Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

My $190m opening weekend was before any pre-sales came in and was based off historic data, but now all the pre-sales data is here I honestly feel a bit in the dark as I've never really been bothered about this part until this point.

 

What historic data exactly?  I'm sure you wouldn't mind sharing with the class?

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 hours ago, hw64 said:

 

That's a kneejerk if I ever saw one. A day or two of presales data from a few select markets, some of which I'm not sure is being interpreted correctly, isn't anywhere near sufficient to tell us where this is headed — rationally, you'd need at least a few more days of data before making any adjustments, and even then any adjustments would need to be well-measured. One or two days is not a trend.

 

Now you're very likely to have to adjust back up again by the end of the week, when you could have instead stuck and made a potentially smaller correction if necessary over the next few days.

If the initial prediction was based on this movie being especially backloaded and walkup-heavy, it would be rational to adjust based on the last couple of days as it hasn't really shown the signs one would expect from a backloaded film. 

[Dragoncaine]

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

 

 

phew

could have definitely seen it getting cucked out a nom because of how late it screened 

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Juby]

2 hours ago, Sheldon Cr said:

Highest OW Predicts on Avatar 2: So Far 

 

Avatar Youtube  Guy : 330M(Woah)

Kal-EL of BOM: 190M( Highend 215)

Iron Jimbo:  190M(Highend 207-210)

XXKR(175-180M)

Stuart360: 185M

 

 

Post your OW predicts.. Lets GO!!

 

My prediction from November 18th - opening weekend: $215.8m / domestic: $870m

But now I see it even higher (better legs).

 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Getting the GG nom and being on all of these top 10 lists bodes well. Critics RT seems likely to be 90+ at this point (at least through OD which is all that really matters until WOM comes into play.)

[IronJimbo]

24 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

What historic data exactly?  I'm sure you wouldn't mind sharing with the class?

It's not just historical data of course, but that parts as you would expect.

I looked at the top 100 domestic films, looked at if they are sequels, original movies, a major franchise movie, sequels to original movies, remakes, etc. Found what I consider to be the best comaprisons, looked at those tried to work out how similar to Avatar 2 they are.

 

Matching the precieved hype and franchise power of the films I picked out back to Avatar is the part where we're going to differ. Because you have to work out the actual demand for Avatar 2 coming in.

 

To do this, we had the response from the teaser trailer, the amount of box office the Avatar re-releases. The Quoram polls, basically everything you can look at online to indicate Avatar 2's success. Also the Avatar is the most succesful blu-ray of all time, people loved the movie.

 

I factored in the fact I knew that the film will have extremely strong reactions (already proven to be true) and stellar reviews, and of course the film's actual audience reaction will be much stronger than the critics.

 

I think "no one cares about Avatar"it's a total meme generated by the internet film crowd are the exact type of people Avatar resonates with the least. The interest is clear you just got to look for it. The reason the Avatar franchise has been quiet is because it's been that way by design. A single original movie that appears once in 2009 then disappears for 13 years, of course it's not going to have a fandom that matches comic stuff. However what it does have, is that it made $750m domestically on it's first run, and audiences are not stupid. They can totally remember watching and enjoying Avatar back in 2009 and internet dwellers can't retcon that.

 

Then you got to factor in December openings. You got to factor in post-covid movies.

 

it's basically just an amalgamation of looking at box office for years and also knowing exactly what Avatar 2 is and will be. Basically the same as you I would expect, but the difference is clearly in 1) How strongly Avatar 2 will be recieved by audiences, and 2) The interest people have in going to see an Avatar film

also to add to it all, the Average Ticket Price is clearly the highest it's ever been for an American film, so you have to factor that in too. The 3D share will be the highest it's been and people will flock to PFL screens, plus inflation is massive.

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by IronJimbo

[stuart360]

12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

phew

could have definitely seen it getting cucked out a nom because of how late it screened 

 

I personally think TGM will take the major awards, except maybe director. (not just GG, i mean overall), mainly because of how universally loved it is, while A2 will always have people against it, no matter how good it is.

 

Still the fact that A2 is being nominated for all these awrds is a very good sign.

Edited December 12, 2022 by stuart360

[Dragoncaine]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Getting the GG nom and being on all of these top 10 lists bodes well. Critics RT seems likely to be 90+ at this point (at least through OD which is all that really matters until WOM comes into play.)

It's undoubtedly a great sign, but I wouldn't go as far as 90% RT, necessarily. The Globes, prestigious as they are, are prone to interesting takes that don't always gel with critics. Elvis being in Director and Picture, for example, despite having like a 60 on MC and 77% on Rotten Tomatoes. I'm still expecting mid-80s, but we'll see!

 

Agreed that the NYFCC, New York Film Critics Online, AFI, and NBR really do bode well, though.

[hw64]

44 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

If the initial prediction was based on this movie being especially backloaded and walkup-heavy, it would be rational to adjust based on the last couple of days as it hasn't really shown the signs one would expect from a backloaded film. 

 

I think the backloading that everyone's expecting is backloading across the opening weekend itself (i.e. an incredible previews multiplier), not backloading in the pace of the presales (and Thursday night preview presales at that).

 

The pace of the Thursday preview presales has very little to do with backloading across the opening weekend, and similarly little to do with walkups.

 

And I'd also point out that the post I was referring to had a near-20% adjustment in opening weekend predictions based on a few days of presales data, which I think is absolutely insane generally.

Edited December 12, 2022 by hw64

[Derpity]

Seems like the GG might've nominated it sight unseen, because I would've expected The Weeknd to sneak into Original Song. OG Avatar got 4 GG nominations, but this one missed on Song & Score.

 

Everything to do with the GG is a corrupt farce and a joke, though, so best not to read into it too much.

[IronJimbo]

Just now, hw64 said:

 

I think the backloading that everyone's expecting is backloading across the opening weekend itself (i.e. an incredible previews multiplier), not backloading in the pace of the presales (and Thursday night preview presales at that).

 

The paces of the Thursday preview presales has very little to do with backloading across the opening weekend, and similarly little to do with walkups.

 

Exactly this, as I believe it's the word of mouth and reactions to the movie itself which will drive a big backloading.

[JustLurking]

The fact that my theater straight up decided they'd rather just have A2 on every screen and play nothing else this wednesday kinda says it all about this holiday season (note that puss released last week here).

[interiorgatordecorator]

19 minutes ago, Derpity said:

Seems like the GG might've nominated it sight unseen, because I would've expected The Weeknd to sneak into Original Song. OG Avatar got 4 GG nominations, but this one missed on Song & Score.

 

Everything to do with the GG is a corrupt farce and a joke, though, so best not to read into it too much.

 

yeah, think thats possible, but I heard the Weekend's song isnt that great

[Valonqar]

Holy shit. Sizzling pre-sales, amazing reactions, already getting big awards nominations and appearing on Top 10 lists! 1B dom is gonna happen isn't it? what a historical time we live in!

[Grebacio]

Kinda off topic, but anyone knows when Critics Choice announce their movie nominees?

 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Kinda off topic, but anyone knows when Critics Choice announce their movie nominees?

 

 Supposedly a month before the ceremony which is Jan 15. So this week.

[IronJimbo]

14 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Holy shit. Sizzling pre-sales, amazing reactions, already getting big awards nominations and appearing on Top 10 lists! 1B dom is gonna happen isn't it? what a historical time we live in!

It was always happening 😎

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Holy shit. Sizzling pre-sales, amazing reactions, already getting big awards nominations and appearing on Top 10 lists! 1B dom is gonna happen isn't it? what a historical time we live in!

Sizzling presales?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

9 minutes ago, Grebacio said:

Kinda off topic, but anyone knows when Critics Choice announce their movie nominees?

 

December 14