Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[adaros]

Disney really doing big L not releasing remastered Avatar on Disney+

[FilmFincher]

7 minutes ago, adaros said:

Disney really doing big L not releasing remastered Avatar on Disney+

I reckon they have a carefully chosen date for it going up as part of the lead up to The Way of Water. 

[adaros]

10 minutes ago, FilmFincher said:

I reckon they have a carefully chosen date for it going up as part of the lead up to The Way of Water. 

It can be seen as carefully sabotaging marketing for Avatar 2. We are 27 days till release and many people that don't remember much from first film would for sure want to rewatch it on Disney+, imo should have been put back there when re-release ended. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by adaros

[Porthos]

41 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I mean, if people really dislike 3D they can just wait for actual opening weekend itself. 3D-only preview will only reinforce Avatar 2 as the biggest 3D event in a decade. I mean, I believe all premiere showing will be in 3D too for critics. Also, A2 is frame by frame crafted in 3D, not watching in 3D is like watching TLK or Frozen but without the songs version. Something I would discourage people from doing it. 

 

There's a fine line between "encouraging people to see it in a superior format" and "eat your vegetables, it's good for you".

 

I think a 3:1 ratio is more than fine, especially since it looks like PLFs are gonna be practically all 3D.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, adaros said:

Disney really doing big L not releasing remastered Avatar on Disney+

i heard it was going back online next week, let me try find a source

EDITED: REDACTED: yeah i cant find anything my bad

Edited November 19, 2022 by IronJimbo

[SullyJake]

16 hours ago, Nero said:

Just because ticket prices have increased doesn't automatically guarantee that it'll outgross more than previous one. Look at recent MCU movies couldn't cross 200 mark on OW even with such high ticket prices. 

MCU has lost its spark since Endgame. Firstly, Avatar 1 had better WOM than any MCU movie (or any blockbuster since for that matter) so that alone makes its sequel more anticipated than any of the MCU movies this year. Secondly, none of the MCU movies felt like events. People are happy waiting for Disney plus these days,none of them scream 'cinematic experience' the way Avatar does

 

Box office pro prediction is laughable, it wont open less than 200m. Putting it in the same range as Dominion which came from a poorly revieved predecessor is just trollery. Avatar 1's OW adjusted to around 115m. Avatar 2 will clear 200m with absolute ease. Im honestly surprised so many of you are missing the obvious signs

[SullyJake]

14 hours ago, Maggie said:

I'm playing devil's advocate,  but the First Black Panther made over 700M yet this second one is gonna drop hard. The circumstances are not exactly the same, but i wonder why the hard drop for Wakanda and what it could mean for A2?

Marvel is like walking dead, the main story ended and all the best characters left and now its a slow decline for the franchise. No way home was an outlier for obvious reasons.

[Elessar]

6 minutes ago, SullyJake said:

Box office pro prediction is laughable, it wont open less than 200m.

 

It should clear $150m. Anything less would be a disappointment in my opinion. $200m is a possibility but i would not go as far as to say it's locked.

[adaros]

30 minutes ago, SullyJake said:

Box office pro prediction is laughable, it wont open less than 200m. 

I don't expect 200m ow before Christmas when people are busy also Cameron last two movies were known for crazy legs, repeating viewing and not big OW. Expecting around 140-150m opening weekend now and solid legs.

[Nikostar]

Think the 13 year wait will hurt this movie. Not seeing much hype and it does not help that 3d is not popular anymore. Also I am interested in critics reviews. The audience liked the original way more Ethan critics did.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Nikostar

[SullyJake]

11 minutes ago, adaros said:

I don't expect 200m ow before Christmas when people are busy also Cameron last two movies were known for crazy legs, repeating viewing and not big OW. Expecting around 140-150m opening weekend now and solid legs.

 

Cameron's last 2 movies weren't sequels though and people are always busy at christmas, didnt stop spidey and star wars from opening high. The last time Cameron actually made a sequel, it broke the OW record.

 

Its more like a POTC, first movie was a modest opener and huge crowd pleaser, sequel smahes the OW record. Avatar wont have crazy legs like his last 2 movies, it will have a crazy opening instead

Edited November 19, 2022 by SullyJake

[adaros]

4 minutes ago, SullyJake said:

Avatar wont have crazy legs lile his last 2 movies, it will have a crazy opening instead

I think it will have modest (modest for 2022) OW and modest legs. There won't be crazy hype for OW like with MCU/Spiderman movies that people rush to avoid spoilers, even as sequel Avatar 2 is still not MCU it won't be ultra-front loaded. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by adaros

[SullyJake]

9 minutes ago, Nikostar said:

Think the 13 year wait will hurt this movie. Not see much hype and it does not help that 3d is not popular anymore 

The 3d is not popular anymore because no movie did it better than Avatar. You really think people are going to skip watching this in the format that made it so good in the first place? I personally havent watched a 3d movie since TFA but i'm excited to watch Avatar in the format because it's quite evident from the trailer that those underwater shots will look great. 

 

People wont forget the experience they had with the first. I remember the 3d faze slowing in 2012 until Gravtiy managed around 80% 3d share proving people will pick the format if the movie seems made for it. I think the 3d helps this as people know they wont be able to experience this properly if they dont go to the theatre. This and Top gun are the only 2 movies released this year that are made for the big screen.

[SullyJake]

19 minutes ago, adaros said:

I think it will have modest (modest for 2022) OW and modest legs. There won't be crazy hype for OW like with MCU/Spiderman movies that people rush to avoid spoilers, even as sequel Avatar 2 is still not MCU it won't be ultra-front loaded. 

MCU movies are not the only movies capabable of huge openings. It seems no-one is used to tracking movies that aren't superheros. Lion King, BATB, Incredibles 2, Hunger Games, POTC, Jurassic World all adjust to over 200m OW, none had Avatar levels of hype.

 

Some people have this selling less tickets than the R rated IT, just not happening

Edited November 19, 2022 by SullyJake

[THUNDER BIRD]

17 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

The issue is the underestimation of the film itself.

The film will be visually stunning, everyone knows that, but the copium is that it won't be as visually stunning as the first movie was in 2009 relative to the rest of the field.

I can't wonder why, I watched Avatar re release in September and it looked much better than most Big Hollywood Blockbusters visually. Absolutely stunning experience.

 

And Avatar 2 sneak peek at the end blew Avatar itself away. I have no doubt that audience will be stunned by the visuals in the movie.

 

Plus then it's James Cameron who immersed people back in 2009 in the world of Pandora, and he'll be looking to do that again

Edited November 19, 2022 by THUNDER BIRD

[THUNDER BIRD]

Besides Domestic market is not the main market for Avatar 2.

 

It's the Foreign and it's going to burn down box office in Overseas, it will be unstoppable, unshakable, immovable force that will rip apart anything and everything in its path.

 

Whatever it will make from Domestic will be a bonus. 

[Juby]

19 hours ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

AVATAR dropped roughly 25% from TITANIC adjusted. A similar drop for AVATAR 2 would put it at around $700m.

Avatar adjusted would be $1.02-1.06b. -25% for its sequel, even in the worst case scenario, would be $765m.

 

The first Avatar opened with $77 million in 3,452 theaters with average ticket price $7.89 in Dec 2009 (probably around $10 for this particular film) and huge winter problems on eastern coast during the weekend. The Way of Water will be realeased in at least 4,200 theaters and the average ticket price is around $11 according to google (for this film is should be close to $14). Predicting $135m OW is just laughable, that would be like the same admission as the original, but this is a SEQUEL to the biggest movie of all time for many years, not original project. C'mon!

 

$475m would have been the biggest admission drop for the sequel of the biggest movie of the year (2009) in 33 years (since Back to the Future: Part II and Ghostbusters II). That's not gonna happen. Pro clearly have no idea how to predict this film until presales starts.

 

$154 million OW (OWx2 of the first film) and $600 million domestic (January is empty, no competition until Ant-Man 3) is the bare mininum for Avatar 2.

 

[JustLurking]

Why are people focusing so much on the low range of BOP, I remember seeing them have a range of like 475-725 or something the first go around.

 

Anyway I read that BP2 allegedly has like 13.75 atp, if that's accurate A2 probably goes 15+.

[M37]

5 hours ago, SullyJake said:

Box office pro prediction is laughable, it wont open less than 200m. Putting it in the same range as Dominion which came from a poorly revieved predecessor is just trollery. Avatar 1's OW adjusted to around 115m. Avatar 2 will clear 200m with absolute ease. Im honestly surprised so many of you are missing the obvious signs

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

 

 

this but unironically.