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Avatar 2 | 16 DEC 2022 | Not getting delayed

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9 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 Maybe, but two years apart is better.

Whats this nonsense!

 

Jim wanted to release them one year apart, as in JIM THINKS ITS OPTIMAL.

 

Then we have potter, lotr and IW to EG to show 1 year is a good gap.

 

Then we star wars to show us 2 year ain't great

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So, have the Cameronites started quaking in their boots yet about Engame's extended release?

 

Personally I really don't get it, you'd think they'd want Avatar to barely stay at #1 for the sequel release and to keep good faith with Cameron.

It seems like a really weird strategic move.

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2 hours ago, JimiQ said:

So Avatar's gain from favourable ER is 25% even AFTER accounting for inflation. 2B OS suddenly becomes 1.6B.

Just did a quick ER check with Euro. Avatar's gain is 27% BEFORE accounting for inflation (1.13 vs 1.44).

 

In Germany average ticket price for Avatar was 10.14 EUR, for Endgame it is 11.26 EUR, so Endgame's gain here is 11%.

 

Had Avatar been released today and sold the same number of tickets in germany it would have made $144m instead of $162m in 2009 using Endgame's average ticket price but Avatar's might have been even higher ("must see in 3D!"), which might have compensated fully for the ER advantage. We should be able to apply that to most of Europe (maybe not in Czechia???).

 

I'm sure ticket prices (and numbers of tickets sold???) exploded in developing markets between 2009 and now, most extreme case of course being China. However, taking into account ERs in every market would be a herculian task.

Edited by Elessar
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27 minutes ago, WhiteWings said:

So, have the Cameronites started quaking in their boots yet about Engame's extended release?

 

Personally I really don't get it, you'd think they'd want Avatar to barely stay at #1 for the sequel release and to keep good faith with Cameron.

It seems like a really weird strategic move.

Or they want to maintain a kind of war between the two, and rerelease Avatar later down the road and see who comes on top? Bizarre. I'm not even sure this "rerelease" will add much of anything. It seems that it being mainly one extra post credits scene is making the rounds on Twitter, I doubt most will bother? And it's only domestic isn't it? 

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1 minute ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Or they want to maintain a kind of war between the two, and rerelease Avatar later down the road and see who comes on top? Bizarre. I'm not even sure this "rerelease" will add much of anything. It seems that it being mainly one extra post credits scene is making the rounds on Twitter, I doubt most will bother? And it's only domestic isn't it? 

I guess it might be too early to draw conclusions. But if it truly were a push for #1 I don't get it, I can't see the value of the back and forth. The MCU doesn't really gain from it, and Avatar stands to lose from it, and that matters to them now.

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5 minutes ago, Elessar said:

I'm sure ticket prices (and numbers of tickets sold???) exploded in developing markets between 2009 and now, most extreme case of course being China. However, taking into account ERs in every market would be a herculian task.

 

2 hours ago, JimiQ said:

If Avatar's gross of 213m CZK was exchanged today it would be 9.4m USD instead of accounted 12.5 in 2010. If we go by admissions it's equivalent gross would be 229 m CZK today which would be 10.1m USD. And it's the same with most of europe and probably Japan and SK. So Avatar's gain from favourable ER is 25% even AFTER accounting for inflation. 2B OS suddenly becomes 1.6B.

Not just a herculean task. Close to impossible. 

 

Let's ignore everything but ER and CPI (which is itself already a very narrow view as it ignores population changes, PPP changes, and probably hundreds of other variables that economists would screech about). Anyway, back to ER and CPI. First most of the time we look at CPI it's only within the US, it's almost the assumption that people have when they mention inflation in any way. So let's all agree that we can calculate the CPI change between 2000 and 2010, we can then get the value that the CRI increase is 26.6% over that 10 year period - for those not following, that means 100 dollars [2000] would be 127 dollars [2010]. That in itself isn't controversial. It actually works very well for those people who like to imagine that the USA is the only country on Earth, and the reason you'll often see people posting ridiculous charts that only include the US. 

 

Now let's think about ER, for this we can use our fictional country of Pandora and their currency the 'Jim' (J). Let's say they had an ER of USD to J of 1.42 in 2000 and an exchange rate of USD to J of 1.9 in 2010. During this time Pandora saw a CRI of 22%.  So to find how much  $100 [2000] would be in [2010] Jims do you: 

 

Use 142 (+26.6%) as your measure giving us $180.

or

190 (+22%) to give us $232. 

 

This is only one of the many problems you're going to face in this task, and that's even assuming that someone would agree to use the CRI and not want a calculation based on the inflation rate of each year AND THEN the individual ER of each year PER country. 

 

So that's one can of worms that I'm happy for someone else to tackle. Let's take a look at admission, lets pretend every country is like Czechia where they apparently count tickets sold. If you were to do this, now you've got an question you might want to ask yourself ON TOP of the above problems - Do you account for population changes? What about number of theaters? 

 

I could get my head of data science on this, but to be honest if I did and he agreed I'd want to know why he wasn't working for Nielsen instead of at a Law Firm. 

 

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13 hours ago, HeadShot said:

Well to bad, cause it is right. Charlie already did a breakdown with exchange rates which proves that EG outgrossed Avatar. Also exchange rates are NEVER accounted for when adjusting for Avatar inflation - if that was the case then the total gross would be much less than 2,7 billion. 

 

Charlie is about to do admissions breakdown in the upcoming week but he's already stated that EG outdid Avatar which is believable considering that Avatar made most of it's gross due to 3D tickets which are much more expensive. 

Oh man, you've just made a big bunch of enemies ... :sadno:

 

3 hours ago, TimmyRiggins said:

Or they want to maintain a kind of war between the two, and rerelease Avatar later down the road and see who comes on top? Bizarre. I'm not even sure this "rerelease" will add much of anything. It seems that it being mainly one extra post credits scene is making the rounds on Twitter, I doubt most will bother? And it's only domestic isn't it? 

Read somewhere that in some countries (like Brazil and some other I don't remember), they are getting that extended copy too next weekend. 

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8 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

You're making it sound as though OS currency is not itself subject to inflation. What you're saying is nonsense. 

It's not nonsense at all when you take this in consideration -

The financial crisis of 2007–2008, also known as the global financial crisis and the 2008 financial crisis, is considered by many economists to have been the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s

 

Don't act stupid. We aren't talking about regular inflation/exchange rates here. Charlie has already proven that Avatar would have grossed much less with today's ER. Also it seems like Cameron has delayed A2 just in time for the 2nd Great Depression - looks like the world record might be his again.

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1 hour ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Oh man, you've just made a big bunch of enemies ... :sadno:

 

Read somewhere that in some countries (like Brazil and some other I don't remember), they are getting that extended copy too next weekend. 

Eh I don't care. The cameron fans are angry as hell because End Game is the bigger movie. They know it. The fact that EG is even at 2,7 billion after years of them saying NO ONE IS GONNA GET CLOSE  must be really bothering them. Avatar's achievement as being so much a head of every other movie in gross has been ERASED.  

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12 minutes ago, HeadShot said:

Charlie has already proven that Avatar would have grossed much less with today's ER.

I see, just taking ERs and ignoring every other factor...

 

The worldwide market has grown considerably since 2009. Newest movies dominate the all time worldwide box office list. In US dollar.

 

A movie the size of Avatar would have grossed considerably more than almost $2.8b today or conversely, Endgame would have grossed consirebaly less than that in 2009.

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If one looks at the Domestic gross only - Avatar opened on 3,452 screens maxing to 3,461 on weekend three. Endgame opened on 4,662, the growth in the domestic market alone is UP almost 35%. That's a lot of added screens in the USA and Canada. 

 

Of course China is the market the defines explosive growth. 263.8 million tickets sold (all films) in 2009 versus 1.62 Billion in 2017 UP 514.1%

 

It makes any attempt at an equitable comparison almost impossible, then you have to factor exchange, inflation, political climate (stable or not) and so on....

 

 

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55 minutes ago, Deuce66 said:

If one looks at the Domestic gross only - Avatar opened on 3,452 screens maxing to 3,461 on weekend three. Endgame opened on 4,662, the growth in the domestic market alone is UP almost 35%. That's a lot of added screens in the USA and Canada. 

 

Of course China is the market the defines explosive growth. 263.8 million tickets sold (all films) in 2009 versus 1.62 Billion in 2017 UP 514.1%

 

It makes any attempt at an equitable comparison almost impossible, then you have to factor exchange, inflation, political climate (stable or not) and so on....

 

 

People are really shit when it comes to reality. Avatars performance was unreal even compared to EG.

Edited by IronJimbo
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22 hours ago, HeadShot said:

Exchange rates is different from inflation. The dollar was worth less in 2009 then today. So whatever money it made OS is heavily inflated. EG already outsold Avatar in admissions. It's over. Cameron lost.

Oh ****! Link? Proof? Just want confirmation on this cause that's a pretty big deal.

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10 minutes ago, jaybox said:

Oh ****! Link? Proof? Just want confirmation on this cause that's a pretty big deal.

December 2009  ------ > 1 USD = 0.69 EUR

 

June 2019 ------- > 1 USD = 0.89 EUR

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1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

People are really shit when it comes to reality. Avatars performance was unreal even compared to EG.

Avatar box office performance was unreal ... there is no doubt about it ... 

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3 hours ago, HeadShot said:

Eh I don't care. The cameron fans are angry as hell because End Game is the bigger movie. They know it. The fact that EG is even at 2,7 billion after years of them saying NO ONE IS GONNA GET CLOSE  must be really bothering them. Avatar's achievement as being so much a head of every other movie in gross has been ERASED.  

Instead of "erased" shouldn't it be "snapped?" Also, I even tho apparently Endgame is about to or in someways has already surpassed Avatar worldwide according to admissions/exchange rates/what have you, I maintain that EG fans can't truly talk **** until Avatar 2 doesn't beat Endgame. Why? Cameron has literally had the last 2 top grossing movies of all time. It took over 20 years for the 2nd movie to be dethroned, then 10 years for the current number 1 to have a true challenger. He replaced himself as number 1. Which is pretty ridiculous. Gotta give credit.

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Lol I heard disney is so desperate they re-releasing end.game.with new footage to.make.a few million and then lie that.it beat avatar ww. Lol

Hopefully jc makes them re-release avatar 1 before 2 so avatar can regain the ww lead if thats the case. Avatar 2 comes to beat E.g. by 1.5- 2.5b or mre regardless next year

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1 hour ago, jaybox said:

Instead of "erased" shouldn't it be "snapped?" Also, I even tho apparently Endgame is about to or in someways has already surpassed Avatar worldwide according to admissions/exchange rates/what have you, I maintain that EG fans can't truly talk **** until Avatar 2 doesn't beat Endgame. Why? Cameron has literally had the last 2 top grossing movies of all time. It took over 20 years for the 2nd movie to be dethroned, then 10 years for the current number 1 to have a true challenger. He replaced himself as number 1. Which is pretty ridiculous. Gotta give credit.

There is no way in hell Avatar 2 is even coming close to 2 billion lol. And while Cameron got lucky with two movies MCU has over 20+ successful movies in the span of 10 years. That deserves credit as well.

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