Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Issac Newton]

12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

If we assume only 3d showings, what's the maximum possible domestic ow?

$150M will be the maximum height..

 

I am not actually high bowling the expectations but to just make it far more sensible like "Finally, the biggest anticipated sequel to the biggest Global film is in theatres" 

 

Global Debut makes less sense here though I (think) it should trend like Titanic (the pain of waiting many years)

 

Japan Trend was good (it's all time 11th) &it's the last hope of Hollywood revival here if Jurassic Park, Fantastic Beast &Light Year failed to reach ¥5B. Potentially, it can cross ¥10B but every one how hard Frozen II (¥13.37B) from Frozen (¥25.50B) which pains me hard!!

[XXR vs XXR]

25 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

So about that domestic (to make it easy) debut, are those numbers even possible?

 

$400M is possible for the right movie, sure. If you had Endgame hype for instance, with NWH level of OW showtimes then $400M would happen.

It's not possible for Avatar 2 though, because there's definitely not that kind of "must see first" type interest, domestically. 

 

27 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

If I remember correctly Endgame was already struggling with packed theaters and that was "only" 350 million and it had a "luxury" of having 2D screens, something avatar 2 will not have (I assume 3D could represent 90% of the ow). 

 

I'm not exactly sure what this means. Why wouldn't Avatar had 2D screens? Most people don't even like 3D. 3D definitely won't be 90% of its OW. 

[Tarintino]

2 hours ago, Brainbug said:

 

... Just please dont be disappointed if it settles with a pathetic 2,1 Billion. This reminds me of the more lunatic avatar predictions.

 

 

WTF

 

Embraced lunacy.

 

I dont get disappointed by box office numbers. It's just me giving my prediction the way I see things. It is a lunatic prediction because his last 2 movies posted lunatic numbers therefore lunacy must be taken into account. Its doubtful anyone expect Titanic and Avatar's OS grosses alone top the previous WW record holders, I'm just betting on him doing it just 1 more time. 

 

If it makes only 2.1b despite being very well recieved then ill be scratching my head. If its terrible and it makes that then it's inline with what I'd expect

 

 

[Tarintino]

2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

I tried to predict the Global Debut 

$400M : DOM

$550M : MLC

$900M : OS

== {$1850M} ==

 

There is a chance of $2000M global Debut... Though, it largely depends on simultaneous /same day release in Mainland China!! Even if it doesn't make big debut, we are likely to see another Titanic run ｡◕‿◕｡

The OW for Avatar is a complete wild card. We have never had a sequel to the highest grossing movie of all time with the exception of Jurassic Park: The lost World which broke the OW record at the time. With Disney's marketing, you know hype will be everywhere weeks before release.

 

I wont try and predict the OS OW as I dont have a clue. Domestically though I see Jurassic World's adjusted OW as the floor for now, but I want to see a trailer before making a proper prediction.

 

300m wouldnt surprise me, and with that the Dom record would be toast. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

52 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

$400M is possible for the right movie, sure. If you had Endgame hype for instance, with NWH level of OW showtimes then $400M would happen.

It's not possible for Avatar 2 though, because there's definitely not that kind of "must see first" type interest, domestically. 

 

 

I'm not exactly sure what this means. Why wouldn't Avatar had 2D screens? Most people don't even like 3D. 3D definitely won't be 90% of its OW. 

 

If you (general audience member) are someone who watched avatar in 3D (81% of domestic tickets and 72% internationally) and is interested in Avatar 2 but only in 2D then I'd had to wonder what the heck are you(general audience member) doing?

 

A big part of my avatar 2 prediction rests on the fact that I expect James Camero to place as much emphasis on 3D as back in 2009. And if the 3D is as good or better than in 2009 I don't see why that wouldn't work specially when avatar 2 comes with 1 billion dollars worth of fans. 

 

The only reasons that 3d tickets did not represent 90% of both dom and ww was that there were many places that didnt have 3D screens at the time. Everyone that remembers Avatar will want to watch 2 in 3D. Doesn't matter if you don't particularly liked 3D, cause avatar in 3D is supposed to be different.

 

Doubt there's many people willing to sacrifice the avatar 2 3d experience in order to not get spoiled, so I can very easily see them just waiting if all 3d screens are sold out. 

 

The question then becomes how many 3d screens are there and how high can an OW that relies solely on them can go. 

Edited February 20, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[BruiseCruise]

Whats the ceiling for OW in china? 

[Issac Newton]

7 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Whats the ceiling for OW in china? 

If you overdrive the limit with maximum shows then $600M is the max potential. At present, it can go up to $500M but considering the inflation &ticket hike in each season. $550M will be the max potential in Dec. Well, this does not include any Thursday Previews i.e. Fri-Sun.

[Issac Newton]

35 minutes ago, Tarintino said:

 

300m wouldnt surprise me, and with that the Dom record would be toast. 

Along with numbers of records in all-time charts in numbers of countries!!👀

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

If you overdrive the limit with maximum shows then $600M is the max potential. At present, it can go up to $500M but considering the inflation &ticket hike in each season. $550M will be the max potential in Dec. Well, this does not include any Thursday Previews i.e. Fri-Sun.

Endgame "only" did 175 million, and DC3 did 398 million but that was during CNY, with 2 marketing campaigns and the corona-bonus

are 400 million+ opening weekends really possible outside CNY?

I myself would be perfectly happy with 300 million 

[Valonqar]

I'm cautious about predicting the boxoffice cause Avatar 2 will be a pretty big change from Avatar. The first movie was a romance. This movie is more about Jaketiri children with some (pre)teen crushes which is basically a whole different audience. You go from adult characters (and some adult content) to kids as a focus. And kids could go either way - you have the Losers on one side, and annoying precocious movie kids on the other side. Which way will Avatar go? 

Edited February 20, 2022 by Valonqar

[Issac Newton]

1 minute ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Endgame "only" did 175 million, and DC3 did 398 million but that was during CNY, with 2 marketing campaigns and the corona-bonus

are 400 million+ opening weekends really possible outside CNY?

I myself would be perfectly happy with 300 million 

Agree with you. Avatar is very big in China.. Well, I didn't focus that directly to Avatar 2 but if it get maximum shows with a good avg. Ticket price then $500M is a possibility.

 

BTW, MLC includes PRC, ROC, Hong Kong (SAR) &Macau (SAR)

[Issac Newton]

Never mind, I don't think a new Global Debut record is necessary to prove it's Anticipation but yeah, I really want to see it trending like Titanic 😃

[excel1]

This is an extremely difficult movie to predict. I can see it going either way. The media will make a huge deal out of this, but on the other hand, the original left zero pop culture foot print and has not aged well.

[BruiseCruise]

34 minutes ago, excel1 said:

This is an extremely difficult movie to predict. I can see it going either way. The media will make a huge deal out of this, but on the other hand, the original left zero pop culture foot print and has not aged well.

Has not aged well According to who? Honestly I'm of the belief that a lot of the hate avatar gets is for same reason marvel movies do which is the utterly insane box office numbers crushing everything in it's path

[interiorgatordecorator]

27 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Has not aged well According to who? Honestly I'm of the belief that a lot of the hate avatar gets is for same reason marvel movies do which is the utterly insane box office numbers crushing everything in it's path

Its aged terribly in the sense than since 2010 only the chinese (I don't know what species those who bought 3d tvs are) have been able to watch the movie the way it's supposed to be watched 

 

I remember someone once mentioning that they wished avatar was released in theaters once a year  so that everyone could experience the 3d

[excel1]

42 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:

Has not aged well According to who? Honestly I'm of the belief that a lot of the hate avatar gets is for same reason marvel movies do which is the utterly insane box office numbers crushing everything in it's path

 

Not one thing related to the film has had any longevity within pop culture. No quotes, no actors, no characters, no set pieces, no music....nothing. 

 

It's lasting effect on movies was the 3D craze.

[Borobudur]

On 2/19/2022 at 4:43 AM, Eric Drake said:

 

Another "excuse" for A2 to delay? 

[SchumacherFTW]

6 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

If you (general audience member) are someone who watched avatar in 3D (81% of domestic tickets and 72% internationally) and is interested in Avatar 2 but only in 2D then I'd had to wonder what the heck are you(general audience member) doing?

 

A big part of my avatar 2 prediction rests on the fact that I expect James Camero to place as much emphasis on 3D as back in 2009. And if the 3D is as good or better than in 2009 I don't see why that wouldn't work specially when avatar 2 comes with 1 billion dollars worth of fans. 

 

The only reasons that 3d tickets did not represent 90% of both dom and ww was that there were many places that didnt have 3D screens at the time. Everyone that remembers Avatar will want to watch 2 in 3D. Doesn't matter if you don't particularly liked 3D, cause avatar in 3D is supposed to be different.

 

Doubt there's many people willing to sacrifice the avatar 2 3d experience in order to not get spoiled, so I can very easily see them just waiting if all 3d screens are sold out. 

 

The question then becomes how many 3d screens are there and how high can an OW that relies solely on them can go. 

I wouldn't expect anything close to the 3D share of the first film. People have seen a lot of 3D movies now, and most are pretty happy sticking with 2D. 50/60% 3D might be possible on OW for sure, but I can't imagine it going higher at all. 

[Noctis]

3 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Another "excuse" for A2 to delay? 

 

Maybe you should first wish that he rests in peace.

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I wouldn't expect anything close to the 3D share of the first film. People have seen a lot of 3D movies now, and most are pretty happy sticking with 2D. 50/60% 3D might be possible on OW for sure, but I can't imagine it going higher at all. 

 

On the other hand, if James Cameron/Lightstorm/Disney mandates that a set percentage of screens/showings MUST be 3D, it really doesn't matter if the GA in many countries now prefer 2D over 3D. 

 

From my anecdotal tracking of my local market, sure does seem that directors/studios can have preferences on 3D/2D share made/enforced when it comes to distribution.  If James Cameron wants a 75/25 (more more) 3D/2D split, are theaters gonna tell him, "No"?

 

This is low-key one of the things I'm utterly fascinated about when it comes to A2's run in the DOM market.  It is clear that the US now overwhelmingly prefers 2D to 3D, no matter what the film is. 

 

At the same time, what James Cameron wants, James Cameron tends to get.  And if he wants the vast majority of showings to be in 3D?  Like I said, fascinated to see it play out with theaters and in turn how it plays with ticket buyers.

Edited February 21, 2022 by Porthos