ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[Omni]

Great weather did it again! As I feared, Aladdin fell below Cinderella, and may lose up to 1M today alone.

 

Beauty and the Beast > 1.521M (+95%)

Cinderella > 1.132M (+143%)

Aladdin > 923K (+75%)

Maleficent > 558K (+69%)

 

Maleficent dropped a little more than 10% on its 3rd weekend - unfortunately Aladdin won't have that luck. Cinderella, on the other hand, dropped a lot on its 3rd weekend after a fabulous 2nd weekend.

Aladdin passed the 10M mark and Captain Marvel. If it drops no more than 5% today, it will be the 2nd gross of the year behind Enfgame. 15M total still reachable, depending on how much the Pets/Phoenix duo affects it next Thursday.

 

 

[Omni]

02/06/2019 (Sunday)

 

1	ALADDIN	22/05/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 894.389	131.313
2	IL TRADITORE	23/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 325.469	47.874
3	GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS)	30/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 297.775	41.763
4	ROCKETMAN	29/05/2019	GBR	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 188.658	27.712
5	DOLOR Y GLORIA	17/05/2019	ESP	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 92.724	13.568
6	JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3)	16/05/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 68.710	9.382
7	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 39.079	5.755
8	ATTENTI A QUELLE DUE (THE HUSTLE)	16/05/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 34.951	5.010
9	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 16.700	2.165
10	L'ANGELO DEL MALE: BRIGHTBURN	23/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 16.372	2.251

 

This weekend shows how much the box office (and Endgame) was helped by an incredibly rainy May. Some of the drops are just atrociously bad, only the critically clamied Italian movie Il Traditore survived. Aladdin has most likely the 2nd best hold of all (haven't looked at the actual numbers yet). Even Dolor y Gloria freefell.

 

Usual comparisons:

Cinderella > 1.750M (+55%) - still an estimate, insane how it was on par with BatB's already crazy high Sunday

Beauty and the Beast > 1.730M (+14%)

Aladdin > 894K (-3%)

Maleficent > 460K (-16%)

 

Aladdin lost a lot of ground on Cinderella (Beauty and the Beast has never been a target), but luckily for it the Lily James LA dropped hard on its 3rd weekend, so there's still hope for the 2nd place among Disney LA films,

 

Edited June 3, 2019 by Omni

[Omni]

WEEKEND ACTUALS 30 MAY-2 JUNE

- all in million € -

 

RANK	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	PROJECTED GROSS
1	Aladdin	2.80	-50%	11.23	14.80
2	Godzilla: King of the Monsters	1.01	NEW	1.01	2.10
3	Il Traditore (It)	0.93	-36%	2.85	5.00
4	Rocketman	0.60	NEW	0.71	1.70
5	Dolor y Gloria	0.29	-59%	2.62	3.10
6	John Wick 3	0.23	-65%	3.01	3.20
7	The Hustle	0.13	-68%	1.67	1.80
8	Detective Pikachu	0.10	-75%	5.13	5.20
9	BrightBurn	0.07	-72%	0.41	0.50
10	Avengers: Endgame	0.05	-74%	29.68	29.70

 

 

Thanks to Aladdin and Il Traditore, this otherwise disastrous weekend is still up a lot (+93.6%) from the same weekend last year. 2019 is now above 2018 by 5.25%. Gimme the +20% by the end of the season!

 

Aladdin would have had one hell of a second weekend, but this is just how it works in Italy and in other European countries. Relatively speaking, it's a pretty damn good hold, the 2nd best by a wide margin. Hopefully Drak Phoenix and the second Slop don't hurt it too much. Weather still very sunny until at least the beginning of next week.

 

Comparable Disney LA - 2nd weekends:

Beauty and the Beast > 4.7M (-32%) // 14.1M gross // 20.5M total

Cinderella > 3.7M (-27.5%) // 10.3M gross // 15.0M total

Aladdin > 2.8M (-50%) // 11.2M gross // ??

Maleficent > 1.5M (-65%) // 8.9M gross // 14.0M

 

Godzilla is an epic flop. Less than 40% of the 2014 movie, and considerably weaker than Kong, too. Okay, it was hurt by the weather, but its OD was already bad enough to show that demand just wasn't there. It should also have bad legs and maybe get a multiplier above 2x. Maybe.

 

Rocketman failed big time, too. BR number (28.9M total) was obviously out of reach, and ASIB's 6.8M was too high of a number as well, but it wasn't easy to predict a sub-2M gross for this.

 

Everything else...oh well.

Awful legs for Pikachu, sub-2x multiplier. Very very unusual for a "kids flick". Avengers still below Ice Age 3 on the all time chart, it's really crawling past there.

 

This week:

* Pets 2 > the first one opened at 4.6M, don't see this going so high with summer weekdays starting the week after and weather being so good; maybe 3.0/3.5M with better legs

* Dark Phoenix > shouldn't do too well, I hope it at least breaks 2M over the 4-day frame

Also, American Animals, Polaroid and an Italian product.

 

 

[Omni]

03/06/2019 (Monday)

 

1	ALADDIN	22/05/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 229.058	38.746
2	GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS)	30/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 89.563	14.641
3	IL TRADITORE	23/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 67.248	11.950
4	ROCKETMAN	29/05/2019	GBR	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 56.676	9.700
5	JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3)	16/05/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 22.796	3.962
6	DOLOR Y GLORIA	17/05/2019	ESP	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 22.044	4.121
7	ATTENTI A QUELLE DUE (THE HUSTLE)	16/05/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 7.698	1.349
8	L'ANGELO DEL MALE: BRIGHTBURN	23/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 7.013	1.138
9	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 5.974	1.045
10	SOLO COSE BELLE	09/05/2019	ITA	INDIPENDENTI REGIONALI	€ 4.659	820

 

Beauty and the Beast > 321K (-81%)

Aladdin > 229K (-74%)

Maleficent > 227K (-51%) > start of summer weekdays

Cinderella > 209K (-88%)

 

Edited June 5, 2019 by Omni

[Sunny Max]

3 hours ago, Omni said:

03/06/2019 (Monday)

 

1	ALADDIN	22/05/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 229.058	38.746
2	GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS)	30/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 89.563	14.641
3	IL TRADITORE	23/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 67.248	11.950
4	ROCKETMAN	29/05/2019	GBR	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 56.676	9.700
5	JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3)	16/05/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 22.796	3.962
6	DOLOR Y GLORIA	17/05/2019	ESP	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 22.044	4.121
7	ATTENTI A QUELLE DUE (THE HUSTLE)	16/05/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 7.698	1.349
8	L'ANGELO DEL MALE: BRIGHTBURN	23/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 7.013	1.138
9	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 5.974	1.045
10	SOLO COSE BELLE	09/05/2019	ITA	INDIPENDENTI REGIONALI	€ 4.659	820

 

Beauty and the Beast > 450K (-74%)

Aladdin > 229K (-74%)

Maleficent > 227K (-51%) > start of summer weekdays

Cinderella > 209K (-88%)

 

Aladdin Life time Numbers ..? Any Estimate 

 

KOTM is Done ..

[Omni]

My projections are always in theweekend chart.

Around 15 millions. It's 900K ahead of Cinderella, but coming from a 900K lower weekend. It will keep losing ground on a weekly basis, but the summer weekdays should limit the damage and give the two movies a similar total.

[Sunny Max]

6 hours ago, Omni said:

My projections are always in theweekend chart.

Around 15 millions. It's 900K ahead of Cinderella, but coming from a 900K lower weekend. It will keep losing ground on a weekly basis, but the summer weekdays should limit the damage and give the two movies a similar total.

Yeah Summer holiday Giving The Momentum ...  $15 Million Is A Great Total ... 

[Omni]

04/06/19 (Tuesday)

 

1	ALADDIN	22/05/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 266.708	46.801
2	GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS)	30/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 92.319	15.381
3	IL TRADITORE	23/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 87.024	15.610
4	ROCKETMAN	29/05/2019	GBR	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 73.180	12.730
5	DOLOR Y GLORIA	17/05/2019	ESP	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 25.607	4.726
6	JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3)	16/05/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 24.421	3.979
7	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 12.161	3.237
8	ATTENTI A QUELLE DUE (THE HUSTLE)	16/05/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 10.653	1.930
9	L'ANGELO DEL MALE: BRIGHTBURN	23/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 6.881	1.181
10	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 6.717	1.238

 

Beauty and the Beast > 353K (+10%)

Cinderella > 275K (+32%)

Aladdin > 267K (+13%)

Maleficent > 234K (+3%)

 

 

Avengers back in the top 10 thanks to discount tickets on Tuesday.

 

Avengers: Endgame > 29.694.912 euros

Ice Age 3 > 29.694.180 euros

 

The MCU movie becomes the 4th Hollywood gross of all time behind Cameron and Alice in Wonderland. Though when we look at the real numbers (all those available on internet and reported by various sources are Cinetel numbers, and only cover 19/20 of the theaters), it's actually #7 (behind Cameron, The Lion King, Ice Age 3, Alice in Wonderland and Da Vinci Code). Aside from its non-existant late legs, an incredible result, especially in a market that has never really embraced the SH craze.

 

 

(PS: I edited yesterday's comparison, as I got the Wednesday number for BatB from a source that for some reason totally skipped the Monday and Tuesday numbers)

[Omni]

05/06/19 (Wednesday)

 

1	ALADDIN	22/05/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 288.168	53.031
2	GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS)	30/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 98.624	17.758
3	IL TRADITORE	23/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 95.631	18.345
4	ROCKETMAN	29/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 82.441	15.285
5	DOLOR Y GLORIA	17/05/2019	ESP	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 30.790	5.866
6	JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3)	16/05/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 25.845	4.737
7	ATTENTI A QUELLE DUE (THE HUSTLE)	16/05/2019	USA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 13.387	2.527
8	L'ANGELO DEL MALE: BRIGHTBURN	23/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 7.887	1.423
9	POKEMON DETECTIVE PIKACHU (DETECTIVE PIKACHU)	09/05/2019	GBR	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 7.827	1.442
10	AVENGERS: ENDGAME	24/04/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 7.211	1.289

 

Beauty and the Beast > 450K (+28%)

Cinderella > 296K (+8%)

Aladdin > 288K (+8%)

Maleficent > 264K (+13%)

 

Low Wednesday rises all around. Today Dark Phoenix and Pets 2 arrive, let's see how Aladdin (and Godzilla) hold.

[Sunny Max]

Steady Run For All Top 4 Films ... 

[Omni]

06/06/19 (Thursday)

 

1	X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX)	06/06/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 169.514	25.257
2	ALADDIN	22/05/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 161.703	26.290
3	PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2)	06/06/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 135.776	21.547
4	IL TRADITORE	23/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 65.825	10.948
5	GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS)	30/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 57.986	8.879
6	ROCKETMAN	29/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 42.097	6.792
7	POLAROID	06/06/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 33.152	5.073
8	A MANO DISARMATA	06/06/2019	ITA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 21.774	3.589
9	DOLOR Y GLORIA	17/05/2019	ESP	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 13.742	2.250
10	JOHN WICK 3 - PARABELLUM (JOHN WICK: CHAPTER 3)	16/05/2019	USA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 6.255	880

 

Bloody hell!

This weekend always had an unpredictability look, but I would have never expected Aladdin to remain #1 in admissions on its 3rd Thursday against Dark Phoenix and freaking Pets 2.

When it comes to family blockbusters IMs are often stronger on OW than on 2nd or sometimes even 3rd weekend (BatB, Aladdin, Maleficent, Dory, even the first Pets all experienced better Thu-to-weekend IMs on OW than on 2nd weekend). Considering that, there's still a decent chance for Pets 2 to win the weekend, but even in that case 2M is about the best it can hope for. A huge disappointment, much worse than the result in UK or Russia as it looks like the movie will lose 45/55% of the original's 13.3M.

 

Dark Phoenix spends its opening day (and probably its only day) on top of the chart. The debut is pretty bad, and unfortunately even worse than the general OS situation.

 

X-Men Days of Future Past > 393K

X Men Apocalypse > 351K OD, 291K Thursday

 

Unfortunately the better comparison at this point (X Men First Class, 1.3M OW/2.7M total) was released when daily updates were rarely made. That said, Dark Phoenix will struggle to even reach that.

 

And as usual, comparisons for Aladdin:

Beauty and the Beast > 236K (-47.5%)

Cinderella > 164K (-44.5%)

Aladdin > 162K (-44%)

Maleficent > 147K (-44%)

[Sunny Max]

Aladdin is all set to top again this weekend ... Nice

[Omni]

07/06/19 (Friday)

 

1	ALADDIN	22/05/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 186.820	28.995
2	X-MEN: DARK PHOENIX (DARK PHOENIX)	06/06/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 174.884	25.945
3	PETS 2 - VITA DA ANIMALI (THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS 2)	06/06/2019	USA	UNIVERSAL S.R.L.	€ 170.067	26.960
4	IL TRADITORE	23/05/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 79.513	12.725
5	GODZILLA 2: KING OF THE MONSTERS (GODZILLA: KING OF THE MONSTERS)	30/05/2019	USA	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 76.299	11.254
6	ROCKETMAN	29/05/2019	USA	20TH CENTURY FOX ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 54.237	8.166
7	POLAROID	06/06/2019	USA	NOTORIOUS PICT. S.P.A.	€ 42.074	6.206
8	A MANO DISARMATA	06/06/2019	ITA	EAGLE PICTURES S.P.A.	€ 23.639	4.043
9	DOLOR Y GLORIA	17/05/2019	ESP	WARNER BROS ITALIA S.P.A.	€ 19.204	2.995
10	IL CAMPIONE	18/04/2019	ITA	01 DISTRIBUTION	€ 9.764	2.158

 

Abysmal - though overall not weird for summer - numbers all around. Even for Aladdin, whose weekend will be below all the 3rd weekends of comparable Disney live actions, and will be likely down 60% from its 2nd frame.

As I anticipated, Pets 2 got the "best" increase of the leading trio. It should be #1 today and/or tomorrow. But the numbers are so bad that the total gross may even miss the 4M mark if Saturday behaves like last week or worse.

Not sure why local flop Il Campione is back in the top 10 after 50 days of release - some think it's just a mistake by Cinetel.

 

Usual comparisons for Aladdin:

Beauty and the Beast > 332K (+40%)

Cinderella > 237K (+44%)

Aladdin > 187K (+15%)

Maleficent > 174K (+18%)

 

This weekend will be down from the same weekend of last year, for the first time since Endgame opened. In fact last year Jurassic World, while it didn't set the BO on fire, it opened much better than the combination of DP and Pets2.

[Sunny Max]

yeah Absolutely horrendous numbers all over 

[Omni]

I'd be really surprised at any 100% Saturday rise for the top 3 films. I saw Dark Phoenix (less than 10% full in the afternoon), and when I got out the theater was almost empty.

Unless other parts of Italy behave differently, Aladdin and the 2 "major" openers will all struggle to 1M. My god.

[Sunny Max]

2 minutes ago, Omni said:

I'd be really surprised at any 100% Saturday rise for the top 3 films. I saw Dark Phoenix (less than 10% full in the afternoon), and when I got out the theater was almost empty.

Unless other parts of Italy behave differently, Aladdin and the 2 "major" openers will all struggle to 1M. My god.

whats happening ...? can you tell me the reason ..why BO behaving like this 

[Omni]

Summer begins and last day of school. Nobody wants to sit in a theater, especially after 50 days of rain.

[Sunny Max]

4 minutes ago, Omni said:

Summer begins and last day of school. Nobody wants to sit in a theater, especially after 50 days of rain.

LOL OK ..   

[MinaTakla]

5 hours ago, Omni said:

Summer begins and last day of school. Nobody wants to sit in a theater, especially after 50 days of rain.

I didn't expect Pets to be that low, but then again the first part didn't do that well in Italy as far as I recall (I think it did like half or third of the DM movies). Still, a 50 or 60% decline (maybe more?) in OW is v. disappointing, despite the differences in release calendars.

Curious, what's your prediction now for Minions 2 WW and in Italy specifically given the steep - and unexpected - decline of Pets 2? 

[UserHN]

26 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

I didn't expect Pets to be that low, but then again the first part didn't do that well in Italy as far as I recall (I think it did like half or third of the DM movies). Still, a 50 or 60% decline (maybe more?) in OW is v. disappointing, despite the differences in release calendars.

Curious, what's your prediction now for Minions 2 WW and in Italy specifically given the steep - and unexpected - decline of Pets 2? 

To be fair, Pets 2 is declining almost everywhere. You should also visit the Dom thread. Pets 2 is declining 50%+ from the first movies's OW.