Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

25 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I love how flippant a billion domestic is being thrown around [1] just because the movie is apparently good. 
 

This isn’t the first film that’s got huge hype going into the week before Christmas. [2] The hype is nowhere near the levels Force Awakens, No Way Home, Last Jedi had in recent years. It’s big, yes. And it’ll open big.  We’ve got no idea what will happen after that. 
 

will it play well through the holidays and beyond? I’m sure it will. But to casually say it will perform like Maverick and NWH [3] is more fanboying than based on any kind of reality. 
 

We’ll see. Some are only setting themselves up for disappointment when it ‘only makes $650 million’.  A billion dollars domestic? Bigger than Force Awakens?? Come on now. 
 

Not saying it isn’t possible, especially considering the lack of competition and free runway it has. But the hyperbole from some on here is way out of control. Lmao. 
 

and no, the reviews are not even close to what Maverick had as early buzz. 

 

[1] I'm very sure you will have been saying months ago "theres no way of knowing if the movie will be good, it's hyperbole to expect it to be better thant he first". But here we are. It wasn't hyperbole then if you followed the project closely, know Jim's track record, read all the interviews and articles around the sequel, and even watched the teaser. You never needed the reactions to know exactly what this film is going to be.

 

Groundbreaking visuals
Best 3D ever seen on screen. (3D isn't binary, there's an artistry to it)

Novelty factor from Underwater visuals

Incredible Action (Like all Jim Films)

Incredible 3rd Act (Like Titanic & Avatar)

Exact same core experiential feeling as the first movie (one of the main reasons it was so succesful)

Richer Story than the first movie, with more emotions, closeups and character development

 

You should have known this is exactly what the film will be years ago, if you didn't know that you haven't done your research.

Notice the list I just provided are actually reasons why the film be 4 quadrant movie which the audiences will go nuts for. So yeah it's not "because the movies apparently good". It's not just doubting Jim, it ignoring history and all the facts we have to this point.

 

[2] This film was never going to live and die by the opening weekend, and yet it's coming in much higher and with more hype than any of the doubters expected. Star Wars & Marvel are the biggest and most established franchies they're going to have the hype coming in.

 

[3] When this makes a billie, you do not have permission to say I couldn't have actually known and it was blind faith which got me to the correct answer. My prediction is based on all the information I have. TGM & NHW are going to get dusted.

Edited December 10, 2022 by IronJimbo

[SchumacherFTW]

Jimbo, calm down man. Don't get banned in the final stretch. 

[stephanos13]

And here folks we have two different type of people. One consernative with the predictions and one overconfident. 😄

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Jimbo, calm down man. Don't get banned in the final stretch. 

 

Ah... @wildphantom if that comes across aggressive it was not my intention. There's good information in there so ignore anything provocative  😅

Edited December 10, 2022 by IronJimbo

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Jimbo, calm down man. Don't get banned in the final stretch. 

Jimbo not being here for the actual run after all this time would be a hilarious mix of sad and funny, not gonna lie.

[wildphantom]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

[1] I'm very sure you will have been saying months ago "theres no way of knowing if the movie will be good, it's hyperbole to expect it to be better thant he first". But here we are. It wasn't hyperbole then if you followed the project closely, know Jim's track record, read all the interviews and articles around the sequel, and even watched the teaser. You never needed the reactions to know exactly what this film is going to be.

 

Groundbreaking visuals
Best 3D ever seen on screen. (3D isn't binary, there's an artistry to it)

Novelty factor from Underwater visuals

Incredible Action (Like all Jim Films)

Incredible 3rd Act (Like Titanic & Avatar)

Exact same core experiential feeling as the first movie (one of the main reasons it was so succesful)

Richer Story than the first movie, with more emotions, closeups and character development

 

You should have known this is exactly what the film will be years ago, if you didn't know that you haven't done your research.

Notice the list I just provided are actually reasons why the film be 4 quadrant movie which the audiences will go nuts for. So yeah it's not "because the movies apparently good". It's not just doubting Jim, it ignoring history and all the facts we have to this point.

 

[2] This film was never going to live and die by the opening weekend, and yet it's coming in much higher and with more hype than any of the doubters expected. Star Wars & Marvel are the biggest and most established franchies they're going to have the hype coming in.

 

[3] When this makes a billie, you do not have permission to say I couldn't have actually known and it was blind faith which got me to the correct answer. My prediction is based on all the information I have. TGM & NHW are going to get dusted.

if you go WAYYYYY back I was one of few who said the movie would be huge and to never bet against Cameron. But to expect the biggest grossing film of all time from some excitement from those that saw it early? 
 

People are going to have to go and see this over and over for it to get close to $750 million, never mind a billion.  You have no information that it will dust actual phenomenons. We didn’t even know they would go as high as they did two weeks into their runs. 
 

just all hyperbole in the lull before we actually get some numbers in this snooze fest of a fall season. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, wildphantom said:

if you go WAYYYYY back I was one of few who said the movie would be huge and to never bet against Cameron. But to expect the biggest grossing film of all time from some excitement from those that saw it early? 
 

People are going to have to go and see this over and over for it to get close to $750 million, never mind a billion.  You have no information that it will dust actual phenomenons. We didn’t even know they would go as high as they did two weeks into their runs. 
 

just all hyperbole in the lull before we actually get some numbers in this snooze fest of a fall season. 

So you would say it's impossible to predict?

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Ah... @wildphantom if that comes across aggressive it was not my intention. There's good information in there so ignore anything provocative  😅

all fun my good man. We know what we’re like 

 

[wildphantom]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

So you would say it's impossible to predict?

I would feel comfortable with $575 million, but anything above that I need to see how it’s playing with at least two full weeks of play, and a third weekend. 

[nydedan]

All I can say is NEVER UNDERESTIMATE JAMES CAMERON. He made history everytime and he will do it again this time.

[IronJimbo]

17 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I would feel comfortable with $575 million, but anything above that I need to see how it’s playing with at least two full weeks of play, and a third weekend. 

I see you're in the camp that films can't be predicted to connect with audiences in a massive way. I think Avatar 2 makes $575m off the success of the first movie even if it was worse than the first. I sincerely believe that audiences will love this movie more than they loved NWH & TGM. I have to empathesise that Jim has took what worked from the first movie and built apun it, just as he did with T2.

 

 

I would like to hear from anyone who doesn't believe the film will connect with audiences as much as the first, why? Or maybe you can dispute any of the below

 

Groundbreaking visuals
Best 3D ever seen on screen. (3D isn't binary, there's an artistry to it)

Novelty factor from Underwater visuals

Incredible Action (Like all Jim Films)

Incredible 3rd Act (Like Titanic & Avatar)

Exact same core experiential feeling as the first movie (one of the main reasons it was so succesful)

Richer Story than the first movie, with more emotions, closeups and character development

Edited December 10, 2022 by IronJimbo

[SchumacherFTW]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I see you're in the camp that films can't be predicted to connect with audiences in a massive way. I think Avatar 2 makes $575m off the success of the first movie even if it was worse than the first. I sincerely believe that audiences will love this movie more than they loved NWH & TGM. I have to empathesise that Jim has took what worked from the first movie and built apun it, just as he did with T2.

 

 

I would like to hear from anyone who doesn't believe the film will connect with audiences as much as the first, why? Or maybe you can dispute any of the below

 

Groundbreaking visuals
Best 3D ever seen on screen. (3D isn't binary, there's an artistry to it)

Novelty factor from Underwater visuals

Incredible Action (Like all Jim Films)

Incredible 3rd Act (Like Titanic & Avatar)

Exact same core experiential feeling as the first movie (one of the main reasons it was so succesful)

Richer Story than the first movie, with more emotions, closeups and character development

The main thing I'd dispute is the importance of 3D. There's a considerable number of people that just will not go back to a 3D screening in the modern world. It's still going to be big in 3D, but not to the same level the first was. 

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

The main thing I'd dispute is the importance of 3D. There's a considerable number of people that just will not go back to a 3D screening in the modern world. It's still going to be big in 3D, but not to the same level the first was. 

The reason the original Avatar was able to make so much from 3D was of course because it was a novetly at the time, just like water is for A2, but also Avatar's legs were a massive reason. Yeah well of course you need legs to make money, but actually there were limited 3D screens back in 2009 so if it was more frontloaded there wouldn't have been the capacity, as Jim keeps saying we've gone from 6000 to 120000 globablly, or something like that.

 

From presales it looks like 3D is going to account for above 50% of the gross in America, the region that hates 3D the most. I predict this % will only rise when people watch the movie in 3D as they've forgotten what good 3D looks like. Imagine being 10-15 years old, you've probably never seen good 3D in your life so this is going to be an experience for them.

 

Back to my point, 50%+ revenue from 3D sales is unheard for in domestic market for the longest time, which is a reason when comparing Avatar 2 to other recent films like TGM & NWH you have to expect this to have two things, 1) more reason to see it in cinema, and 2) higher average ticket price

 

I think >70% gross from 3D is in DOMESTIC is going to happen for A2

Edited December 10, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Elessar]

17 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I see you're in the camp that films can't be predicted to connect with audiences in a massive way. I think Avatar 2 makes $575m off the success of the first movie even if it was worse than the first. I sincerely believe that audiences will love this movie more than they loved NWH & TGM. I have to empathesise that Jim has took what worked from the first movie and built apun it, just as he did with T2.

 

 

I would like to hear from anyone who doesn't believe the film will connect with audiences as much as the first, why? Or maybe you can dispute any of the below

 

Groundbreaking visuals
Best 3D ever seen on screen. (3D isn't binary, there's an artistry to it)

Novelty factor from Underwater visuals

Incredible Action (Like all Jim Films)

Incredible 3rd Act (Like Titanic & Avatar)

Exact same core experiential feeling as the first movie (one of the main reasons it was so succesful)

Richer Story than the first movie, with more emotions, closeups and character development

 

You can have all the right ingredients but the meal might still not taste good.

 

Sure, Cameron is one of the best cooks there ever was and i'm equally sure the food will be a treat, but let's look at some of his other stuff he has done. While Terminator or Aliens are amazing and were pretty big for their time, they weren't Titanic or even Avatar big.

 

I guess what i wanted to say, you never know with these things.

Edited December 10, 2022 by Elessar

[The Dark Alfred]

I think it will peform according to expectations. It won't go below or above it. There are certainly more cons than pros, but it's not a slam dunk. The 3D factor won't be as huge as it was back in 2009. Doubt it will have that long run either. The story will be important factor and how much of a repeat business it will generate. That will determine its success. NWH and TGM became monsters due to people coming back and coming back again. I expect A2 fall short from the first one, but that wouldn't make it a disappointment. My final prediction is 675-715m. Will beat TITANIC and possibly BP.  Worldwide will hit 2 billion, but whether it passes TITANIC depends on China, hard to see how restricted the market is at at the moment.

Edited December 10, 2022 by The Dark Alfred

[Sophia Jane]

15 minutes ago, The Dark Alfred said:

I think it will peform according to expectations. It won't go below or above it. There are certainly more cons than pros, but it's not a slam dunk. The 3D factor won't be as huge as it was back in 2009. Doubt it will have that long run either. The story will be important factor and how much of a repeat business it will generate. That will determine its success. NWH and TGM became monsters due to people coming back and coming back again. I expect A2 fall short from the first one, but that wouldn't make it a disappointment. My final prediction is 675-715m. Will beat TITANIC and possibly BP.  Worldwide will hit 2 billion, but whether it passes TITANIC depends on China, hard to see how restricted the market is at at the moment.

China cinema already recover 68% with loose policy,will be 75% when Avatar opening and 80%+  on its second weekend,and the presale already crush 100m benchmark,$150-180m opening seems locked

Edited December 10, 2022 by Bruce

[Andreas]

2 minutes ago, Bruce said:

China cinema already recover 68% with loose policy,will be 75% when Avatar opening and 80%+  on its second weekend,and the presale already crush 100m benchmark,$150-180m opening seems locked

This will end up having a bigger OW in China than in US, won't it?

[IronJimbo]

Just now, Andreas said:

This will end up having a bigger OW in China than in US, won't it?

Yeah it's looking that way

[Sophia Jane]

2 minutes ago, Andreas said:

This will end up having a bigger OW in China than in US, won't it?

200m in China doable depends on presale,I think will on par with DOM

 

for overall gross,I think China will doing 750m now,for DOM I still take my side to 850m

Edited December 10, 2022 by Bruce

[dignam]

What people dont get, avatar was not just a movie, it was an attraction, a roller coaster of a movie that you had to see and experience for yourself. If avatar 2 can pull the same trigger i see the same numbers, maybe even higher.