Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

18 minutes ago, MessiahXXR said:

 

I could def be wrong and I wouldn't be surprised because I can see a huge range for this. My number is currently somewhere in the 6's.

 

what makes you think Avatar 2 will half the admissions of the first film?

[Deep Wang]

12 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

what makes you think Avatar 2 will half the admissions of the first film?

 

How many admissions do you think it's going to get and what makes you think that?

[hw64]

50m admissions, down 30-35% from the original's 75-80m admissions, could, quite conceivably, get this to $700m. Don't underestimate post-2020 ticket price inflation.

[IronJimbo]

8 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

How many admissions do you think it's going to get and what makes you think that?

 

Well, my view is that the film itself it going to strike the audience in their soul like the first film. People are going to be taken to Pandora, so I'm working in the framework that its as rewatchable and mindblowing as the first.

 

WIth that in mind, I believe the opening weekend is going to be comfortably over $200m and I'm expecting the highest grossing second weekend of all time. The most rewatchable film in cinema in over 13 years

 

Why over $200m opening weekend, well the first Avatar in my opinion makes $100m without the snow storm. Ppening weekend back when December openings were smaller, what would that release look like in 2022? Probably over $150m.

Now, this is the sequel to the highest grossing film of all time, a film rewatched so many times, a film in everyones blu-ray collection. Despite what reddit thinks, this movie is a 4 quadrant film that many many people loved. We get a distorted view online thanks to the 18-40yo male nerd skew, people loved and remembered the first. There is no way in my mind this doesn't convert into strong opening weekend.

 

In fact heres something, the online nerd crew 18-40yo is the abosolute WORST demographic for the film, as they feel hurt when they're made to feel. A film about the exeperience and being made to feel things? Horrible, garbage, give me action hero being 'cool' please.

 

The legs will be great, easy 1 billie off the back of the word of mouth power from so many people seeing it on the first weekend. THe film will stand on its own 2 feet and for that reason, will be the least frontloaded >$200m opening ever, by far.

 

 

Bare in mind, we're always looking at the patterns and trends of box office in terms of the box office gross. That's why I prefer to work back from this $1.1-$1.5b. We're going to have massive IMAX and 3D sales... so whats this like 90m admission?

Edited May 21, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Elessar]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Why over $200m opening weekend, well the first Avatar in my opinion makes $100m without the snow storm. 

 

Nah, buddy, difference would have been a couple million at best.

 

Anyway, i would be VERY surprised if any of the sequels would out-admission the original due to market conditions and some of the novelty just being gone. I think you should manage your expectations or you'll end up setting yourself up for disappointment.

[IronJimbo]

7 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

Nah, buddy, difference would have been a couple million at best.

 

Anyway, i would be VERY surprised if any of the sequels would out-admission the original due to market conditions and some of the novelty just being gone. I think you should manage your expectations or you'll end up setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

i'm just writing what i think it will make, feels like you're underballing so you can't get hurt?

 

SPIDERMAN MADE $800M DOM, MARKET IS FINE

 

[Elessar]

Just now, IronJimbo said:

 

i'm just writing what i think it will make, feels like you're underballing so you can't get hurt?

 

SPIDERMAN MADE $800M DOM, MARKET IS FINE

 

 

In what world is saying it won't have more admissions than the original underballing? Mate, curb your enthusiasm just a little.

 

Yeah, Spiderman did a lot but it didn't need to sell as many tickets as Avatar to do that, not nearly as many in fact, maybe around 20m less. And anyway, Spiderman is next to Batman the single most popular superhero in the USA and they had not one but three of him lol. Remember, The Dark Knight sold maybe only slightly less tickets than Avatar around the same time so there's precedent for comic book films matching Avatar.

[IronJimbo]

30 minutes ago, Elessar said:

In what world is saying it won't have more admissions than the original underballing? Mate, curb your enthusiasm just a little.

 

Yeah, Spiderman did a lot but it didn't need to sell as many tickets as Avatar to do that, not nearly as many in fact, maybe around 20m less. And anyway, Spiderman is next to Batman the single most popular superhero in the USA and they had not one but three of him lol. Remember, The Dark Knight sold maybe only slightly less tickets than Avatar around the same time so there's precedent for comic book films matching Avatar.

 

repeating myself

Quote

"Bare in mind, we're always looking at the patterns and trends of box office in terms of box office gross. That's why I prefer to work back from this $1.1-$1.5b. We're going to have massive IMAX and 3D sales... so whats this like 90m admission? "

i was asking a question, not stating a number of admissions i think its going to get.

 

It terms of you underballing, thats not you saying Avatar 2 less admissions than Avatar 1, thats fully possible. Just feels like you always wanted to go super safe.

I do not know if you've been noticing, because its been happening gradually. Everyone predictions over the years are getting closer and closer to mine.

 

Everyone calling me a nutcase for saying 3 billies, now most people mess with as atleast a possbilitity. Imagine if Covid never happened, $3b would look even closer to a lock.

 

 

 

 

[IronJimbo]

I think everyone forgets how much better Avatar and Titanic were than other blockbusters. How bonkers is it Titanic won best picture and Avatar was pretty much 2nd place (it won the gloden globe but not the Oscar).

 

I've got every reason to believe A2 will continue the trend. I've got feeling its going to be better received than Avatar

[Deep Wang]

3 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

WIth that in mind, I believe the opening weekend is going to be comfortably over $200m and I'm expecting the highest grossing second weekend of all time. The most rewatchable film in cinema in over 13 years

 

Lmao I'll take this bet.

[IronJimbo]

5 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Lmao I'll take this bet.

uhmm my memory isnt so good and i say a lot of stuff...

 

how would we remember this?

 

$149m for The Force Awakens is the record

 

Oh it goes without saying.

Also the 3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th,8th weekends too

Edited May 21, 2022 by IronJimbo

[Deep Wang]

6 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

uhmm my memory isnt so good and i say a lot of stuff...

 

how would we remember this?

 

$149m for The Force Awakens is the record

 

Oh it goes without saying.

Also the 3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th,8th weekends too

 

I don't know if we are still allowed to bet anyway, lol.  You either forgot about Christmas Eve or genuinely think Avatar 2 is this magical thing that can beat that, but it can't.  Sorry.

[IronJimbo]

2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I don't know if we are still allowed to bet anyway, lol.  You either forgot about Christmas Eve or genuinely think Avatar 2 is this magical thing that can beat that, but it can't.  Sorry.

oh you wanted to bet with money. Sorry I can't support gambling it ruins too many lives.

 

You are correct, Avatar 2 is a magical thing.

 

I'm just seeing now though that Christmas Eve is on Avatar 2's second weekend Saturday.. that's not good for its second weekend gross. The Force Awakens got a smaller Friday because of it though.

 

Something else interesting is the world cup final which is taking place on Avatar 2's opening weekend. There's no way USA makes it past quarters anyway but still people will be watching it on Sunday

[Deep Wang]

39 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm just seeing now though that Christmas Eve is on Avatar 2's second weekend Saturday.. that's not good for its second weekend gross. The Force Awakens got a smaller Friday because of it though.

 

Huh?  Both Avatar and TFA had the same release calendar - Christmas Day on second Friday.  This is seen as the optimal release as Christmas Eve deflates Thursday, a weekday, and then Friday is Christmas Day and you are left with a powerhouse 3 day weekend.

 

Monday will be a holiday, so it will make it up, but the actual weekend numbers will be deflated 100% guaranteed.  No Jim magic here.

[Brainbug]

The World Cup final will definetly negatively impact the OW in Europe, Latin America and some Asian and African countrys. No matter how good or anticipated a movie is, a World Cup final will always be bigger. Domestically, it will be a bit of a smaller impact i believe.

[IronJimbo]

6 minutes ago, Brainbug the Dinosaur said:

The World Cup final will definetly negatively impact the OW in Europe, Latin America and some Asian and African countrys. No matter how good or anticipated a movie is, a World Cup final will always be bigger. Domestically, it will be a bit of a smaller impact i believe.

yeah completely agreed, I know I'll be watching the world cup on sunday (i will have already watched a2 twice by then anyway)

 

19 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Huh?  Both Avatar and TFA had the same release calendar - Christmas Day on second Friday.  This is seen as the optimal release as Christmas Eve deflates Thursday, a weekday, and then Friday is Christmas Day and you are left with a powerhouse 3 day weekend.

 

Monday will be a holiday, so it will make it up, but the actual weekend numbers will be deflated 100% guaranteed.  No Jim magic here.

 

I'm pretty sure they dont! Christmas Eve is saturday this december.

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

I'm pretty sure they dont! Christmas Eve is saturday this december.

 

Pretty sure they don't what?  

 

I know Christmas Eve is Saturday, I just told you that!

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Pretty sure they don't what?  

 

I know Christmas Eve is Saturday, I just told you that!

was hard to follow, had to cross-examine the post to understand it. I thought you meant A2 and TFA had the same release date. You also never said Christmas Eve was a Sat, you said monday was holiday

 

regardless....

 

A2 the biggest second Monday of all time??

 

[Lothar]

20 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

was hard to follow, had to cross-examine the post to understand it. I thought you meant A2 and TFA had the same release date. You also never said Christmas Eve was a Sat, you said monday was holiday

 

regardless....

 

A2 the biggest second Monday of all time??

 

Without a doubt

[TomCruiseTop]

On 5/20/2022 at 7:11 PM, MessiahXXR said:

FWIW I expect it to be closer to $500M than $1B.

Fancy another bet?