ITALY (Botteghino): 'Kung Fu Panda 4' stronger than predecessor

[Asyulus]

For DM3, €22.8m total is my guess.

[abra]

Box Office - Dal: 24/08/2017 Al: 24/08/2017

 

 

 

Posizione	Film	Nazione	Distributore	Incasso	Presenze
1	CATTIVISSIMO ME 3 (DESPICABLE ME 3)	USA	universal s.r.l.	€ 1.550.993	236.226
2	OVERDRIVE	FRA	koch media s.r.l.	€ 68.727	10.231
3	AMITYVILLE - IL RISVEGLIO (AMITYVILLE: THE AWAKENING)	USA	notorious pict. s.p.a.	€ 62.776	9.380
4	ATOMICA BIONDA (ATOMIC BLONDE)	USA	universal s.r.l.	€ 58.467	9.772
5	ANNABELLE 2: CREATION (ANNABELLE: CREATION)	USA	warner bros italia s.p.a.	€ 47.093	7.322
6	LA TORRE NERA (THE DARK TOWER)	USA	warner bros italia s.p.a.	€ 45.054	7.312
7	SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING	USA	warner bros italia s.p.a.	€ 9.622	1.558
8	DIARIO DI UNA SCHIAPPA: PORTATEMI A CASA! (DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LONG HAUL)	USA	20th century fox italia s.p.a.	€ 5.861	1.028
9	THE WAR - IL PIANETA DELLE SCIMMIE (WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES)	USA	20th century fox italia s.p.a.	€ 5.570	847
10	MONOLITH	ITA	vision distribution	€ 5.092	840

[Asyulus]

@MinaTakla Is $20m Italy for Despicabl3 looking likely?

 

Is it good or bad? €1.55m OD

Edited August 25, 2017 by Asyulus

[MinaTakla]

15 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

@MinaTakla Is $20m Italy for Despicabl3 looking likely?

 

Is it good or bad? €1.55m OD

According to Italian box office sites, DM3 scored the highest opening day for a Hollywood movie in 2017 in Italy. The opening day is more than Beauty and the Beast, Fast and Furious 8, Pirates 5, Guardians and other Hollywood releases in Italy. It's also higher than Jurassic World, Batman V Superman, Avengers, Civil War, Fantastic Beasts and others.

Comps:

Minions: around 2m euro ($2.3m) on its first day in Italy. Ended with $26.5m. 

DM3 made around $1.83m.

DM2 did 0.48m euro ($560K) on its first day in release but it was in October.

Pets scored around $400K opening day last year.

Finding Dory: 506K euro ($600K) opening day in 2016, ended with $17.5m. 

Beauty and the beast - 842K euro ($993K) opening day - ended with $23m - highest grossing film of the year in Italy.

Pirates: 0.785 euro ($922K) opening day - ended with $15m in Italy. 

Furious 8: 1.45m euro opening day ($1.77m) - ended with around $16.5m in Italy.

In order to assess how much the weekend will be, perhaps tomorrow's gross and Saturday will give us a better idea.

 

[Asyulus]

16 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

According to Italian box office sites, DM3 scored the highest opening day for a Hollywood movie in 2017 in Italy. The opening day is more than Beauty and the Beast, Fast and Furious 8, Pirates 5, Guardians and other Hollywood releases in Italy. It's also higher than Jurassic World, Batman V Superman, Avengers, Civil War, Fantastic Beasts and others.

Comps:

Minions: around 2m euro ($2.3m) on its first day in Italy. Ended with $26.5m. 

DM3 made around $1.83m.

DM2 did 0.48m euro ($560K) on its first day in release but it was in October.

Pets scored around $400K opening day last year.

Finding Dory: 506K euro ($600K) opening day in 2016, ended with $17.5m. 

Beauty and the beast - 842K euro ($993K) opening day - ended with $23m - highest grossing film of the year in Italy.

Pirates: 0.785 euro ($922K) opening day - ended with $15m in Italy. 

Furious 8: 1.45m euro opening day ($1.77m) - ended with around $16.5m in Italy.

In order to assess how much the weekend will be, perhaps tomorrow's gross and Saturday will give us a better idea.

 

Well, Italy legs look illogical. Minions opened with $2.3m first day compared to BATB's $1m first day, less than half of Minions. Yet Minions only made $3.5m higher than BATB in terms of total? Makes 0% sense.

 

Does DM3 have competition in Italy on future weekends? Will it manage to hit $30 million using BATB legs?

[abra]

Box Office - Dal: 25/08/2017 Al: 25/08/2017

 

 

 

Posizione	Film	Nazione	Distributore	Incasso	Presenze
1	CATTIVISSIMO ME 3 (DESPICABLE ME 3)	USA	universal s.r.l.	€ 1.163.370	176.584
2	OVERDRIVE	FRA	koch media s.r.l.	€ 72.562	10.677
3	ATOMICA BIONDA (ATOMIC BLONDE)	USA	universal s.r.l.	€ 64.265	10.364
4	AMITYVILLE - IL RISVEGLIO (AMITYVILLE: THE AWAKENING)	USA	notorious pict. s.p.a.	€ 61.541	9.007
5	LA TORRE NERA (THE DARK TOWER)	USA	warner bros italia s.p.a.	€ 49.402	7.719
6	ANNABELLE 2: CREATION (ANNABELLE: CREATION)	USA	warner bros italia s.p.a.	€ 47.259	6.931
7	SPIDER-MAN: HOMECOMING	USA	warner bros italia s.p.a.	€ 11.503	1.872
8	THE WAR - IL PIANETA DELLE SCIMMIE (WAR FOR THE PLANET OF THE APES)	USA	20th century fox italia s.p.a.	€ 7.195	1.122
9	DIARIO DI UNA SCHIAPPA: PORTATEMI A CASA! (DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LONG HAUL)	USA	20th century fox italia s.p.a.	€ 6.308	1.084
10	MONOLITH	ITA	vision distribution	€ 6.261	1.015

[Asyulus]

Dissapointing friday number for DM3. Might not even get past $20m total.

 

@MinaTakla What were the friday numbers (2nd day) of Minions, Finding Dory, BATB, Pirates and blockbusters? In USD.

[MinaTakla]

27 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

Dissapointing friday number for DM3. Might not even get past $20m total.

 

@MinaTakla What were the friday numbers (2nd day) of Minions, Finding Dory, BATB, Pirates and blockbusters? In USD.

Minions dropped -22.5% from its OD to Friday scoring $1.87m USD. DM3 dropped -25% from its OD to Friday scoring $1.39m USD. So they are very similar so far.

Pirates was about 900k USD on its first Friday (second day).

Dory was around 850K USD on its first Friday (second day).

FF8 was at 2.7m euro on its first 2 days.

DM3 is at 2.75m euro on its first 2 days. ($3.2m USD)

Edited August 26, 2017 by MinaTakla

[Asyulus]

2 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

Minions dropped -22.5% from its OD to Friday scoring $1.87m USD. DM3 dropped -25% from its OD to Friday scoring $1.39m USD. So they are very similar so far.

Pirates was about 900k USD on its first Friday (second day).

Dory was around 850K USD on its first Friday (second day).

FF8 was at 2.7m euro on its first 2 days.

DM3 is at 2.75m euro on its first 2 days. ($3.2m USD)

Either way, using Minions legs will put DM3 at $19m total. Bad number. What was BATB and Inside Out's first friday USD amount?

[MinaTakla]

9 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

Either way, using Minions legs will put DM3 at $19m total. Bad number. What was BATB and Inside Out's first friday USD amount?

It's not a bad number imo, it's fine. Not groundbreaking but not bad. In most European markets, DM3 ended up making around 80% of Minions in each market. It's Asia and Latin America where it did much more business. 80% of Minions' 26m = 20.8. DM3 can still cross 20m imo in Italy. It wasn't going to make like 25m there.

DM3's Friday is still higher than BATB (1.2m) and Inside Out (1m)

[MinaTakla]

19 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

Either way, using Minions legs will put DM3 at $19m total. Bad number. What was BATB and Inside Out's first friday USD amount?

Also like Omni said, I doubt the few extra millions (19m or 23m in Italy) would make the difference between DM3 crossing 1B comfortably or not. It's the holdover markets and a fine run in Italy that will seal the deal.

Also 3.2(Minions legs)x 6.4m OW = 20.5m for DM3

Edited August 26, 2017 by MinaTakla

[MinaTakla]

$1.5m Saturday for DM3. Projected weekend around $6.4-6.5m. Around 80-81% of Minions OW. (6.45 average/8 = 0.8) 

 

Minions (dollars in 2015 Exchange rates)	DM3 (dollars in 2017 Exchange rates)
OD Thurs $2.25	OD Thurs $1.85
Fri $1.75m (-22%)	Fri $1.38m (-25%)
Sat $1.92m (+10%)	Sat $1.5m (+9%)
Sun $2.23 (+17%)	Projected: $1.73 (+15%)
OW: $8.0m	Projected OW: $6.4 or $6.5m (80% of Minions OW which is $8m) Same result as most European markets most notably Spain (which typically follows Italy and vice versa). DM3 OW: $5.2, Minions OW: $6.2 (83.8% of Minions)

Edited August 27, 2017 by MinaTakla

[Asyulus]

Did Minions have competition during it's entire run in this country? Will DM3 have competition during it's run in ths country?

[Omni]

This result for DM3 is still very solid. Not only because the exchange rate is better now (the -25% in lc from Minions becomes a -20%, possibly less), but mainly because Italy is, like Germany, a declining market. In the last 12 months, only 2 movies crossed the 15M euros mark: Dory just barely, at 15.2M, and BatB at 20.5M. Also, the weather is going to get a little worse next week and on its 3rd weekend of release DM3 doesn't have Inside Out, it has...Cars 3 - lo legs could be a little better.

 

@Asyulus: it all seemed illogical to you becuase MinaTakla gave you ODs of movies released in different months of the year. In Italy movies open on Thursday, meaning that the OD, if we're in mid-September like in Dory's case or in March like in BatB's case, are quite subdued. Minions, like DM3 and all movies released in the second half of August, opened when like 50% of population was on holiday.

[Asyulus]

Cars isn't that a big brand in Italy. Cars 3 will make half of Cars 2 (which coudn't even do $15m) based on collapsing exchange rates and lower numbers (C3 has less than 1/2 of C2's international gross), and it will flop here making less than $10m, possibly $5m Italy total for Cars 3. On the other hand, DM3 has zero competition in Italy. For Minions, it did made actually less than IO total in Italy, so the latter could have affected Minions legs.

Edited August 27, 2017 by Asyulus

[Omni]

That's what I said In Italy, just like in every other market, DM3 will have a big advantage: it will run in a wasteland.

[efialtes76]

OW-€5.393M

[Omni]

Rainy weekend indeed. Combine that with absolute lack of competition, monstrous amount of showtimes and 2nd weekend hold historically being the best hold a movie usually gets in Italy, and a sub-30% becomes very possible for DM3, possibly in the mid-low 20's.

[redfirebird2008]

Deadline reported today that Dunkirk had a pretty good opening Thursday, apparently the best for a Warner Brothers movie in 2017 so far. Also apparently double the opening day of Interstellar, but they didn't say if this was in USD or local currency. Would make a big difference considering the weaker exchange rates in 2017 vs. 2014.

[efialtes76]

3 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Dunkirk opened with €0.63M. 

Edited September 2, 2017 by efialtes76