Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deuce66]

Jon Landau takes on the haters...he's right of course. 

 

http://ew.com/tv/2017/09/27/avatar-2-first-look/?utm_campaign=entertainmentweekly&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social&xid=entertainment-weekly_socialflow_twitter

 

“Nobody is watching Avatar [on home video] or waiting in four-hour lines at Disney’s World of Avatar or going to the sold-out Cirque du Soleil shows because of the film’s 3-D,” he points out. “People respond because of the movie’s characters, themes, and emotions—and we have all that again. When the cast read what Jim Cameron wrote [for the sequels], it hit them with even greater resonance than the first movie.”

 

 

According to producer Jon Landau, the kids of Avatar 2 represent the biggest focus shift from the original movie. “We never had this youthful element before, and that brings a different kind of energy to the film,” he says. “They represent the future generation of Pandora and play a very significant role — not just in this movie but throughout all the movies.”

 

 

Most epic movies have "tragedy" as one of the must tick boxes, I would be willing to bet that not all of these kids will make it to the end of Avatar 5. My guess is that Jake's oldest son gets taken out by Quaritch and one of the kids from the other tribe as well. 

 

 

[Cochofles]

3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Per day. 

Per hour.

[marveldcfox]

_{I have no faith in the current fox marketing team to take this to 1.7+ billion worldwide let alone surpassing first one.  JC will have to be actively involved in marketing and maybe hire a team just for that.}

[Ethan Hunt]

This is gonna do more that 2B. it's also not gonna do more than Avatar

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

This is gonna do more that 2B. it's also not gonna do more than Avatar

region breakdown please

[FantasticBeasts]

26 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

region breakdown please

The first part should be about China alone. The second one....probably a typo. Just avoid "not".

[Barnack]

China is the big question mark, will it grow again between now and 2020 (say 10% a year or something impressive even thought not the 30% of the past) or will it flatline in the next 3 year's like the last 2....

 

There is a possibility of an avatar 2 making significantly over 1 billion in China (but there is also a possibility of doing 450m I imagine), making prediction pretty hard to make, because that movie biggest market is one hard to predict, specially for me.

[a2k]

5 minutes ago, Barnack said:

China is the big question mark, will it grow again between now and 2020 (say 10% a year or something impressive even thought not the 30% of the past) or will it flatline in the next 3 year's like the last 2....

 

There is a possibility of an avatar 2 making significantly over 1 billion in China (but there is also a possibility of doing 450m I imagine), making prediction pretty hard to make, because that movie biggest market is one hard to predict, specially for me.

It could become China's biggest grosser and do close to $1b or even underwhelm while still posting impressive numbers (how KFP3 and TF5 underwhelmed compared to expectations).

 

"Underwhelming but impressive" for AVATAR2 in China will be $450-550m.

 

 

Edited October 1, 2017 by a2knet

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, a2knet said:

It could become China's biggest grosser and do close to $1b or even underwhelm while still posting impressive numbers (how KFP3 and TF5 underwhelmed compared to expectations).

 

"Underwhelming but impressive" for AVATAR2 in China will be $450-550m.

 

 

Depend on the 2020 market and exchange rate.

 

Annual record:

2013: 196m

2014: 320m +124 (63%)

2015: 390m +70 (22%)

2016: 526m +136m (35%)

2017: 858m +332m (63%)

 

The average biggest movie of the year grow was of  45% the last 4 year's.

 

If it is of around 10% the next 3, the biggest movie in China in 2020 could do 1.15b, if it is 15% would do 1.3b.

 

Not sure 450m in China for Avatar and less than half the biggest movie there of the year would be seen as impressive, specially with Avatar 1 making 204 million in 2010 a long standing record that took Transformer 4 to break. Titanic made 145m in China in 2012 (not too far from the top of the year and the biggest Hollywood movie of the year in that market).

 

Impressive will maybe start at 550-600m in 2020 for Avatar 2 in China.

Edited October 1, 2017 by Barnack

[a2k]

6 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Depend on the 2020 market and exchange rate.

 

Annual record:

2013: 196m

2014: 320m +124 (63%)

2015: 390m +70 (22%)

2016: 526m +136m (35%)

2017: 858m +332m (63%)

 

The average biggest movie of the year grow was of  45% the last 4 year's.

 

If it is of around 10% the next 3, the biggest movie in China in 2020 could do 1.15b, if it is 15% would do 1.3b.

 

Not sure 450m in China for Avatar and less than half the biggest movie there of the year would be seen as impressive, specially with Avatar 1 making 204 million in 2010 a long standing record that took Transformer 4 to break. Titanic made 145m in China in 2012 (not too far from the top of the year and the biggest Hollywood movie of the year in that market).

 

Impressive will maybe start at 550-600m in 2020 for Avatar 2 in China.

Thanks. Yes agree with that analysis.

 

600m China + 500m Dom + 900m OS-China = 2b is the minimum it seems A2 will do.

[Plain Old Tele]

I dunno if it does 900m OS-China. A lot of markets have really collapsed compared to the dollar (though of course that could change for the better by release date).

[IronJimbo]

That Papyrus video from Goose is pretty funny.

The free advertisement is already beginning in 2017, the amount of attention and hype this film is going to get will be unreal.

 

Then it will actually live up to the hype and have them coming back in their bus loads.

 

 

 

[FantasticBeasts]

This is so making 1b in China.

Which pretty much guarrantees 2b total.

[peludo]

I agree that China is a wildcard. It can "just" make $400m or more than a billion. IMO, this is the most unpredictable film in a single market I have ever seen.

 

What I see extremely unlikely is to repeat the 1.8b done OS without China. First part had everything in favor: 3D explosion and extremely favorable exchange rates. Cameron can invent another technological revolution and get that people pay again the technology overrun, but he can do nothing about ER.

Edited October 2, 2017 by peludo

[Elessar]

40 minutes ago, peludo said:

What I see extremely unlikely is to repeat the 1.8b done OS without China. 

It's pretty much impossible, largely due to the exchange rates.

 

$2b worldwide that gets thrown around for the sequel seems a rather reasonable prediction but i wouldn't call that the minimum it will do.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Elessar said:

It's pretty much impossible, largely due to the exchange rates.

 

$2b worldwide that gets thrown around for the sequel seems a rather reasonable prediction but i wouldn't call that the minimum it will do.

 

2 hours ago, peludo said:

I agree that China is a wildcard. It can "just" make $400m or more than a billion. IMO, this is the most unpredictable film in a single market I have ever seen.

 

What I see extremely unlikely is to repeat the 1.8b done OS without China. First part had everything in favor: 3D explosion and extremely favorable exchange rates. Cameron can invent another technological revolution and get hat people pay again the technology overrun, but he can do nothing about ER.

You guys aren't accounting for market growth.

 

Only 55% of the foreign total was from Europe. You got south America, India, South Korea, Japan etc

 

the global market has gone up over $10b USD since 2009.. and growing

Edited October 2, 2017 by IronJimbo

[a2k]

2b is close to a lock for A2 imo. less than that and someone open a www thread 

[peludo]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You guys aren't accounting for market growth.

 

Only 55% of the foreign total was from Europe. You got south America, India, South Korea, Japan etc

 

the global market has gone up over $10b USD since 2009.. and growing

Sure, but you need to combine again many factors to have the perfect storm that first part had. I invite you to show us a (reasonable) breakdown by country where we can see a $1.8b without China.

 

It can grow a lot in China (obviously), Latin America, rest of Asia (I do not know why you include Japan when it is even more stable than European markets). But again, ER is a really hard factor to take into account when you look at 2008-2011 grosses. A2 should have to explode in developing markets to compensate the more than probable declining in Europe and the ER factor.

 

Said this, if China delivers 1 billion, then we can start to talk about reaching first part numbers. But that is a very big IF.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

Sure, but you need to combine again many factors to have the perfect storm that first part had. I invite you to show us a (reasonable) breakdown by country where we can see a $1.8b without China.

 

It can grow a lot in China (obviously), Latin America, rest of Asia (I do not know why you include Japan when it is even more stable than European markets). But again, ER is a really hard factor to take into account when you look at 2008-2011 grosses. A2 should have to explode in developing markets to compensate the more than probable declining in Europe and the ER factor.

 

Said this, if China delivers 1 billion, then we can start to talk about reaching first part numbers. But that is a very big IF.

It's extremely hard to find the information needed to do this, I can only really find market size data for China and USA. It's honestly a nightmare and if anyone could link some data I would appreciate it.

 

I'm pretty sure that if Avatar performed the same as it did in 2009, that it would make more money overall.

And in my opinion I think that the market growths and inflation will heavily out weigh the exchange rates.

I just think the extra $100m from Dom from inflation and the extra WHO KNOWS from China, India and others will put it over $3b.

 

That's only if it performs the same as Avatar of course.

 

Let's look at the UK because it actually has information on this in English, it's a really simplistic way of doing it but.. it's all I got to work with.

 

In 2009 the total UK box office was £944m, in 2017 it was £1.24b. That's approximately a 32% increase, let's say it's 38% by 2020 December.

 

In Jan 2010 £1 was worth $1.6 dollars. Today £1 is worth $1.35 dollars, which is a 15% drop. The XR is currently rising for the pound but overall it could be anywhere between a 10-20% drop in £ value from jan 2010 to jan 2021

Avatar released today should make more in the UK.

Edited October 2, 2017 by IronJimbo

[vc2002]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

You guys aren't accounting for market growth.

 

Only 55% of the foreign total was from Europe. You got south America, India, South Korea, Japan etc

 

the global market has gone up over $10b USD since 2009.. and growing

 

When talking about market growth, you better leave India and Japan out of the discussion because these two are already developed markets that don't have any (significant) market growth at all. South Korea had some good market growth over the past few years but it's a relatively small and developed country, so it's going to hit the peak soon.

Edited October 2, 2017 by vc2002