Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[TomCruiseTop]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Hey JCS long time no see.

 

WOW, just wow. I can't believe what I'm reading here. I was sceptical when you brought up politics and stuff in the past but time and time again you're right. I'm pretty scared right now, but atleast A2 makes billies and billies. Though I think I would prefer the global economy to just not explode.

 

Good to see this thread is not on the LOT anymore, appreciating the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time finally.

 

 

Glad to be back Jimbo. Hope you're doing well. As I said above, I don't expect global economic collapse. I'm merely saying that I think that current economic trends seem to be favorable for the release of A2.

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Glad to be back Jimbo. Hope you're doing well. As I said above, I don't expect global economic collapse. I'm merely saying that I think that current economic trends seem to be favorable for the release of A2.

Thank god, I only just started saving money this last year. Only A2 making 15billies would sooth the pain of losing my savings.

[TomCruiseTop]

One more thing, the AMC CEO has seen footage of A2 - I expect a teaser shortly.

 

[The GOAT]

2 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I think $10B+ is still on the cards. However, things will have to play out quickly, and we will still have to see the BO measured in USD.

 

I think the U.S. defaults. The dollar collapses. I see it being triggered by increased interest rates, resulting from the U.S. trying to pay back debt. This is sort of what is happening right now. Currently, the demand for U.S. treasury bonds is hitting an inflection point. For the longest time, the dollar has been supported because it is the least bad currency. Smaller economies collapse, and they fall into the dollar. This has contained the inflation in the U.S. for the last 40 or so years. When foreign currencies collapse. The government will usually create a new one. Pegged to the dollar. In essence, the new money can be redeemed for American dollars at the countries reserves. This causes foreign nations, 65 of them, to hold American dollars in their reserves (dollars and treasuries). This benefits Americans a lot because even though the fed has gone mad with the money printer, we haven’t drastically outpaced foreign demand for dollars.

 

When we print money to bail out our mal investments and soothe the pain domestically, we rob all the countries that hold U.S. dollars and treasuries abroad. They don’t get any benefit from the stimulus but all of the deprecation in their reserves. Governments are starting to realize this and have begun adding gold and other currencies to their reserves. El Salvador has even started adding Bitcoin. Think about El Salvador. They are a poor country. If they play it conservatively, they will remain a poor country. If they take a risk, it might just pay off. If it doesn’t well, they end up poor. That is what they already are. As you can see, the risk is favorable to poor nations.

 

Another example of this concept is who favors change. The top 1% does not like change, especially significant change. Because if change happens it means they could become any other percentile. That means they might move up, but it is way more likely that they move down. The opposite is true of someone in the bottom 1%. Change, massive change, is favorable to the bottom. Nothing is worse than being on the bottom, so any change will likely be positive. It is this reason why every company eventually fails. They get big, and change happens. They are too afraid and too slow to deal with it. Think about Sears. It was once a start-up; risk-taking was the only thing they knew, then the internet came along. They resisted change while a new generation of start-ups embraced the change. This is a constant cycle.

 

So then you can the perfect storm, hyperinflation at home, with exchange rates overseas becoming ever unfavorable, so that even if the film sells 'normal' numbers in terms of ticket numbers, it still does an insane dollar value based on the real term value of the dollar dropping.

 

I have been saying this for years, I didn't believe that it would come to pass as it has, but I still think that knowing Jim he has always had his eye on the economic ball.

The US will NEVER default,

But you are correct in the assessment that Dollar is printed off the backs of the developing world.    

Ever since the 08 crash, they've been printing like crazy with the rest of the world shouldering the most of the burden.   

If worse comes to worse, foreign countries will just switch their reserve currencies to the Euro or Yuan. 

 

 

[excel1]

18 hours ago, Noctis said:

 

Oh, please. No one knows who the fuck Josh Hartnett is by name anymore while everyone remembers Avatar. 

 

 

 

No, they really don't.

[Noctis]

7 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

No, they really don't.

 

[TomCruiseTop]

11 hours ago, The GOAT said:

The US will NEVER default,

It's that change to the Euro/RMB that I've been suggesting for some time. What makes you think there would never be a default? Would they just keep taking on debt forever?

[SchumacherFTW]

8 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

No, they really don't.

I think it's a combination of the two. People remember Avatar for sure, but at least anecdotally there's not much passion for it. 

[TomCruiseTop]

3 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

there's not much passion for it. 

Just like the first movie then. I think to be a viral hit of Jim-levels a certain amount of under-expectation/estimation is a good thing in the GA.

[TomCruiseTop]

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

 

The last time there was this much inflation for this long was the year before a certain movie came out. Will we see the sequel when we see the sequel?

[The GOAT]

9 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

It's that change to the Euro/RMB that I've been suggesting for some time. What makes you think there would never be a default? Would they just keep taking on debt forever?

 

* raises the debt ceiling 10000 times

[XXR vs XXR]

Personally, I think Avatar 2 will do around $2.2B worldwide but I’d love to see it hit these $3.5-4B predictions I see on here. That would be fun to track across the board  

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

Personally, I think Avatar 2 will do around $2.2B worldwide but I’d love to see it hit these $3.5-4B predictions I see on here. That would be fun to track across the board  

The pandemic has spoiled Jim's gang dreams of making 3-4B. (Not that it had a chance of happening even in normal times). And if it keeps that December date, it will disappoint big time. Corona will be going strong in the winter time.  1-1.5B is my prediction for now

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

The pandemic has spoiled Jim's gang dreams of making 3-4B.

It really hasn't, if anything it has strengthened my predictions purely because of the impact it has had on the economy. See my post a page back.

[excel1]

On 11/8/2021 at 9:42 PM, excel1 said:

Avatar is like the Josh Hartnett of movies. It was truly huge in its day, but it left basically no long-term footprint and many people have frankly forgotten all about it. 

 

QFT

[dudalb]

3 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

QFT

I have to agree.

I think Avatar 2 could be a huge hit, but it just does not have the kind of support and public awarness that your really big Franchises have had. I don't think it  doing 2 billion is a done deal like the fanboys think.

And Stephan Lang is the only actor I think gave a memorable performance in "Avatar".

Edited November 11, 2021 by dudalb

[lilmac]

When do you expect the first teaser/trailer? Superbowl? Easter? 

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

I have to agree.

I think Avatar 2 could be a huge hit, but it just does not have the kind of support and public awarness that your really big Franchises have had. I don't think it  doing 2 billion is a done deal like the fanboys think.

And Stephan Lang is the only actor I think gave a memorable performance in "Avatar".

I don't know about support but I'd bet it has more public awareness than almost any other movie that's more than a year away.

[Noctis]

10 hours ago, excel1 said:

 

QFT

 

I love people quoting themselves.

 

What are you predicting for this? You make it seem like it's gonna struggle to pass something like $1.3b.

[SchumacherFTW]

Right now, today, I feel like Force Awakens WW is a good, realistic goal.