Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deuce66]

I agree with others who are saying that Endgame will come up short, close but no cigar. 

 

Endgame breakdown by week

Apr 23-25 (previews): $60,000,000
Apr 26-May 2: $413,894,638
May 3-9: $186,551,101
May 10-16: $80,949,131
May 17-23: $39,936,866
May 24-30: $22,320,849 (est)
May 31-Jun6: $11,606,841 (est 48% drop rate)
Jun 7-13: $6,035,557
Jun 14-20: $3,138,490
Jun 21-27: $1,632,015
Balance: $1,700,000
Domestic total est.: $827,765,488 : $830M

 

China: $615M est.
Foreign: $1.29B est.

 

Total: $2.735 B est.
 

[JimiQ]

14 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I believe the potential is out there for a $4-5 billion movie right now. It would just take something truly special. A 4-quadrant film across all markets. It would basically have to be what TFA was domestically, everywhere. Will Avatar 2 be that film? Maybe. I just personally don't see it at this time. Once marketing starts and we see promotion and response to the film, maybe that changes. 
 

I don't think will ever again see a high opening movie to be also leggy. The current market just doesn't support that and trends are going opposite way.

 

If something can outgross Avatar it's either going to be another super event like Avengers vs X-men (if X-men will be well made and well received) or some weird crossover of Dinosaurs vs Fast franchise  or something completely new from visionary director with high-enough budget and curiosity factor like Arrival but bigger and better (= less complicated for GA to understand)

[Juby]

10 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

Endgame breakdown by week

Domestic total est.: $827,765,488 : $830M

 

China: $615M est.
Foreign: $1.29B est.

 

Total: $2.735 B est.
 

 

China is $629M.

 

Foreign could be lower, $1.285B.

 

Domestic should be higher, a little bit over $840M. Endgame will be over $2.755B worldwide.

[Crainy]

I'm pretty confident that when adjusted for inflation, no movie will outgross Avatar in the next 10 years, probably even much much longer than that, for several decades. 

 

And even when taking inflation into consideration, I think it's unlikely that Avatar will be beaten anytime soon. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Crainy

[FrozenUnicorn]

I bet if these forums had existed when Avatar came out, the thread would have been insane. I imagine it similar to how the Frozen thread was.

[Avatree]

2 hours ago, FrozenUnicorn said:

I bet if these forums had existed when Avatar came out, the thread would have been insane. I imagine it similar to how the Frozen thread was.

these forums did exist when Avatar came out., Can't say i was here though. ask an old member like @baumer what it was like

[FrozenUnicorn]

1 hour ago, Avatree said:

these forums did exist when Avatar came out., Can't say i was here though. ask an old member like @baumer what it was like

 

Oh really? Huh, I didn't think they were because I couldn't find a thread for the first movie when I searched for it.

[Avatree]

Just now, FrozenUnicorn said:

 

Oh really? Huh, I didn't think they were because I couldn't find a thread for the first movie when I searched for it.

the forums were part of box office mojo back then so you won't find anything. think those forums got removed in 2011(?)

[NCsoft]

8 hours ago, Juby said:

 

China is $629M.

  

Foreign could be lower, $1.285B.

 

Domestic should be higher, a little bit over $840M. Endgame will be over $2.755B worldwide.

629+840+1280= 2.749B is probably it's lowest limit, upper limit not sure, but not that much over that I suppose.

2.755B sounds like a good prediction.

Edited May 27, 2019 by NCsoft

[NCsoft]

7 hours ago, Crainy said:

I'm pretty confident that when adjusted for inflation, no movie will outgross Avatar in the next 10 years, probably even much much longer than that, for several decades. 

  

And even when taking inflation into consideration, I think it's unlikely that Avatar will be beaten anytime soon. 

True indeed, there is currently another small narrative shift in the OS thread of people "neutrally" conceding that it's impossible to tell whether Avatar or Endgame had a more impressive run, it's just too close to call . For some reason, a movie grossing less than a movie 10 years ago in a global market that's actually 40% bigger is "too close to call" and "equally as impressive".

 

 

 

 

[NCsoft]

Since I see "inflation" is currently being used as an umbrella term for all factors in the global market that helps to elevate the gross for more recently released blockbusters, I thought it's worth it to separate these factors into 4 different concepts.

 

1. Inflation: The rise in average ticket price in each country over time due to inflation.

2. Market expansion: Rise of developing markets in admissions, China being the biggest example, where admission increased by 800% in 10 years, this is not due to population increase, but rather people getting wealthier, China's population is hardly increasing over the last 10 years.

3. Premium shows: subcharges of premium shows also inflate ticket price but not exactly the same as inflation, since all tickets inflate in price over time. This would be the increase in 3D, "4D", Dolby cinema, IMAX, China FGS, UltraAVX etc resulting in higher box office.

4. Global population increase: drastic rise in population especially Africa and part of Asia/Latin America, just create more potential ticket buyers. These people may not be buying many tickets yet, only going to the theater perhaps once of twice per year, but the potential is there, and if a GOAT run like Titanic happens again, the shattering of the ceiling is going to come from the new population.

 

Just to add more argument points to any random "Avatar VS whatever is hot" debate if you ever happen to get into one. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by NCsoft

[TomCruiseTop]

Imagine EG getting that close and not making it. If I were an MCU fan I'd be losing my mind. 

[Crainy]

35 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

True indeed, there is currently another small narrative shift in the OS thread of people "neutrally" conceding that it's impossible to tell whether Avatar or Endgame had a more impressive run, it's just too close to call . For some reason, a movie grossing less than a movie 10 years ago in a global market that's actually 40% bigger is "too close to call" and "equally as impressive".

 

 

 

 

Yeah sorry, but this isnt even a contest. Endgame had an impressive opening, but at no point during its run did it ever stand the chance of reaching Avatars run when adjusted for inflation and other factors.

 

Its becoming increasingly clear that Avatar wasnt just a huge run in our current times, but will remain one of the most impressive cinema runs for pretty much the rest of time, like "Gone with the Wind". Those two movies are just in a league of its own. They were able to capture the imagination of basically an entire generation and populace, regardless of demographic.

[TomCruiseTop]

Imagine this - Disney remakes GwtW... Jim directs. 100 TRILLION WORLDWIDE. 

[IronJimbo]

37 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

Since I see "inflation" is currently being used as an umbrella term for all factors in the global market that helps to elevate the gross for more recently released blockbusters, I thought it's worth it to separate these factors into 4 different concepts.

 

1. Inflation: The rise in average ticket price in each country over time due to inflation.

2. Market expansion: Rise of developing markets in admissions, China being the biggest example, where admission increased by 800% in 10 years, this is not due to population increase, but rather people getting wealthier, China's population is hardly increasing over the last 10 years.

3. Premium shows: subcharges of premium shows also inflate ticket price but not exactly the same as inflation, since all tickets inflate in price over time. This would be the increase in 3D, "4D", Dolby cinema, IMAX, China FGS, UltraAVX etc resulting in higher box office.

4. Global population increase: drastic rise in population especially Africa and part of Asia/Latin America, just create more potential ticket buyers. These people may not be buying many tickets yet, only going to the theater perhaps once of twice per year, but the potential is there, and if a GOAT run like Titanic happens again, the shattering of the ceiling is going to come from the new population.

 

Just to add more argument points to any random "Avatar VS whatever is hot" debate if you ever happen to get into one. 

That 40% number happens to work quite well if you look at the top 10 films and average them.

 

Excluding Avatar and Endgame.

 

2009 - Average of top 10 highest grossing films of the year worldwide - 679m

2018 - Average of top 10 highest grossign films of the year worldwide - 1108m

 

A 38% increase.

[XXR vs XXR]

Anyone who believes Avatar didn’t have an absolutely insane run is delusional. In terms of how astonishing it was, it’s second only to Titanic in my lifetime. It was a outlier for sure. An equivalent run in 2019 is about $4.3 billion (as a percentage of the entire market).

 

I don’t believe A2 will have an equivalent run in 2021. It’s going to do amazing, but I don’t see it as being the next outlier like Avatar and Titanic were. However, we are due for the next outlier based on the historical cycle, and I’m curious what it’ll be. It would also be fascinating if no film can ever do it again, and we merely get incremental increases going forward. Can a film ever again do what Avatar or Titanic did (+50% or more over the record)?

 

I’m not so sure. 

[NCsoft]

31 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

That 40% number happens to work quite well if you look at the top 10 films and average them.

 

Excluding Avatar and Endgame.

 

2009 - Average of top 10 highest grossing films of the year worldwide - 679m

2018 - Average of top 10 highest grossign films of the year worldwide - 1108m

  

 A 38% increase.

That's amazing! I didn't even think of calculating that. That does perfectly align with the 40% global increase in box office from 2009 to 2019, all the more amazing considering that narrative with how much exchange rate helps films in 2009, well, I guess that amazing exchange rate really did help those movies... to gross 38% less!! 

This also raises another interesting point, people argued that you can't scale up film grosses in accordance to global increase because gross just don't scale up that way. I kind of agree with that. But in this instance, they kind of do scale up with global box office increase! 

The argument that movies don't scale up to increasing global gross is either too much competition, and people loving local fares much more than Hollywood. The counter argument to that is: Internet connectivity brings people together, and people in developing countries are getting more attune to global culture on a scale not seen before. They'll go to local films, but they'll also go to Hollywood films. It's a small world now and people aren't all that different. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Anyone who believes Avatar didn’t have an absolutely insane run is delusional. In terms of how astonishing it was, it’s second only to Titanic in my lifetime. It was a outlier for sure. An equivalent run in 2019 is about $4.3 billion (as a percentage of the entire market).

 

I don’t believe A2 will have an equivalent run in 2021. It’s going to do amazing, but I don’t see it as being the next outlier like Avatar and Titanic were. However, we are due for the next outlier based on the historical cycle, and I’m curious what it’ll be. It would also be fascinating if no film can ever do it again, and we merely get incremental increases going forward. Can a film ever again do what Avatar or Titanic did (+50% or more over the record)?

 

I’m not so sure. 

The thing is now that Endgame is able to make that sorta money and TFA/IW can too.

 

Yeah I'm thinking 50%+ is in play for our guy Jim.

 

 

[Barnack]

27 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

2009 - Average of top 10 highest grossing films of the year worldwide - 679m

2018 - Average of top 10 highest grossign films of the year worldwide - 1108m

 

A 38% increase.

There is no End Game in 2018, so I imagine you didn't exclude Infinity War from that year average, 1108 would go down to 1003m

 

For the total:

 

2009: 29.4 billion

2018: 41.1 billion

 

Almost exact same 39.8%

 

If it became more top heavy at the same time soem of the growth also include new China blockbuster.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Barnack said:

There is no End Game in 2018, so I imagine you didn't exclude Infinity War from that year average, 1108 would go down to 1003m

 

For the total:

 

2009: 29.4 billion

2018: 41.1 billion

 

Almost exact same 39.8%

 

If it became more top heavy at the same time soem of the growth also include new China blockbuster.

I was excluding Endgame and Avatar, Infinity War is a seperate film.