Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Madhuvan]

Avatar movies always come after recession. 🤔🤔🤔

 

 

[Deuce66]

They don't state what they were going to shoot in April, live action for # 2 - 3 - 4....we don't know, at least they didn't shut down VFX work at Weta. 

Producer Jon Landau confirmed the executive team will remain in Los Angeles after canceling a flight to Wellington on Friday, with VFX work to continue.

Filming on James Cameron’s Avatar sequels in New Zealand has been halted due to the country's attempts to stop the spread of the coronavirus. 

Producer Jon Landau confirmed to the New Zealand Herald that there would be a delay to a block of filming that was due to take place in Wellington's Stone Street Studios in April.

 

Wellington-based Weta Digital will continue to work on visual effects on the films, that are reportedly budgeted at $1 billion (NZ$1.65 billion).

The long-delayed sequels to 2009's Avatar were due to be completed by the end of 2020 with work on a total of four films being done simultaneously.

 

Currently, Avatar 2, has a release date of Dec.17, 2021, with the following three sequels to be released, respectively, in December 2023, December 2025 and December 2027.

 

"We've delayed it. We had plans to come down Friday night with a group of people and start back up and we made the decision to hold off and continue working here [Los Angeles], and come down there a little bit later than we'd planned,” Landau told the Herald. 

 

"We're in the midst of a global crisis and this is not about the film industry. I think everybody needs to do now whatever we can do, as we say here, to flatten the [coronavirus] curve."

 

Landau told the Herald that he couldn’t give an answer as to when production in New Zealand would resume, but was re-assessing the production schedule "everyday, because that's how quickly things change."

 

He added it was now the production’s priority to get “as many minutes” of VFX work to Weta Digital to complete.

"We try and monitor all this and look at things and think about what is in the best interest of our crew. I call it our Avatar family. That is really paramount to us above anything," Landau said.

 

A crew member contacted by the Herald said they were waiting for confirmation of the delays. "At the moment it's still all up in the air. We'll find out in the next couple of days via email. It's not panic stations yet but I'm sure something will come through.

 

"The production is very supportive of us. We're not being laid off, it's on hold, so they're still committed to shooting it here as far as I know." 

The Avatar sequels are the latest international shoot to call a halt to production over the global spread of the virus. Yesterday, Amazon's $1 billion TV adaptation of The Lord of the Rings, also being shot in New Zealand, was put on hold. In Australia, positive tests and concerns over coronavirus has seen production stop on Baz Luhrmann’s untitled Elvis biopic and Marvel’s Shang-Chi film. Netflix's breakout fantasy series The Witcher paused its U.K. production and Bollywood put a stop to filming till the end of March. 

 

As of Tuesday, New Zealand had a total of 12 confirmed coronavirus infections. The country's government has acted aggressively to contain the outbreak. On Monday, New Zealand began requiring travelers from everywhere in the world except neighboring Pacific Island nations to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in the country. The government in Wellington unveiled a NZ$12.1 billion ($7.3 billion) support package for the New Zealand economy, with nearly half of the stimulus going to wage subsidy packages for coronavirus-impacted businesses and workers. 

 

[raulbalarezo]

 

[TomCruiseTop]

Infinite QE, let's just hope that Cinema survives... 

[Valonqar]

What will be released first: New Mutants, Chaos Walking or Avatar 2? 

[The Futurist]

11 hours ago, Valonqar said:

What will be released first: New Mutants, Chaos Walking or Avatar 2? 

Fast & Furiosa presents :

Batman vs Avengers inside Island Number 4 of Jurassic World

Edited March 24, 2020 by The Futurist

[Valonqar]

[infamous5445]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/amp/news/china-rerelease-avengers-franchise-avatar-inception-boost-reopening-cinemas-1286421

 

Avatar re-release in China.

[TomCruiseTop]

Anyone from lightstorm - please have these dubbed in Mandarin, we're gonna need it when USD loses its global reserve currency status. 

[IronJimbo]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/03/25/avengers-and-avatar-are-returning-to-china-so-endgame-could-lose-its-box-office-crown/#195703949b22

 

lol

[charlie Jatinder]

So Avatar 2 will be releasing in 2022. How likely is Summer release or will they stick to Christmas.

 

Also make me wonder, @Barnack since Avatar 2 is in production for at least (I guess 5 years)  4 years, the opportunity interest cost on the film would be huge. $300mn investment for 3 years, shall have $100mn interest cost definitely and now with most likely another delay of year (if they stick to Christmas), will add another $40mn easily or I am doing it wrong.

Edited March 26, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[TomCruiseTop]

  

12 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2020/03/25/avengers-and-avatar-are-returning-to-china-so-endgame-could-lose-its-box-office-crown/#195703949b22

 

lol

Not a true re-release unless it's the remaster that Jim commissioned. 

 

19 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So Avatar 2 will be releasing in 2022. How likely is Summer release or will they stick to Christmas.

 

Also make me wonder, @Barnack since Avatar 2 is in production for at least (I guess 5 years)  4 years, the opportunity interest cost on the film would be huge. $300mn investment for 3 years, shall have $100mn interest cost definitely and now with most likely another delay of year (if they stick to Christmas), will add another $40mn easily or I am doing it wrong.

Stick to reporting numbers CJ. You speculating on A2 shows how little you know on the subject. 

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

So Avatar 2 will be releasing in 2022. How likely is Summer release or will they stick to Christmas.

 

Also make me wonder, @Barnack since Avatar 2 is in production for at least (I guess 5 years)  4 years, the opportunity interest cost on the film would be huge. $300mn investment for 3 years, shall have $100mn interest cost definitely and now with most likely another delay of year (if they stick to Christmas), will add another $40mn easily or I am doing it wrong.

 

Usually ROI do take into account how long between all the revenue stream happen and when the expense happen, you are not wrong to think about that (some company like Costco are build around the model of making the money before spending it, usually 100% of Costco profit occur before they spend money).

 

Company will tend to have an expected annual return that project will want to beat that will be used to actualize every future revenue stream to when the money is spent ($100 next year is worst $90.9 now, $100 in 2 year is worth $82.6 now and so on)

 

Interest cost is different than opportunity cost, tv/movie project can often be made on a credit line (with an insurance) depending  on who own the negative and so on, once the movie is done and respect contract obligation the studio pay for it:

 

From Wikipedia:

Negative pickup deal[edit]

A negative pickup deal is a contract entered into by an independent producer and a movie studio wherein the studio agrees to purchase the movie from the producer at a given date and for a fixed sum. Until then, the financing is up to the producer, who must pay any additional costs if the film goes over-budget.

Generally, a producer will have a bank/lender lend against the value of the negative pickup contract as a way to shore up their financing package of the film. This is commonly referred to as "factoring paper". Most major North American studio and network contracts (incl. basic cable) are collateralized/factored by the bank at 100% of the contract value, and the lender just takes a basic origination/setup fee.

 

When that model is use, there is interest cost accumulating but not necessarily much spent out of pocket before the pick-up date. Not sure if they worked like that, but it was for a long time common to do it like that (could create a number company that will own the movie, take the loan and so on).

 

It seem to still be the model:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/schuylermoore/2019/05/10/film-financing-with-loans/#9963c5300d2e

For large film companies (e.g. studios and VOD companies), obtaining loans is relatively easy; they can either obtain large lines of credit, or they can use negative pick-ups. Under this latter structure, the bank loans to a special-purpose entity formed to produce the film, and the film company commits to pay the cost of the film on delivery, repaying the bank.

 

A giant studio like Disney tend to have good interest rate in the current environment, I would imagine under 5%

 

 

So I am really not sure how to look at it, either they pay interest all that time (but with current Disney bond/credit line a low amount) or they did spend money and are not paying interest on the project and the opportunity cost, but maybe not both at the same time.

 

 

 

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Barnack

[TomCruiseTop]

@Sheldon Cr  I'd like to update my prediction to $6B WW and $4B floor please Kal. 

 

This is also with the proviso that we're still measuring worldwide gross in USD when Avatar 2 comes out. 

[marveldcfox]

21 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

@Sheldon Cr  I'd like to update my prediction to $6B WW and $4B floor please Kal. 

 

This is also with the proviso that we're still measuring worldwide gross in USD when Avatar 2 comes out. 

China has closed all theatres again. 

[Deuce66]

Here's hoping that whatever live shooting was left to be completed was for III - IV or V. It will be interesting to see how we all emerge from this and the level of economic re-structuring that will take place. 

[TomCruiseTop]

17 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

Here's hoping that whatever live shooting was left to be completed was for III - IV or V. It will be interesting to see how we all emerge from this and the level of economic re-structuring that will take place. 

At minimum and what I sort of hope is great depression tier, and it literally sets us up for A2 making BILLIONS. 

 

Worst case - bye bye to USD. 

 

Also - SQQQ calls, because 10m and no collapse is market manipulation. This entire thing is a joke right now. 

[TomCruiseTop]

One for @IronJimbo 

[TomCruiseTop]

“Today’s US jobless claims figure has a strong claim to being quite literally the worst single economic data release of all time, in terms of its significance for both the US economy and global markets."* - Head of some Monex platform

 

*Yet quite possibly excellent news for those that have predicted a perfect economic storm for the release of the Avatar sequels. - JCS

Edited April 2, 2020 by JamesCameronScholar

[IronJimbo]

22 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

“Today’s US jobless claims figure has a strong claim to being quite literally the worst single economic data release of all time, in terms of its significance for both the US economy and global markets."* - Head of some Monex platform

 

*Yet quite possibly excellent news for those that have predicted a perfect economic storm for the release of the Avatar sequels. - JCS

The prophet