ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[Nero]

23 hours ago, Omni said:

And how did you reach that conclusion?

By being a troll and trolling 

[Omni]

22 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

You guys are a funny market 😛 

Actually, The Lion King is the real highest grossing non-Cameron movie of all time. But unfortunately in Italy we always have 2 different sets of numbers, as you may have already read: the ones you find on the sites (official, but they currently only take into account like 95%; it was like 50% back in the mid/early-90's) and those that are usually nowhere to be found, collected by Siae with all data from all theaters.

 

Talk about funny

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, Omni said:

Actually, The Lion King is the real highest grossing non-Cameron movie of all time. But unfortunately in Italy we always have 2 different sets of numbers, as you may have already read: the ones you find on the sites (official, but they currently only take into account like 95%; it was like 50% back in the mid/early-90's) and those that are usually nowhere to be found, collected by Siae with all data from all theaters.

 

Talk about funny

Do you think TLK 2019 will break out in Italy?

[titanic2187]

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze
1	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 369.467	56.841
2	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 220.804	32.069
3	TED BUNDY - FASCINO CRIMINALE (EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL AND VILE)	09/05/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 92.832	14.295
4	PET SEMATARY	09/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 88.780	13.266
5	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 57.995	9.415
6	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 30.378	4.980
7	RED JOAN	09/05/2019	GBR	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 28.121	4.806
8	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 20.864	3.345
9	IL GRANDE SPIRITO	09/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 17.409	3.067
10	I FRATELLI SISTERS (THE SISTERS BROTHERS)	02/05/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 11.415	1.861

 

[Omni]

So Pika is already showing signs of fronloadness, with less than a 20% increase from Thursday. The rainy weekend will save it (just like it will save Endgame too), but at this point sub-3M OW is almost guaranteed and sub-2.5M is a 50/50.

Friday rises have been kind of weak all around though - maybe Saturday will surprise with 150/200% bumps.

 

18 hours ago, UserHN said:

Do you think TLK 2019 will break out in Italy?

It depends on what you mean with break out. It certainly is very likely to pass the 20M mark as Disney live actions are very popular here:

 

Alice in Wonderland > 11.1M OW // 30.4M total (the times of 3D craze)

Beauty and the Beast > 6.9M OW // 20.5M total

Cinderella > 5.1M OW // 15.0M total

Maleficent > 5.0M OW // 14.0M total

Mary Poppins > 2.7M OW // 12.1M total

Dumbo > 3.3M OW // 11.2M total

The Jungle Book > 3.0M OW // 10.4M total

(Nutcracker > 4.3M OW // 9.4M total)

Oz the Great and Powerful > 2.9M OW // 8.1M total

 

On one hand you could say 20M is pretty much locked, and even 25+ has a good chance of happening.

On the other hand, just look at the positions of Dumbo abd TJB compared to the top 5. Having a female as a lead and/or a big name behind the project really helps here, and in fact all the top 5 is composed of female-driven movies, sometimes with the help of some huge name (Burton+Depp / Emma Watson / Angelina Jolie) which helps giving the film an aura of event. You could say that the lower grosses of Dumbo and Oz aren't alarming, as the first did poorly WW and the second was a hard sell in all non-anglosaxon markets. Even if we take this, and ignore that Nutcracker (female-driven+sort of princess) incredibly succeded while it bombed in all the other markets) - we have The Jungle Book. It's the 2nd highest grossing LA remake WW, and easily too, yet it's on the bottom of the list. And it's also pretty similar to The Lion King under many aspects.

Overall, it TLK really makes huge numbers (close to 30M) it will be just a proof of how insanely strong the name is. On its favour it has the release date, the same that allowed freaking HT3 to pass the 12M mark and make more than I2, the same that gave 23+ to the Minions and huge grosses to many family products.

 

Fun fact: if it sells the same amount of tickets the animated version sold, it will finish within 85% of Avatar's gross (55M+).

 

 

[Nakamura]

3 minutes ago, Omni said:

So Pika is already showing signs of fronloadness, with less than a 20% increase from Thursday. The rainy weekend will save it (just like it will save Endgame too), but at this point sub-3M OW is almost guaranteed and sub-2.5M is a 50/50.

Friday rises have been kind of weak all around though - maybe Saturday will surprise with 150/200% bumps.

 

It depends on what you mean with break out. It certainly is very likely to pass the 20M mark as Disney live actions are very popular here:

 

Alice in Wonderland > 11.1M OW // 30.4M total (the times of 3D craze)

Beauty and the Beast > 6.9M OW // 20.5M total

Cinderella > 5.1M OW // 15.0M total

Maleficent > 5.0M OW // 14.0M total

Mary Poppins > 2.7M OW // 12.1M total

Dumbo > 3.3M OW // 11.2M total

The Jungle Book > 3.0M OW // 10.4M total

(Nutcracker > 4.3M OW // 9.4M total)

Oz the Great and Powerful > 2.9M OW // 8.1M total

 

On one hand you could say 20M is pretty much locked, and even 25+ has a good chance of happening.

On the other hand, just look at the positions of Dumbo abd TJB compared to the top 5. Having a female as a lead and/or a big name behind the project really helps here, and in fact all the top 5 is composed of female-driven movies, sometimes with the help of some huge name (Burton+Depp / Emma Watson / Angelina Jolie) which helps giving the film an aura of event. You could say that the lower grosses of Dumbo and Oz aren't alarming, as the first did poorly WW and the second was a hard sell in all non-anglosaxon markets. Even if we take this, and ignore that Nutcracker (female-driven+sort of princess) incredibly succeded while it bombed in all the other markets) - we have The Jungle Book. It's the 2nd highest grossing LA remake WW, and easily too, yet it's on the bottom of the list. And it's also pretty similar to The Lion King under many aspects.

Overall, it TLK really makes huge numbers (close to 30M) it will be just a proof of how insanely strong the name is. On its favour it has the release date, the same that allowed freaking HT3 to pass the 12M mark and make more than I2, the same that gave 23+ to the Minions and huge grosses to many family products.

 

Fun fact: if it sells the same amount of tickets the animated version sold, it will finish within 85% of Avatar's gross (55M+).

 

 

AEG is $30.3M. How far do you think it can go further? 

[Omni]

Its dailies have been basically on par with IW despite the 25/30% difference of their respective 2nd weekends. On normal conditions EG would be pretty certain to fail to get to 30M euros (34M dollars or so) but considering the good weather is only coming in like 10 days it should just get there.

29.55 million euros total if it just follows IW for the rest of its run. Needs to find an extra 800K to beat Alice in Wonderland - ergo, it needs to make more than half a million on both Saturday and Sunday to still have a chance. And even if it does, it won't be easy.

[titanic2187]

Pos.	Titolo	Prima Progr.	Nazione	Distribuzione	Incasso	Presenze
1	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 836.544	120.339
2	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 485.423	65.456
3	TED BUNDY - FASCINO CRIMINALE (EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL AND VILE)	09/05/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 218.875	30.339
4	PET SEMATARY	09/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 212.376	28.953
5	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 158.109	23.237
6	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 92.872	13.181
7	RED JOAN	09/05/2019	GBR	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 90.783	13.685
8	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 62.411	8.765
9	IL GRANDE SPIRITO	09/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 58.132	9.075
10	TUTTI PAZZI A TEL AVIV (TEL AVIV ON FIRE)	09/05/2019	LUX	ACADEMY TWO DISTR. S.R.L.	€ 30.551	4.606

[Omni]

Overall, Italy is one of the markets where Pokemon is performing more than decently. Should end up with a respectable 5/6M total (the target - among family films that didn't live up to their potential - is The Grinch's 5.85M; DP needs a Sunday above 1M to have a chance).

 

Endgame has been helped by bad weather once more, yet that wasn't enough to let it avoid another drop in the mid-high 60's. The movie is clearly running out of audience.

Mon > 243K vs 249K

Tue > 239K (-2%) vs 267K (+8%)

Wed > 206K (-14%) vs 269K (+1%)

Thu > 156 (-24%) vs 153K (-43%)

Fri > 222K (+42%) vs 221K (+43%)

Sat > 406K (+83%) vs 485K (+120%)

Sun > 350K (-14%)

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.63 (720K below Alice)

 

EG is not the exception, though. Bad holds all around.

[fabiopazzo2]

Well pokemon is a strong brand here

[Nova]

58 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

Well pokemon is a strong brand here

Pokémon is a strong brand in Latin America and Asia too. That didn’t stop it from flopping there  Thank god Italy has taste 

[Ed Raven]

14 hours ago, Nova said:

Pokémon is a strong brand in Latin America and Asia too. That didn’t stop it from flopping there  Thank god Italy has taste 

Italy has SUCH bad taste (in movies) I'm ashamed of it. This film was pretty much garbage. The audience laughed when I just wanted to tear my eyes apart. Yet another awful movie we Italians decide to spend money on only cause it looks cute and/or the story is childish and brings back memories.

And then we complain about Avatar's derivativeness...

Edited May 12, 2019 by Ed Raven

[Zamor]

4 hours ago, Ed Raven said:

Italy has SUCH bad taste (on movies) I'm ashamed of it. 

 

Io mi vergognerei più di aver scritto sta cosa. 

E' un mercato in linea con tutto il resto del mondo. Allora tutto il mondo ha gusti di merda. Ma qua parliamo con lo spettatore alpha.

[Ed Raven]

13 minutes ago, Zamor said:

 

Io mi vergognerei più di aver scritto sta cosa. 

E' un mercato in linea con tutto il resto del mondo. Allora tutto il mondo ha gusti di merda. Ma qua parliamo con lo spettatore alpha.

 

No, I should not be ashamed of what I wrote. At least I did it so everybody here could understand me, without hiding behind a foreign (to the board) language. Are you afraid of being banned?

Respect my opinion. Italy has WORSE taste in movies then other similar countries, for me this is a fact. Or if you prefer we could say that Italians' taste in movies hasn't evolved. We expect and can only process/understand the same old sh*t. We like cheap thrills. 

[Omni]

Yeah, that response in Italian was pure slatternly. If you need that, just use a pm.

 

Let's just look at the top 10 for the last seasons:

 

2017-18

Infinity War

Despicable Me 3

Star Wars 8

Murder on the Orient Express

It

Fifty Shades Freed

Wonder

Coco

Jurassic World 2

Jumanj

 

2016-17

Beauty and the Beast

Dory

Fifty Shades Darker

Fantastic Beasts

Fast & Furious 8

Oceania

Pets

Pirates 5

Inferno

Suicide Squad

 

2015-16

Quo Vado (It)

Inside Out

Star Wars 7

Minions

Perfetti Sconosciuti (It)

Revenant

Spectre

Civil War

Zootopia

Bridge of Spies

 

Some evidence: most of the titles are obviously in line with the rest of the world, but some do really look "out of place". Murder on the Orient Express, The Fifty Shades, Inferno, Inside Out, Revenant, Bridge of Spies. What do they mean?

First: the market has some originality - it doesn't strictly follows the superhero craze (and you can count the really good sh movies on just one hand - people who say otherwise are clearly very easy to be pleased) and can potentially put a freaking thriller or detective film at the same level of a Civil War or Jurassic World 2.

Second: the market has its fixations - dull love stories filled with passion (see After's recent success), Disney princesses (Cinderella was a huge success, Oceania > BH6, Zootopia, Jungle Book, I2...), local comedies starring a few key actors...

Third: the market is highly provincial, as most of the surprises come from movies that have a "big name" -> Bridge of Spies had Spielberg+Hanks, Revenant had DiCaprio, Wonder had Julia Roberts, most Disney remakes have the status; regarding this, Ed Raven is right about Italian tastes showing little evolution: they like the old things and the old great actors; also, if a movie is not part of a brand, or hasn't a big name or is not perceived as an event, it's just f****d (see Alita)

Overall, I wouldn't really say tastes here are worse than average. One could say that it's one of the few markets where an Oscar winner can beat a 1B+ WW Marvel movie, though sometimes it just look like a market that's going on by inertia. And it would be much more interesting to follow if it made double the bland grosses it actually makes.

 

 

12/05/19 (Sunday)

 

1	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 850.613	124.976
2	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 479.270	65.565
3	TED BUNDY - FASCINO CRIMINALE (EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL AND VILE)	09/05/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 211.163	29.950
4	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 191.990	28.530
5	PET SEMATARY	09/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 181.547	25.438
6	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 105.410	15.428
7	RED JOAN	09/05/2019	GBR	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 102.739	15.632
8	IL GRANDE SPIRITO	09/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 78.582	12.470
9	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 66.718	9.665
10	WONDER PARK	11/04/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 45.739	7.314

 

Sunday was about flat for both Pikachu and Endgame. Expected with the bad weather.

[Omni]

WEEKEND ACTUALS 9-12 MAY

- all in million € -

 

RANK	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	PROJECTED GROSS
1	Detective Pikachu	2.39	NEW	2.39	5.50
2	Avengers: Endgame	1.35	-66%	28.30	30.00
3	Extremely Wicked, Shockingly Evil and Vile	0.59	NEW	0.59	1.40
4	Pet Sematary	0.56	NEW	0.56	1.30
5	Stan & Ollie	0.45	-47%	1.71	2.50
6	Ma Cosa ci Dice il Cervello (It)	0.25	-60%	4.80	5.00
7	Red Joan (GB)	0.24	NEW	0.24	0.50
8	Il Grande Spirito (It)	0.17	NEW	0.17	0.40
9	Hotel Mumbai	0.17	-60%	0.84	1.00
10	Jianghu ernü (Ch, Fr, Jp)	0.08	NEW	0.08	0.20

 

The lead over 2018 is getting stronger, and should confortably be above 5% by the end of the summer (+10% or more is actually quite likely)

It's up 41.0% from the same weekend last year. 2019 is now above 2018: +0.79%.

 

Detective Pikachu didn't do badly, but it certainly didn't set the BO on fire. It acted only partially like a family movie, and today's number will tell if it really screws young or if it's attracting a big bunch of teens as the average ticket price and the daily pattern seem to suggest. It should be able to make some money before Aladdin crushes it in 9 days.

 

Endgame got a pretty bad hold, though once again this is not much worse than what the rest got. It's performing weakly on weekdays (normal for a 3-hours movie) and stronger on Sat+Sun, but apparently not strong enough to end Alice in Wonderland's reign. Even the 30M mark isn't looking too certain and needs a decent hold next weekend (which is doable). Bohemian Rhapsody will be passed during Sunday.

 

IW vs EG

Mon > 243K vs 249K

Tue > 239K (-2%) vs 267K (+8%)

Wed > 206K (-14%) vs 269K (+1%)

Thu > 156 (-24%) vs 153K (-43%)

Fri > 222K (+42%) vs 221K (+43%)

Sat > 406K (+83%) vs 485K (+120%)

Sun > 350K (-14%) vs 479K (-1%)

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.76 (590K below Alice)

 

Everything else is so weak it's not even worth mentioning. Except Jianghu ernu (Japan+China+France production) coming out of nowhere and somehow managing to enter the top 10.

 

The kids films dropped like stones. Dumbo's run is basically over (37K weekend). It will pass 11.1M today but won't do it to 11.2M. Still pretty good, though.

 

This week:

* John Wick 3 > don't expect anything great for it: the first one grossed 1.4M euros, the second 1.8M; every penny above 1 million OW is good

* The Hustle > typical movie to watch if you're bored and there's nothing else out: should open between 0.5 and 1.0 and then drop quickly

* Almodovars's Dolor y Gloria and a bunch of other minor products (Italian comedy included)

 

 

 

[Omni]

13/05/19 (Monday)

 

1	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 159.490	27.224
2	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 91.722	14.370
3	TED BUNDY - FASCINO CRIMINALE (EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL AND VILE)	09/05/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 50.960	8.612
4	PET SEMATARY	09/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 47.559	8.028
5	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 28.601	5.312
6	5 CM AL SECONDO (BYOSOKU 5 SENCHIMETORU)	13/05/2019	JPN	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 28.434	3.045
7	RED JOAN	09/05/2019	GBR	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 14.608	2.793
8	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 11.445	1.989
9	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 11.347	2.098
10	IL GRANDE SPIRITO	09/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 9.466	1.868

 

Kind of an unusual Monday for Detective Pikachu: it drops much softer than what kids movies normally do, but has an average ticket price below 6 euros, which is typical of kids movies.

 

IW vs EG

Mon > 109K (-69%) vs 92K (-82%)

Tue > 92K

Wed > 94K

Thu > 56K

Fri > 82K

Sat > 166K

Sun > 145K

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.74 (610K below Alice)

 

 

[Omni]

14/05/19 (Tuesday)

 

1	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 156.780	26.969
2	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 92.862	14.911
3	TED BUNDY - FASCINO CRIMINALE (EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL AND VILE)	09/05/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 60.701	10.740
4	PET SEMATARY	09/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 50.736	8.737
5	5 CM AL SECONDO (BYOSOKU 5 SENCHIMETORU)	13/05/2019	JPN	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 39.166	4.176
6	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 31.565	5.966
7	RED JOAN	09/05/2019	GBR	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 15.743	3.147
8	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 12.280	2.263
9	IL GRANDE SPIRITO	09/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 11.861	2.309
10	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 11.714	2.179

 

I must say Pikachu's dailies are so far pretty encouraging. I was thinking of a Marvel-type run in terms of legs, but it may just drop in the mid-low 40's this weekend. Still persuaded the fall will be closer to 50% though.

 

Avengers remained about flat. The length of the movie is hurting its weekdays, so despite the much higher 3rd weekend, it's gaining nothing from Infinity War.

 

IW vs EG

Mon > 109K (-69%) vs 92K (-82%)

Tue > 92K (-16%) vs 93K (+1%)

Wed > 94K

Thu > 56K

Fri > 82K

Sat > 166K

Sun > 145K

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.74 (610K below Alice)

 

[Omni]

2019 RANKINGS

 

1	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 28.495.835	3.831.036
2	DUMBO	28/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 11.110.394	1.984.419
3	RALPH SPACCA INTERNET (RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET)	01/01/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 10.844.301	1.682.287
4	AQUAMAN	01/01/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 10.765.490	1.537.267
5	CAPTAIN MARVEL	06/03/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 10.237.406	1.554.652
6	GREEN BOOK	31/01/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 9.846.784	1.572.265
7	BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY	29/11/2018	GBR	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 7.597.264	1.120.494
8	10 GIORNI SENZA MAMMA	07/02/2019	ITA	MEDUSA FILM S.P.A.	€ 7.445.837	1.187.108
9	DRAGON TRAINER - IL MONDO NASCOSTO (HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON: THE HIDDEN WORLD)	31/01/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 7.225.778	1.119.064
10	CREED II	24/01/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 7.218.029	1.042.741

 

4 movies in the top 5 have the same distributor. Disney dominance!

 

Dumbo is very close to becoming only the third movie to reach 2M admissions during the whole 2018-2018 season, and the 2nd to get there this year. It's not certain, and it may take awhile.

Green Book almost managed a double-digit gross and eventually sold more tickets than both Aquaman and Captain Marvel.

Bohemian Rhapsody was a November release, yet it's still comfortably in the top 10 of this year. Nuts.

 

Upcoming possible/likely/locked entries:

* Aladdin has many things in his favour (dead market by the time it opens, Disney remake, a princess, iconic stuff...) but it will have to face some readdy good weather (though on OW it could still be helped by low temperatures and a bit of rain) and the *bip* Pets on its 3rd weekend. Projection: 14M total gross

* Godzilla 2 is releasing the weekend after; first one did 5.2M so it's unlikely for this to overtake the 7M+ grosses above, but then again Captain Marvel was very unlikely to make 10M+ too. Projection: 4.5M total gross

* The Secret Life of Pets 2...the "original" made 13.3M, and when there are stupid domestic animals doing stupid things a good bunch of bourgeoises will certainly show up. Competition + release date should limit it a little though. Projection: 12.5M total gross

* Dark Phoenix will have a hard time finding more than one million of moviegoers, as the peak of the series (Days of Future Past) only made 6.5M; also, while it's the last of the series and has GoT's Sansa as the leading character, it's also released in early June (rarely a good thing - WW flopped in early June), after the rainiest May in recent memories and against a lot of competition. 5.0M total gross

* Toy Story 4 has lost Woody's historical voice (Fabrizio Frizzi), and doesn't have the help from 3D that TS3 had, so it will fall from its predecessor's 13.6M gross. Projection: 10.5M total gross.

Edited May 15, 2019 by Omni

[Omni]

15/05/19 (Wednesday)

 

1	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 182.073	33.804
2	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 103.902	18.069
3	TED BUNDY - FASCINO CRIMINALE (EXTREMELY WICKED, SHOCKINGLY EVIL AND VILE)	09/05/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 61.451	11.463
4	PET SEMATARY	09/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 53.323	9.926
5	5 CM AL SECONDO (BYOSOKU 5 SENCHIMETORU)	13/05/2019	JPN	NEXO DIGITAL S.P.A.	€ 48.444	5.144
6	STANLIO E OLLIO (STAN & OLLIE)	01/05/2019	GBR	LUCKY RED DISTRIB.	€ 35.197	6.817
7	RED JOAN	09/05/2019	GBR	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 19.386	3.806
8	IL GRANDE SPIRITO	09/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 15.618	3.199
9	MA COSA CI DICE IL CERVELLO	18/04/2019	ITA	VISION DISTRIBUTION	€ 14.786	2.863
10	ATTACCO A MUMBAI - UNA VERA STORIA DI CORAGGIO (HOTEL MUMBAI)	30/04/2019	AUS	M2 PICTURES S.R.L.	€ 13.362	2.605

 

Not bad again for Pikachu, but as always Thursday numbers are the most important ones. Competition is pretty weak so it should comfortably remain above 100K, which is the minimum to make a sub-50% possible.

 

IW vs EG

Mon > 109K (-69%) vs 92K (-82%)

Tue > 92K (-16%) vs 93K (+1%)

Wed > 94K (+2%) vs 104K (+12%)

Thu > 56K

Fri > 82K

Sat > 166K

Sun > 145K

Finish with IW's grosses from here on > 29.75 (600K below Alice)