Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

On 5/13/2022 at 3:56 AM, titanic2187 said:

Let’s pray china box office flop(especially those local blockbusters) so so bad in the next few months that they have to approve avatar 2 to save them. 

Why would we hope for movies to bomb? ☠️

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, ListenHunnyUrOver said:

Why would we hope for movies to bomb? ☠️

 

for the sake of the chinese audience, would hate for them to miss out on Avatar 2. That is of course working under the assumption that local cinema bombing will cause Avatar 2 to get a large release in China

[TomCruiseTop]

4 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Not a chance in hell the VFX are finished on time.

 

That being said, I do agree that Rogue Squadron likely isn't making it to that date. Disney will likely want to put something there, but a VFX-heavy movie like Avatar 3 can't be it. I'll say it again: their Snow White remake is the most likely candidate to take that slot. I could also see Little Mermaid shift there if VFX crunch gets the best of it.

Wanna bet?

[Deuce66]

8 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Another JCS prediction (after getting the re-release right) Avatar 3 comes out 15th Dec 2023. 

 

Honestly that would not shock me at all, have they even started production on Star Wars "10" or whatever it's called? if not there's no way they are making that date. Avatar III is already completed, the performance capture portion has been done for years now and Cameron himself stated back in Dec that what III needed is a disciplined start to actually editing the movie. He called it way too long. 

 

If Way of Water performs like I think it will, 2023 is not out of the question followed by a 2 year break. 

 

[jedijake]

8 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Not a chance in hell the VFX are finished on time.

 

That being said, I do agree that Rogue Squadron likely isn't making it to that date. Disney will likely want to put something there, but a VFX-heavy movie like Avatar 3 can't be it. I'll say it again: their Snow White remake is the most likely candidate to take that slot. I could also see Little Mermaid shift there if VFX crunch gets the best of it.

Little mermaid will have had about 2 years of post-production by the time Memorial Day 2023 comes. No way that is moving out of its slot. They've wanted a Memorial Day release for that movie ever since Aladdin dominated. And with Little Mermaid's summer theme-it's sticking and doing well.

 

December 2023 is a HUGE enigma right now. Actually, everything after July 2023 is a big fog right now. But Avatar 3 isn't coming out then, that's for sure.

 

But I bet they could throw together another Spidey movie.

Edited May 15, 2022 by jedijake

[interiorgatordecorator]

9 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Another JCS prediction (after getting the re-release right) Avatar 3 comes out 15th Dec 2023. 

 

Is that a good idea?

Avatar 2 could be making some decent money all the way till april, assuming it comes out on digital and physical in june/july that gives you like 6 months between movies, Matrix and star wars have both shown that's not a good thing 

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Matrix and star wars have both shown that's not a good thing 

Agree. The latter Star Wars movies stopped feeling like huge events because there was a new movie every year. 

Avatar movies IMO are fine being scheduled two years apart each other.

I don't think Rouge squadron will come next year, but Disney will most likely replace it with an MCU movie or a live action remake.

 

[WittyUsername]

2 hours ago, jedijake said:

Little mermaid will have had about 2 years of post-production by the time Memorial Day 2023 comes. No way that is moving out of its slot. They've wanted a Memorial Day release for that movie ever since Aladdin dominated. And with Little Mermaid's summer theme-it's sticking and doing well.

 

December 2023 is a HUGE enigma right now. Actually, everything after July 2023 is a big fog right now. But Avatar 3 isn't coming out then, that's for sure.

 

But I bet they could throw together another Spidey movie.

I highly doubt they’ll have a Spider-Man movie ready for December 2023. 

[jedijake]

1 minute ago, WittyUsername said:

I highly doubt they’ll have a Spider-Man movie ready for December 2023. 

I know they won't of course. It was sarcastic way of saying "hey they could throw together a piece of garbage and slap the name Spiderman to it and it will make tons of money".

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

I know they won't of course. It was sarcastic way of saying "hey they could throw together a piece of garbage and slap the name Spiderman to it and it will make tons of money".

One of the problems with TASM was it was somewhat rushed production. SONY kept trying to get the Rami/McGuire Spidey  going after  Film 3, and when it was clear that was not going to happen they had limited time to get a Spidey movie in theaters or the franchise would revert back to Marvel studios.They had to throw together TASM to meet a deadline,

[IronJimbo]

12 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Is that a good idea?

Avatar 2 could be making some decent money all the way till april, assuming it comes out on digital and physical in june/july that gives you like 6 months between movies, Matrix and star wars have both shown that's not a good thing 

 

10 hours ago, Grebacio said:

Agree. The latter Star Wars movies stopped feeling like huge events because there was a new movie every year. 

Avatar movies IMO are fine being scheduled two years apart each other.

I don't think Rouge squadron will come next year, but Disney will most likely replace it with an MCU movie or a live action remake.

 

 

That is actually up in the air. We have two major examples. Star Wars prequels (+friends) and both Infinity War movies.

 

In the RED CORNER (red means evil in star wars)
Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens (2015, Dec): $2.06b WW, $936m DOM, $248m DOM OW
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story            (2016, Dec): $1.06b WW
Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi          (2017, Dec): $1.33b WW, $620m DOM, $220m DOM OW
Solo: A Star Wars Story                      (2018, May): $393m WW
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker         (2019, Dec): $1.07b WW, $515m DOM, $177m DOM OW

 

In the BLUE CORNER

Avengers: Infinity War (2018, April): $2.05b WW, $679 DOM, $258m DOM OW
Avengers: Endgame    (2019, April): $2.78b WW, $858m DOM, $357m DOM OW

 

Some key facts:

Endgame came 1 year after Infinity War

Endgame made huge gains across the board

Star Wars Released their main saga film once every 2 years

Star Wars filled the gaps with 'Star Wars stories'

The Last Jedi made 34% Less total money domestically Force Awakens and 11% less on the opening weekend domestically.

Rise of Skywalker made 20% less total money domestically than The Last Jedi and 20% less on the opening weekend domestically.

 

I think using Star Wars sequels as an example of a 1 year gap is poor form. The main movies came in 2 year intervals. You could easily say that the hype died down because of the 2 year gaps and secondary movies in between.

Here is an interesting thought, what if The Last Jedi was released in December 2016 instead of Rogue One?  I would wager it would have made more money especially on the opening weekend.

 

Now we go into opinion..

Why did Star Wars do so poorly with The Last Jedi? Well now I'm going into opinion zones but I think the new characters in The Force Awakens didn't land. The Force Awakens was such a bland film that got people to the cinemas through hype and nostalgia, it will go down as an Average/Low Star Wars film. So in other words, The Force Awakens was not a good advertisement for the next film.

 

Whereas with Infinity War, it left everyone on such a massive cliffhanger and it was arguable the best MCU movie to date.

 

Depsite The Force Awakens being a poor advert for the next film, The Last Jedi made just 11% less on the opening weekend. However 34% less overall, which means terrible legs which we have to assume is because of the bad reception it got. 

 

Anyway, I guess my point is it really makes no sense to point to Star Wars as a reason not to do 1 year gaps for AVATAR.

It would look like this.

A2 2022

A3 2023

A4 2026

A5 2027

the movies will all be amazing too

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by IronJimbo

[TomCruiseTop]

13 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

Is that a good idea?

Avatar 2 could be making some decent money all the way till april, assuming it comes out on digital and physical in june/july that gives you like 6 months between movies, Matrix and star wars have both shown that's not a good thing 

Comparing Jim's Opus to Modern Star Wars or The Matrix movies is mad. Think about it closer to The Hobbit - back to back smash and then a breather. 

[AniNate]

Maybe Lord of the Rings might be a preferable example over The Hobbit?

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Maybe Lord of the Rings might be a preferable example over The Hobbit?

Looking at most trilogies or two-part movies release 1 year apart. It really does seem like the sequels only increase in box office revenue.

 

In terms of numbers the hobbit and lotr are kinda the same, small increase each movie

[Brainbug]

21 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Looking at most trilogies or two-part movies release 1 year apart. It really does seem like the sequels only increase in box office revenue.

 

In terms of numbers the hobbit and lotr are kinda the same, small increase each movie

 

?

The Hobbit films decreased DOM with each movie, WW Hobbit 2 and 3 grossed practically the same amount whiloe dropping from the 1st. LOTR got bigger with each one. Nearly opposite trajectories.

[IronJimbo]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

 

?

The Hobbit films decreased DOM with each movie, WW Hobbit 2 and 3 grossed practically the same amount whiloe dropping from the 1st. LOTR got bigger with each one. Nearly opposite trajectories.

oh thanks for that, when i checked earlier today it looks like the films were in reverse chronological order which my brain apparently didn't account for

[AniNate]

THR article about new 3D strategy

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/business-news/disney-3d-format-avatar-2-theatrical-movie-theaters-1235146419/

 

[Deep Wang]

4 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Looking at most trilogies or two-part movies release 1 year apart. It really does seem like the sequels only increase in box office revenue.

 

Pirates 2 > 3 dropped 

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Pirates 2 > 3 dropped 

 

from my memory people were disappointed in pirates 2 because it was worse than the first

 

[WittyUsername]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

from my memory people were disappointed in pirates 2 because it was worse than the first

 

The same thing happened with The Matrix movies.