Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[JustLurking]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

@Porthos, let's do the maths!

 

 

Kal El was right all along. 2+ billy DOM incoming

[kayumanggi]

Just now, Issac Newton said:

It is currently running in Chinese theatre. You can take a look on China Box Office thread?

 

I know it is being shown. What I was saying is that for the longest time, I didn't include China in my predictions because I didn't expect it will release there.

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

@Porthos, let's do the maths!

 

 

Going to be crazy if these 1.2-1.4b domestic scenarios happen.

 

Needs a multiplier just a little bit less than the original Juggernaut 2009 

Maybe a 8.5x.  I would love this to slap FA domestically by.alot. 😄

[danziger]

Another rave review from a channel with 2 million subs:

 

It's a sports channel, so hopefully indicative at least of what WOM will be for that male demo. Judging by the first 5 minutes GameXplain (1.3 million subs) also gave a very positive review, with some criticisms. 

[kayumanggi]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

From Deadline:

 

Through this AM, box office analytics corp EntTelligence reports that the preview night and opening day of Avatar 2 represent only 53% sales are for opening weekend, “which is a very good thing,” reports the org.

 

“It means that this movie is not front loaded with steep box office drops.  By way of comparison, a superhero movie often has 70+% of PreSales in for Preview Night/Opening Day.  Lower than 70% is a strong indicator of success. 53% eclipses that benchmark,” reports EntTelligence.

 

Another indicator that Avatar 2 is not frontloaded: 23% of all presales are for after opening weekend.  The film’s subsequent days of release, after opening weekend, are doing better than Spider-Man: No Way Home.

 

This was from Deadline, @Porthos. We'll see in the coming days how these will translate.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Dude, I need numbers not GIFs ༎ຶ⁠‿⁠༎ຶ

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Kal El was right all along. 2+ billy DOM incoming

Maybe not 2b, but my 1.1 b predict is still in play. Lol

[Ryan Reynolds]

https://twitter.com/THR/status/1603612590046937088

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

19% of Americans plan to see John Wick 4 in theaters while 21% plan to see Avatar 2. Therefore, we can pencil in JW4 for 19/21 of Avatar 2 domestic gross!

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cr said:

What's your ow and multiplier for Juggernaut 2022 my brother domestically?

 

****BEFORE**** pre-sale data came in, I was around 160/725-750.

 

****WITH**** 17m-ish previews, probably 130-145 OW.

 

But I utterly suck at figuring out internal multipliers (I really am one of the worst people to ask on this board) and I'm not about to try to figure out a DOM total.

 

"A man's got to know his limitations" as Clint once said, and I know mine.  And trying to parse out an DOM total before we get any sort of real data is mine.

[kayumanggi]

Just now, danziger said:

Another rave review from a channel with 2 million subs:

 

It's a sports channel, so hopefully indicative at least of what WOM will be for that male demo. Judging by the first 5 minutes GameXplain (1.3 million subs) also gave a very positive review, with some criticisms. 

 

The first one didn't have these channels to rely on. I wonder, do you think these vloggers really have that much of an influence?

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Dude, I need numbers not GIFs ༎ຶ⁠‿⁠༎ຶ

 

Okay, my answer is "that survey was doo-doo." to paraphrase Dr. Fronkenstien. 

 

That's all the numbers you're getting out of me.   

[danziger]

41 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

For some reason, I think people who have never seen the original or don't really the remember the original will like this sequel very much. 

 

We've seen enough examples of that in reviews so far that I think it's a significant trend. But of course those are critics seeing it because it's their job. Very difficult to get non-Avatar fans in the general audience to pay up & devote 4 hours to it, especially in this climate.

[danziger]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

The first one didn't have these channels to rely on. I wonder, do you think these vloggers really have that much of an influence?

 

I have no idea really, never paid attention to them before.

[kayumanggi]

8 minutes ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

https://twitter.com/THR/status/1603612590046937088

 

 

China’s largest ticketing app, Maoyan, meanwhile, is projecting The Way of Water to conclude its local run with $360 million (RMB 2.51 billion), which would make it Hollywood’s biggest movie in the country this year by far (more than double Jurassic World: Dominion‘s $157 million China haul) and the third-biggest U.S. title of all time in China. 

 

Artisan Gateway is forecasting a wide range for Avatar 2’s career total — $315 million to $415 million (RMB 2.2 billion-RMB 2.9 billion) — reflecting the unpredictability of the moment.

 

***

 

Okay. So that's a range of 315 M - 415 M.

[kayumanggi]

3 minutes ago, danziger said:

 

I have no idea really, never paid attention to them before.

 

But maybe they have. I think people pay attention to them more than the critics. 😅 (Although critics can be vloggers too.)

[Sheldon Cr]

12 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

The first one didn't have these channels to rely on. I wonder, do you think these vloggers really have that much of an influence?

They do. Seen some.under Magnus get motivated and saying their buying 3 tickets or so. Some of the influences are so big the studios pay some of them off to praise their films. I know magnus is huge influencer.

IGN and shoot Emergency awesome has like 10-15 m subs. He has nearly 5million subs on YouTube alone. Dude was review was like avatar 2 won't be topped and is.the best movie  experience audiences will have possibly ever.  Wow

Ticket sales going up domestically and Os from some of these content influencers bigtime

Definitely some nice gravy on momentum Kayom that Avatar 1 didn't have.👍

Edited December 16, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[Sheldon Cr]

5 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

China’s largest ticketing app, Maoyan, meanwhile, is projecting The Way of Water to conclude its local run with $360 million (RMB 2.51 billion), which would make it Hollywood’s biggest movie in the country this year by far (more than double Jurassic World: Dominion‘s $157 million China haul) and the third-biggest U.S. title of all time in China. 

 

Artisan Gateway is forecasting a wide range for Avatar 2’s career total — $315 million to $415 million (RMB 2.2 billion-RMB 2.9 billion) — reflecting the unpredictability of the moment.

 

***

 

Okay. So that's a range of 315 M - 415 M.

Kal loves that 415m run number. We can do more though! ( Hope we creep over 500m)

 

 

" Let's Get It Done!"

[AnDr3s]

the first act is not very good but after that i couldn`t believe my eyes how good it looked.

The story gets better but christ the dialogue even for me that i am not very good at English was horrendus.

[Sheldon Cr]

7 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the first act is not very good but after that i couldn`t believe my eyes how good it looked.

The story gets better but christ the dialogue even for me that i am not very good at English was horrendus.

 

7 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

the first act is not very good but after that i couldn`t believe my eyes how good it looked.

The story gets better but christ the dialogue even for me that i am not very good at English was horrendus.

Well glad you dare to be different brother.   Most everyone I know said First act is great and they could feel the 3HR run time.