Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[ThomasNicole]

10 minutes ago, Maggie said:

I think Titanic has a good story and great visual effects for its time. I don’t see people hating on Titanic for its story. Avatar, on the other hand…people genuinely have complains

They don't hate now, but everyone trash Titanic in the 00's. This only stop when it lost it's #1 position on box office and hating it wasn't cool anymore. 

 

Honestly it's not much different than what happen with Avatar, i doubt people trully hate this movie, this not only have insane legs back in the day but it's also massive on home video, got very succesful cirque du soleil spectacles and one of the most hyped rides on Disney parks right now, you don't achieve this if people reject it. 

 

People trash it on internet because it's cool, because everyone does. The movie have it's problems, the script is simplistic, but honestly, pretty much all the movies on the top 40 biggest grosses have similar problems. The jokes people do now about basic script and Pocahontas plot, it was the exact same jokes people did in 2009 and that didn't prevent it to break records.

[TomCruiseTop]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Pocahontas plot

I missed the bit in Pocahontas where they go to space and John Smith becomes Native American in the end while also being welcomed with open arms by the tribe. 

[Deep Wang]

7 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

True (to an extent), but that's not the point - they still need the reception to actually develop said legs. A poorly received original would never have been able to break out like Avatar did, no matter how much one would want to push this narrative. It managed to do so because people liked it, and trying to retcon this into audiences somehow hating it seems ridicolous to me. If that was true it simply would not have had the WOM for that multiplier.

 

Yes, I know this, that's why I said "a big part" and not "the only reason."  I know how it works, lol.

 

Which is why I know that Avatar 2 ain't getting near those legs.

[TomCruiseTop]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Which is why I know that Avatar 2 ain't getting near those legs.

What is it about A2 that makes you know this?

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

What is it about A2 that makes you know this?

 

Because that's how the box office works?  It's going to open bigger than the first, and the length of the legs are inversely proportional to the size of the openings.

 

Someone will have to correct me if I'm wrong, but taking a quick look at the top opening weekends, the best legs for anything over $100m opening weekend is Shrek 2's 4.08?

 

Obviously, best case scenario is TFA type legs (3.78), which would be amazing. 

[TomCruiseTop]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Because that's how the box office works?  It's going to open bigger than the first, and the length of the legs are inversely proportional to the size of the openings.

Is this also true for The Terminator to T2?

 

I also don't expect A2's opening weekend to be that big in all honesty, the WC final is on that weekend, which is why I think we will see 100%+ second weekend.

[Deep Wang]

2 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Is this also true for The Terminator to T2?

 

I also don't expect A2's opening weekend to be that big in all honesty, the WC final is on that weekend, which is why I think we will see 100%+ second weekend.

 

The Terminator - 9.45x

Terminator 2 - 6.40x

 

Not all that big as in about how much?

[DAJK]

The only people I have ever seen trash Titanic are people who were alive to remember the (probably very annoying) titanic mania of early 1998. Nobody under the age of 25 that I know irl has ever had anything bad to say about it.

[TomCruiseTop]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The Terminator - 9.45x

Terminator 2 - 6.40x

 

Not all that big as in about how much?

sub 100m to 240m dom (honestly I really have no clue how this is going to play out that first weekend given that I believe the power of Jim is in the quality of his content and the WoM he generates), no clue rest of world but I expect international to be impacted even harder by the WC final.

[TomCruiseTop]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

early 1998

It was longer than that, I remember it lasting into the summer. I really don't know if we'll ever see anything like that again in theatre history.

[Ozymandias]

2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I would have thought hyper gonadal male fantasies are a good fit to go with blue faced white saviours tbh

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hw64]

47 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Someone will have to correct me if I'm wrong, but taking a quick look at the top opening weekends, the best legs for anything over $100m opening weekend is Shrek 2's 4.08?

 

Obviously, best case scenario is TFA type legs (3.78), which would be amazing. 

 

Oh, this is a huge mistake. We should know by now that trying to constrain the future box office performance of a James Cameron movie based solely on prior precedent is incredibly unwise.

 

Outside of Avatar with its 9.73x multiplier, the biggest multiplier for a movie opening over $50m with a conventional Friday opening day is Jumanji: The Next Level's 5.41x multiplier off of its $59.25m opening weekend, which Avatar nearly doubled despite opening 30% higher. The Phantom Menace (6.65x), Independence Day (6.10x) and The Two Towers (5.48x) all had higher multipliers than Jumanji, but they also all opened on a Tuesday or a Wednesday, which burned off demand for their actual opening weekends and significantly skewed their opening weekend multipliers upwards.

 

So basically, no movie in Avatar's opening weekend class is even close to it in terms of legs. To suggest that The Force Awaken's 3.78x multiplier is somehow going to be a ceiling for Avatar 2, despite the fact that it's going to open significantly lower than TFA and despite the fact that the last two James Cameron epics are incredible outliers in terms of legs, I think is very naive.

Edited April 10, 2022 by hw64

[TomCruiseTop]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

Oh, this is a huge mistake. We should know by now that trying to constrain the future box office performance of a James Cameron movie based solely on prior precedent is incredibly unwise.

Incredibly unwise is the modus operandi of people who doubt Jim.

[interiorgatordecorator]

32 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The only people I have ever seen trash Titanic are people who were alive to remember the (probably very annoying) titanic mania of early 1998. Nobody under the age of 25 that I know irl has ever had anything bad to say about it.

 

Not the most representative sample, I know, but /tv/ (where the avatar countdown threads happen) seems to dislike it over what they see as an endorsement of whoredom

 

[TomCruiseTop]

9 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

where the avatar countdown threads happen

Fun fact: I recently bought someone a 3ft by 3ft fibreboard version of the image that is used for those threads - at least I think it is? The same one is used on discord.

 

They're planning on taking it to the premiere.

[hw64]

3 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Fun fact: I recently bought someone a 3ft by 3ft fibreboard version of the image that is used for those threads - at least I think it is? The same one is used on discord.

 

They're planning on taking it to the premiere.

 

Holy fuck, if there's a 3ft Avatar pepe image being waved around at the Avatar 2 premiere, it will make my year.

[Deep Wang]

24 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Oh, this is a huge mistake. We should know by now that trying to constrain the future box office performance of a James Cameron movie based solely on prior precedent is incredibly unwise.

 

Outside of Avatar with its 9.73x multiplier, the biggest multiplier for a movie opening over $50m with a conventional Friday opening day is Jumanji: The Next Level's 5.41x multiplier off of its $59.25m opening weekend, which Avatar nearly doubled despite opening 30% higher. The Phantom Menace (6.65x), Independence Day (6.10x) and The Two Towers (5.48x) all had higher multipliers than Jumanji, but they also all opened on a Tuesday or a Wednesday, which burned off demand for their actual opening weekends and significantly skewed their opening weekend multipliers upwards.

 

So basically, no movie in Avatar's opening weekend class is even close to it in terms of legs. To suggest that The Force Awaken's 3.78x multiplier is somehow going to be a ceiling for Avatar 2, despite the fact that it's going to open significantly lower than TFA and despite the fact that the last two James Cameron epics are incredible outliers in terms of legs, I think is very naive.

 

 

Did I say it couldn't have better than average legs?  I said it wasn't getting close to Avatar's 10x, which it's not.  

 

Ya'll think it's going to behave exactly like his last two for some reason when his last two are literal decades ago.  Movie going habits have changed, a lot.  You don't have to like them, that's just how it is.  If the trailer gets fans hyped, they will rush to see this ASAP. The more people rush to it, the shorter the legs are.  

[TomCruiseTop]

6 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Holy fuck, if there's a 3ft Avatar pepe image being waved around at the Avatar 2 premiere, it will make my year.

It's happening unless he gets grabbed by security. The hard part that I'm currently attempting to navigate is getting him and about 6 other fans tickets to at least one of the major premieres (LA/London/NZ).

[TomCruiseTop]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I said it wasn't getting close to Avatar's 10x, which it's not.

The scenes when it does 20x and Wang says he was technically still correct.

[Elessar]

12 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Ya'll think it's going to behave exactly like his last two for some reason when his last two are literal decades ago.

 

Just wondering, who is "we all"?

 

Outside of one, maybe two individuals, i don't think anyone expects 10x legs or even close.

 

But i'd agree with hw64 that TFA's legs are not best case scenario since it won't open that high either.