Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

We throw numbers around jokingly, sometimes not, and then haters come in and say we're just as crazy as those "spendgame" people. We bragged about seeing Alita because we wanted a friggin' sequel, not because we wanted to line the pockets of Jimbo. Predictions of $4B and $5B are assuming the quality is on the level of his previous two movies, which of course is no guarantee.

 

Anyway, if it's an average movie (which I think is nearly impossible for James Cameron to do, considering his storytelling talents especially if you include Strange Days and Alita).... but... if you allow for it to be of average quality, I think the floor is near $2B. Domestic will be lower but foreign will be higher. The domestic/foreign ratio could be extreme (something like a 20/80 split). The opening week for Avatar 2 is going to be huge and we've just been shown how fast a movie can get to $2B on the back of its prequel. Avatar 2 has a wider audience to pull from, and a lot of nostalgia (Jurassic World and Incredibles 2 showed us that old nostalgia pays big $$$), so Avatar 2 will get a LOT of money before people realize it's a boring 3 hour slog with a third-rate villain and a contrived plot that doesn't make a lick of sense.

 

If the marketing is bad as well, and doesn't play off any nostalgia, I guess the floor is near $1.5B? Lost Kingdom is probably the best comp for this, it can't do worse than that utterly retarded movie. Hard to see it going lower than that under any reasonable circumstances, yet I see that number thrown around as an estimate for Avatar 2's final gross quite a lot. Sure, it COULD happen but it ain't bloody likely. 

 

If you want to be pedantic, the absolute rock bottom floor if James Cameron releases 3 hours of a turd spinning on the screen is of course lower than $1.5B, but when we're talking about floors for movies that haven't been released, I think it's understood we're referring to a low yet unspecified percentile, not the 0.0001 percentile which of course is lower than $1.5B.

 

I would consider it a "flop" if it makes less than the first Avatar, because I don't see it doing that unless it's of significantly inferior quality to the first, considering the tremendous growth in foreign markets (Avatar 2 ihttp://forums.boxofficetheory.com/s going to make its predecessor's gross in China in its first weekend). And for James Cameron, releasing an average movie would be like releasing a flop for any other mere mortal director.

 

EDIT: But more importantly than it making more than the first Avatar, to me, is that it's a damn good movie. Just like with Alita, I'm much happier that it was good and made $400M than if it was bad and made a billie. Usually those go hand in hand but not always.

 

https://www.thesaurus.com

 

Since you need help finding synonyms for 'dumb.'

[Pure Spirit]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

https://www.thesaurus.com

 

Since you need help finding synonyms for 'dumb.'

Maybe someone can translate Deep Wang’s “wit” for me? 🤨

[Pure Spirit]

3 hours ago, POTUS 2020 said:

This just in: Avatar 2 delayed again to 2024

Cameron is now working on an Avatar 1 reboot 

well, a reboot was over due in this day and age

they did 3 spidey 1s in 15 years

 

Is there a deadpool for cameron finishing the sequels? he'll be older than Eastwood by the time they are out

 

Thanks to you and Deep Wang for bumping the thread, I guess? 

 

Btw you aren’t too far off, there is an Avatar HDR remaster in the pipeline. If Endgame squeaks past I’m sure it’ll get fast tracked 😎

[Deep Wang]

2 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

Maybe someone can translate Deep Wang’s “wit” for me? 🤨

 

7 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

Lost Kingdom is probably the best comp for this, it can't do worse than that utterly retarded movie. 

 

That isn't a word that people should use.  

[Pure Spirit]

17 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

That isn't a word that people should use.  

Well then you're a special kind of person, because if retarded is offensive, then dumb is offensive to mute people, you robotic mong. Use your brain instead of parroting moronic takes you plagiarized from Twitter or your University """professor""". Maybe instead of spending energy running on the euphemistic treadmill, spend some time volunteering for the retarded or adopt one as a foster child. I have more literally retarded adopted foster relatives (~20) in my family than the average person interacts with in their entire lives beyond saying "hi" to the local Walmart greeter. Banning a word doesn't help my foster family at all, in fact it's harmful because euphemisms obscure reality. Retarded is pejorative because it's a bad thing, but that doesn't mean my retarded relatives are bad people, and fortunately they are smart enough to know the difference.

 

Hell, if you're such a righteous person that the word retarded is beneath your grand morality, maybe you should be promoting Jim's movies and movies like them (such as Alita) which have consistent humanist and green values instead of Marvel, who's only moral in their movies in between destroying cities/planets/universes, seem to be whatever neo-liberal take is trending on Twatter, but I can't be sure because I'll be damned if I can remember anything after walking out of a Marvel "film".

[Pure Spirit]

In other news, my father died this week, and I'll be speaking at his funeral Memorial weekend. I'm not here to post an in-memorandum of him, but I will say that Avatar 2 being pushed back a year while being reminded of my own mortality is frustrating. I'm sure more than one other person here in this 8-years-old thread can relate. Not all of us are spring chickens. I empathize more with frustration (such as @IronJimbo) about Disney's business idea to alternate Avatar and Star Wars every Christmas. Cameron, make the wait worth it and drop the movie like a nuclear bomb on the entire industry.

[DeeCee]

Moderation

 

Could we please remove the word "retard" or "retarded" from our vocabulary?  Their's rarely a context when it is warranted.  It's use to describe others or even a mediocre film is definitely not warranted.

 

I know that many in this thread often express concern about use of such terms.

 

Regards

BOT Staff

[cdsacken]

Retarded is a nasty, ignorant, belligerent word only assholes use. I seriously doubt you meant it in the negative connation that the world implies but use idiot, dumbass, moron, ahole, prick etc.

 

Atypical folks have been called this all their life including by assholes like me in highschool. The second smartest guy I knew was called this. Perfect math scores, photographic memorization but zero emotional regulation. At 21 he might have achieved the emotional regulation of a 6 year old but there was nothing he could do. My next door neighbor had an IQ of 160+ and was basically normal but an outcast not understood but I anyone self included. Luckily I wasn't a dbag to him. He's super successful and living proof it doesn't matter. 

 

I wish that word never existed, more so I wish I never used it in the past.

[Pure Spirit]

I won't give a history lesson, I'll stop using the bad no-no word and feast on my 3 points. I hope that satisfies the pitchforks.

[NCsoft]

38 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

In other news, my father died this week, and I'll be speaking at his funeral Memorial weekend. I'm not here to post an in-memorandum of him, but I will say that Avatar 2 being pushed back a year while being reminded of my own mortality is frustrating. I'm sure more than one other person here in this 8-years-old thread can relate. Not all of us are spring chickens. I empathize more with frustration (such as @IronJimbo) about Disney's business idea to alternate Avatar and Star Wars every Christmas. Cameron, make the wait worth it and drop the movie like a nuclear bomb on the entire industry.

Really sorry to hear that, Pure Spirit...

I know what you mean regarding our own mortality, I'm 28 and honest am not planning to go anywhere before I'm at least 90. But when Avatar 2 got delayed for yet another year, I reminded myself to get my blood sugar checked. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by NCsoft

[IronJimbo]

@Pure Spirit

 

Sorry to hear that awful news, all the best champ.

 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

3 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

In other news, my father died this week, and I'll be speaking at his funeral Memorial weekend. I'm not here to post an in-memorandum of him, but I will say that Avatar 2 being pushed back a year while being reminded of my own mortality is frustrating. I'm sure more than one other person here in this 8-years-old thread can relate. Not all of us are spring chickens. I empathize more with frustration (such as @IronJimbo) about Disney's business idea to alternate Avatar and Star Wars every Christmas. Cameron, make the wait worth it and drop the movie like a nuclear bomb on the entire industry.

Sorry to hear this - I've had similar discussions. I'm on the wrong side of 50 myself and think about this more than I care to admit. Hope you're holding up okay Pure - losing a parent is never easy. 

Edited May 21, 2019 by JamesCameronScholar

[cdsacken]

6 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

I won't give a history lesson, I'll stop using the bad no-no word and feast on my 3 points. I hope that satisfies the pitchforks.

No pitchforks, as I said I used a long time ago as well. Sorry about your father, I can't even imagine

 

May he rest in peace.

[Sheldon Cr]

On 5/20/2019 at 12:13 PM, NCsoft said:

I'm a little worried about Avatar 3, but I think Avatar 2-5 averaging above 3B+ is a very strong possibility. 

Yes indeed. Better chances for way over 3 billy than most in fact Jim Scholar the man👍👍

[Deuce66]

If A2 matches the avg. revenue per screen in China from 2009 - we're talking in the $1.5 billion range in China alone, even half of that would be $750 million. I would go with something like this for A2 (for now until the trailers hit). 

 

Domestic: $850 M - there will be no competition of note, I suspect there will be a very strong WOW factor to seeing the Na'vi in these movies, especially when they interact with humans. Think of those million dollar CGI shots in the first movie, improved and used throughout the entire movie. Jaw on the floor type stuff. 

China: $1.0B

Rest of the world: $1.8B 

 

Total: $3.4 to $3.7 B is the range. 

 

 

 

 

[Elessar]

13 hours ago, Pure Spirit said:

In other news, my father died this week

My condolences.

[DAJK]

6 hours ago, Crainy said:

You got to be kidding me. This forum thrives on cynical mindsets, trendy negativity and talking inconsiderate shit about any movie that you dislike (as well as ridiculing those that disagree with you) which is a mindset that is openly embraced by the admins, but "retarded" is where you draw the line? Give me a break. 

Personal attacks are never embraced by the staff, who do really great work here if you ask me. Yea, people can act very cynical about movies and their respective fandoms. But there's a difference between a harsh remark towards a movie, and then towards a person. A word like 'retarded' used in a derogatory manner if pretty disrespectful, and, really, is very different than someone bashing a certain movie or franchise they don't like. 

[DAJK]

@Pure Spirit my condolences to you and your family. I've read that you have a very young child of your own, and I can't imagine how hard it might be for them growing up without a grandfather. Losing a family member, especially one as important to you as a parent, is the hardest thing we ever have to deal with, and I hope you and your family get through this

[KP1025]

3 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

If A2 matches the avg. revenue per screen in China from 2009 - we're talking in the $1.5 billion range in China alone, even half of that would be $750 million. I would go with something like this for A2 (for now until the trailers hit). 

 

Domestic: $850 M - there will be no competition of note, I suspect there will be a very strong WOW factor to seeing the Na'vi in these movies, especially when they interact with humans. Think of those million dollar CGI shots in the first movie, improved and used throughout the entire movie. Jaw on the floor type stuff. 

China: $1.0B

Rest of the world: $1.8B 

 

Total: $3.4 to $3.7 B is the range. 

 

 

 

 

Depending on the rate of domestic ticket price inflation, the first film would adjust to $910-930 million by 2021. That's probably the benchmark Avatar 2 should be aiming for if it has the same phenomenal WOM as the first film. I'm hoping it beats TFA and cracks the $1 billion milestone. Having #1 DOM, OS, and WW crowns again would be very fitting. 

[JimiQ]

8 hours ago, KP1025 said:

Depending on the rate of domestic ticket price inflation, the first film would adjust to $910-930 million by 2021. That's probably the benchmark Avatar 2 should be aiming for if it has the same phenomenal WOM as the first film. I'm hoping it beats TFA and cracks the $1 billion milestone. Having #1 DOM, OS, and WW crowns again would be very fitting. 

But the same canadian take will produce $25m less because of ER. So $890-910m