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Toy Story 4 | June 20, 2019 | 6th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

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The only issue with this being a "Bonnie" trilogy is that you "dumb down" the brand and lose a ton of former fans, who don't come back when it "gets better"...

 

I mean, I look at the Cars trilogy as an example...Cars 2 went the "dumbing down" route, so that when they put out Cars 3, which (once I saw it), I was surprised was almost an equal to 1...yet, no one really went to it.  

 

For another, it's like will Muppets fans watch Muppet Babies?  I admit that with my kids growing, I don't have a 0-5 that's gonna make me wanna watch a "Forky"...it seems like I saw that in TS3 with the preschool area, where toys became bruised and battered...now they just become superfluous as the kid plays with the box vs the toy (for all parents of young kids used to Christmas).

 

I'm not saying there isn't a movie on toys you can make with that concept.  I'm saying tying it to Toy Story just seems counter-productive to me for what a Toy Story fan might want.  I don't really wanna "baby-fy"...and the kid in the last movie didn't seem so young at the end that I'd expect to go there in 4... 

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6 hours ago, jedijake said:

$205 million for Aladdin???

 

$310 million for TS4???

 

Those are crazy low numbers. Aladdin will open with at least $120 million. TS4 will pass $300 million in its 2nd or 3rd weekend.

Aladdin is far and away the one in the most danger of being cannibalized as things are, imo. It has absolutely no room to breath on either end if Pikachu is huge right before it and then SLOP and TS4 immediately follow to kill legs. Not to mention I'll stick by Ritchie being a horribly mismatched choice for the movie and what people want from Aladdin until proven otherwise. And on top of it all, there's the dreaded Disney Memorial Day curse...

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If Aladdin was released in a year where it was the only live-action re-make, I could see it being another BatB, if not at least another Jungle Book at the box office

 

edit: this isn't the Aladdin thread 😕 

Edited by DAJK
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10 hours ago, John Marston said:

 

 

even if it delivers? 

Even The Good Dinosaur and Brave got good reviews. It will get good reviews. I'm sure it will be a well made film but it's still a tacked on sequel. I think people will see that. Of course it remains to be seen whether I am correct or not. 

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15 hours ago, DAR said:

It's almost as if people are ignoring what Pixar did with the previous three films in this series.   Trust the process as they say.

Yeah, but this movie has been through significant production shake-ups, its plot has literally been replaced from scratch and it's one of the most unnecessary sequels ever made in Hollywood. Nobody asked for TS4. Nobody. And it doesn't sound like even Pixar have a clear direction where to take this, and that's probably going to be felt in the film itself (up until today I didn't know that Forky was the real plot of the movie, not the Bo Beep stuff that had been talked about for years). This only exists because TS3 made a billion dollars and Pixar wants dat sequel cash. Feels like a lot more cynicism was put into this than into either of the previous three films.

 

21 hours ago, jedijake said:

$205 million for Aladdin???

 

$310 million for TS4???

 

Those are crazy low numbers. Aladdin will open with at least $120 million. TS4 will pass $300 million in its 2nd or 3rd weekend.

Both are getting the short end of the stick in a Summer overcrowded with family competition. TS4 is a movie no one wanted and will have the family audience drained by Avengers, Pikachu, Aladdin and Pets 2, and also saving up for The Lion King (and Spider-Man). Aladdin is not getting the promotional push that BATB got and TLK will surely get and it's crammed in-between Avengers/Pikachu and Pets 2/TS4. It's far from an impossibility. I do think that the Solo comparisons aren't fully warranted because Solo was the definition of a wrong project at the wrong time, as these Disney remakes are pretty popular and Aladdin is one of their biggest animated films ever, but still, hardly does it sound like a stretch that these may underperform given the PACKED Summer they're in and the circumstances of their release.

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In 2016 from March to end of summer, the big 4 family films ZOOTP + TJB + DORY + PETS did

368.4 + 341.3 + 486.3 + 364.0 = 1560.0

 

If 4 movies could rake in that amount in 2016 then is it impossible for 5 movies to match it in 2019 over the same period (March-August)?

 

TS4, SLOP2, Pikachu, Dumbo and Aladdin can average 325 and it adds up to 1625, "only" 65 more than those 4 movies after 3 years of inflation.

Edited by a2k
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21 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

(up until today I didn't know that Forky was the real plot of the movie, not the Bo Beep stuff that had been talked about for years).

That's likely a very small part of the plot. I remember last year they released a synopsis for Incredibles 2 that made it sound like The Underminer was gonna be the main villain of the movie and that was over within the first 10 minutes of the movie. Pixar just likes to keep the plots of their movies very much under wraps.

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10 minutes ago, a2k said:

In 2016 from March to end of summer, the big 4 family films ZOOTP + TJB + DORY + PETS did

368.4 + 341.3 + 486.3 + 364.0 = 1560.0

 

If 4 movies could rake in that amount in 2016 then is it impossible for 5 movies to match it in 2019 over the same period (March-August)?

 

TS4, SLOP2, Pikachu, Dumbo and Aladdin can average 325 and it adds up to 1625, "only" 65 more than those 4 movies after 3 years of inflation.

If those were the only family films coming out then yea sure but we can’t ignore that Avengers and Spider-Man also attract family crowds. The MCU is pretty known to have a big boost on Saturday’s that other family films typically have. 

 

And then you’re ignoring the biggest family film of the year next year in The Lion King. 

 

So either films are gonna not make as much as they would because of competition OR some family films are gonna flop and others are gonna be really successful at the expense of the flops. 

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Just now, Nova said:

If those were the only family films coming out then yea sure but we can’t ignore that Avengers and Spider-Man also attract family crowds. The MCU is pretty known to have a big boost on Saturday’s that other family films typically have. 

 

And then you’re ignoring the biggest family film of the year next year in The Lion King. 

 

So either films are gonna not make as much as they would because of competition OR some family films are gonna flop and others are gonna be really successful at the expense of the flops. 

Also in that 2016 timeframe were films like BvS, Civil War, X-Men, and TMNT2.

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I can see the forky stuff being the humorous way the movie begins (like the desert canyon train robbery stuff from TS3). A fun sideplot that has little to nothing to do with the rest of the film. It may or may not set up a theme but won't factor in much for the rest of the movie.

 

As far as people not asking for or wanting a sequel, how often is that the case? Sure, if a series is designated as a trilogy or series (Avengers, Star Wars, Harry Potter) then we want sequels. Other than that, I'm not so sure if there is a want or not want. Incredibles was possibly the only exception. I mean-did anyone really want a sequel to Finding Nemo?

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15 minutes ago, Nova said:

If those were the only family films coming out then yea sure but we can’t ignore that Avengers and Spider-Man also attract family crowds. The MCU is pretty known to have a big boost on Saturday’s that other family films typically have. 

2016 had Civil War, BVS both PG-13 in that same period. So over 6 films including them it becomes 1560.0 + 408.1 + 330.4 = ~2300 for 6 biggest movies from March to August 2016.

Quote

And then you’re ignoring the biggest family film of the year next year in The Lion King. 

 

So either films are gonna not make as much as they would because of competition OR some family films are gonna flop and others are gonna be really successful at the expense of the flops. 

Yeah I ignored TLK so that is fair point. Adding TLK, TA4 and SMH2, 3B over those 8 films seems reasonable

675 TLK + 600 TA4 + 300 SMH2 + 350 TS4 + 300 SLOP2 + 275 PIKACHU + 250 ALADDIN + 250 DUMBO = 3000

Edited by a2k
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2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Also in that 2016 timeframe were films like BvS, Civil War, X-Men, and TMNT2.

Don’t forget Angry Birds and Alice 2 although the former did okay and the latter flopped. 

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More like:

Captain Marvel: $315 million

Dumbo: $275 million

Avengers 4: $640 million

Aladdin: $350 million

Pikachu: $200 million

Toy Story 4: $450 million

SLOP2: $250 million

Spidey FFH: $300 million

TLK: $650 million

 

That's $2.68 billion from Disney alone in that time period

 

Btw, I think I'm being nice about Pikachu. Maybe influenced by all the talk. 

Edited by jedijake
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The 2019 landscape in general is packed from head to toe and in my opinion the ones that draw out the most attention especially on the Internet (as nowadays the parents and the older audience have much more of a decision) will thrive the best.

 

I am confident Captain Marvel will do around Guardians 1 Numbers and I am thinking Shazam may surprise us and has the potential for $300M but I’m thinking Winter Soldier numbers. Dumbo is looking good and I think it’ll be a nice hit not the scale of TJB or Beast but something like Cinderella or Maleficent. 4vengers is the obvious giant.

 

Before the trailer, I’d say Pikachu at Angry Birds numbers but it blew up on the internet far more than anyone expected, was one of the few movie trailers to gain 1M likes and had an impressive 30M views in two days and looks surprisingly good and thanks to the hype of both Pokémon GO and Pokémon Let’s Go games, I believe against 4vengers it’ll be what Jumanji was to VII but I do think the landscape will damage it somewhat and even though I doubt Uglydolls do over Wimpy Kid 4 that’s still some families gone, a run like Monsters University seems fair.

 

Aladdin although views are very strong and my opinion has softened, it won’t have the advantages Beast or even Jungle Book had, inside word says it’s trash, and stuck right in the middle of the family film blitz (Pets 2 on third weekend isn’t good as it needs to stabilize). I can realistically see sub $300M but nostalgia will help it not completely be a Solo.  

 

Pets 2 although it’ll have a sizable decrease from the first thanks to being in the middle of Aladdin and TS4, we now the strong evils of Illumination’s marketing machine and a trailer every month is an example of that, not to mention it’s the first major animated film since Wonder Park. That said trailer views are alarmingly low and should be a problem.

 

I have no doubt despite hating the first teaser and the plot summary and my cynical attitude towards this film, Toy Story 4 will be good movie and the highest ranking family film critically. 

 

However, the main reason why I am thinking an underperformance is mainly due to the lack of attention the teaser is drawing. Toy Story is the kingpin franchise of Pixar, the teaser(s) should’ve exploded online the same way Incredibles 2 or Dory did or at the very least Cars 3. For this summer, family films need the best marketing in order to survive due to how jam packed the schedule is. The fact the views and the teasers failed to leave an impression affirms my beliefs of an underperformance. 

 

Far From Home should have a small decrease domestically as I’m expecting Lion King to bite its legs but it will benefit from lack of big action or live action tentpoles since Godzilla 2. Lion King will be the giant king, one Circle of Life trailer and it’s game over, the cast and I imagine the visuals are huge draws, the movie is a classic, and the competition afterwards are small potatoes too. Though the sheer amount of family films will damper OW but a film this big is more likely to hurt the films that open before it (ala TFA).

 

For the timeframe I am thinking: 

Captain Marvel: $330M

Dumbo: $220M

Shazam!: $260M

4vengers: $650M

Pikachu: $250M

Aladdin: $280M

Pets 2: $275M 

Toy Story 4: $325M 

Far From Home: $300M

Lion King: $830M

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12 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

The 2019 landscape in general is packed from head to toe and in my opinion the ones that draw out the most attention especially on the Internet (as nowadays the parents and the older audience have much more of a decision) will thrive the best.

 

I am confident Captain Marvel will do around Guardians 1 Numbers and I am thinking Shazam may surprise us and has the potential for $300M but I’m thinking Winter Soldier numbers. Dumbo is looking good and I think it’ll be a nice hit not the scale of TJB or Beast but something like Cinderella or Maleficent. 4vengers is the obvious giant.

 

Before the trailer, I’d say Pikachu at Angry Birds numbers but it blew up on the internet far more than anyone expected, was one of the few movie trailers to gain 1M likes and had an impressive 30M views in two days and looks surprisingly good and thanks to the hype of both Pokémon GO and Pokémon Let’s Go games, I believe against 4vengers it’ll be what Jumanji was to VII but I do think the landscape will damage it somewhat and even though I doubt Uglydolls do over Wimpy Kid 4 that’s still some families gone, a run like Monsters University seems fair.

 

Aladdin although views are very strong and my opinion has softened, it won’t have the advantages Beast or even Jungle Book had, inside word says it’s trash, and stuck right in the middle of the family film blitz (Pets 2 on third weekend isn’t good as it needs to stabilize). I can realistically see sub $300M but nostalgia will help it not completely be a Solo.  

 

Pets 2 although it’ll have a sizable decrease from the first thanks to being in the middle of Aladdin and TS4, we now the strong evils of Illumination’s marketing machine and a trailer every month is an example of that, not to mention it’s the first major animated film since Wonder Park. That said trailer views are alarmingly low and should be a problem.

 

I have no doubt despite hating the first teaser and the plot summary and my cynical attitude towards this film, Toy Story 4 will be good movie and the highest ranking family film critically. 

 

However, the main reason why I am thinking an underperformance is mainly due to the lack of attention the teaser is drawing. Toy Story is the kingpin franchise of Pixar, the teaser(s) should’ve exploded online the same way Incredibles 2 or Dory did or at the very least Cars 3. For this summer, family films need the best marketing in order to survive due to how jam packed the schedule is. The fact the views and the teasers failed to leave an impression affirms my beliefs of an underperformance. 

 

Far From Home should have a small decrease domestically as I’m expecting Lion King to bite its legs but it will benefit from lack of big action or live action tentpoles since Godzilla 2. Lion King will be the giant king, one Circle of Life trailer and it’s game over, the cast and I imagine the visuals are huge draws, the movie is a classic, and the competition afterwards are small potatoes too. Though the sheer amount of family films will damper OW but a film this big is more likely to hurt the films that open before it (ala TFA).

 

For the timeframe I am thinking: 

Captain Marvel: $330M

Dumbo: $220M

Shazam!: $260M

4vengers: $650M

Pikachu: $250M

Aladdin: $280M

Pets 2: $275M 

Toy Story 4: $325M 

Far From Home: $300M

Lion King: $830M

Your box office analysis seems reasonable enough, but "inside word says it's trash"....where did that come from?

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how the hell does Forky "baby-fy" the franchise? if anything, Forky seems to allow the franchise to embrace new themes that aren't what was explored in 2 and 3 but can still have a ton of depth.

 

He seems a hell of a lot more interesting than "Woody tries to find his old girlfriend who had a very small role in the first two films"

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