Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[interiorgatordecorator]

saw someone positively describe this as being a kids movie, more of a take-the-kids-to affair than the first one, i'll add an extra 100 million to my ww predict

 

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[danziger]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

This movie doesn't have any massive spoilers that have to be seen in fear of getting leaked. Such was the case with NWH, Endgame, Infinity War, BPWF, TFA (and other SW movies), and DSMoM. Sure, all of those had leaked plots online (mostly on reddit and selective message boards), but there were enough unspoiled folks that needed to see it early to avoid them before they leaked in the wide open.

 

Movies like BP1, TGM, Avatar1, and this do not have that. This movie is a "you have to see what it looks like" rather than "you have to see what happens". But that's a trademark of Cameron's movies and it has worked pretty damn well for him so far.

 

Yeah, Cameron's movies always have such insane rewatch value, they're basically spoiler-proof. Every movie he's done I've enjoyed even more after repeat viewings.

[Sheldon Cr]

4 hours ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

4.25-4.75x

Remember XXR that None of his giant epics  have gotten such a low multiplier.

So I'm going with 6.1x (hoping it gets a 7x or better though)

  Avatar 1 had a 10x multplier btw.

Titanic a 30+x Multi. And Titanic to Avatar(12 year gap) Avatar - Avatar 2(13 year gap)

 

This movie I feel will get a much better  multi than TGM even with a giant OW.

 

Agreed the  on the rewatch value of Cameron films has no rival.

The big question can he get a 7 multiplier with 190-200+ OW.

 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Sheldon Cr

[nguyenkhoi282]

26 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Remember XXR that None of his giant epics  have gotten such a low multiplier.

So I'm going with 6.1x (hoping it gets a 7x or better though)

  Avatar 1 had a 10x multplier btw.

Titanic a 30+x Multi. And Titanic to Avatar(12 year gap) Avatar - Avatar 2(13 year gap)

 

This movie I feel will get a much better  multi than TGM even with a giant OW.

 

Agreed the  on the rewatch value of Cameron films has no rival.

The big question can he get a 7 multiplier with 190-200+ OW.

 

XXR is predicting on the basis of the current market, being realistic and all. The industry landscape has changed drastically in the past decade. I personally think 5x is more than good enough. Anything beyond that, although technically possible, is just wishful thinking and "It's Cameron" is not a data point. 

I understand you but there's reason for others to have more conservative predictions.

[THUNDER BIRD]

4 hours ago, The GOAT said:

it's nowhere near as packed as No Way Home near my area. Looks like international will have to carry this.

 

Edit: With worse exchange rates and many countries in economic decline. 

It doesn't need to be packed like NWH at all. And honestly no one is thinking that it'll open 250 anyways.

 

It just need to release and rest will be taken care of.

[Ronin46]

34 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

XXR is predicting on the basis of the current market, being realistic and all. The industry landscape has changed drastically in the past decade. I personally think 5x is more than good enough. Anything beyond that, although technically possible, is just wishful thinking and "It's Cameron" is not a data point. 

I understand you but there's reason for others to have more conservative predictions.

 

Top Gun just did over 5.5, so I think over 5 is quite possible really. 

[Sheldon Cr]

 

 

50 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

XXR is predicting on the basis of the current market, being realistic and all. The industry landscape has changed drastically in the past decade. I personally think 5x is more than good enough. Anything beyond that, although technically possible, is just wishful thinking and "It's Cameron" is not a data point. 

I understand you but there's reason for others to have more conservative predictions.

Seems other have used past Cameron films to project avatars success. He's entitled to his lowballing of nums sometimes, just as people who put out mor realistic numbers based on Cameron ability to get films to super perform.

Bottomline TGM had a 5x multiplier. Avatar 2 represents bigger story telling, innovation and a one of kind of experience and ontop of that far better audience reactions.

To most who have tracked Bo and won. A 6x-7x multiplier is very realistic and one of these ranges is almost a lock.

If TGM can do it of a 120+ OW. Avatar can definitely  do far better legs of its OW. Hence why bo Champs of the past have A2 with 950-1.1 B domestic  cume off 180-212 Ows predicts.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Update

[Sheldon Cr]

12 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Top Gun just did over 5.5, so I think over 5 is quite possible really. 

I know I think some of these posts talking about realistic, seem to be a bit bias based on deep down some don't want A2 to fly far above Top Gun. Judging by the reviews and Cameron last 2 entries Tgm is outta here. Now we see just how much folks remembered  Avatar. I can't see less than a 5.5-6.4 multi domestically. And this is conservative. Some are predicting 220 with 7x multipliers in comparison. 

Edited December 10, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Sheldon Cr]

21 minutes ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Top Gun just did over 5.5, so I think over 5 is quite possible really. 

What's your ow predict Brother Ronin and the multiplier you think Avatar 2 Way of the Water will get by the end of its domestic  run?

[Sheldon Cr]

3 hours ago, danziger said:

 

Yeah, Cameron's movies always have such insane rewatch value, they're basically spoiler-proof. Every movie he's done I've enjoyed even more after repeat viewings.

A 190-205+ M Ow with 1B domestic run  looking more and more likely indeed. Still laughing at posts that Avatar was forgotten. 🏋‍♀️😎👍

[Sheldon Cr]

6 hours ago, Danhjpn said:

How much is the legs for this movie people expect? 

6x-8x???

 

6.1X . 190 OW , 1.1B

 

More meltdowns if it gets the Cameron 7x plus legs Dan. Definitely possible.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Sheldon Cr]

5 hours ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:

 

I do not think legs will be that large, so....no?

We will see. I'm betting those Titanic and Avatar fans bringing their families are going to suprise.

6x legs for me. 

[IronJimbo]

if TGM got a 5.5x multplier, Avatar 2 can get over 6.

 

If TGM made $580m post opening weekend, Avatar 2 can make $850m (credit to @Porthos)

 

I think the problem people are having here is that they preceive TGM as an almost perfect film. That maybe the case for you, but too many people it's not. Avatar 2 is a four quadrant moviel, made for everyone, with higher rewatchbility than TGM, higher emotion, higher spectcle, higher novelty, higher experience. Honestly I find it bizarre that people in here seeing. "oohhh let's wait and see if it can reproduce what TGM can". Nah, it's completely expected it blow TGM out of the park.

Edited December 10, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Sheldon Cr]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

if TGM got a 5.5x multplier, Avatar 2 can get over 6.

 

If TGM made $580m post opening weekend, Avatar 2 can make $850m (credit to @Porthos)

 

I think the problem people are having here is that they preceive TGM as an almost perfect film. That maybe the case for you, but too many people it's not. Avatar 2 is a four quadrant moviel, made for everyone, with higher rewatchbility than TGM, higher emotion, higher spectcle, higher novelty, higher experience. Honestly I find it bizarre that people in here seeing. "oohhh let's wait and see if it can reproduce what TGM can". Nah, it's completely expected it blow TGM out of the park.

Exactly. The fact this movie has folks predicting 850-1.3 b domestically is very telling on how much this film will blow TGM out of the park. I mean TGM will not put many  grandparents to kids in seats but Avatar2 will. A true 4 quadrant film that has alot of fanbase to draw upon( A certain boat , may add extra tickets big time. Especially that rose is back working with James in this one and part 3 ..Welcome back Kate!)

[UKBoxOffice]

Edit: Wrong thread

Edited December 10, 2022 by UKBoxOffice

[Sheldon Cr]

26 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

if TGM got a 5.5x multplier, Avatar 2 can get over 6.

 

If TGM made $580m post opening weekend, Avatar 2 can make $850m (credit to @Porthos)

 

I think the problem people are having here is that they preceive TGM as an almost perfect film. That maybe the case for you, but too many people it's not. Avatar 2 is a four quadrant moviel, made for everyone, with higher rewatchbility than TGM, higher emotion, higher spectcle, higher novelty, higher experience. Honestly I find it bizarre that people in here seeing. "oohhh let's wait and see if it can reproduce what TGM can". Nah, it's completely expected it blow TGM out of the park.

No ifs and No doubt about it.  And I'm feeling it will blow TGM out of the park by 200-330 plus mil domestic gap and absolutely  obliterate  Maverick internationally.

I mean TGM is going to get a 2b plus spanking overall honestly. 

And  with a bit of that extra Cameron magic and perhaps some extra  superperforming in key territories happening...dare i say TGM could get smashed by even a 2.6- 3billion level gap.

But hey according to a few in here Jimbo  it should be compared to Avatar 2. Go figure-lol 👍😎

Edited December 10, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Update

[Nero]

1 hour ago, Ronin46 said:

 

Top Gun just did over 5.5, so I think over 5 is quite possible really. 

Top Gun also opened low. This will open higher so the more it makes on OW less will be the legs

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Remember XXR that None of his giant epics  have gotten such a low multiplier.

So I'm going with 6.1x (hoping it gets a 7x or better though)

  Avatar 1 had a 10x multplier btw.

Titanic a 30+x Multi. And Titanic to Avatar(12 year gap) Avatar - Avatar 2(13 year gap)

 

This movie I feel will get a much better  multi than TGM even with a giant OW.

 

Agreed the  on the rewatch value of Cameron films has no rival.

The big question can he get a 7 multiplier with 190-200+ OW.

 

Multipliers largely depend on the opening. They are useful for quick references and comps but you shouldn't base your whole prediction on them unless you are pitting them against strictly similar films. Multiplier != Legs.

 

An example I like going back to even though it's a different market is Demon Slayer in Japan, just because of how extreme of an example it is. The film had a 12x multiplier, which by Japan standards is strong, but not incredible, seeing as the other top grossing films surrounding it had 30x multipliers. Yet the film was pretty easily keeping up with all those titles during the middle and late stages of its run despite having a multiplier barely over a third of them, meaning it wasn't really any less leggy.

 

I think Ava2 will have some of the absolute best-in-class legs for what it opens to, but best-in-class being the key term here. Avatar had a 10x, but it wouldn't have had that multiplier if it opened to 100M instead. The larger the opening is the more the multiplier will go towards the low side.

Edited December 10, 2022 by JustLurking

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cr said:

What's your ow predict Brother Ronin and the multiplier you think Avatar 2 Way of the Water will get by the end of its domestic  run?

 

I had 180/800 2 weeks ago before any of the critic reviews came out. I don't think I will increase the OW but think 180/850 is where I land at the moment. I will not be surprised with a 170 OW either but still think that would still clear 800 by the end. I could see 185-190 and 900. I can't quite get to the 1B mark but I guess anything is possible, and I hope it does get there. I cant really predict OS so will leave that to others who have more of a feel for it than me.

 

The pleasure this guy has brought me with his movies in my lifetime is immense. 

[wildphantom]

I love how flippant a billion domestic is being thrown around just because the movie is apparently good. 
 

This isn’t the first film that’s got huge hype going into the week before Christmas. The hype is nowhere near the levels Force Awakens, No Way Home, Last Jedi had in recent years. It’s big, yes. And it’ll open big.  We’ve got no idea what will happen after that. 
 

will it play well through the holidays and beyond? I’m sure it will. But to casually say it will perform like Maverick and NWH is more fanboying than based on any kind of reality. 
 

We’ll see. Some are only setting themselves up for disappointment when it ‘only makes $650 million’.  A billion dollars domestic? Bigger than Force Awakens?? Come on now. 
 

Not saying it isn’t possible, especially considering the lack of competition and free runway it has. But the hyperbole from some on here is way out of control. Lmao. 
 

and no, the reviews are not even close to what Maverick had as early buzz.