Toy Story 4 | June 20, 2019 | 6th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

[AniNate]

I may be wrong. Sure was with Incredibles. But I also feel like this has more negative baggage attached to it than I2. No idea how it would manifest at the box office, but I just don't see people being absolutely psyched for it in the same way.

[Blankments]

38 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Stop picking on a child.  Bonnie simply isn't good with names, OK. 

 

 

two of the bigger new characters in TS3 were a doll named Dolly and a baby doll named Big Baby; it's not like this is anything new lmao

[MovieMan89]

The biggest threat to the box office for this remains that batshit crazy summer schedule next year. We've never seen anything like it, especially for family demos. So how exactly everything will coexist remains to be seen.

[AniNate]

It always looks batshit crazy before the studios actually have to address it. Something's going to blink

[MovieMan89]

4 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

It always looks batshit crazy before the studios actually have to address it. Something's going to blink

I wish Disney would just cave on Episode IX and push it to 2020. Then Aladdin moves to TLK's spot and TLK moves to IX's and suddenly all kinds of movies on the schedule have some room to breathe. And I still think making people wait longer for IX is a brilliant strategy to build back some of the hype for SW.

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

It always looks batshit crazy before the studios actually have to address it. Something's going to blink

In years past, I feel like studios blinked and would move their movies but in 2019 where are they moving it to? Like the whole summer is jam packed. There isn't any breathing room for anything. Before you could see a studio move from June to August or something like that but in 2019, there isnt a free month in the summer. Hell the whole year is fucking insane. 

[jedijake]

The more teasers and trailers that come out, the less likely those movies will move out of the way.

 

The craziest thing isn't even the amount of films but the amount of films from ONE studio!!!

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

In years past, I feel like studios blinked and would move their movies but in 2019 where are they moving it to? Like the whole summer is jam packed. There isn't any breathing room for anything. Before you could see a studio move from June to August or something like that but in 2019, there isnt a free month in the summer. Hell the whole year is fucking insane. 

That's why my idea of IX moving back a full year is perfect. Pikachu moves to Aladdin's spot giving Avengers mania proper time to subside. Then Pikachu has two weeks before SLOP 2, which has 2 weeks before TS4, which now only deals with Aladdin in July opposed to TLK. Aladdin gets breathing room opposed to being smothered under the weight of Avengers, Pikachu, SLOP, and TS4 in like a month span and now TLK gets the coveted holiday legs. IX gets an extra year for the GA to actually get hungry for SW again after the TLJ/Solo over-saturation momentum halter. Literally everything wins.

[Stewart]

15 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

The biggest threat to the box office for this remains that batshit crazy summer schedule next year. We've never seen anything like it, especially for family demos. So how exactly everything will coexist remains to be seen.

Thinking the same thing.

 

However, we've seen in a 6-week span (including next week) during a usually half-dead box office period several big-enough films:

• Venom - 80 OW
• ASIB - 43 OW
• Hallow - 76 OW
• BoRhap - 51 OW
• Grinch - 67 OW
• Beasts 2 - 60+ OW

For a 6-week period, that's a lot of large opening weekends... And it's not like the drops have been horrendous either, with the worst 2nd WE drop being 58.8% from Halloween, which itself is still a decent drop for horror. 

 

Overall, I think if there's movies people want to see, they can coexist just fine. Especially since more people will go to movies in the Summer. However I do think WOM / Reviews will take a bigger impact, e.g. if Aladdin gets bad reviews, then it's going to suffer, unless WOM is amazing.

 

It's likely that something will die, but I don't think that's necessarily because of the competition, but because of the reception of the film.

[jedijake]

I think the crowded field next summer will prevent movies from making $600 million (except for Avengers 4 which will probably come out the last week of April and Lion King which will continue into September). Movies will be between $200 and $400 million range where they'd normally have potential for over $500 million. Well, Aladdin and TS4 at least.

[MovieMan89]

I wonder what TS4 and I2's box offices would have been if they had swapped release dates?

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

That's why my idea of IX moving back a full year is perfect. Pikachu moves to Aladdin's spot giving Avengers mania proper time to subside. Then Pikachu has two weeks before SLOP 2, which has 2 weeks before TS4, which now only deals with Aladdin in July opposed to TLK. Aladdin gets breathing room opposed to being smothered under the weight of Avengers, Pikachu, SLOP, and TS4 in like a month span and now TLK gets the coveted holiday legs. IX gets an extra year for the GA to actually get hungry for SW again after the TLJ/Solo over-saturation momentum halter. Literally everything wins.

Despite holiday boost, I think TLK will gross more where it is. Purely because there's most of August to breath, as opposed to Christmas which is likely to be packed as usual and only 2-weeks long. Even just because people will watch it more than once if there's nothing else, but won't over xmas because there's more options on offer. Also because TLK should get much more showtimes and screens in August, as opposed to Christmas.

 

On the contrary, Avatar and TFA were both Christmas and they're #1 and #2 domestically (#1 and #3 WW)

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Despite holiday boost, I think TLK will gross more where it is. Purely because there's most of August to breath, as opposed to Christmas which is likely to be packed as usual and only 2-weeks long. Even just because people will watch it more than once if there's nothing else, but won't over xmas because there's more options on offer. Also because TLK should get much more showtimes and screens in August, as opposed to Christmas.

 

On the contrary, Avatar and TFA were both Christmas and they're #1 and #2 domestically (#1 and #3 WW)

I still think TLK takes a hit from the way the schedule currently is. That demo is going to be so over-served by that point that I see no way TLK doesn't take some kind of hit from it. It's the opposite of the family drought boost that I2 received. I'd also argue holiday is the easier season for family fare to co-exist. Legs will always be great that time of year and now we've firmly established huge OWs over the holiday are more than possible too.

Edited November 13, 2018 by MovieMan89

[Reddroast]

I feel the key and peele teaser should have been released first. It would have worked better against detective pikachu

[YM!]

52 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I wish Disney would just cave on Episode IX and push it to 2020. Then Aladdin moves to TLK's spot and TLK moves to IX's and suddenly all kinds of movies on the schedule have some room to breathe. And I still think making people wait longer for IX is a brilliant strategy to build back some of the hype for SW.

2019 in general. i think Disney desire to own 2019 may slightly backfire due to how jam packed the schedule is. Although I still think Lion King will easily do over $600M, I do know that family films in the summer will either live or die on the amount of 4 quadrant appeal and reviews.

 

[TwoMisfits]

Not feeling the early marketing...as a Toy Story trilogy fanatic, the 2 teasers aren't speaking to me...

 

I mean, in the last 2 days, I saw Detective Pikachu's and Toy Story 4's trailers...both movies weren't high on my list (since I don't know Pokemon and I consider the trilogy perfect for TS)...and having watched these, 1 movie has probably earned a theater ticket buy from me...and it's not Toy Story...

[jedijake]

I think the issue with the TS4 teaser comes down to this. Many people feel that there really wasn't a reason to make a 4th Toy Story. Neither teaser, in any way, shape, or form, does a thing to make anyone think that there is suddenly a reason to have a 4th TS. So we're at the same place. Until someone or something makes people say "oh now that's a great idea and is a unique approach and direction", there's nothing to really get excited about yet.

[FantasticBeasts]

Where is the hype?

Detective Pikachu won, Toy Story found dead in a ditch.

Talking toys just can't compete with talking pokemons...

[AniNate]

To paraphrase, the other studios are locked in here with Disney. They may make too many big budget films, but they have the lion's share of the bankable properties and can afford the odd backfire. They've already got a lot of stuff scheduled for 2020 as well including Avatar, two Pixar films and a WDA project (assuming it's Byron Howard's musical). If anyone suffers, it'll be whatever tries to compete with them.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Where is the hype?

Detective Pikachu won, Toy Story found dead in a ditch.

Talking toys just can't compete with talking pokemons...