Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I was excluding Endgame and Avatar, Infinity War is a seperate film.

I am maybe a bit slow, but I really fail to understand what excluding EndGame from the 2018 global box office would mean in pratice, it is a 2019 release.

Edited May 27, 2019 by Barnack

[NCsoft]

49 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

2009 - Average of top 10 highest grossing films of the year worldwide - 679m

2018 - Average of top 10 highest grossign films of the year worldwide - 1108m

 

A 38% increase.

Wait I just realized something...

Assuming your numbers are correct, that's not a 38% increase. The calculation of increase is almost always done base on the previous (smaller number), so the calculation should go like this:

(1108-679) / 679 * 100 = 63.2% increase. 

Edited May 27, 2019 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Barnack said:

I am maybe a bit slow, but I really fail to understand what excluding EndGame from the 2018 global box office would mean in pratice, it is a 2019 release.

Perhaps I'm being confusing!? If 2019 was to have complete dataset I would remove Endgame from it.

Maybe I'm playing with the numbers too much, perhaps better to look at the number 2 to number 10 of each year? Probably would give the same results.

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald    653.7
Deadpool 2    785
Mission: Impossible - Fallout    791.1
Venom (2018)    855
Bohemian Rhapsody    903.2
Aquaman    1147.8
Incredibles 2    1242.8
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom    1309.5
Black Panther    1346.9
Avengers: Infinity War    2048.4

 

average is 1108m

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

Maybe I'm playing with the numbers too much, perhaps better to look at the number 2 to number 10 of each year? Probably would give the same results.

One way could be removing special outlier (certain amount of std dev amount above the average top 10), so if one year have 2 special movie it would remove both), but yes going with the top movies is probably a better way to go than looking directly at global box office change.

 

Some of the global box office increase come from for example a new China blockbuster industry,  that do not really help an hollywood movie make more, but at the same time the industry became more top heavy helping the biggest title, it take those force into account better.

 

Maybe I will try to do it from the start, and using a different amount of standard deviation to catch out liner and score the movies relative to how well they did relative to big movies of their time (maybe include the year just before and just after into it, many movie are holiday release like Avatar and half a 2009, half 2010 more than a pure 2009 affair, same for Force Awaken)

[XXR vs XXR]

2009, 2 - 10: $705.48m average

2018, 2 - 10: $1.004b average

 

Taking away the outlier number ones, those are the averages of the rest of the top 10 for those years. Assuming a 2.5% global increase in 2019, that would mean a film would need to make right around $4 billion this year to equal what Avatar did in 2009 (based on scale.)

 

Endgame making $2.75b in 2019 is comparable to making $1.92b in 2009. Extremely impressive but a notch below Avatar. 

[NCsoft]

OK I did similar calculation but for Number 2-Number 10 highest grossing films 2009 to 2018, excluding both Avatar and Infinity War

It comes to this:

2009: Average #2 to #10 : $705.48M

2018: Average #2 to #10 : $1003.21M

          Increase: 42.2%

edit: looks like VenomXXR already did the exact same  

Edited May 27, 2019 by NCsoft

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

2009, 2 - 10: $705.48m average

2018, 2 - 10: $1.004b average

 

Taking away the outlier number ones, those are the averages of the rest of the top 10 for those years. Assuming a 2.5% global increase in 2019, that would mean a film would need to make right around $4 billion this year to equal what Avatar did in 2009 (based on scale.)

 

Endgame making $2.75b in 2019 is comparable to making $1.92b in 2009. Extremely impressive but a notch below Avatar. 

 

Titanic, on the other hand, is ever further into the stratosphere.....

1997, 2 - 10: $366.1m average 

 

Titanic did $1.843b in 1997. That would be a scale equivalent of roughly $5.18 billion in 2019. By comparison, Avatar and Endgame in 1997 (scale size, not linearly) would be at $1.446b and $978.5m respectively. 

[Pure Spirit]

A story in pictures:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2019 by Pure Spirit

[Avatree]

if you're going to use the top 10 worldwide grosses, i would personally look at the #10 spot.

 

2009 - $467m

2010 - $494m

2011 - $562m

2012 - $624m

2013 - $644m

2014 - $677m

2015 - $630m

2016 - $746m

2017 - $821m

2018 - $654m

 

 

again its 40% same figure increase as barnack said.

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, Avatree said:

if you're going to use the top 10 worldwide grosses, i would personally look at the #10 spot.

 

2009 - $467m

2010 - $494m

2011 - $562m

2012 - $624m

 2013 - $644m

 2014 - $677m

2015 - $630m

2016 - $746m

2017 - $821m

2018 - $654m

  

 

again its 40% same figure increase as barnack said.

2018 number could a bit of an outlier though, geez that number was low.

 800M+ to reach top ten worldwide seems to be the new norm!

[NCsoft]

Thanks @Pure Spirit, that's a full length feature film worthy narrative!

[Pure Spirit]

23 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Titanic, on the other hand, is ever further into the stratosphere.....

1997, 2 - 10: $366.1m average 

 

Titanic did $1.843b in 1997. That would be a scale equivalent of roughly $5.18 billion in 2019. By comparison, Avatar and Endgame in 1997 (scale size, not linearly) would be at $1.446b and $978.5m respectively. 

If social media was around for Titanic, it would've taken over social media completely for weeks/months. Even without social media you could feel Titanic completely washing over our culture. It penetrated deep into countries where people may not have even seen a single foreign film, to people who might not see films in general. It kickstarted a couple nobodies into a couple of the most bankable stars of all time. It didn't just hit the ceiling, it blew the lid right off the global box office ceiling. Avatar is quite an achievement but not on the same level as Titanic. I hope we get to see a movie event like that again someday. Something that pushes the boundaries of cinema further than we ever dreamed, with SFX that hold up strong 30 years later.

[Avatree]

5 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

2018 number could a bit of an outlier though, geez that number was low.

 800M+ to reach top ten worldwide seems to be the new norm!

no I would say more likely that 2017 was the outlier

 

We're almost half way through the year and theres 2 films over 800M. got some way to go for 10 of them.

 

If i had to guess the top 10 for the year:

 

Avengers endgame 2750m

SWEIXTROS 1200m

captain marvel 1127m

lion king 1099m

frozen 2 - 1000m

spiderman far from home - 900m

toy story 4 - 850m

hobbs & shaw 800m

joker - 700m

jumanji 650m

 

 

[NCsoft]

Just now, Avatree said:

no I would say more likely that 2017 was the outlier

 

We're almost half way through the year and theres 2 films over 800M. got some way to go for 10 of them.

 

If i had to guess the top 10 for the year:

 

Avengers endgame 2750m

SWEIXTROS 1200m

captain marvel 1127m

lion king 1099m

frozen 2 - 1000m

 spiderman far from home - 900m

toy story 4 - 850m

hobbs & shaw 800m

joker - 700m

jumanji 650m

 

 

I'm thinking more like this, but we will see at the end of the year:

 

1. Endgame: 2.75B

2. Frozen 2: 1.5B

3. The Lion King: 1.45B

4. Captain Marvel: 1.13B

5. Star Wars: TROS: 1.1B

6. Toy Story 4: 1B

7. Spiderman-FFM: $950M

8.Hobs and Shaw: $900M

9. Jumanji: $850M

10. Alladdin: $800M

------------------------TOP 10----------------------

11. IT: Chapter 2: 780M

12. Joker: $700M

13. The Wandering Earth: 700M

14. Random Chinese movie A

15. Random Chinese movie B  etc.....

 

 

 

[meriodejaneiro]

15 hours ago, Juby said:

 

China is $629M.

 

Foreign could be lower, $1.285B.

 

Domestic should be higher, a little bit over $840M. Endgame will be over $2.755B worldwide.

At this very same point last year, IW made also a 22M Memorial Day we, as Endgame has done. And IW added 51M domestic.

 

Why would Endgame add only 37M where IW added 53?

 

I'd say EG can add up to 60M extra from now on till the end of summer, for a total domestic of 850M+. That would put EG on 1880 os  (actuals) + 850 dom (total projection) = $2.73B. That's 58M away from Avatar. I read somewhere this last week EG made some 26M intl, of which 15M were during the weekend.

 

Could the rest of the summer give some 60M intl. out of a last week total of 26M? Let's see. I bet EG will sharply beat Avatar but we'll have to wait maybe till july-august.

 

 

13 hours ago, Crainy said:

I'm pretty confident that when adjusted for inflation, no movie will outgross Avatar in the next 10 years, probably even much much longer than that, for several decades. 

 

And even when taking inflation into consideration, I think it's unlikely that Avatar will be beaten anytime soon. 

 

5 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Imagine this - Disney remakes GwtW... Jim directs. 100 TRILLION WORLDWIDE. 

speaking of which (GWTW) I don't know if that's been discussed before (i might be highly mistaken here), and speaking of "inflation", Gone with the Wind made according to BOM, 400M, 200M dom + 200M intl ... those 200M dom adjust to 1.8B alone ... I would assume the 200M intl could adjust to 1.8B too (this is where I don't know if I'm right or wrong), so talking of "adjusted" movies, Gone with the Wind adjusts to 3.6B ww, that I think is more than Avatar ww adjusted. 

 

Avatar 760 dom adjusts to 876M "only".

 

Same could apply to Titanic, which original run of 1.8B could adjust to 3.6B + further re-releases (400M extra). 

 

The 10 Commandments 65M dom adjusts to 1.2B (no info about overseas).

 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

12 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

A story in pictures:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Juby]

8 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

At this very same point last year, IW made also a 22M Memorial Day we, as Endgame has done. And IW added 51M domestic.

 

Why would Endgame add only 37M where IW added 53?

 

Because Inifnity War had better legs than Endgame? And weaker competition after Memorial Day last year?

 

Endgame has similar legs to Iron Man 3. IM3 also had Memorial Day weekend on May 24-27th, earn more $$$ during 3-day / 4 day weekend, and after that added around $36.2M domesti. With similar drops, Endgame may finish even slightly under $840 mln, but I think Spider-Man premiere will give the film couple of $$$ and it will be $841-845M.

[TomCruiseTop]

I worry just how much hate A2 will have from the comic book man-children when it comes out. Oh well, all publicity is good publicity. 

[JimiQ]

15 hours ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Titanic, on the other hand, is ever further into the stratosphere.....

1997, 2 - 10: $366.1m average 

 

Titanic did $1.843b in 1997. That would be a scale equivalent of roughly $5.18 billion in 2019. By comparison, Avatar and Endgame in 1997 (scale size, not linearly) would be at $1.446b and $978.5m respectively. 

If you take movies 2-20 it's $1.512b and $1.039b respectively. But we still don't have proper numbers for EG (either it's gross, could be anything from 2680-2750, I took 2700, or yearly gross).

[dignam]

1 hour ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

I worry just how much hate A2 will have from the comic book man-children when it comes out. Oh well, all publicity is good publicity. 

 Dont confuse real comic fans with hype comic fans. 

 

I'm a marvel and die hard wolverine fan since over 30 years. Ans just like that a cameron fan. Terminator2, Aliens, Avatar are my alltime favorite movies and cameron my all time favorite director.

 

As a real comic fan you can be marvel fan and a cameron fan.