji 3 ~

[edroger3]

Saturday 28

SW -48%

Italians + 30/35%

F2 flat

 

Other facts:

 

IL PRIMO NATALE is the first local movie over 10M since 2 years. The last movie that did it was by the same actors/directors duo on February 2017.

 

First Benigni's Pinocchio did 26,2M€ in 2002. Problably the double of 2019 movie.  

 

 

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze	Incasso al 28/12/2019	Presenze al 28/12/2019
1	JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL	25/12/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 1.142.526	160.110	€ 4.826.073	661.916
2	PINOCCHIO	19/12/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 1.126.842	167.206	€ 8.577.459	1.275.079
3	IL PRIMO NATALE	12/12/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 932.716	138.339	€ 11.397.706	1.762.953
4	STAR WARS: L'ASCESA DI SKYWALKER (STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER)	18/12/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 671.249	89.809	€ 9.760.081	1.300.426
5	LA DEA FORTUNA	19/12/2019	ITA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 594.648	84.751	€ 3.991.162	576.395
6	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 259.241	37.614	€ 17.488.192	2.711.478
7	LAST CHRISTMAS	19/12/2019	GBR	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 193.253	27.682	€ 1.771.604	253.888
8	CENA CON DELITTO - KNIVES OUT	05/12/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 161.378	22.229	€ 3.973.042	602.873
9	SPIE SOTTO COPERTURA (SPIES IN DISGUISE)	25/12/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 113.184	17.487	€ 439.157	65.865
10	L'IMMORTALE	05/12/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 45.275	5.858	€ 5.857.268	860.258

[PKMLover]

So Frozen 2 life officially ended in Italy. Sad