Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Sheldon Cr]

42 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I feel you, I'm trying to not make conclusive statements to not Jinx it, we just have to be patient for another few weeks, I think trend will be fairly obvious then!

 

This casting annoucement is almost as shocking as the foolish on here stating no one cares about Avatar....

 

 

 

I give you the new....

 

 

Noo just nooo!!😨😨😨

 

Edited May 19, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[Sheldon Cr]

10 hours ago, NCsoft said:

I feel you, I'm trying to not make conclusive statements to not Jinx it, we just have to be patient for another few weeks, I think trend will be fairly obvious then!

 

Not out of the woods but the fat lady as they say is humming a few bars...Avatar holds on to the ww crown to be announced!!😉😎

Edited May 19, 2019 by Sheldon Cr

[Pure Spirit]

Let’s recap:

 

1) Endgame supporters aren’t even “thinking” about Avatar anymore, $3B is the goal

 

2) Looks like $3B is out of reach but at least Avatar is going down.

 

3) Wont beat Avatar by much but it’s a lock

 

4) it’s gonna be close but Endgame has a huge advantage

 

5) it’s gonna be close but Avatar has an advantage

 

Is turning into

 

6) That opening weekend sure was big huh?? 😭😭😭😭😭

 

 

Edited May 19, 2019 by Pure Spirit

[TomCruiseTop]

25 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Let’s recap:

 

1) Endgame supporters aren’t even “thinking” about Avatar anymore, $3B is the goal

 

2) Looks like $3B is out of reach but at least Avatar is going down.

 

3) Wont beat Avatar by much but it’s a lock

 

4) it’s gonna be close but Endgame has a huge advantage

 

5) it’s gonna be close but Avatar has an advantage

 

Is turning into

 

6) That opening weekend sure was big huh?? 😭😭😭😭😭

 

 

Hubris is a wonderful thing.

[Crainy]

The funny thing is, back when everyone was acting like Endgame over Avatar was a lock, I told you guys that it was far from certain. Avatar just made an astonishing amount of money, even if you take inflation out of the equation. And it's almost as if superhero movies don't have the reach that some people think they have.

 

Anyways, we are not out of the woods yet, but it's looking less and less like Endgame will make it there. 

[IronJimbo]

13 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

Avatar 2 will make somewhere between $1 billion and $7 billion when it's released in (insert possible date).

inaccurate, floor too low

[Crainy]

After watching Endgame, I'm also really glad that it's looking like it won't beat Avatar, I thought Endgame was quite terrible, unfortunately. 

[Pure Spirit]

Let me be crystal clear, I still think Endgame will pass Avatar, but it's hilarious how the narrative has changed. As @Sheldon Cr said, the fat lady is humming a few bars. Far From Home is Endgame's best chance to blemish Avatar 2's marketing.

 

After some thought, I do not think Disney will spend excess money to put Endgame over the top (e.g., buying $10M worth of empty seats). I don't see how it benefits them. Avatar 2 is coming soon and needs that for marketing more than MCU movie #43. Besides, an Avatar re-release would easily make some decent coin and spank Endgame back to #2.

 

I do think desperate fans are already buying empty seats on behalf of Disney, if /r/marvelstudios is anything to go by. 

 

"We're in the Spendgame now" 

 

[stealthyfrog]

27 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

Let me be crystal clear, I still think Endgame will pass Avatar, but it's hilarious how the narrative has changed. As @Sheldon Cr said, the fat lady is humming a few bars. Far From Home is Endgame's best chance to blemish Avatar 2's marketing.

  

After some thought, I do not think Disney will spend excess money to put Endgame over the top (e.g., buying $10M worth of empty seats). I don't see how it benefits them. Avatar 2 is coming soon and needs that for marketing more than MCU movie #43. Besides, an Avatar re-release would easily make some decent coin and spank Endgame back to #2.

  

I do think desperate fans are already buying empty seats on behalf of Disney, if /r/marvelstudios is anything to go by. 

 

"We're in the Spendgame now" 

 

I guess I shouldn't be too surprised since it's the Marvel Studios subreddit, but I still can't wrap my head around why people brag about financially supporting a $20 billion franchise. Fandom is one hell of a drug, I guess

[JimiQ]

4 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

Let me be crystal clear, I still think Endgame will pass Avatar, but it's hilarious how the narrative has changed. As @Sheldon Cr said, the fat lady is humming a few bars. Far From Home is Endgame's best chance to blemish Avatar 2's marketing.

 

After some thought, I do not think Disney will spend excess money to put Endgame over the top (e.g., buying $10M worth of empty seats). I don't see how it benefits them. Avatar 2 is coming soon and needs that for marketing more than MCU movie #43. Besides, an Avatar re-release would easily make some decent coin and spank Endgame back to #2.

 

I do think desperate fans are already buying empty seats on behalf of Disney, if /r/marvelstudios is anything to go by. 

 

"We're in the Spendgame now" 

 

 

Disney gets 45-55% of Endgame earnings, but only probably 25% of Avatar/Avatar2 earnings, because they don't own lightstorm. You do the math 😉

[TomCruiseTop]

6 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

Let me be crystal clear, I still think Endgame will pass Avatar, but it's hilarious how the narrative has changed. As @Sheldon Cr said, the fat lady is humming a few bars. Far From Home is Endgame's best chance to blemish Avatar 2's marketing.

 

After some thought, I do not think Disney will spend excess money to put Endgame over the top (e.g., buying $10M worth of empty seats). I don't see how it benefits them. Avatar 2 is coming soon and needs that for marketing more than MCU movie #43. Besides, an Avatar re-release would easily make some decent coin and spank Endgame back to #2.

  

I do think desperate fans are already buying empty seats on behalf of Disney, if /r/marvelstudios is anything to go by. 

 

"We're in the Spendgame now" 

 

Those people need help. Disney really is amazing. 

[Deep Wang]

21 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Hubris is a wonderful thing.

 

Yet you predict how much for Avatar 2-5?  I only hope I remember this post in 3 years when the dust has settles on what A2 made.

 

11 hours ago, stealthyfrog said:

I guess I shouldn't be too surprised since it's the Marvel Studios subreddit, but I still can't wrap my head around why people brag about financially supporting a $20 billion franchise. Fandom is one hell of a drug, I guess

 

And all the Cameron Stans in this thread aren't going to brag about seeing Avatar 2-5 as many times as possible?  With how much they expect them to make it will be the exact same thing, especially once there's a chance one of them might not outgross Endgame.  

[Deuce66]

Live shooting in New Zealand starts today.

 

 

 

[Deuce66]

 

When one journey ends, another begins — see any familiar Game of Thrones faces at the Avatar sequels live-action kickoff event?

 

 

 

 

[Deuce66]

12 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

Let me be crystal clear, I still think Endgame will pass Avatar, but it's hilarious how the narrative has changed. As @Sheldon Cr said, the fat lady is humming a few bars. Far From Home is Endgame's best chance to blemish Avatar 2's marketing.

 

After some thought, I do not think Disney will spend excess money to put Endgame over the top (e.g., buying $10M worth of empty seats). I don't see how it benefits them. Avatar 2 is coming soon and needs that for marketing more than MCU movie #43. Besides, an Avatar re-release would easily make some decent coin and spank Endgame back to #2.

 

I do think desperate fans are already buying empty seats on behalf of Disney, if /r/marvelstudios is anything to go by. 

 

"We're in the Spendgame now" 

 

 

Disney is not going to spend $1 to push Endgame to #1 worldwide. Disney didn't become Disney by making stupid business decisions, yes they make (un)intended mistakes along the way but to simply toss money away? no that's dumb. 

 

As for fans wanting to buy seats for no reason, I can't tell them what to do with their money but c'mon there must be a better use for it than that. Homeless shelters, food banks, local charities...be your own Avenger. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[stealthyfrog]

2 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

And all the Cameron Stans in this thread aren't going to brag about seeing Avatar 2-5 as many times as possible?  With how much they expect them to make it will be the exact same thing, especially once there's a chance one of them might not outgross Endgame.  

They cray cray too. Hopefully nobody ITT actively buys Avatar 2 tickets to try to beat Endgame

[TomCruiseTop]

3 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Yet you predict how much for Avatar 2-5?

$3B is the floor. 

[NCsoft]

9 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

$3B is the floor. 

I'm a little worried about Avatar 3, but I think Avatar 2-5 averaging above 3B+ is a very strong possibility. 

[Pure Spirit]

12 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

$3B is the floor. 

We throw numbers around jokingly, sometimes not, and then haters come in and say we're just as crazy as those "spendgame" people. We bragged about seeing Alita because we wanted a friggin' sequel, not because we wanted to line the pockets of Jimbo. Predictions of $4B and $5B are assuming the quality is on the level of his previous two movies, which of course is no guarantee.

 

Anyway, if it's an average movie (which I think is nearly impossible for James Cameron to do, considering his storytelling talents especially if you include Strange Days and Alita).... but... if you allow for it to be of average quality, I think the floor is near $2B. Domestic will be lower but foreign will be higher. The domestic/foreign ratio could be extreme (something like a 20/80 split). The opening week for Avatar 2 is going to be huge and we've just been shown how fast a movie can get to $2B on the back of its prequel. Avatar 2 has a wider audience to pull from, and a lot of nostalgia (Jurassic World and Incredibles 2 showed us that old nostalgia pays big $$$), so Avatar 2 will get a LOT of money before people realize it's a boring 3 hour slog with a third-rate villain and a contrived plot that doesn't make a lick of sense.

 

If the marketing is bad as well, and doesn't play off any nostalgia, I guess the floor is near $1.5B? Lost Kingdom is probably the best comp for this, it can't do worse than that utterly retarded movie. Hard to see it going lower than that under any reasonable circumstances, yet I see that number thrown around as an estimate for Avatar 2's final gross quite a lot. Sure, it COULD happen but it ain't bloody likely. 

 

[Mod Edit:Could we please remove the word "retard" or "retarded" from our vocabulary?  Their's rarely a context when it is warranted.  It's use to describe others or even a mediocre film as is the case here is definitely not warranted.]

 

If you want to be pedantic, the absolute rock bottom floor if James Cameron releases 3 hours of a turd spinning on the screen is of course lower than $1.5B, but when we're talking about floors for movies that haven't been released, I think it's understood we're referring to a low yet unspecified percentile, not the 0.0001 percentile which of course is lower than $1.5B.

 

I would consider it a "flop" if it makes less than the first Avatar, because I don't see it doing that unless it's of significantly inferior quality to the first, considering the tremendous growth in foreign markets (Avatar 2 is going to make its predecessor's gross in China in its first weekend). And for James Cameron, releasing an average movie would be like releasing a flop for any other mere mortal director.

 

EDIT: But more importantly than it making more than the first Avatar, to me, is that it's a damn good movie. Just like with Alita, I'm much happier that it was good and made $400M than if it was bad and made a billie. Usually those go hand in hand but not always.

[POTUS 2020]

This just in: Avatar 2 delayed again to 2024

Cameron is now working on an Avatar 1 reboot 

well, a reboot was over due in this day and age

they did 3 spidey 1s in 15 years

 

Is there a deadpool for cameron finishing the sequels? he'll be older than Eastwood by the time they are out