Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[The GOAT]

IronJimbo and the rest of the gang when Avatar legs out above the OG Avatar

 

[danziger]

8 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

reception isnt there for 3 billion, would be surprised by 2.5 billion at this point, think it'll crawl over 2 billion, satisfying no one in the process, neither the haters or the fans will know how to feel about that

 

James Cameron failed us

 

$2 billion means we're getting Avatar 4 & 5. That will get most Avatar fans celebrating. The rest of this stuff is just noise.

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, danziger said:

$2 billion means we're getting Avatar 4 & 5. That will get most Avatar fans celebrating. The rest of this stuff is just noise.

 

avatar 2 probably has a break even point of 1.5 billion with all the participations, considering 2 only has "good" reception, its entirely possible that each entry drops a bit and it might flirt with that breakeven point, the practical consequence of that being that Cameron might not get all of the movie he asks for 4-5

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

 

where did you rank the original Avatar amongs Jim's filmography?

 

As i have posted elsewhere, i group them in two tiers:

 

- the "amazing" tier: T1, T2, Aliens, Titanic

- the "pretty great" tier: Avatar, Abyss, True Lies

 

 

[Cap]

Who’s ready for freezing rain/snow on Thursday and Friday night in the Northeast!

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, Elessar said:

 

As i have posted elsewhere, i group them in two tiers:

 

- the "amazing" tier: T1, T2, Aliens, Titanic

- the "pretty great" tier: Avatar, Abyss, True Lies

 

 

 

whats the third tier you would create for avatar 2?

[hw64]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

avatar 2 probably has a break even point of 1.5 billion with all the participations, considering 2 only has "good" reception, its entirely possible that each entry drops a bit and it might flirt with that breakeven point, the practical consequence of that being that Cameron might not get all of the movie he asks for 4-5

 

The costs for the sequels are heavily frontloaded on Avatar 2. 3 and beyond won't cost nearly as much.

[Elessar]

1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

whats the third tier you would create for avatar 2?

 

I might create one, or i might not, have to see it a couple more times first  

[wildphantom]

Meltdowns are starting. Lol. 
 

Two months ago NOBODY was expecting this to be the biggest film of all time. Nobody. 

 

In the summer when TGM was destroying everything nobody was saying that Avatar would categorically top it. 
 

So if (and I think it will) Avatar tops TGM worldwide, well what’s the problem? If it ends up in the top four or five biggest films of all time, what is the problem!?! It’ll be incredible and WAY beyond what anybody was expecting earlier this year. Some of you have just hyped yourselves beyond reality - AGAIN. 

[Dragoncaine]

4 minutes ago, Cap said:

Who’s ready for freezing rain/snow on Thursday and Friday night in the Northeast!

Yeah, I'm getting nervous as a NY resident who has tickets for a group of 10 reserved for Friday night lol

 

We'll make it work no matter what, but not everyone is as dedicated to seeing this opening weekend as we are...

[M37]

42 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

lmao this roller coaster hasn't even pulled out of the station and I'm getting whiplash

Going to be an interesting couple of weeks I think 

 

[Nikostar]

Just now, wildphantom said:

Meltdowns are starting. Lol. 
 

Two months ago NOBODY was expecting this to be the biggest film of all time. Nobody. 

 

In the summer when TGM was destroying everything nobody was saying that Avatar would categorically top it. 
 

So if (and I think it will) Avatar tops TGM worldwide, well what’s the problem? If it ends up in the top four or five biggest films of all time, what is the problem!?! It’ll be incredible and WAY beyond what anybody was expecting earlier this year. Some of you have just hyped yourselves beyond reality - AGAIN. 

It's the fans fault. We have been saying  get your predictions under control for weeks. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just now, Nikostar said:

It's the fans fault. We have been saying  get your predictions under control for weeks. 

 

nah

the problem here is the movie itself

all of our super high predictions expected better wom than this

[wildphantom]

Just now, Nikostar said:

It's the fans fault. We have been saying  get your predictions under control for weeks. 

yep. And they were mostly nowhere to be seen during the summer season and earlier. They got excited at tracking being $140 million plus a couple of weeks ago, and then turned it into - ‘it’s going to make $3 billion!!!’  No. That was never any kind of certainty. If it made that much it would stun the entire industry around the world. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Meltdowns are starting. Lol. 
 

Two months ago NOBODY was expecting this to be the biggest film of all time. Nobody. 

 

In the summer when TGM was destroying everything nobody was saying that Avatar would categorically top it. 
 

So if (and I think it will) Avatar tops TGM worldwide, well what’s the problem? If it ends up in the top four or five biggest films of all time, what is the problem!?! It’ll be incredible and WAY beyond what anybody was expecting earlier this year. Some of you have just hyped yourselves beyond reality - AGAIN. 

Ehhh, I think most people have been expecting it to top TGM worldwide.

[JustLurking]

Just now, Menor Reborn said:

Ehhh, I think most people have been expecting it to top TGM worldwide.

I mean - pretty sure most people are STILL expecting it to top TGM worldwide, and it'll do that.

[danziger]

6 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

avatar 2 probably has a break even point of 1.5 billion with all the participations, considering 2 only has "good" reception, its entirely possible that each entry drops a bit and it might flirt with that breakeven point, the practical consequence of that being that Cameron might not get all of the movie he asks for 4-5

 

Reportedly the production budget is $350-400m. If that's accurate + maybe $200m for marketing, no way is $1.5 billion the break even point. Only if you're trusting Hollywood accountant math. And as hw64 said, the other sequels will likely have lower budgets.

[wildphantom]

Just now, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

nah

the problem here is the movie itself

all of our super high predictions expected better wom than this

It’s at 83 on RT. 

Most of the naysayers (there are merely a few) didn’t like the first one anyway. So….I mean what’s the fault of the movie exactly?

 

Different times to 2009. A whole generation later. It’ll be a hell of a feat to come within a billion of the first one in my opinion.  

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, wildphantom said:

yep. And they were mostly nowhere to be seen during the summer season and earlier. They got excited at tracking being $140 million plus a couple of weeks ago, and then turned it into - ‘it’s going to make $3 billion!!!’  No. That was never any kind of certainty. If it made that much it would stun the entire industry around the world. 

 

Why don't you ask the people who predicted that it's going to be 3 billies, if they still believe it will. For me the answer is a resounding yes. Everything I've seen so far is expected.

 

The issue is that there was hype around the opening weekend due to projections from BOP and Deadline, now people are thinking it will come in lower than this. So they're conflating that to the total gross of the movie.

WHICH, if you ask anyone predicting a massive success, will tell you this movies all about legs...

[wildphantom]

2 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Ehhh, I think most people have been expecting it to top TGM worldwide.

Sure, but TGM was a phenomenon. Maybe the greatest blockbuster in a decade or more.  If TWOW is in that ballpark or beyond in terms of performance, it’s done great.