Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Someone will post it on the discord if they haven't already. 

I have little interest in being groomed so I dont use discord

mind posting it here when its uploaded?

Edited June 9, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[TomCruiseTop]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I have little interest in getting groomed so I dont use discord

mind posting it here when its uploaded?

Deuce most likely will.

[ImNotExcited]

On 6/7/2022 at 4:00 PM, tenken said:

There will be an avatar story on the June 9th issue of empire magazine.

 

https://www.empireonline.com/movies/news/avatar-2-the-way-of-water-aquatic-creatures-include-tulkuns-skimwings-ilu-exclusive/

 

As far as I can tell the info about the sea creatures is the full extent of the coverage in the new magazine.

[TomCruiseTop]

CPI today of 8.6% (HEAVILY MANIPULATED) that's 14.03% inflation in the last 2 years with worse to come. The likely real rate of compound inflation is over 25%. We eating good box office fans. 

[Sheldon Cr]

Evening all. Any Predicts for the OD and OW?

 

Im thinking James Camerons biggest 270M 3day? Can we get above 300mil in DEC?

 

"  One thing I know for sure is... This Family is our Fortress!"

 

-Kal-El of Bom (2009--We sent them a message--This is our Land Pandorians!!-- We will do it again!)

Edited June 12, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[Sheldon Cr]

On 6/5/2022 at 8:22 PM, IceFire9yt said:

I actually did count the first Thor Love and Thunder trailer for all trailers on Youtube over 100k views, its at 117M.

What is Avatar 2s biggest teaser count now Ice Fire? 🙂

[CloneWars]

You know, I am actually starting to turn around on this. I felt initially interest wasn't there for this, but now I am feeling a $150-$180M OW. Not sure what legs look like, but with Christmas, you never know.

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, CloneWars said:

You know, I am actually starting to turn around on this. I felt initially interest wasn't there for this, but now I am feeling a $150-$180M OW. Not sure what legs look like, but with Christmas, you never know.

 

The first movie in 2009 got an equivelent of a $150m OW because of 3 factors. It made $77m btw

 

1. snowstorm across entire east coast

2. December was a smaller month for box office back then

3. ticket price inflation

 

Yes 2 (and 1) is intangable but realise Avatar's $77m was actually not bad at all back then, and was the 200k less than the highest grossing decemember opening of all time.

 

After the first movie made became the highest grossing movie of all time. Massive Blu-Ray sales. Most watched on Disney+ for a while. We're going to see a giant marketing push as over a billion dollars has been commited to the franchise, they need the first to do well. The teaser trailer has done great in views, the actually trailer will do better.

 

I don't see a way this makes less than $200m opening weekend.

 

[Noctis]

Can't see this doing less than $200m OW. It should beat DS2's OW for sure. 

[Liiviig 1998]

Think poeple are really underestimating this especially overseas.

Of course will account for it probably not releasing in china and  russia . I think this would have taken down EG OS OW.

 

On the domestic side ,Have it at 700M+ off a 205-225m OW.

 

Thinking 500-550m OS OW  minus china and russia.

 

Jpn -125M+

SK - 100M+

Chn if it happens - 500M+

Ind - 40M+

Indo -25M+

Aus - 60M+

Arg - 18M+

Bra - 60M

Mex -70M

UK.  - 120M+

Fra.  -85-90M

Ger  - 80M+

ITA -50M+

Esp- 50M+

Rest - 450M+

 

OS +china - 1.8bn+

Minus china - 1.2-1.25b+

WW + china -2.5bn+ 

Minus china - 1.9-2bn

 

These are conservative.

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by Liiviig 1998

[interiorgatordecorator]

we saw what happenned with TGM this weekened, wont avatar 2 also lose PLF's (specially imax) when Shazam 2 and Puss release 5 days later?

 

I assume itll get them back pretty quickly, but wont that greatly hurt its 2nd weekend?

[Deep Wang]

51 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

we saw what happenned with TGM this weekened, wont avatar 2 also lose PLF's (specially imax) when Shazam 2 and Puss release 5 days later?

 

I assume itll get them back pretty quickly, but wont that greatly hurt its 2nd weekend?

 

The original had it locked for 3 full-ass months and while the times have changed since then, and I don't know when the contracts will be settled, but I know both Disney and IMAX want Avatar 2 in every IMAX for as long as possible.

 

I would be very surprised if Avatar loses PLF's to be honest, but I'm far from the most knowledgeable on the subject. 

[Brainbug]

58 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

we saw what happenned with TGM this weekened, wont avatar 2 also lose PLF's (specially imax) when Shazam 2 and Puss release 5 days later?

 

I assume itll get them back pretty quickly, but wont that greatly hurt its 2nd weekend?

 

Its 2nd weekend will be hurt anyway by Christmas Eve. Will probably cause a lot of meltdowns here among certain people despite everyone knowing that Christmas Eve is a box office killer.

 

Concerning PLFs, i think we cant say yet how the situation will be in December/January. I would imagine theaters wanting to have Avatar 2 as long as possible on those formats though.

[titanic2187]

Disney + Avatar + James Cameron versus WB + Shazam + ???

 

The former surely have leverage over the latter for every premium screen from IMAX to PLF

 

 

Edited June 12, 2022 by titanic2187

[XXR vs XXR]

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

we saw what happenned with TGM this weekened, wont avatar 2 also lose PLF's (specially imax) when Shazam 2 and Puss release 5 days later?

 

I assume itll get them back pretty quickly, but wont that greatly hurt its 2nd weekend?

 

6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The original had it locked for 3 full-ass months and while the times have changed since then, and I don't know when the contracts will be settled, but I know both Disney and IMAX want Avatar 2 in every IMAX for as long as possible.

 

I would be very surprised if Avatar loses PLF's to be honest, but I'm far from the most knowledgeable on the subject. 

 

I would be stunned if Disney didn't secure PLF for several weekends. Unlike Shazam and Puss, A2 has been locked into place for over a year. 

[JustLurking]

Yeah, sucks for shazam and puss but I would be absolutely shocked if A2 loses PLFs on 2nd weekend.

[Taruseth]

11 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

 

The first movie in 2009 got an equivelent of a $150m OW because of 3 factors. It made $77m btw

 

1. snowstorm across entire east coast

2. December was a smaller month for box office back then

3. ticket price inflation

 

Yes 2 (and 1) is intangable but realise Avatar's $77m was actually not bad at all back then, and was the 200k less than the highest grossing decemember opening of all time.

 

After the first movie made became the highest grossing movie of all time. Massive Blu-Ray sales. Most watched on Disney+ for a while. We're going to see a giant marketing push as over a billion dollars has been commited to the franchise, they need the first to do well. The teaser trailer has done great in views, the actually trailer will do better.

 

I don't see a way this makes less than $200m opening weekend.

 

Wasn't it also the biggest or second biggest OWend for an original movie.

 

77m wasn't bad.

 

I know that I am in on the TLJ club, but those are often me being way more optimistic.

 

Realistically I'd say:

Fan rush increases OWend by 50% ->115.5

On top of that there is ticket price increases and premium formats 50% -> 175m (thinking that is more likely).

Could imagine it going something like this (based on Rouge one (with Avatar bonus):

Pre: 20m

Fri: 50m

Sat: 55m

Sun:45m (170m)

Mon: 20m

Tue: 20m

Wed: 18m

Thu: 22m (250m)

 

Fri: 30m

Sat: 20m (Christma's Eve)

Sun: 35m (85m) (-50 %)

Mon: 45m (highest Monday ever))

Tue: 35

Wed: 30

Thu: 25 (220m) (-12 %)

 

Fri: 28m

Sat: 22m (New Year's eve)

Sun: 30m (80m) (-6 % and -53% of OWend)

Mon: 30m

Tue: 15m

Wed: 10m

Thu: 10m (145m)

Would be at 615m at this point.

Would be the lowest OWend - 3rd Wend drop ever for a 100+m opener

Could get to 850m with this.

 

Taking a theoretical 225m OWend:

Pre: 30m

Fri: 60m

Sat: 75m

Sun:60m (225m)

Mon: 30m

Tue: 30m

Wed: 25m

Thu: 30m (340m)

 

Fri: 37.5m

Sat: 25m (Christma's Eve)

Sun: 42.5m (105m) (-53 %)

Mon: 50m (highest Monday ever))

Tue: 39

Wed: 33

Thu: 28 (255m) (-25 %)

 

Fri: 32m

Sat: 24m (New Year's eve)

Sun: 34m (90m) (-14 % and -60% of OWend)

Mon: 32m

Tue: 17m

Wed: 11m

Thu: 10m (160m)

Would be at 755m at this point. (after three weeks TFA was at 770m)

 

I'd say this would mean a total of up to 950m (so barely above TFA with (a bit) better late legs than TFA had)

 

The likeliest record to be broken is the Monday gross (needs to beat Black Panthers first Monday 40.2m necessary) and that with it's second Monday.

I'd also say with good reviews there is a chance at 3rd week, only needs 119m for that. 3rd weekend will be harder due to New Year's Eve.

4th Weekend should be possible too (needs to be above 50.31m for that to beat Avatar's record). After that it will get way harder, don't think it will hold like Avatar did.

Records that won't be broken:

OWend (Endgame with 357.1m

OWeek (Endgame with 473.9m)

2nd Wend (TFA with 149.2m)

Really hard will be:

2nd Week (TFA with 261.1m)

 

 

1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

we saw what happenned with TGM this weekened, wont avatar 2 also lose PLF's (specially imax) when Shazam 2 and Puss release 5 days later?

 

I assume itll get them back pretty quickly, but wont that greatly hurt its 2nd weekend?

Dropping those for the other two releases honestly sounds stupid. And James Cameron won't let that happen and Disney will personally force every single theatre to keep avatar and honestly JC will have made this for those screens, the others aren't.

 

2nd weekend will also be hurt by Christmas Eve (which I initially - a couple hours ago - had forgotten).

Edited June 12, 2022 by Taruseth

[Deep Wang]

8 minutes ago, ZurgXXR said:

 

 

I would be stunned if Disney didn't secure PLF for several weekends. Unlike Shazam and Puss, A2 has been locked into place for over a year. 

 

Oh, for sure.  Exhibitors know that Avatar 2 will get them far more in PLFs than Shazam or Puss(kids movies aren't exactly PLF bosses as it is, right?).  Unfortunately for WB, it's in both Disney's and every exhibitor's best interest to keep A2 in every PLF possible.  

[Taruseth]

9 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Think poeple are really underestimating this especially overseas.

Of course will account for it probably not releasing in china and  russia . I think this would have taken down EG OS OW.

 

On the domestic side ,Have it at 700M+ off a 205-225m OW.

 

Thinking 500-550m OS OW  minus china and russia.

 

Jpn -125M+

SK - 100M+

Chn if it happens - 500M+

Ind - 40M+

Indo -25M+

Aus - 60M+

Arg - 18M+

Bra - 60M

Mex -70M

UK.  - 120M+

Fra.  -85-90M

Ger  - 80M+

ITA -50M+

Esp- 50M+

Rest - 450M+

 

OS +china - 1.8bn+

Minus china - 1.2-1.25b+

WW + china -2.5bn+ 

Minus china - 1.9-2bn

 

These are conservative.

 

Europe is greatly hurt by shit ER - (Avatar had like 1€ ~$1.35-1.40 now it's 1€ ~$1.05).

So in local currency Avatar could drop 30 % and in $ it would drop 45 %. Fearing this will happen in Germany, France etc.

 

For now I agree with 80m though (would be €75m so probably 6m admissions)

(Hoping for the ER to relax in the second half and get back to around 1€ ~$1.2 but with the ongoing energy problems and the war etc. that won't happen).

[filmlover]

Avatar 2 won't lose IMAX/PLF screens in its second weekend. Matrix 4 was forced to share IMAX showings with Spider-Man at some locations when it opened (a number of IMAX theaters didn't even get it at all) and a majority of those screens ended up dropping it completely a week later after it flopped to give Spider-Man the full screen back. Given that this is going to be the event movie for Christmas this year by a not-even-close margin (Shazam! and Puss in Boots 2 will have to exist as counterprogramming options) and Cameron/Disney's pull, it seems reasonable to assume this is locked to play in premium formats throughout the holidays at a minimum.