Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, M37 said:

Even as someone who is not nearly as optimistic about final outcome … 

 

… must also concede that kind of massive result is also very much in the range of plausible outcomes. Because of both the anomaly of the original run and delayed nature of the sequel, don’t think anyone can credibly claim to know for certain how Avatar2 will play out 

Yeah there's a massive range

 

3 to 5 billion dollars worldwide

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

49 minutes ago, Alexdube said:

don't know how credible but showing some scenes with the re-release would be a no-brainer

 

 

 

shouldnt they be blasting that in the ads if true

[Alexdube]

25 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

shouldnt they be blasting that in the ads if true

 

It's a good point, they should announce it I think if it's true. Or maybe they want to make it a surprise, generate some buzz like that?

[NCsoft]

25 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

shouldnt they be blasting that in the ads if true

 

I tend to believe this is true, hopefully we'll see them make a public announcement of this soon; would be stupid not to. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

 

are they going to expand later or are they simply not taking this seriously?

a remastered avatar re-release with maybe a 15 min sneak-peek of 2 is a much bigger deal than a nwh re-release, and that got almost 4k theaters

Edited September 15, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[IronJimbo]

9 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

are they going to expand later or are they simply not taking this seriously?

a remastered avatar re-release with maybe a 15 min sneak-peek of 2 is a much bigger deal than a nwh re-release, and that got almost 4k theaters

 

it's possible only theatres with decent 3D screens are allowed to show

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

it's possible only theatres with decent 3D screens are allowed to show

 

but i want 3 billion

Edited September 15, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[IronJimbo]

16 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

but i want 3 billion

might have to wait for A2, or another china re-release

[Porthos]

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

it's possible only theatres with decent 3D screens are allowed to show

 

While that might be a consideration, I doubt it as one of the few-non PLF theaters that's getting it locally is a 2D only affair for this release.  At least at the moment, as the showtime info might get updated.

 

I think the simpler answer is that Disney is treating this more like the Jaws re-release than other ones years ago. From looking at theaters locally, there is a huge emphasis on theaters with a PLF screen, though even there it's not exclusively yes/no, as a couple of non-PLF theaters have it locally while another theater with a PLF screen, doesn't.

 

But the overall pattern is still clear.  

Edited September 15, 2022 by Porthos

[IronJimbo]

16 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

While that might be a consideration, I doubt it as one of the few-non PLF theaters that's getting it locally is a 2D only affair for this release.  At least at the moment, as the showtime info might get updated.

 

I think the simpler answer is that Disney is treating this more like the Jaws re-release than other ones years ago. From looking at theaters locally, there is a huge emphasis on theaters with a PLF screen, though even there it's not exclusively yes/no, as a couple of non-PLF theaters have it locally while another theater with a PLF screen, doesn't.

 

But the overall pattern is still clear.  

 

Right so the reason it's reduced is to focus on PLF screens you reckon?

They cannot be treating this as a smaller re-release than Spider-man, that would make zero sense.

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Right so the reason it's reduced is to focus on PLF screens you reckon?

They cannot be treating this as a smaller re-release than Spider-man, that would make zero sense.

 

Psst.. No Way Home had a different distributor (and thus probably different internal calculations).

But, yes, overall I think it's a focus on PLF, with some minor exceptions here and there that probably aren't worth focusing on too much (cities without a local PLF screen still getting it, some dine-in theaters getting it, and so on).

Edited September 15, 2022 by Porthos

[Grebacio]

Just found out that all of the theatres in my city will be playing only the dubbed version of the rerelease. Was exicted to see it, but this is a downer 

[ThomasNicole]

Here in Brazil it also have like 2 showtimes per day 

 

Really small re-release

[interiorgatordecorator]

an avatar re-release was never likely to be a massive event, but this re-release seems so small that I think demand might outstrip supply

wonder if theyll be willing to keep it past the 2 weeks

 

but what I really wondering is if this is all really just a ploy to strong-arm theaters into re-buying 3d equipment by denying the re-release to those that dont have it anymore

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

an avatar re-release was never likely to be a massive event, but this re-release seems so small that I think demand might outstrip supply

 

 

Welllll, if Sacto is any indication I don't think "demand outstripping supply" is gonna be that great of a concern.

 

One week-plus out Fri Only/All Showings - Cinemark XD Theaters ONLY:

Century Arden XD:            27/813 tickets sold 

Century Greenback XD:    15/525 tickets sold

Century DOCO XD:           20/645 tickets sold

Century Laguna XD:          10/504 tickets sold

Cinemark Roseville XD:     83/678 tickets sold

 

Not including the lone local Cinemark that doesn't have an XD screen which is showing this as that's not really representative (and it's a low trafficked theater regardless).  Saturday is more or less around the same level from a super casual glance.  

 

Other local theater chains aren't that much different, so I won't provide a full break down of those.

 

Now I do have to add that this is one week out, so still time for tickets to be sold.  But from my super super super limited look at things (mostly observing the patterns in the Tracking Thread on a casual basis) this probably isn't the type of release to utterly explode with walkups.

 

And I also want to add that I am ****NOT****trying to say this isn't going to do well.  Just... maybe trying to temper expectations a little iz all.

[xieh tie]

 

Edited September 16, 2022 by xieh tie

[Deep Wang]

11 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

an avatar re-release was never likely to be a massive event, but this re-release seems so small that I think demand might outstrip supply

wonder if theyll be willing to keep it past the 2 weeks

 

but what I really wondering is if this is all really just a ploy to strong-arm theaters into re-buying 3d equipment by denying the re-release to those that dont have it anymore

 

Why in the world would theaters get rid of 3D equipment?  If you have the equipment in place, you don't throw it away, you just don't use it.

 

Unless you maybe mean that some equipment broke along the way and they didn't want to pay to repair/replace?

[M37]

17 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Why in the world would theaters get rid of 3D equipment?  If you have the equipment in place, you don't throw it away, you just don't use it.

 

Unless you maybe mean that some equipment broke along the way and they didn't want to pay to repair/replace?

I do know that during upgrades - say moving from digital xenon to laser projectors - the 3D capability has been reduced, which is why domestic 3D screens have reduced a bit from the peak - but not by much

 

The re-release is actually a good test run for the 3D hardware and software that hasn’t really been used very much in last few years 

[Deuce66]

Current forecast $6-12 million opening - $12-25 million total. 

 

Box Office Pro - Domestic forecast 

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-box-office-forecast-halloween-ends-and-white-bird-a-wonder-story/

 

• While expectations for Don’t Worry Darling are climbing for opening weekend, sour reviews and an increased likelihood of front-loaded pre-sales driven by Harry Styles fans and the media narrative of the film’s production are cutting into staying power expectancy.

• Darling‘s counterpart “opener” next weekend, the re-release of Avatar, is showing soft momentum in the universe of tracking and early pre-sales so far. While the premium screen presence in IMAX and others, plus a possible back-loaded nature to Cameron’s 2009 epic may still play out in the nextx week, there’s also some concern that it’s predominate availability in 3D will dampen casual moviegoers’ desire to return to theaters for that specific format.

 

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

I do know that during upgrades - say moving from digital xenon to laser projectors - the 3D capability has been reduced, which is why domestic 3D screens have reduced a bit from the peak - but not by much

 

That's a good point, but I have to imagine that's an insane cost and might be 1/2 screens per theater at best, right?

 

1 hour ago, M37 said:

The re-release is actually a good test run for the 3D hardware and software that hasn’t really been used very much in last few years 

Am I crazy or haven't there still been 3D movies?  Like, weren't all the MCU movies last year as well as DS2 and Thor available in 3D?  I'm not saying they did WELL in 3D, but they were huge releases that had at least a few showtimes in 3D, right?  

 

I guess I just don't understand where all this talk started about 3D equipment being unused or whatever is coming from?  I'm so confused lol.

 

In my opinion, this Avatar re-release is a better test run to see how much demand there even is for 3D.

Edited September 16, 2022 by Deep Wang