1 Billion movies 2014 (What will be 2014's Frozen?)

[peludo]

I hope that we will see some +800M OS movies this year. 800M is just so WOW, so I realy hope that TH3 will get that mark.

IMO, just TF4 and TH3 have any options, but I see it difficult. Maybe TH3 can reach it because it is the end, but after DOS result I have many doubts. Said this, I really hope it can get it.

[FrozenFan626]

What movie do you think will be the surprise of 2014? Any guesses? 

 

I think X-Men: DOFP will be a lot higher than people think. I mentioned a few factors that I think will help on the Frozen OS thread but I see $700m+ as a distinct possibility with a outside shot (like 10% chance) of getting to a billion.

[Mulder]

Transformers: IV is the only certainty for making over a billion. TASM2 might make over a billion.

[FrozenFan626]

Transformers: IV is the only certainty for making over a billion. TASM2 might make over a billion.

 

Welcome to the forums! I see the Hobbit as a pretty solid bet but yeah the overseas haul should get TF4 there too.

[Mulder]

Oh yeah forgot about Hobbit. It depends really on how much the marketing markets it as the final LoTR film IMHO. If they focus on that it'll make over a billion.

[pepsa]

Oh yeah forgot about Hobbit. It depends really on how much the marketing markets it as the final LoTR film IMHO. If they focus on that it'll make over a billion.

 

Ofc, and a lot of people were pleased with the DoS (personaly I was a bit decepointed because to action crowded) but they got a huge battle just like with ROTK so they could attrack some action guy people with that, I think.

[pepsa]

Does some one think that maleficent can be the next frozen?

I think in Europe there is an audience for that, but I don't know if the movie will be liked by childeren....

[Mulder]

Does some one think that maleficent can be the next frozen?

I think in Europe there is an audience for that, but I don't know if the movie will be liked by childeren....

Frozen has a much wider appeal. Maleficent might make Alice In Wonderland numbers if it's lucky.

[BadAtGender]

Frozen has a much wider appeal. Maleficent might make Alice In Wonderland numbers if it's lucky.

 

Alice in Wonderland made over a billion dollars. Frozen is looking to finish somewhere between 1.1 and 1.2 billion. It's certainly higher, but not astronomically so. If Maleficent does a billion, it's certainly within the range of Frozen's appeal.

[SentryTrans]

TF3 made 1.12B.

 

TF4 will make more than TF3.

[edroger3]

Does some one think that maleficent can be the next frozen?

I think in Europe there is an audience for that, but I don't know if the movie will be liked by childeren....

IMHO Maleficent, for Disney, can be the next Lone Ranger. Too dark and scary for 'like Frozen' audience, I think that Maleficent have only one similarity with Frozen: production budget.

[23IsEverywhere]

I think TF4 will be a better movie, but I see it lower than TF3 with the time that has passed.

IMO potential 1B

TF4 95%

Maleficent 55%

BH6 40%

Intersteller 10% 

TASM2 10%

Godzilla 5%

I feel like I'm missing something but not sure what

[peludo]

I think TF4 will be a better movie, but I see it lower than TF3 with the time that has passed.

IMO potential 1B

TF4 95%

Maleficent 55%

BH6 40%

Intersteller 10% 

TASM2 10%

Godzilla 5%

I feel like I'm missing something but not sure what

Hobbit 3

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

IMHO Maleficent, for Disney, can be the next Lone Ranger. Too dark and scary for 'like Frozen' audience, I think that Maleficent have only one similarity with Frozen: production budget.

Maleficent has PG rating which is the same with both Alice and Oz!

So....

[Ash Skywalker]

hobbit will make a billion mostly with ease,TF4 can do it too,and THG will fall short of itTASM2 have a fair chance OS it wll increase the real challenge is with DOM for it..and maybe 1 0r 2 SURPRISE Blockbusters who knows!i want HTTYD2 to do the BILLION-with it's fantastic visuals,gripping story,& outstanding animation httyd2 soared to billion $$$   

[Omni]

Chances of 1B:

 

TF4 95%

TH3 90%

HG3 25%

Godzilla 20%

HTTYD2 15%

Intersteller 10% 

TASM2 10%

BH6 3%

Maleficent 0.1%

 

Maleficent is (practically) not a candidate.

[BadAtGender]

TF3 made 1.12B.

 

TF4 will make more than TF3.

 

TF4 stands a good chance of hitting 1b, but it's not guaranteed to outgross TF3. The domestic gross is very likely to drop, perhaps more than $50m. And while some markets may see a rise, I do believe the dollar is currently weaker than it was in 2011, so even if those markets see an increase in local currency, they could gross less in dollars, leading to a lower OS total.

 

Ultimately, while there are several films that could gross over a billion, I don't think anything until Avengers 2 will see a higher WW total than Frozen.

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

Chances of 1B:

 

TF4 95%

TH3 90%

HG3 25%

Godzilla 20%

HTTYD2 15%

Intersteller 10% 

TASM2 10%

BH6 3%

Maleficent 0.1%

 

Maleficent is (practically) not a candidate.

HG3 not 25%

 last year box office mojo said that HG2 has 40% to reach a bilion!

Maleficent surely not 0,1%!

You can say 5-10% but not 0,1!!!!

[Omni]

It can be very successful if things work in its favor. But 1B is just too far away. It needs to get more admissions than Alice in Wonderland to get there, considering it's not having the 3D craze on its side (AIW would gross like 40M less in Japan alone just because of the low 3D share and unfavorable exchange rate). It's also released at the end of May, meaning the World Cup and the strong June competition will weaken its legs. 6,7 or even 800 millions are possible, 1B isn't.

 

BOM's predictions aren't reliable at all. A 160M jump over CF will be quite hard to achieve for HG3, 25% may be generous.

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

It can be very successful if things work in its favor. But 1B is just too far away. It needs to get more admissions than Alice in Wonderland to get there, considering it's not having the 3D craze on its side (AIW would gross like 40M less in Japan alone just because of the low 3D share and unfavorable exchange rate). It's also released at the end of May, meaning the World Cup and the strong June competition will weaken its legs. 6,7 or even 800 millions are possible, 1B isn't.

 

BOM's predictions aren't reliable at all. A 160M jump over CF will be quite hard to achieve for HG3, 25% may be generous.

Ok but not say 0,1% because it sounds like the movie is going to do 500m worldwide and 1b is a fairy tale.