Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[nguyenkhoi282]

I love how we're casually throwing 2 3 4 billies around like it's no big deal. Even Endgame with such massive presales didn't get this kind of predictions. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I love how we're casually throwing 2 3 4 billies around like it's no big deal. Even Endgame with such massive presales didn't get this kind of predictions. 

 

Endgame definitely got $2-3B predictions lol

 

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, danziger said:

In addition to TLJ having a big drop from TFA, Empire also had a massive drop from Star Wars despite having massive critical acclaim. I know that was a time when sequels were generally less successful, but I think the first Star Wars hit levels with the novelty factor that virtually no sequel could have matched. Same with Jurassic Park, and I always feared Avatar would be similar but we'll see. There's no one like James Cameron, obviously.

It actually didnt on its very first release. problem when researching the orig SW trilogy is all the various re-releases are included.

 

I dont remember the exact numbers but the orig SW trilogy on its very first inital release was something like -

A New Hope - 220mil

Empire - 200mil

Jedi - 210mil.

 

Its something l.ike that. I know 100% that all 3 grosses from their initial runs were very close to each other.

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I love how we're casually throwing 2 3 4 billies around like it's no big deal. Even Endgame with such massive presales didn't get this kind of predictions. 

At the most basic level, looking at the first movie's $2.78b and James Cameron's track record you would expect Avatar 2 to land within 30% of the first movie, which is where everyones prediction are

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[M37]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

The overall general conseus on this site is better than anywhere on the internet honestly. People are forced to learn how box office works on here, while on /r/boxoffice for example someone can just go into a thread, spew their senseless thoughts then go back to /r/movies or something.

Hard agree. For any film release you’ll have the doubters (👋) and the overly optimistic, but BOT is mostly a data driven analysis (particularly in the tracking thread) where people generally know their sh*t, so the noise/nonsense doesn’t gain traction 
 

With that said, every once in a while you get a title that surprises even the “experts” (see TGM, Lightyear, etc) because it’s an imprecise science, trying to predict future collective behavior 

[stuart360]

4 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I love how we're casually throwing 2 3 4 billies around like it's no big deal. Even Endgame with such massive presales didn't get this kind of predictions. 

Its not really that ridiculous if you work it out.

Worldwide OW predicitons are around 700mil. Even a pitiful 3x multiplayr would mean over 2bil, and no way this gets such a low MP, not when it has Christams boosting the legs.

 

I mean has there been any Christmas released blockbuster film that got less than 3x legs?

[Sheldon Cr]

6 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Endgame definitely got $2-3B predictions lol

 

Yes indeed . lol

[Borobudur]

6 minutes ago, nguyenkhoi282 said:

I love how we're casually throwing 2 3 4 billies around like it's no big deal. Even Endgame with such massive presales didn't get this kind of predictions. 

Yes, I think we need to keep our expectation in check. Now I am more leaning towards $2.5bn. $3bn is in play if A2 is really that lucky in China and public really go crazy on 3D.

[Alexdube]

13 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

It can be both.  Which is why both of those movies made A LOT of money.  

 

TFA and NWH had 2 major things going for them, but novelty isn't one of them.

 

Popular franchise + nostalgia bait = profit

You can add JWD to the list also

 

Brining back old characters isn't what I call novelty, in fact it's kind of the opposite

 

 

[hw64]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

I mean has there been any Christmas released blockbuster film that got less than 3x legs?

 

The Last Jedi: $450m opening (without China) to $1,290m final (without China), so 2.87x legs. And that's with a way smaller global opening than Avatar 2 will have.

 

I'm playing devil's advocate a bit here, of course, as I'm on the $3b train and I think Avatar 2 will have around a 4x multiplier off of its global opening weekend, but it is theoretically possible to have an under 3x global multiplier at Christmas, yes.

[Sheldon Cr]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Its not really that ridiculous if you work it out.

Worldwide OW predicitons are around 700mil. Even a pitiful 3x multiplayr would mean over 2bil, and no way this gets such a low MP, not when it has Christams boosting the legs.

 

I mean has there been any Christmas released blockbuster film that got less than 3x legs?

If there were, it certainly not by James Cameron. 

Really loving those 600m-700 m WW Ow start predicts 

Nice. 3bww and beyond is looking good right now Stuart ..Imagine Avatar 2 hits 2b WW plus by early Jan with no end in sight😱

[danziger]

12 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

It actually didnt on its very first release. problem when researching the orig SW trilogy is all the various re-releases are included.

 

I dont remember the exact numbers but the orig SW trilogy on its very first inital release was something like -

A New Hope - 220mil

Empire - 200mil

Jedi - 210mil.

 

Its something l.ike that. I know 100% that all 3 grosses from their initial runs were very close to each other.

 

BOM says it was $307m vs. $209m for Empire. I think you're right tho that technically Star Wars finished around $225m in original release because there was a brief gap with SW being out of theaters that BOM doesn't recognize. But I think this shows the first SW had way more rewatch value because of the novelty factor. Cameron has a huge hill to climb giving TWOW similar rewatch value to the first Avatar, but if anyone can do it, it's James Cameron.

Edited December 11, 2022 by danziger

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

The Last Jedi: $450m opening (without China) to $1,290m final (without China), so 2.87x legs. And that's with a way smaller global opening than Avatar 2 will have.

 

I'm playing devil's advocate a bit here, of course, as I'm on the $3b train and I think Avatar 2 will have around a 4x multiplier off of its global opening weekend, but it is theoretically possible to have an under 3x global multiplier at Christmas, yes.

But it doesnt happen often, which was the point i was making. And if the reviews and reactions are true, its an amazing cinema experience, something TLJ didnt have.

[Sheldon Cr]

3 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

BOM says it was $307m vs. $209m for Empire. I think you're right tho that technically Star Wars finished around $225m in original release because there was a brief gap with SW being out of theaters that BOM doesn't recognize. But I think this shows the first SW had way more rewatch value because of the novelty factor. Cameron has a huge hill to climb giving TWOW similar rewatch value to the first Avatar, but if anyone can do it, it's James Cameron.

His titanic is the most successful ticket seller domestically and worldwide. So he is definitely the Alpha and the one folks should never bet against indeed..

 

Can he pull the hat trick and do it a third freaking time in a row... Yes .I truly believe he can.

[danziger]

This is what the wiki says about Star Wars' box office: "On July 21, 1978 while still in current release in 38 theaters in the U.S., the film expanded into a 1,744 theater national saturation windup of release and set a new U.S. weekend record of $10,202,726.[227][228][229] The gross prior to the expansion was $221,280,994. The expansion added a further $43,774,911 to take its gross to $265,055,905. Reissues in 1979 ($22,455,262), 1981 ($17,247,363), and 1982 ($17,981,612) brought its cumulative gross in the U.S and Canada to $323 million,[230][231] and extended its global earnings to $530 million.[232]"

 

So if that's accurate, BOM should correct the original release to $265m. One of many errors they still haven't corrected. I wonder if they ever corrected for Jaws' re-releases. (Just checked and yeah they still say Jaws' first release had $260m, which BOM forums proved wrong 13 years ago.)

Edited December 11, 2022 by danziger

[hw64]

12 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

But it doesnt happen often, which was the point i was making. And if the reviews and reactions are true, its an amazing cinema experience, something TLJ didnt have.

 

Sure it's not likely, I was just answering your question on whether it'd even happened before, which it indeed has.

[Borobudur]

Love how they are going full 3D push! 

 

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

26 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Love how they are going full 3D push! 

 

 

 

Looks like several giant laser canons destroying everything (5 second mark). 

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Looks like several giant laser canons destroying everything (5 second mark). 

Avatar lore-master here, those are a variant of the ISV Venture Star you see in the first movie and are performing a sling load drop.

Edited December 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Avatar lore-master here, those are a variant of the ISV Venture Star you see in the first movie and are performing a sling load drop.

 

I see. It's an...

 

INVASION!