Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Elessar]

6 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

 There hasn’t been much reference or hype surrounding its 3D effect, which could suggest that the 3d will largely stay as awesome as in 2009 but nothing revolutionary to yell around 

 

How can one revolutionize 3D? I don't think Avatar revolutionized 3D either, it just used it very well, it was shot with it in mind.

[Macleod]

12 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

Currently most of the hype are mostly streaming from underwater motion capture. There hasn’t been much reference or hype surrounding its 3D effect, which could suggest that the 3d will largely stay as awesome as in 2009 but nothing revolutionary to yell around 

 

 

Don't forget what Spock observed about Khan in Star Trek II.

[Napoleon]

On 3/4/2022 at 7:55 PM, WittyUsername said:

 

Regardless of the age of the thread, the fact that it managed to pass 1000 pages without so much as a single teaser is something I don’t think any other movie on these forums managed to accomplish. 

Batman v Superman and Star Wars: The Force Awakens did it as well.

[AniNate]

11 hours ago, Elessar said:

 

How can one revolutionize 3D? I don't think Avatar revolutionized 3D either, it just used it very well, it was shot with it in mind.

 

Figure out how to present it without glasses

[interiorgatordecorator]

Is Untitled 20th Century Studios Film (september 23, 2022) (WIDE) the Avatar re-release?

 

Doesn't seem like the greatest release date to me, same day Puss in boots and only 2 weeks before enter the spider-verse and 3 weeks before Halloween Ends and a Wonder spin-off

 

Specially when Disney was also holding to the excellent august 12 release date, which they ended up giving to an untitled searchlight movie

 

Gonna have to revise my re-release predictions a little bit, but I still feel like as long as they update the visuals a bit, use the Extended Collector's Edition, include some sort of avatar 2 content, market it a bit and also release it in China, I feel like it should have a good shot at getting to 800 million domestic and 3 billion. 

 

 

Edited March 6, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Tarintino]

21 hours ago, Elessar said:

 

How can one revolutionize 3D? I don't think Avatar revolutionized 3D either, it just used it very well, it was shot with it in mind.

I read a while back that James Cameron was working on brightening up the 3d which I think would have a big effect. One of my gripes with 3d was how it gave the overall image a darker tint, made obvious when removing the glasses half way through a movie. You saw the vibrant colours that was being substituted for the 3d effect. Fixing that issue would have a positive effect.

[Tarintino]

10 hours ago, AniNate said:

 

Figure out how to present it without glasses

It would require huge investments from theatre chains which arent likely a top priority for them in this market

[Porthos]

On 3/5/2022 at 5:12 AM, Elessar said:

 

How can one revolutionize 3D? I don't think Avatar revolutionized 3D either, it just used it very well, it was shot with it in mind.

 

23 hours ago, Macleod said:

 

 

Don't forget what Spock observed about Khan in Star Trek II.

 

In case a bunch of heathens here don't get the reference:

 

"He is intelligent, but not experienced. His pattern indicates two dimensional thinking."  with the reference that Khan's ship was only moving in traditional naval ways of left-right/back-forth and not up-down.

 

If I were to try to translate this and not take it literally, this would be that this film isn't just a 2D film with 3D bells and whistles, but made from the ground up to use 3D as a storytelling mechanism/part of showing visual effects to the movie-goer.

 

If it is supposed to be more literal?  Well I'm not sure exactly what that would be thanks to my own 2D thinking, but it would imply that a lot of the storytelling/experienced value of the movie would be lost in a shift to 2D.

Edited March 6, 2022 by Porthos

[Porthos]

You know, a thought just struck me.

 

For a film that completed principal photography ages ago and has been in the hands of vfx shop(s) for gawd knows how long, there has been a… curious silence from the scooper/leaks community.  At least as far as I know.  Just took a super quick glance and I didn’t see much of anything out there.

 

It’s refreshing to see, but I do wonder if there are second order implications here.  The first, and obvious, layer of implications is that Jim and co are running an incredibly tight ship, which is nothing short of miraculous given the lead time, even with draconian NDAs.  The second layer is that the scooper bros and gals out there aren’t furiously digging for dish/making stuff up, which is… 

 

Well, on the one hand, they’re all busy with Marvel/DC/SW/whatever intrigues, but it does show a lack of curiosity on their part, I would think.  Does mean that Jim and Disney will have a freer hand to shape the rollout of this film.  But kinda wonder when the hype machine from the scooper community is gonna get turned on, or if it will at all.

 

Not that I think this film will need it to be successful.  Just struck me as a little odd, is all, and wanted to point it out.

 

[Macleod]

22 minutes ago, Porthos said:

You know, a thought just struck me.

 

For a film that completed principal photography ages ago and has been in the hands of vfx shop(s) for gawd knows how long, there has been a… curious silence from the scooper/leaks community.  At least as far as I know.  Just took a super quick glance and I didn’t see much of anything out there.

 

It’s refreshing to see, but I do wonder if there are second order implications here.  The first, and obvious, layer of implications is that Jim and co are running an incredibly tight ship, which is nothing short of miraculous given the lead time, even with draconian NDAs.  The second layer is that the scooper bros and gals out there aren’t furiously digging for dish/making stuff up, which is… 

 

Well, on the one hand, they’re all busy with Marvel/DC/SW/whatever intrigues, but it does show a lack of curiosity on their part, I would think.  Does mean that Jim and Disney will have a freer hand to shape the rollout of this film.  But kinda wonder when the hype machine from the scooper community is gonna get turned on, or if it will at all.

 

Not that I think this film will need it to be successful.  Just struck me as a little odd, is all, and wanted to point it out.

 

 

This will of course sound sanctimonious/pretentious to some, but having heard this firsthand, there's a loyalty to Jim's work that supersedes traditional blockbuster/studio filmmaking dynamics.  He is the King.  He's earned it.  The industry agrees.  And it's not just through his sheer force of will, but because he truly is one of the best storytellers out there, and of course because he only demands the best out of everyone who works with him.  (Seriously, why else would Kate Winslet want to suffer through water dynamics with him *again* unless she truly believed in what he's doing? 😉)  If Cameron is going to move the art forward, he needs everyone on board with the same commitment -- and he usually gets that.  And not in a Michael Bay "Get that damn pyrotechnic done!" way...but in the best way possible -- by showing what kind of miraculous achievements can be made when everyone is on the same page working towards truly innovating the medium.  

 

And again I would say, as I've hinted at numerous times before in this thread's history -- we're not just talking about three-dimensional thinking in terms of technique -- we're talking about innovating the process of filmmaking, itself.  So I would say to consider more the idea of what the stories could be for these films has evolved while they've been shooting, if that makes sense.  That happens with many movies in smaller ways, yes, but here it's about the whole process.  So even when Jim says "We've shot Movie #2 and Movie #3, etc. "... you never quite know what might still change.  Thankfully, 20th Century and Disney have understood that genius requires time.  

 

But it *sounds* like we're finally on our way to a theatrical debut of Movie #2 this year!  

 

And as far as fanboys go, well...lower expectations never hurt anyone. 😉  And yes, Cameron runs a very, very tight ship.  

[Porthos]

5 minutes ago, Macleod said:

And as far as fanboys go, well...lower expectations never hurt anyone. 😉 

 

Not sure some of the fans on this thread got that message, mind.

 

(yes yes, those are their "lowered" expectations - rejoinder taken in advance)

[interiorgatordecorator]

On 2/22/2022 at 7:37 PM, hw64 said:

 

I don't have specific format breakdowns for you, but to give you some examples, the average ticket price in domestic AMC theaters increased from $9.47 in Q2 2019 to $10.98 in Q3 2021 (+16%), and the average ticket price in domestic Cinemark theaters increased from $8.12 in Q2 2019 to $9.33 in Q2 2021 (+15%).

 

As far I can tell from NATO's quarterly average ticket price data for Q4 2009 onwards and BOM's yearly average data for pre-2009 years, this is by far the biggest increase in a 2-year period since the 70s when actual inflation was driving up ticket prices at rapid rates. Even during the 3D boom, ticket prices didn't rise anywhere near as fast.

 

It's happening overseas, too: in Cineworld theaters in the UK and Ireland, ticket prices have increased from an average of $8.53 across Q1-Q2 2019 to a whopping $11.62 (+36%) across Q1-Q2 2021.

 

Q4 2021 data isn't yet available, but Q4 is almost always the quarter with the highest average ticket price, and especially with No Way Home I imagine the averages will have gone through the roof even further.

 

https://deadline.com/2022/03/batman-spiderman-movie-ticket-price-increase-amc-1234972159/

 

it's much worse than you thought 

 

This is definitely doing 3 billion (if not more)

 

an over 50% increase since q1 2019 for batman tickets in amc, nearly 40% increase in cinemark 

 

EDIT: seems like i'm reading the information wrong, but increase the in prices should be over 20% since 2019

Edited March 6, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

https://deadline.com/2022/03/batman-spiderman-movie-ticket-price-increase-amc-1234972159/

 

it's much worse than you thought 

 

This is definitely doing 3 billion (if not more)

 

an over 50% increase since q1 2019 for batman tickets in amc, nearly 40% increase in cinemark 

 

Those are OW prices for The Batman, not quarterly averages. Q1 2022 will be something around 17% ahead of Q1 2019. If prices had actually increased that much, it would imply Endgame would make $525M OW right now when in actuality it would be about $415M.

[interiorgatordecorator]

15 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

Those are OW prices for The Batman, not quarterly averages. Q1 2022 will be something around 17% ahead of Q1 2019. If prices had actually increased that much, it would imply Endgame would make $525M OW right now when in actuality it would be about $415M.

 

Then I might be overreacting

 

I just hope NATO doesn't take much longer to come back

[Tarintino]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

You know, a thought just struck me.

 

For a film that completed principal photography ages ago and has been in the hands of vfx shop(s) for gawd knows how long, there has been a… curious silence from the scooper/leaks community.  At least as far as I know.  Just took a super quick glance and I didn’t see much of anything out there.

 

It’s refreshing to see, but I do wonder if there are second order implications here.  The first, and obvious, layer of implications is that Jim and co are running an incredibly tight ship, which is nothing short of miraculous given the lead time, even with draconian NDAs.  The second layer is that the scooper bros and gals out there aren’t furiously digging for dish/making stuff up, which is… 

 

Well, on the one hand, they’re all busy with Marvel/DC/SW/whatever intrigues, but it does show a lack of curiosity on their part, I would think.  Does mean that Jim and Disney will have a freer hand to shape the rollout of this film.  But kinda wonder when the hype machine from the scooper community is gonna get turned on, or if it will at all.

 

Not that I think this film will need it to be successful.  Just struck me as a little odd, is all, and wanted to point it out.

 

I dont think theres much to scoop for Avatar as there is no pre-existing material like comics or 20 years of iconic movie characters to draw base with. The fanbase is already built up for CBM's so rumours of a spider-man reunion and now for Dr Strange potential cameos make for good scooping material. Every time a new CBM is released, there are fans already wanting to know which villain they intend to use and it creates interest. Avatar 2 being a new franchise wont have that type for extreme interest at this point

Edited March 6, 2022 by Tarintino

[hw64]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

EDIT: seems like i'm reading the information wrong, but increase the in prices should be over 20% since 2019

 

Yeah — as mentioned above, the average ticket price for a major blockbuster in any given quarter is always going to be some 15-20%+ above the overall average ticket price for that quarter.

 

In AMC theaters, which we now have Q4 2021 data for, the average ticket price in Q4 2021 was $11.50, up 21% from Q2 2019's $9.47. As mentioned in that article, No Way Home's opening weekend average ticket price at AMC theaters was $13.92, up a further 21% from the AMC Q4 2021 average. A movie like Endgame's ATP would have been similarly higher than the overall quarterly average.

 

So while they're not the 40-50% price hikes that you first thought, the increases are still very significant.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Yeah — as mentioned above, the average ticket price for a major blockbuster in any given quarter is always going to be some 15-20%+ above the overall average ticket price for that quarter.

 

In AMC theaters, which we now have Q4 2021 data for, the average ticket price in Q4 2021 was $11.50, up 21% from Q2 2019's $9.47. As mentioned in that article, No Way Home's opening weekend average ticket price at AMC theaters was $13.92, up a further 21% from the AMC Q4 2021 average. A movie like Endgame's ATP would have been similarly higher than the overall quarterly average.

 

So while they're not the 40-50% price hikes that you first thought, the increases are still very significant.

 

The main thing all this tells me is that a film with Endgame level hype + a runtime under 160 minutes (NWH had 10-15% more showtimes than EG) could make over $475M OW right now. 

[tawasal]

2 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

https://deadline.com/2022/03/batman-spiderman-movie-ticket-price-increase-amc-1234972159/

 

it's much worse than you thought 

 

This is definitely doing 3 billion (if not more)

 

an over 50% increase since q1 2019 for batman tickets in amc, nearly 40% increase in cinemark 

 

EDIT: seems like i'm reading the information wrong, but increase the in prices should be over 20% since 2019

I don't know much about the US, but here in Europe they have raised the prices of everything, almost 2x what they used to be. 

Last night 1 paid around 24 USD TO 27 USD for a single IMAX ticket. It used to be around half than that. 

[hw64]

34 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:

 

The main thing all this tells me is that a film with Endgame level hype + a runtime under 160 minutes (NWH had 10-15% more showtimes than EG) could make over $475M OW right now. 

 

With these levels of ticket price inflation, all unadjusted records set in the past decade are assailable (and moreover, assailable by less successful films). TFA's $937m domestic record (and indeed, $1b domestic) could quite easily be reached by a film that sells significantly fewer tickets than TFA.

 

Similarly, Avatar's $2.8b worldwide unadjusted gross is weaker than ever and, quite frankly, ripe for the taking, just like Titanic's was in 2009. We'll have to see how theatrical recovery continues over 2022, but if we do start seeing something close to normal business consistently — which I think we will — then there are probably going to be quite a lot of "record-breaking" runs over the next few years (such is the nature of unadjusted records anyway, but now more so than ever).

Edited March 6, 2022 by hw64

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

With these levels of ticket price inflation, all unadjusted records set in the past decade are assailable (and more than that, assailable by less successful films). TFA's $937m domestic record (and indeed, $1b domestic) could quite easily be reached by a film that sells significantly fewer tickets than TFA.

 

Similarly, Avatar's $2.8b worldwide unadjusted gross is weaker than ever and, quite frankly, ripe for the taking, just like Titanic's was in 2009. We'll have to see how theatrical recovery continues over 2022, but if we do start seeing something close to normal business consistently — which I think we will — then there are probably going to be quite a lot of "record-breaking" runs over the next few years (such is the nature of unadjusted records anyway, but now more so than ever).

 

I mean, Endgame with todays prices is $1.04B DOM. Prices probably jump at least 10-15% over the next 3-4 years (assuming inflation gets back to a normal range of increase). So Avengers 5 has an OW average price of $15 or so? You’d only need Infinity War level ticket sales (about 24M vs 33M for EG) to beat Endgame’s OW. 
 

Price increases beat all records eventually.