ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[Omni]

That was just an optimistic guess.

[edroger3]

 

 

Update: in evening all screens  90%+ sold or soldout. New screens added for tomorrow. 

 

24 screening today. They have faith.

Edited December 1, 2019 by edroger3

[Claudio]

Seems like €2.48M Saturday

[Omni]

22 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

$ 2.5M today?!

 

 

22 hours ago, Omni said:

That was just an optimistic guess.

 

1

FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)

27/11/2019

USA

WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA

€ 2.484.343

369.560

€ 4.698.495

719.928

 

(Sat gross/sat adm/total gross/total adm)

fabiopazzo's guess turned out to be conservative

So Frozen 2 confirms its status of weekend movie in Italy as well.

Looking at a 6.5+ 4-day opening, close to Beauty and the Beast. One could hope for something more, but at least RJ 95's hopeful post-OD scenario came about true.

Second place for Woody Allen, 472K Saturday. It's very rare for that director to fail here.

[fabiopazzo2]

What a great prediction  😎

[Omni]

Got this smart idea of seeing Frozen 2 again with my family on Sunday.

All showings basically sold out. And there's a showing every 30 minutes.

 

This is making 3M+ today.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

What a great prediction  😎

ok, give me back the time stone. you had enough play with it.

[edroger3]

4 hours ago, Omni said:

Got this smart idea of seeing Frozen 2 again with my family on Sunday.

All showings basically sold out. And there's a showing every 30 minutes.

 

This is making 3M+ today.

Disney says 8,6m$ = +/- 8M euro so 3,2/3,4 today seems real. My UCI had 24 (+6 vs sat) screenings with 18 (+8 vs sat) soldout.  I could think more... we'll see. 

[edroger3]

12 hours ago, edroger3 said:

Disney says 8,6m$ = +/- 8M euro so 3,2/3,4 today seems real. My UCI had 24 (+6 vs sat) screenings with 18 (+8 vs sat) soldout.  I could think more... we'll see. 

FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE 

27/11/2019 € 2.942.219 - 437.983

€ 7.674.954 - 1.162.094

8,5M$ Biggest animation opening since first Ice Age times I think (no, TLK 2019 isn't animation, only sh*** CGI and waste of money)

[Omni]

Of course TLK is not animation. But F2's true OW (Wed doesn't count) is 6.9M, which unfortunately is below Minions as well (7.16). Would have needed a 3.21M Sunday to beat that - and I honestly have no idea how it didn't happen after what I saw yesterday. Maybe the brand is weaker in the south?

[fabiopazzo2]

1	FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)	27/11/2019	USA	WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA	€ 395.553	68.193	€ 8.162.204	1.244.159

[edroger3]

On 12/2/2019 at 8:49 AM, Omni said:

Of course TLK is not animation. But F2's true OW (Wed doesn't count) is 6.9M, which unfortunately is below Minions as well (7.16). Would have needed a 3.21M Sunday to beat that - and I honestly have no idea how it didn't happen after what I saw yesterday. Maybe the brand is weaker in the south?

Statistically, I agree.

 

Pratically, the 5-days start is irrelevant, unless day 1 or day 2 are holiday (or school-out for animation as for Minions) or the movies have very high "spoiler alert" level (as for Endgame). Anyone remember that until a few years ago movies were released on Friday here?  We should also remove Thursday's gross to compare? By the way also Thursdays haven't a great impact to OW: according to Cinetel 2018 report, statistically this day is lower than Wednesday and similar to Tuesday  in term of admissions and revenues.

 

So I still think F2 had the better OW performance (not holidays, not school-out days) for animated since 2009 Ice Age 3 11M and count.

Edited December 3, 2019 by edroger3

[LPLC]

Could Frozen 2 reach $25M or more in Italy ?

[fabiopazzo2]

tuesday:

 

FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)

27/11/2019

USA

WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA

€ 429.426

75.686

€ 8.611.781

1.323.154

[Omni]

WEEKEND RESULTS (28^th NOVEMBER/1^st DECEMBER)

 

RANK	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	CONVERTED TO NA
1	Frozen 2	6.899.793	NEW	7.674.953	138.00/153.50
2	A Rainy Day in New York	1.240.438	NEW	1.240.438	24.80/24.80
3	Cetto C'è, Senzadubbiamente (It)	1.115.563	-55%	4.116.784	22.30/82.30
4	J'Accuse	721.369	-41%	2.220.924	14.40/44.40
5	Midway	576.769	NEW	623.213	11.50/12.50
6	Ford vs Ferrari	281.102	-62%	2.746.799	5.60/54.90
7	Hustlers	224.251	-61%	4.328.009	4.50/86.60
8	Parasite	141.340	-52%	1.393.669	2.80/28.00
9	Il Peccato - Il Furore di Michelangelo (It)	136.807	NEW	136.807	2.70/2.70
10	Countdown	132.625	-66%	591.433	2.60/11.80

 

As expected, despite Frozen 2's opening, the weekend was up just 2.33% from the same weekend last year, when Bohemian Rhapsody and Grinch combined for 7M+. 2019's lead on 2018 is now 14.43%.

 

Frozen 2 delivered a very strong opening and went very close to being one of the very few movies to ever have a 3M+ day, as well as the third one in this crazy year after Endgame and The Lion King. This is also the third highest animated OW ever and the second animated opening of all time. That said, considering how crazy of a merchandise phenomenon the first Frozen was, an OW just 25% above Dory, which was considered a disappointment back at the time. From here on, though, the movie could go anywhere from 5% below the original (19.7M euros) and above Inside Out (3rd biggest animated movie ever after the animated LK and Ice Age 3), depending on how strong it remains once Christmas and the relative competition comes.

Good for Woody Allen, a finish above half a million admissions is possible. Pretty bad for Midway though, it's going to disappear very quickly from the chart.

Holdovers were hit very hard from Frozen 2, even those who appealed to a whole different audience. Addams Family dropped 70% while Maleficent 2 got a disastrous -83%.

 

This weekend:

* Knives Out- doesn't feel like a movie that will breakout, 1M+ could be doable

* The Good Liar - out of the top 5

* The Two Popes and Where'd You Go Bernadette? - modest numbers in likely limited releases

Frozen 2 will have zero trouble repeating at #1. There are also a couple of local products that could prevent Knives Out to finish in the podium.

[Omni]

14 hours ago, LPLC said:

Could Frozen 2 reach $25M or more in Italy ?

It could. Most likely range right now is 20/22M euros, or 22.5/24.5M dollars. Needs to remain in the top 3 the weekend before Christmas to go higher than that. At least one of the two big local products (released on Dec 12th and 18th respectively) has to disappoint.

[edroger3]

Cinetel revised first Week at 7.787 (8.611-429-395) with Sunday at 3.050 by now, but Disney says 7.248/8,060. (BOM has 8.044/8.939M$ officials 1,11 exchange rate). Minions are officially gone.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2019W48/?area=IT&ref_=bo_rl_table_1

 

This happens because Cinetel in early 2019 have updated its way to collect data, but some small cinemas haven't yet switched to the new system so their numbers are added later and the sum of daily numbers is always lower than the total at the current day. This is especially seen when big numbers are in play as for Sunday.

 

I also remember you that Cinetel covers only 93% of real seats and 95% of SIAE real gross. 

Edited December 4, 2019 by edroger3

[edroger3]

1

FROZEN II - IL SEGRETO DI ARENDELLE (FROZEN II)

27/11/2019

USA

WALT DISNEY S.M.P. ITALIA

€ 514.471

94.023

€ 9.146.504

1.420.583

 

Sum of daily numbers 8.919 - Total at today 9.146 (Disney-ized 9.398) 

-32% from OD in a school-in weekday.

Spoiler

Bigger than endgame day 8 (506 -90%)

 

[Omni]

Glad to see Frozen 2 actually got a 3+ Sunday with actuals, just like what happened when TLK opened.

 

Some second weekends of recent Disney LA/animated hits (not counting what's too high - TLK - or what's too low - Aladdin, I2 - or what was messed up by Christmas dailies - Moana):

 

Despicable Me 3 > 3.61M (-33%), 11.24M cume, 18.00M total gross

Beauty and the Beast > 4.70 (-32%), 14.13 cume, 20.50 total gross

Finding Dory > 3.04 (-45%), 10.08 cume, 15.18 total gross

Inside Out > 5.40 (-5%), 13.58 cume, 25.41 total gross

Minions > 4.84 (-32%), 15.49 cume, 23.45 total gross

Cinderella > 3.73 (-28%), 10.30 cume, 15.02 total gross

 

Excluding the Dory letdown and the Inside Out phenomenon, unless there's some sort of holidays or highly (un)favorable weather these big family movies drop in the low 30's on weekend 2. That would put a reasonable projection for F2 at 4.6/4.8M.

 

Competition shoul help as it's really non-existent. No animated film in the top 10, 2 local comedies not feeling particularly dangerous and distributors not feeling confident in Knives Out, as it's receiving the same amount of showings as an average holdover. We'll see.

 

 

[LPLC]

8 hours ago, Omni said:

Glad to see Frozen 2 actually got a 3+ Sunday with actuals, just like what happened when TLK opened.

 

Some second weekends of recent Disney LA/animated hits (not counting what's too high - TLK - or what's too low - Aladdin, I2 - or what was messed up by Christmas dailies - Moana):

 

Despicable Me 3 > 3.61M (-33%), 11.24M cume, 18.00M total gross

Beauty and the Beast > 4.70 (-32%), 14.13 cume, 20.50 total gross

Finding Dory > 3.04 (-45%), 10.08 cume, 15.18 total gross

Inside Out > 5.40 (-5%), 13.58 cume, 25.41 total gross

Minions > 4.84 (-32%), 15.49 cume, 23.45 total gross

Cinderella > 3.73 (-28%), 10.30 cume, 15.02 total gross

 

Excluding the Dory letdown and the Inside Out phenomenon, unless there's some sort of holidays or highly (un)favorable weather these big family movies drop in the low 30's on weekend 2. That would put a reasonable projection for F2 at 4.6/4.8M.

 

Competition shoul help as it's really non-existent. No animated film in the top 10, 2 local comedies not feeling particularly dangerous and distributors not feeling confident in Knives Out, as it's receiving the same amount of showings as an average holdover. We'll see.

 

 

So a week end about $4,7M and a total of $15-15,5M by Sunday which means a total above $25M possible ?