Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[cdsacken]

None

[doublejack]

31 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

None

It's not none. The odds may be slim, but they are greater than zero. Disney's stock price surged after their announcement emphasizing streaming. Also, Disney did not blame COVID, only saying that it accelerated a process already in motion. How far is Disney going to go down this rabbit hole? If they become pot committed then no chips will be spared. Avatar 2 is just a very big chip.

 

Also, Avatar 2's current release date is over 2 years out. That's a lot of time for the situation to change. It is possible the feedback loop of no new releases and theaters closing results in many theaters permanently shuttering. Disney may not have a choice to make. We're in uncharted territory. A century ago, the last time we had a comparable pandemic, movie theaters were a niche in a nascent industry. We've never experienced anything like this during the modern cinema era.

 

So, maybe Disney converts Avatar 2 into a D+ subscriber driver and hopes to recoup investment by marketing the hell out of merchandise, something Fox did not do adequately for the original. If this franchise is going to make a mark on society it will have to transcend film. This is something Disney specializes in, and I'm sure it is why they considered Avatar the big score in the acquisition. They hope it becomes a cultural phenomena like Harry Potter and Star Wars. If you look at something like Star Wars, the film revenue is just a small fraction of the total revenue the franchise generates.

 

Can Disney make this work without a theatrical release? Will they even try it? We've got a ton of time to chew on it.

[Rorschach]

1 hour ago, doublejack said:

With Disney's reorg and new emphasis, what are the odds that this debuts on D+?

Zero. Unless for some reason this pandemic is still occurring by the time we get to 2022 and things are looking incredibly dire, I think it'll only end up premiering on there as a last resort situation. Cameron will probably fight tooth and nail to make sure this gets released in theaters.

[hw64]

1 hour ago, doublejack said:

With Disney's reorg and new emphasis, what are the odds that this debuts on D+?

Zero. While we don't know the full details of the reorganization, common sense and the information that has been provided both suggest that the extent of the shift towards streaming is nowhere near that which would lead to Avatar 2 being sent to Disney+ rather than theaters.

 

The reorganization is concerning for sure, but the extent of the shift is being heavily overstated by some: Disney are far, far from abandoning theatrical distribution entirely, and the only way a movie like Avatar 2 would end up on Disney+ is if Disney were doing just that (and even then I think Cameron would have something to say about it).

[cdsacken]

Avatar 2 will be the highest grossing movie in the world that year. Not gonna happen. 

 

Disney would take a massive loss

[WittyUsername]

I don’t know what the state of theaters will be by 2022, but I‘m certain that Cameron would not want it to go directly to streaming. 

[Deuce66]

All I know is that I want to see this on the best and biggest screen possible, a TV isn't going to cut it for a first or second viewing. 

 

26 months to opening

 

 

[Deuce66]

Avatar : The Next Shadow out Jan 6/2021 

 

Here we go the official start of the post Avatar story. 

 

 

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/avatar-sequel-comic-in-the-works-for-2021

 

 

Dark Horse's four-issue 'The Next Shadow' will be the first official continuation of James Cameron's 2009 movie.

 

Fans waiting for the next installment of James Cameron’s Avatar will be able to return to Pandora earlier than expected, with Dark Horse Comics announcing Avatar: The Next Shadow, a four-issue comic book series set after the 2009 movie and continuing Jake Sully’s story.

The Next Shadow takes place in the immediate aftermath of the original movie, as Sully struggles to keep the Omaticaya clan together in the wake of his arrival — and deal with a plot to take him out of the Na’vi entirely. It is written by Jeremy Barlow (AVP: Thicker Than Blood, Star Wars: Darth Maul — Son of Dathomir) with art from Josh Hood (We Can Never Go Home), with covers from Gui Balbi (Alien: The Original Screenplay).

 

The Next Shadow will be Dark Horse’s third Avatar project, following a 2017 release Avatar: Brothers, and 2019’s mini-series Avatar: Tsu’tey’s Path. However, and notably, The Next Shadow will be the publisher’s first Avatarproject set after the events of the first movie — and, as such, the first official Avatar narrative to carry the story beyond the events of Cameron’s 2009 original.

 

The as-yet officially untitled Avatar 2, the first in a series of cinematic sequels, is currently in post-production with a release date of December 2022.

 

Avatar: The Next Shadow will debut in comic book stores and digitally Jan. 6, 2021.

 

[TomCruiseTop]

My favorite graph to parade around at the moment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2 

 

As such I am revising my prediction to 34B¥ minimum.  

[dudalb]

On 10/13/2020 at 10:10 AM, WittyUsername said:

I don’t know what the state of theaters will be by 2022, but I‘m certain that Cameron would not want it to go directly to streaming. 

I think judging what will heppen with theaters long term is silly until we see what happens when the Corona Virus is brought under control. Now is not a good time to make judgements on that.

[TomCruiseTop]

Also hoping DIS buys out AMC so that Jim's investment in Cam tech isn't blown away (again). 

 

 

[Macleod]

3 hours ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Also hoping DIS buys out AMC so that Jim's investment in Cam tech isn't blown away (again). 

 

 

I'd say that in itself is more likely that A2 ever going direct-to-Disney+. 

 

I totally believe that Disney would be willing to buy out one of the chains (whether they re-brand it or not) simply to have a place for the Avatar films, especially if indeed things don't get back to anything approaching normal in terms of the theatrical circuit by 2022.  

 

Avatar IS and will be a priority.  Trust me.  

 

...But I'm still just not quite sure when we'll see it...  😉 

[TomCruiseTop]

17 hours ago, Macleod said:

...But I'm still just not quite sure when we'll see it...  😉 

It has to be 2022 now... I'm not even certain I'll live to see A5 at this rate. 

[WittyUsername]

This thing finished filming, hasn’t it? I don’t see why it wouldn’t be ready by 2022. 

[Macleod]

9 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

This thing finished filming, hasn’t it? I don’t see why it wouldn’t be ready by 2022. 

Well...

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/13/2020 at 7:53 PM, doublejack said:

With Disney's reorg and new emphasis, what are the odds that this debuts on D+?

-∞%

 

Avatar will earn Disney atleast $900 million in theatrical share, not sure about Licensing to OTT it would have got, but safe to assume $1.5Bn revenue need to come for them to think for releasing on D+.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2020 by charlie Jatinder

[Deuce66]

20 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

This thing finished filming, hasn’t it? I don’t see why it wouldn’t be ready by 2022. 

Performance capture and live is completed for A2 according to Cameron, A3 performance capture is done and they still have some live stuff to complete (5% maybe less at this point). It's safe to say that the balance of the work is now in WETA's pipeline for completion who knows how far along they are in terms of % completed, they still need to edit and score these movies. I agree that there's no excuse for them to not have II ready to go for Dec 2022. 

 

 

July 31,

Jim gathered the crew to show them three scenes with near finished visual effects from Weta Digital. Everyone was excited and pumped up to get back to work. Look forward to when we are able to share with you. 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

15 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

Performance capture and live is completed for A2 according to Cameron, A3 performance capture is done and they still have some live stuff to complete (5% maybe less at this point). It's safe to say that the balance of the work is now in WETA's pipeline for completion who knows how far along they are in terms of % completed, they still need to edit and score these movies. I agree that there's no excuse for them to not have II ready to go for Dec 2022. 

 

 

July 31,

Jim gathered the crew to show them three scenes with near finished visual effects from Weta Digital. Everyone was excited and pumped up to get back to work. Look forward to when we are able to share with you. 

 

Would love to know what that screen is. 

[Deuce66]

Here's the latest. 

 

 

 

[TomCruiseTop]

23 hours ago, Deuce66 said:

Here's the latest. 

 

 

 

Really not inspired by these BTS photos if I'm honest, most seem very drab.