ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[FantasticBeasts]

6 minutes ago, Omni said:

FB2 did a very promising 270K in limited previews yesterday.

ASiB now out of the top 10. Some of the worst late legs I've seen.

Do you think it will fall from the last one?

[Omni]

FB did 14.9M euros (I somehow thought it was a tad more). I'm pretty sure this one will drop from that number, since the italian market is in trouble (the overall 2018 gross so far is down almost 7% from last year), but these previews suggest the drop should be limited. I'd say a 10% drop from the previous chapter.  I exclude it will fail to beat HT3 for the top spot of the season, and it could even get close to 15M if the Bohemian Rhapsody+Grinch combo disappoints on its 3rd weekend.

[fabiopazzo2]

FB2 Opening day: 751.774K 

[Omni]

Very solid, since they don't include the previews. Down only 3% from FB.

 

FB's first days for comparison:

Thu > 772K

Friday > 934K

Saturday > 2.09M

Sunday > 1.98M

That's a 4-day OW of about 5.8M. So FB2 is projected to get an OW of 5.6M.

Temperatures will fall hard this weekend, that should help.

[efialtes76]

54 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

FB2 Opening day: 751.774K 

€1,068,856 with previews.

[Omni]

Boom Baby!

 

FB2's Friday was just 4K shy of one million, meaning it was 6% higher than the original's first friday.

 

Nutcracker looking at a 50% drop from last weekend. Widows #3.

[Omni]

FB1 vs FB2 OW

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M

 

Unfortunately the Saturday jump has been relatively weak. Still a very good permormance so far considering the state of the market. It needs 1.98/1.99M on Sunday to open higher than the original (previews excluded).

Edited November 18, 2018 by Omni

[Omni]

FB1 vs FB2 OW

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M

 

WEEKEND ACTUALS 15-18 NOVEMBER

- all in million € -

 

-RANK-	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	PROJECTED GROSS
1	Fantastic Beast 2	5.86	NEW	6.18	14.50
2	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms	0.89	-49%	8.24	9.60
3	Widows	0.57	NEW	0.57	1.50
4	Everybody Knows	0.49	-30%	1.37	2.00
5	Cosa fai a Capodanno? (It)	0.47	NEW	0.47	1.10
6	Mile 22	0.44	NEW	0.44	1.00
7	Notti Magiche (It)	0.31	-53%	1.10	1.40
8	Ti Presento Sofia (It)	0.27	-56%	2.74	3.00
9	The House with a Clock in its Walls	0.23	-61%	2.98	3.30
10	First Man	0.22	-63%	2.75	2.90

 

 

Outside FB2, a wasteland. But the second chapter of the series did pretty damn good, and that's enough to push this weekend 21% above the same weekend last year, and to reduce to -6.53% the gap with 2017.

The Crimes of Grindelwald opened only slightly below the original over the 4-day frame (5.857.302 vs 5.933.119), but it's actually ahead of it thanks to the 270K gathered in previews. I stay conservative and say that FB2 will fall about half a million below the original (which would still be enough to overtake it in dollars) as having Bohemian Rhapsody + The Grinch in 10 days is certainly much more troublesome than having only Sully. That should still allow it to overtake Fifty Shades Freed for the #2 spot of the year, obviously behind Infinity War.

 

Nutcracker had a decent drop, and will try to drop sub-40% next weekend, right before it collapses when Grinch opens. A double digit finish looks out of question, but that would have only been the cherry on the cake.

As usual, weak holds for the smaller holdovers. First Man's legs have been particularly awful.

 

 

[Ed Raven]

Hi everyone. New(t) here, from Italy. My first message couldn't have been in a different thread, I guess.

 

I'm very happy about AF2's OW but I'm a bit worried about its legs. Being Italian and having seen the audience's reaction on social networks (not exactly positive with really angry/negative - for the wrong reasons - opinions) I'm afraid it will struggle to reach €13m. 

[Omni]

Could be, though as low as 13M requires really A LOT of bad WOM, as next weekend there will be zero competition (everyone was afraid to sandwich a movie right between Hogwarts and Illumination, I guess).

Then again, I've always overestimated the multipliers of the big openers so far, so...

[Omni]

410K for FB2 on Monday. FB1 did 450K 2 years ago.

A 10% fall behind the original right on the first weekday is certainly not a good sign, but then again all films experienced nasty drops. Nutcracker, for example, was down 49% over the weekend, but it's now 55% behind last Monday.

[Quigley]

18 hours ago, Ed Raven said:

Hi everyone. New(t) here, from Italy. My first message couldn't have been in a different thread, I guess.

 

I'm very happy about AF2's OW but I'm a bit worried about its legs. Being Italian and having seen the audience's reaction on social networks (not exactly positive with really angry/negative - for the wrong reasons - opinions) I'm afraid it will struggle to reach €13m. 

Hi Ed Raven,

Nice to see a new member join the forum. I am the thread manager for the Italian and the Greek thread. Omni is the main one who keeps us informed about the Italian box office with his most appreciated posts.

[Omni]

FB1 vs FB2

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M

Monday > 450K vs 410K

Tuesday > 446K vs 416K

 

So a very small increase compared to FB1's very small decrease. Better than nothing.

The original had a very strong Wednesday, followed by a solid Thursday and by a weak Friday rise. Don't be surprised Grindelwald loses some ground today and tomorrow and recovers on Friday.

[Omni]

FB1 vs FB2

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M

Monday > 450K vs 410K

Tuesday > 446K vs 416K

Wednesday > 600K vs 453K

 

On 11/21/2018 at 9:17 AM, Omni said:

Don't be surprised Grindelwald loses some ground today and tomorrow and recovers on Friday.

Okay, but this is probably a little too much, and certainly concerning. It has to stay above 250K today.

Edited November 22, 2018 by Omni

[Omni]

FB1 vs FB2

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M

Monday > 450K vs 410K

Tuesday > 446K vs 416K

Wednesday > 600K vs 453K

Thursday > 315K vs 255K

 

Well, just barely but it did it.

Using the standard 100% Friday rise it should return on par with the original. But that's where the supposedly bad wom should kick in.

 

Robin Hood opened in second place with about 70K, Should get about 1/1.5M out of that (Edit: I mean total)

Another 50% drop for Nutcracker. Hopefully it will improve on Sat/Sun.

Edited November 23, 2018 by Omni

[Omni]

FB1 vs FB2

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M

Monday > 450K vs 410K

Tuesday > 446K vs 416K

Wednesday > 600K vs 453K

Thursday > 315K vs 255K

Friday > 495K vs 410K

 

Obviously not what one would hope for, but the generally weak Friday for all movies still gives us the chance of a big jump on Saturday. Of course, an average Saturday rise would put an end to all excuses.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Omni

[Omni]

FB1 vs FB2

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M

Monday > 450K vs 410K

Tuesday > 446K vs 416K

Wednesday > 600K vs 453K

Thursday > 315K vs 255K

Friday > 495K vs 410K

Saturday > 1.214M vs 994K

 

Awful number. No excuse.

Ed Raven's doom-and-gloom projection is in play.

[Ed Raven]

3 hours ago, Omni said:

FB1 vs FB2

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K (+7%)

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M  (-2%)

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M (-1,5%)

Monday > 450K vs 410K (-9%)

Tuesday > 446K vs 416K (-7%)

Wednesday > 600K vs 453K (-32%)

Thursday > 315K vs 255K (-23%)

Friday > 495K vs 410K (-20%)

Saturday > 1.214M vs 994K (-22%)

 

Awful number. No excuse.

Ed Raven's doom-and-gloom projection is in play.

 

It's doing worse numbers than the first one but an overall 20% drop would be acceptable.

 

The Friday-to-Saturday jump was +145% for FB1 and +142 for FB2, a very similar path following the steady decrease during weekdays. €13m are still in play but not a sure thing.

AF1 finished with €14.9m

[Ed Raven]

FB1 vs FB2

Thu > 772K vs 752K

Friday > 934K vs 996K

Saturday > 2.09M vs 2.05M

Sunday > 1.98M vs 1.95M

Monday > 450K vs 410K

Tuesday > 446K vs 416K

Wednesday > 600K vs 453K

Thursday > 315K vs 255K

Friday > 495K vs 410K

Saturday > 1.214M vs 994K
Sunday > 1.131M vs 915K

 

Total after 11 days > 10.815M vs 10.292M -> really not that bad at all, considering I was expecting it to drop harder. That's only a 4,83% overall drop (in €).

[Omni]

WEEKEND ACTUALS 22-25 NOVEMBER

- all in million € -

 

-RANK-	MOVIE	WEEKEND GROSS	HOLD	TOTAL GROSS	PROJECTED GROSS
1	Fantastic Beast 2	2.61	-55%	10.29	13.50
2	Robin Hood	0.85	NEW	0.85	1.80
3	The Nutcracker and the 4 Realms	0.52	-42%	8.94	9.60
4	Troppa Grazia (It)	0.46	NEW	1.37	2.00
5	Widows	0.33	-42%	1.04	1.40
6	Dead in a Week (GB)	0.29	NEW	0.29	0.60
7	Dieses Bescheuerte Herz (Ger)	0.25	NEW	0.25	0.60
8	Everybody Knows (Sp)	0.24	-51%	1.70	3.00
9	Mile 22	0.24	-46%	0.79	1.00
10	A Private War	0.21	NEW	0.21	0.50

 

 

After all, not an atrocious hold for FB2 considering the rest of the holdovers. Still, considering it pretty much retained all of its screens and showings and that comptition was very weak, it should have been definitely better. Bad wom kicking in.

 

Huge jump for Robin Hood on Saturday, for an opening that's much better than expected.

Nutcraker recovered on Saturday and Sunday, but not enough to make a double-digit finish come true. That said, it got the best post-Halloween holds of all movies.

The House with a Clock in its Walls dropped by a decent 55% or so, while First Man and A Star is Born collapsed with 70% freefalls. The post-Halloween holds for those two movies have been insanely bad.

 

In three days...Bohemian Rhapsody and The Grinch. The latter should do very well, as the last high-profile animated movie on screens was I2, released more than 2 months ago.