Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Let people meltdown over pre-sales. I'm sticking with my 180mil prediciton.

I have always said this is going to be a legs film and not a opening wekend film, and i still believe that.

It just means its going to take a little longer for Cameron to prove the doubters wrong, yet again.

Though people who track pre-sales will understand it better than me, they're still the people who are saying Avatar 2 will make approx $700m domestic, which is far below what I have it making. So I'm taking what they're saying with a massive grain of salt.

I trust my analysis of the opening weekend before the presales came in, so I won't be adjusting it too much.

[stuart360]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Though people who track pre-sales will understand it better than me, they're still the people who are saying Avatar 2 will make approx $700m domestic, which is far below what I have it making. So I'm taking what they're saying with a massive grain of salt.

I trust my analysis of the opening weekend before the presales came in, so I won't be adjusting it too much.

I mean 700mil in this current climate would be great, make no mistake about that, but yeah i'm sticking to my 750-800mil prediciton, and i still feel it has a very good chance at going over 800mil.

 

2bil worldwide is still locked, and no one will change my mind on that one.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I mean 700mil in this current climate would be great, make no mistake about that, but yeah i'm sticking to my 750-800mil prediciton, and i still feel it has a very good chance at going over 800mil.

 

2bil worldwide is still locked, and no one will change my mind on that one.

 

Before you talk about what would be considered great in the current climate.

Ask yourself how much easier is it to make money in 2022 December as a sequel, than Dec 2009 as an original movie.

 

30, 40, 50% easier? Which is why in my view anything less than Avatar is not great for Avatar 2.

[ZeeSoh]

12 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

What formats are you watching it in? Different 3D technologies and projectors have different brightnesses, if you need a bright image then go to Dolby 3D as it's comparable to 2D. IMAX Laser is also good

If a movie is playing in IMAX or Atmos then I make sure to watch it in that format. So thats most of the movies that I watch in theatres. Seldom do I go for regular screens. 
 

Imax which I frequently go to has switched to laser IMAX recently but I have only seen 1 movie since the switch so cant tell if it had made a significant difference yet. There are 6 IMAX in my city but all are liemax unfortunately (smaller screen and digital)

[Gkalaitza]

5 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I mean 700mil in this current climate would be great, make no mistake about that, but yeah i'm sticking to my 750-800mil prediciton, and i still feel it has a very good chance at going over 800mil.

 

2bil worldwide is still locked, and no one will change my mind on that one.

2bil does seem like an absolute lock yeah. I feel even the most "doomer" estimates from more sceptical users have it doing $500m Dom / $400m China / $1.1b OS - C . Only think that can change that is some unpredicatable China catastrophy due to sudden closures or being cut off 2 weeks in

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I've always said this movie will be about legs and I won't be adjusted my total Domestic, XXR will you be doing a legs thread after opening weekend?

Nah nothing like that. We can leave that to he weekend thread.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

If a movie is playing in IMAX or Atmos then I make sure to watch it in that format. So thats most of the movies that I watch in theatres. Seldom do I go for regular screens. 
 

Imax which I frequently go to has switched to laser IMAX recently but I have only seen 1 movie since the switch so cant tell if it had made a significant difference yet. There are 6 IMAX in my city but all are liemax unfortunately (smaller screen and digital)

IMAX laser 3D is the 2nd brightest format behind Dolby 3D. I think you will be pleasantly surpised.

 

I will also note that all IMAX Lasers are not the same, as it depends on the projectionists settings too. For Avatar 2 I'm sure they're being kicked up the ass to make the screen bright.

Edited December 12, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

42 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Now you're very likely to have to adjust back up again by the end of the week, when you could have instead stuck and made a potentially smaller correction if necessary over the next few days.

If I do, I do. The good thing about these predictions is they don’t really matter in the end 😂

[Mr Roark]

This is not a frontloaded comic book movie nor a SW film so an OW in the $160M range would still be good.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

31 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Thats reasonable if the OD is at $18m-$19m which its very likely that it will be. Do you think that if the reviews are as good as they can be and walk ins be better than expected (not that unlikely) that there is a solid chance the IM ends up closer to x9 or is that too much?

Anything is possible but my estimation is 8x IM. 

[Gkalaitza]

Brightness wise i think its more so about the IMAX screen being a dual projector one. Then even the liemax digital xenon screen would be great in 3D. They should be able to go HFR too

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Mr Roark said:

This is not a frontloaded comic book movie nor a SW film so an OW in the $160M range would still be good.

https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/weekend/opening

 

Yeah true, not many sequels to original movies are even up there. Everything is already established massive franchises.

 

[stuart360]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Before you talk about what would be considered great in the current climate.

Ask yourself how much easier is it to make money in 2022 December as a sequel, than Dec 2009 as an original movie.

 

30, 40, 50% easier? Which is why in my view anything less than Avatar is not great for Avatar 2.

I mean 700mil for ANY movie would be great, and make no mistake Disney and Cameron would be more than happy with 700mil US.

Its going over that though so i wouldnt worry too much. And i still feel international gross will exceed the first film anyway. I mean China alone could be 400-600mil more than the 200mil the orig film made there.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

$150M or $175M isn’t going to matter in the long run, just like $126M didn’t for TGM.

 

If the audience response is there, that’s all that matters. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, stuart360 said:

I mean 700mil for ANY movie would be great, and make no mistake Disney and Cameron would be more than happy with 700mil US.

Its going over that though so i wouldnt worry too much. And i still feel international gross will exceed the first film anyway. I mean China alone could be 400-600mil more than the 200mil the orig film made there.

This isn't any movie, it's the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time and is an epic blockbuster that sits in the same realm as Titanic & Avatar and is directed by the legendary James Cameron. I don't believe that Cameron would be happy with $700m, espcially when he see's what TGM and NWH made.

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

$150M or $175M isn’t going to matter in the long run, just like $126M didn’t for TGM.

 

If the audience response is there, that’s all that matters. 

 

Agree! Lower OW means more legs. And maybe approx $50m less total gross, but when we're going over a billie anyway who cares

[stuart360]

5 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

This isn't any movie, it's the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time and is an epic blockbuster that sits in the same realm as Titanic & Avatar and is directed by the legendary James Cameron. I don't believe that Cameron would be happy with $700m, espcially when he see's what TGM and NWH made.

He will be happy when international pulls in 2bil to go with that 700mil.

 

Honestly if you could offer Dinsey and Cameron a gross that matches the orig films US and WW total, they would probably bite your hand off.

 

We have to remember there is a lot going against A2 compared to the first film.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

He will be happy when international pulls in 2bil to go with that 700mil.

 

Honestly if you could offer Dinsey and Cameron a gross that matches the orig films US and WW total, they would probably bite your hand off.

 

We have to remember there is a lot going against A2 compared to the first film.

I'm talking about the $700m domestic, not the worldwide. There's no way he would look at a gross $100m less than No Way Home and be happy about that. He can be happy with other markets and still think $700m DOM is not great.

[stuart360]

7 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm talking about the $700m domestic, not the worldwide. There's no way he would look at a gross $100m less than No Way Home and be happy about that. He can be happy with other markets and still think $700m DOM is not great.

Well its doing over 700mil anyway Ironjimbo, well over.

 

We need to keep the faith, there was always going to be ups and downs in this run.

Edited December 12, 2022 by stuart360

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

Well its doing over 700mil anyway Ironjimbo, well over.

 

We ned to keep the faith, there was alays going to be ups and downs in this run.

My faith is unwavering! Up & Downs will only be on a micro level.