Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Issac Newton]

$5000M /$5B Finals are possible after all James Cameron is a great director. I will post the breakdown later. BTW, if a film earn $10B then it will not destabilize economy. And, in case of James Cameron, there are endless possibilities, so it might gross $15B and possibly $20B.

[LPLC]

$800M DOM / $800M China / $2Bn overseas

Let's try $3,5Bn for Avatar 2.

[marveldcfox]

I am curious to see the first teaser trailer. Hoping to see something in cinemacon or comic con. Ah 2009! The doom and gloom surrounding Avatar was amazing to witness. The worldwide imax preview events, 2nd trailer and reviews changed the tide completely.

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, LPLC said:

$800M DOM / $800M China / $2Bn overseas

Let's try $3,5Bn for Avatar 2.

I think closer to 1.5B China.

[Issac Newton]

Rough Breakdown:

DOM : $1.5B

China : $1B

Asia : $1B

Europe : $1B

South America : $300M

Middle East &Africa : $150M

Russia &CIS territories : $150M

Oceania : $100M

 

Total : $5B /$5000M

 

China Box office is improving exponentially, not in multiple. So, $2B is also possible there.

[XXR vs XXR]

I was crunching some numbers and here’s what I came up for bull, base and bear predictions. All predictions assume zero COVID restrictions anywhere, a full release schedule and ER being roughly the same as today…

 

BULL

$900M Domestic

$1,000M China

$1,600M OS - China

 

BASE

$600M Domestic

$700M China

$1,200M OS - China

 

BEAR

$400M Domestic

$450M China

$900M OS - China

[Issac Newton]

Finally, we all are getting a long range forecast from $3.5B - $10B.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Finally, we all are getting a long range forecast from $3.5B - $10B.

Nah we definitely all aren’t. 

 

$3.5B is the top end of my bull scenario. My actual prediction is $2B - $2.5B.

[LPLC]

28 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Rough Breakdown:

DOM : $1.5B

China : $1B

Asia : $1B

Europe : $1B

South America : $300M

Middle East &Africa : $150M

Russia &CIS territories : $150M

Oceania : $100M

 

Total : $5B /$5000M

 

China Box office is improving exponentially, not in multiple. So, $2B is also possible there.

lmao $1,5Bn DOM ?? I think there is less than a 1% chance that this will happen.

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Nah we definitely all aren’t. 

 

$3.5B is the top end of my bull scenario. My actual prediction is $2B - $2.5B.

$2B - $2.5B is very low for James Cameron. I think at least $3.5B lining with your Bull 🐂

[Issac Newton]

5 minutes ago, LPLC said:

lmao $1,5Bn DOM ?? I think there is less than a 1% chance that this will happen.

No restriction + 100% occupancy with maximum shows : $1500M. 

 

Minimum $1000M, topping SW:TFA

[LPLC]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Nah we definitely all aren’t. 

 

$3.5B is the top end of my bull scenario. My actual prediction is $2B - $2.5B.

Yes I'm agree $3,5Bn is the top end of my scenario too. $3B is my medium range and $2,5Bn would be my "bad" scenario.

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

No restriction + 100% occupancy with maximum shows : $1500M. 

 

Minimum $1000M, topping SW:TFA

I can see scenarios where this comes in around TFA, but it’s not doing 40% more admissions than TFA did domestically (which is what you’d need for $1,500M.

[hw64]

I don't think China will allow a foreign film to become the highest-grossing film in China again. A domestic film has held that title from mid-2017 onwards — nearly 5 years now — and given that the title is now held, at least in dollar gross, by The Battle at Lake Changjin, it seems especially unlikely that they'll want to relinquish the title, given the content of that film.

 

All that to say: while Avatar 2 might have the potential to be the highest-grossing film of all time in China without any outside meddling, The Battle at Lake Changjin's ~$900m is likely to serve as an upper limit for Avatar 2's potential — that is, unless another Chinese movie increases upon the record before Avatar 2's release.

[Issac Newton]

China's First $1B Film is arriving on 2022.

 

The Battle At Lake Changjin's sequel "Water Gate Bridge" is forecasting $1.2B - $1.5B in Winter 2022 release

Edited November 11, 2021 by Issac Newton

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

I don't think China will allow a foreign film to become the highest-grossing film in China again. A domestic film has held that title from mid-2017 onwards — nearly 5 years now — and given that the title is now held, at least in dollar gross, by The Battle at Lake Changjin, it seems especially unlikely that they'll want to relinquish the title, given the content of that film.

 

All that to say: while Avatar 2 might have the potential to be the highest-grossing film of all time in China without any outside meddling, The Battle at Lake Changjin's ~$900m is likely to serve as an upper limit for Avatar 2's potential — that is, unless another Chinese movie increases upon the record before Avatar 2's release.

I was thinking about this as well. The recent turn towards heavy Chinese nationalism probably won’t allow A2 to take the crown even if the potential is there.

[Issac Newton]

15 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I can see scenarios where this comes in around TFA, but it’s not doing 40% more admissions than TFA did domestically (which is what you’d need for $1,500M.

I think we need government help to organise (compulsory) weekend trips to visit James Cameron's Avatar 2. To attract more people, there must be stage greetings, giveaways, signature, selfie & handshake campaign. 

Edited November 11, 2021 by Issac Newton

[TomCruiseTop]

1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:

China's First $1B Film is arriving on 2022.

 

The Battle At Lake Changjin's sequel "Water Gate Bridge" is forecasting $1.2B - $1.5B in Winter 2022 release

We also have to consider inflation/ER in 12 months time. That 1.2B could easily be 1.5B/2B in terms of value now.

[TomCruiseTop]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Rough Breakdown:

DOM : $1.5B

China : $1B

Asia : $1B

Europe : $1B

South America : $300M

Middle East &Africa : $150M

Russia &CIS territories : $150M

Oceania : $100M

 

Total : $5B /$5000M

 

China Box office is improving exponentially, not in multiple. So, $2B is also possible there.

This I disagree with. I think the DOM will be 600-800M, but the ER/Dollar will be so depressed all of your foreign numbers double.

[Noctis]

10 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Rough Breakdown:

DOM : $1.5B

China : $1B

Asia : $1B

Europe : $1B

South America : $300M

Middle East &Africa : $150M

Russia &CIS territories : $150M

Oceania : $100M

 

Total : $5B /$5000M

 

China Box office is improving exponentially, not in multiple. So, $2B is also possible there.