Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[interiorgatordecorator]

Just humour me for a second

Lets just talk about domestic to keep things simple and assume Disney believes this will maximize grosses 

 

What if Avatar 2 only released in 3D in exchange for theaters keeping its showtimes/showings static till march and giving it favorable ones till april

Would such an arrangement even be possible?

Looking at 2023s release schedule, apart from Kraven the Hunter and The Marvels there doesn't seem to be anything before may that would even benefit from 3D, and i'm sure Disney would be willing to sacrifice The Marvels 3D revenue if Avatar 2 went record hunting

Onevatar was a much inferior experience in 2D, so why not simply take that option away from 3D-reluctant domestic audiences?

Of course making the assumption that 2s 3D is much better than 1s, which was already better than anything there's ever been in the market (I saw Gravity on a pc so I can't comment on that one)

I know Dune pulled a similar stunt in China but I have no idea if Dune was ever expected to make more than the 40 million it ultimately got or if Dunes 3d conversion is even good in the first place

 

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Porthos]

38 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Just humour me for a second

Lets just talk about domestic to keep things simple and assume Disney believes this will maximize grosses 

 

Given the way Disney's been acting the last two years, it's a pretty big assumption to make that Disney does care about "maximizing grosses".

Edited February 21, 2022 by Porthos

[Lothar]

Just a reminder.

we are 297 days and 15 hours away from A2 getting released.

[hw64]

12 hours ago, Lothar said:

Just a reminder.

we are 297 days and 15 hours away from A2 getting released.

[Valonqar]

OMG, that /tv/ meme! 

[Ozymandias]

Not even a still of this 10 months out?  I hope all those VFX artists aren't overheating their computers working overtime.

[Brainbug]

32 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Not even a still of this 10 months out?  I hope all those VFX artists aren't overheating their computers working overtime.

 

You ... actually believe this will come out in 10 months?

 

It will get delayed again. It must

[AniNate]

51 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

Not even a still of this 10 months out?  I hope all those VFX artists aren't overheating their computers working overtime.

 

There've been a couple stills.

 

Also to reiterate, August 24, 2009.

Edited February 21, 2022 by AniNate

[WittyUsername]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

 

There've been a couple stills.

 

Also to reiterate, August 24, 2009.

Weren’t those stills just concept art? 

[AniNate]

Ok, one still of their adopted son being introduced. Still, it's dumb to make any assumptions about a perceived lack of promotional material ten months out for any movie. What we have so far is still a lot more than what we had for the original.

 

 

Edited February 21, 2022 by AniNate

[interiorgatordecorator]

26 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Ok, one still of their adopted son being introduced. Still, it's dumb to make any assumptions about a perceived lack of promotional material ten months out for any movie. What we have so far is still a lot more than what we had for the original.

 

 

 

expanding on your point here's the paraphrased wikipedia section

 

First photo of the film was released on August 14, 2009

SD comic-con 25 minutes of footage screened in 3D

 August 21 'Avatar Day', teaser trailer, official game trailer and toy line  unveiled 

2nd trailer premiered in theaters on October 23, 2009, then online  

 extended version of trailer in Imax 3d had overwhelmingly positive reviews

THR: audience expectations colored by "the [same] establishment skepticism that preceded Titanic" and suggested the showing reflected the desire for original storytelling.

 

 

Maybe a teaser with DS2 and then nothing till a 15min sneak peak bundled with a 3D-only re-release in august/september, final trailer in late october

 

 

[hw64]

I'm generally one of the more conservative/realist predictors in this thread, but boy, let me tell you, after having just done some research into the post-pandemic ticket price inflation that's been happening, I've fully drunk the Kool-Aid and I'm now very open to the possibility of this doing $3.5b.

 

I also never thought it'd be likely for Avatar 2 to surpass the domestic gross of the original, but again, looking at the current average domestic ticket prices, I can definitely see this coming very close to or surpassing Avatar's $760m.

Edited February 22, 2022 by hw64

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 hours ago, hw64 said:

I'm generally one of the more conservative/realist predictors in this thread, but boy, let me tell you, after having just done some research into the post-pandemic ticket price inflation that's been happening, I've fully drunk the Kool-Aid and I'm now very open to the possibility of this doing $3.5b.

 

I also never thought it'd be likely for Avatar 2 to surpass the domestic gross of the original, but again, looking at the current average domestic ticket prices, I can definitely see this coming very close to or surpassing Avatar's $760m.

 

Give me the numbers

Everyone mentions the inflation but never the numbers

How much for 3D and its premium format variations?

[hw64]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Give me the numbers

Everyone mentions the inflation but never the numbers

How much for 3D and its premium format variations?

 

I don't have specific format breakdowns for you, but to give you some examples, the average ticket price in domestic AMC theaters increased from $9.47 in Q2 2019 to $10.98 in Q3 2021 (+16%), and the average ticket price in domestic Cinemark theaters increased from $8.12 in Q2 2019 to $9.33 in Q2 2021 (+15%).

 

As far I can tell from NATO's quarterly average ticket price data for Q4 2009 onwards and BOM's yearly average data for pre-2009 years, this is by far the biggest increase in a 2-year period since the 70s when actual inflation was driving up ticket prices at rapid rates. Even during the 3D boom, ticket prices didn't rise anywhere near as fast.

 

It's happening overseas, too: in Cineworld theaters in the UK and Ireland, ticket prices have increased from an average of $8.53 across Q1-Q2 2019 to a whopping $11.62 (+36%) across Q1-Q2 2021.

 

Q4 2021 data isn't yet available, but Q4 is almost always the quarter with the highest average ticket price, and especially with No Way Home I imagine the averages will have gone through the roof even further.

Edited February 23, 2022 by hw64

[Deuce66]

It wouldn't surprise me if the PR machine fully rolls out starting with......

 

San Diego Comic Con for 2022 is slated for July 21-24. 

 

Official Twitter feed 

https://twitter.com/Comic_Con

[AniNate]

D23 in September will likely be the big promotional vehicle

[TomCruiseTop]

22 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

It wouldn't surprise me if the PR machine fully rolls out starting with......

 

San Diego Comic Con for 2022 is slated for July 21-24. 

 

Official Twitter feed 

https://twitter.com/Comic_Con

I also think this is where we'll see the first look, and D23 when it REALLY goes hard, unless Jim wants to keep the DIS association separate.

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

That's not up to Cameron. Disney owns the IP and the distribution to the product.

 

That said they will try to accommodate his wishes so they don't risk losing the talent. Avatar was front and center on Disney+ not too long ago though, so not sure Jimbo would care about that association.

[AniNate]

The Disney association ship sailed when that attraction was opened up at WDW

[AdrianL]

your move WB... 

 

If Wonka is ready WB should switch release dates with Aquaman.