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Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

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1 hour ago, NCsoft said:

Thinking 180-200M OW, and 4X+ legs at least.

The reason being despite A2 being a sequel, it's awareness is fairly low, and recently I've talked to people who are not even aware of its existence. So this is definitely not a TFA or Endgame situation, even though I'm sure Disney will try their best to boost its awareness for the next 2+ years, so awareness will be higher and being a sequel helps, but I still think to an extent, there's going to be some degree of "discovering Pandora and Avatar again" going on, basically, increase attendance through great WOM, which is basically a Cameron tradition at this point. A run similar to TFA and Endgame would be kind of boring to track anyway. 

An interesting factor is that it could have the same first POTC effect on some people thanks to the Pandora ride Flight Of Passage at Disney's Animal Kingdom in Orlando which raked up a lot of visitors since 2018. I checked the youtube comments underneath some POV ride videos and there are people (young kids of course) that love the ride without any prior Avatar knowledge or pre-conceived bias. Like being skeptical and going in blind then were exiting the ride all emotional and mind-blown, wanting to go back again asap. For them, the Avatar sequel could very well be the movie based on the popular Disney's Animal Kingdom ride.

Edited by dashrendar44
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6 hours ago, dashrendar44 said:

 An interesting factor is that it could have the same first POTC effect on some people thanks to the Pandora ride Flight Of Passage at Disney's Animal Kingdom in Orlando which raked up a lot of visitors since 2018. I checked the youtube comments underneath some POV ride videos and there are people (young kids of course) that love the ride without no prior Avatar knowledge or pre-conceived bias. Like being skeptical and going in blind then were exiting the ride all emotional and flustered wanting to go back again asap. For them, the Avatar sequel could very well be the movie based on the popular Disney's Animal Kingdom ride.

True, and @IronJimbo also mentioned this before, I think Flight of Passage ride might be a better advertisement for Avatar than toy and other merchandise sales (which I'm sure at some point Disney will get it going). The massive attendance of World of Avatar should lead to significant hype for the sequel, despite all the "cultural relevancy" talks. Can't wait to see Disney's promotional efforts in the next 2+ years, I think they know much more than online Marvel fanboys that they've got something special on their hands. 

Edited by NCsoft
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10 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

1.2 billion dollars / $opening weeknd = legs

 

so if it opens small with 100m it will have 12x legs, 200 it has 6x, 300 it will have 4x legs.

 

 

lmao, it sucks that I have to wait 2.5 years to get my two months of Gold from you.

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3 hours ago, NCsoft said:

True, and @IronJimbo also mentioned this before, I think Flight of Passenger ride might be a better advertisement for Avatar than toy and other merchandise sales (which I'm sure at some point Disney will get it going). The massive attendance of World of Avatar should lead to significant hype for the sequel, despite all the "cultural relevancy" talks. Can't wait to see Disney's promotional efforts in the next 2+ years, I think they know much more than online Marvel fanboys that they're got something special on their hands. 

Everyone on that ride is off to the Avatar 2 opening weekend

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14 minutes ago, tawasal said:

@IronJimbo You are building up this movie so much and setting too much expectations on it, that you are bound to be disappointed when it does 1bn or 2bn WW. 

The arrogance needed to know its making 1b or 2b... Do you know whose making this film?

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8 minutes ago, tawasal said:

 

How about 500m DOM and 700m Overseas. That's 1.2bn. 

The 1st one had a OS/DOM ratio of 2,7 to 1. I'd be surprised if that changes drastically for the sequel. So with 500m DOM we get 1300m OS.

Edited by Elessar
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58 minutes ago, Elessar said:

The 1st one had a OS/DOM ratio of 2,7 to 1. I'd be surprised if that changes drastically for the sequel. So with 500m DOM we get 1300m OS.

With the growth of China and Cameron's movies over-performance overseas as a rule, applying a higher ratio (e.g., Alita with 3.7:1) might be more accurate, instead of just using the first one (OS ratios for blockbusters have been trending upwards in general). That gets you 1850m OS with a 500 DOM. So a $1B WW comes with a $220M DOM, or around 29% of the original's DOM.

 

$220M DOM for Avatar 2. 🤔

 

Wonder how many people throwing out $1B for Avatar 2 wanna put money on $220M DOM.

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Maybe but i think Alita is a more extreme case since it grossed relatively so low pretty much everywhere except China, which - being a huge market - skews the picture. Unless Avatar 2 does like 800m in China...

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57 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

With the growth of China and Cameron's movies over-performance overseas as a rule, applying a higher ratio (e.g., Alita with 3.7:1) might be more accurate, instead of just using the first one (OS ratios for blockbusters have been trending upwards in general). That gets you 1850m OS with a 500 DOM. So a $1B WW comes with a $220M DOM, or around 29% of the original's DOM.

 

$220M DOM for Avatar 2. 🤔

 

Wonder how many people throwing out $1B for Avatar 2 wanna put money on $220M DOM.

I think there are as few people throwing down on 1.2B for Avatar as there saying 4.2

 

My super brave prediction. 1.3-4.1

 

Edited by cdsacken
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16 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

With the growth of China and Cameron's movies over-performance overseas as a rule, applying a higher ratio (e.g., Alita with 3.7:1) might be more accurate, instead of just using the first one (OS ratios for blockbusters have been trending upwards in general). That gets you 1850m OS with a 500 DOM. So a $1B WW comes with a $220M DOM, or around 29% of the original's DOM.

 

$220M DOM for Avatar 2. 🤔

 

Wonder how many people throwing out $1B for Avatar 2 wanna put money on $220M DOM.

alita is a pretty terrible example because it flopped in USA. unless you are expecting avatar 2 to flop in the domestic market I don't see the relevance.

 

 

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar It goes below 2 billion, I'll delete my account.

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45 minutes ago, Avatree said:

alita is a pretty terrible example because it flopped in USA. unless you are expecting avatar 2 to flop in the domestic market I don't see the relevance.

 

 

@IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar It goes below 2 billion, I'll delete my account.

Alita beat expectations in the USA by a large margin, it grossed its total DOM tracking in its OW. It may have "flopped" but it exceeded expectations significantly (people already forget how miserable the expectations were for Alita). I think Alita's DOM/Foreign ratio is roughly in line with what Avatar 2 should pull, given the growth in Asian markets. Remember that Avatar grossed $200M in China with 10% the number of screens they currently have, Avatar 2 is probably more likely than not to gross more in China than DOM.

Edited by Pure Spirit
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5 minutes ago, Crainy said:

I think Avatar 2 has a good chance of doing Infinity War/Endgame numbers WW. Im not really sure if it will be able to outgross the first one WW

Blind guess right now I agree. Depends on hype 2 years from now(3-4 possibly if Jim delays a 7th time). Novelty and jump in effects will tiny in comparison to what we saw in 2009. Built in fan base is smaller than MCU fans and they will have had to wait a minimum of 12 years for 1 sequel with no spinoffs or anything else to keep interest up. Quality of the film I suspect will be right up there with the very best of MCU films so that helps.

 

Currency rates will be vastly different as well. Global recession is likely.

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