Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[IronJimbo]

4 minutes ago, Dingdong said:

This is gonna challenge Endgame and Force Awakens in domestic BO I think, Cameron just delivers with quality

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by IronJimbo

[cannastop]

I thought HFR was something that already failed with the hobbit

[IronJimbo]

Just now, cannastop said:

I thought HFR was something that already failed with the hobbit

this is dynamic HFR, only certain shots which it looks good in will use it. Rest will be in 24fps

[TheDude391]

21 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

this is dynamic HFR, only certain shots which it looks good in will use it. Rest will be in 24fps

Best of both worlds, in Gemini Man all the HFR action was incredible but the regular talking scenes made it look weird. 

[Sheldon Cr]

On 7/11/2022 at 6:41 PM, TheDude391 said:

Best of both worlds, in Gemini Man all the HFR action was incredible but the regular talking scenes made it look weird. 

Agreed and good evening my friends.

 I think Hfr does get weird when it's overused. So I hope JC uses it for just the amazing moments where it will shine.. 

I'm thinking avatar 2 may.truly challenge force awakens domestic..This thing has everyone's attention if it delivers anything close or even better than the avatar 3d experience.  Repeat business will happen on 7x to 10 x scale. And since this has that jaw dropping potential that only Cameron epics can hamper. Oh my!

220-270m ow with a 6x + multiplier will make for a serious domestic new threshold reached Jimbo and fellow pandora and Cameron fans. Gracious! We've  seen the best runs of all time aka. Jurassic Park, Sws FA, Titan,  Avatar, End game etc.

 

Does the Cameron juggernaut 2022 have any earthly mate in box office  potential? 

 

Edited July 13, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Just updating

[dudalb]

We are going to be up to 500 Million OW before the Jimbo fans are through.

Edited July 13, 2022 by dudalb

[Sheldon Cr]

5 minutes ago, dudalb said:

We are going to be up to 500 Million OW before the Jimbo fans are through.

No but a 220-300+ mil ow certainly is possible. But only Cameron films have the potential to open huge like that and still get a 6x-7x multiplier in this era.

Hence why everyone including Disney are talking about it potential domestic and.Os run.🤔

[XXR vs XXR]

Doing some math, I think the upper limit on ATWOW domestic potential is something around $1050M USD. That would involve matching the same number of tickets sold as Avatar (estimating 75 million tickets sold) and accounting for a 20% increase in average ticket price over No Way Home (achieved through 7% inflation over December 2021 prices + largely increased 3D percentage). 

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

On 7/11/2022 at 6:17 PM, IronJimbo said:

 

Confidence rising  here as well. Especially after no where  homes run and Top Gun 2.. In Avatar 2 JC has a brand new bag.

What movie opens in Dec  when A2 Way of.the water is unleashed on the movie going world??

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

10 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

Doing some math, I think the upper limit on ATWOW domestic potential is something around $1050M USD. That would involve matching the same number of tickets sold as Avatar (estimating 75 million tickets sold) and accounting for a 20% increase in average ticket price over No Way Home (achieved through 7% inflation over December 2021 prices + largely increased 3D percentage). 

 

 

You forgot to add the long line of Cameron's fans children who want to experience why their parents keep talking about titanic, aliens, T2 and Avatar experience  on the big screen.. That's a great number but no where near to the max I think. Avatar  had a 10x multiplier. So let's say it's another  event level Cameron film that delivers 200 m ow with at least a 6x multiplier is 1.2b

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Sheldon Cr said:

You forgot to add the long line of Cameron's fans children who want to experience why their parents keep talking about titanic, aliens, T2 and Avatar experience  on the big screen.. That's a great number but no where near to the max I think. Avatar  had a 10x multiplier. So let's say it's another  event level Cameron film that delivers 200 m ow with at least a 6x multiplier is 1.2b

 

Truthfully, for ATWOW to be on Avatar's level it would need about $1400M DOM. Avatar's opening today translates to about $155M (based on rank, not inflation). Now, I expect OW to be heavier since opening weekends have been gravitating towards a larger BO% for a while now and it's a sequel so lets assume a 30% increase on OW and 30% decrease on legs. That would be basically $200-210M with a 7x multiplier. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I'm getting Hobbit vibes with this

 

I don't doubt Cameron. He's made some of the best sequels ever. And the trailer is goregous. Nice to see blockbusters with this scale of color...

 

But it just looks like Avatar. Which is fine! But I don't sense a lot of crossover potential. I still think over 500m, probably 600m dom just for curiosity but overall, I think Cameron might have gotten lost in the tech and his own niche

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Truthfully, for ATWOW to be on Avatar's level it would need about $1400M DOM. Avatar's opening today translates to about $155M (based on rank, not inflation). Now, I expect OW to be heavier since opening weekends have been gravitating towards a larger BO% for a while now and it's a sequel so lets assume a 30% increase on OW and 30% decrease on legs. That would be basically $200-210M with a 7x multiplier. 

That's what im hoping

. Avatar1 also had loyal.fans and.thanks to Avatar  day.and insane wom come out even.in crazy.snow storm affecting the entire northeast movie going public. Still opened to near 80 mill back in 2009 and then.dropped only 9-10% on weekend 2 had a 71 or 73 m.ow. And then just kept.havng insane holds even against films like Sherlock  Holmes etc.

Let's hopes that 6x-7x multiplier does happen.. stormbreaker 😎🏋‍♂️

.

[Sheldon Cr]

9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'm getting Hobbit vibes with this

 

I don't doubt Cameron. He's made some of the best sequels ever. And the trailer is goregous. Nice to see blockbusters with this scale of color...

 

But it just looks like Avatar. Which is fine! But I don't sense a lot of crossover potential. I still think over 500m, probably 600m dom just for curiosity but overall, I think Cameron might have gotten lost in the tech and his own niche

Titanic and Avatar 13 yrs between them and Cameron fans still showed up man. Very unlikely scenario as long as no wars or unforseen acts of the most high happen with nature...

 

Now Your saying A2 will only be attended on a top gun2 level?? I think you need to look at the last two Cameron film attendance again..You do know A2 is far far bigger than no where home.right domestically and everywhere else??😳

Edited July 13, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Update

[interiorgatordecorator]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I'm getting Hobbit vibes with this

 

I don't doubt Cameron. He's made some of the best sequels ever. And the trailer is goregous. Nice to see blockbusters with this scale of color...

 

But it just looks like Avatar. Which is fine! But I don't sense a lot of crossover potential. I still think over 500m, probably 600m dom just for curiosity but overall, I think Cameron might have gotten lost in the tech and his own niche

 

my but is that every comment in regards to the quality of the movie, wether it be small-time tech guy speaking in a youtube video with 500 views, amc excecutives whove seen a longer teaser or the cast themselves, seem to imply that this is something really special

even if it doesnt have an incredible opening, I believe itll have the necesarry wom to get amazing legs, and considering how they avoided using 2 in the title and how straightforward the 1st story is, I believe it should have no trouble attracting new audiences

[Sheldon Cr]

On 6/23/2022 at 2:22 PM, NCsoft said:

They'll probably not interfere with each other. 

I'd be fine with them doing a Titanic re-release every 5 years, that movie deserves to be seen again and again!

 

I highly approve this message dear NCsoft. Titanic definitely  deserves love ever 5 years. The king of bo magic and.quality. The world literally couldn't stop watching this film. Even the music charts and news channels were dominated by the words "Titanic!"💯👍

[IronJimbo]

4 hours ago, StormbreakerXXR said:

 

Truthfully, for ATWOW to be on Avatar's level it would need about $1400M DOM. Avatar's opening today translates to about $155M (based on rank, not inflation). Now, I expect OW to be heavier since opening weekends have been gravitating towards a larger BO% for a while now and it's a sequel so lets assume a 30% increase on OW and 30% decrease on legs. That would be basically $200-210M with a 7x multiplier. 

 

It's really insane how much more money can be made now, espesically in US and China. People are really forgetting this. Good post!

 

Also theres a good chance you might be underestimating the number of 3D screens that this film will be seen in, I'm expecting a resurgance.

[Agafin]

$1 = €1

 

European grosses are going to be so depressed. Avatar made about $1.1b in Europe back in 2009. Take out Russia from that number and you are left with about $990m. Adjusting that to today's exchange rates is about $700m. 

 

Inflation would need to be 40% over Avatar's already inflated 2009 prices just to match that $990m. And Russia is obviously a lost cause, but even if it were there, it's currency is even weaker comparatively speaking.

[JustLurking]

10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

$1 = €1

 

European grosses are going to be so depressed. Avatar made about $1.1b in Europe back in 2009. Take out Russia from that number and you are left with about $990m. Adjusting that to today's exchange rates is about $700m. 

 

Inflation would need to be 40% over Avatar's already inflated 2009 prices just to match that $990m. And Russia is obviously a lost cause, but even if it were there, it's currency is even weaker comparatively speaking.

Correct, might get even worse by december tbh. The Yen and the pound are in a similar spot. It's not entirely all doom and gloom though since markets like Latam, India, middle east/SEA will likely perform quite a bit better than A1 and obviously the big elephant in the room being china has enormous potential from growth (if it does release), likely enough to offset the europe losses on its own.

[Noctis]

Avatar will likely get banned in China.