1 Billion movies 2014 (What will be 2014's Frozen?)

[Omni]

But 1B IS a fairy tale

[Incarnadine]

It can be very successful if things work in its favor. But 1B is just too far away. It needs to get more admissions than Alice in Wonderland to get there, considering it's not having the 3D craze on its side (AIW would gross like 40M less in Japan alone just because of the low 3D share and unfavorable exchange rate). It's also released at the end of May, meaning the World Cup and the strong June competition will weaken its legs. 6,7 or even 800 millions are possible, 1B isn't.

 

BOM's predictions aren't reliable at all. A 160M jump over CF will be quite hard to achieve for HG3, 25% may be generous.

Mockingjay only needs to increase 135.5m from CF to reach 1 billion, that's less than CF (864.5M) increased from THG (691.2M).

That being said, I think 25% is reasonable given that virtually the entire increase from THG to CF was from the overseas market where there is definitely room for it to grow. The split for THG was 59% domestic, 41% overseas, the split for CF was 49.1% Domestic, 50.9% overseas.

Edited April 3, 2014 by Incarnadine

[A Marvel Fanboy]

lol

[peludo]

Mockingjay only needs to increase 135.5m from CF to reach 1 billion, that's less than CF (864.5M) increased from THG (691.2M).

That being said, I think 25% is reasonable given that virtually the entire increase from THG to CF was from the overseas market where there is definitely room for it to grow. The split for THG was 59% domestic, 41% overseas, the split for CF was 49.1% Domestic, 50.9% overseas.

It does not work in that way. CF was the movie that had to grow OS. It did, but not enough in order to think Mockingjay 1 can reach billion. In fact, I think MJ1 will stay flat or maybe with a tiny increase. MJ2 will increase again because of final factor and it will probably reach billion. It happened to Breaking Dawn 1, Deathly Hallows 1 and Desolation of Smaug (in fact, it decreased). The split of a single book doubles benefits but damages the numbers of the first part (or every part which is not the finale)

[pepsa]

I think TH3 got a chance to surpass Frozen. If it got a good marketingcampain it could make more than ROTK I think.

Btw, what does BH6 mean?

[peludo]

I think TH3 got a chance to surpass Frozen. If it got a good marketingcampain it could make more than ROTK I think.

Btw, what does BH6 mean?

BH6 is Big Hero 6

 

To make more than ROTK does not imply to make more than Frozen, given Frozen is going to beat both ROTK and TF3 WW.

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

Some people have to understand that Maleficent won't be that scary film that everybody thinks it is!

It has PG rating like both Oz and Alice which means that the film may not be suitable for children!!!!

Its not like Harry potter films which have PG-13 rating and it means that there is material in the film that is not suitable for children under the age of 13.

 

And the last Harry Potter film(which by the way is my favourite ) reached $1.3b worldwide!

[Omni]

Flawless reasoning!

Aristotelian syllogisms pale in comparison!

[edroger3]

 

Some people have to understand that Maleficent won't be that scary film that everybody thinks it is!

It has PG rating like both Oz and Alice which means that the film may not be suitable for children!!!!

Its not like Harry potter films which have PG-13 rating and it means that there is material in the film that is not suitable for children under the age of 13.

 

And the last Harry Potter film(which by the way is my favourite ) reached $1.3b worldwide!

 

Harry Potter DH2 was the last (and most awaited) movie of the highest grossing franchise ever. This is an absurd comparaison.

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

Harry Potter DH2 was the last (and most awaited) movie of the highest grossing franchise ever. This is an absurd comparaison.

Ok but both Alice and Maleficent have the same rating.

And Maleficent has not any competition after all!

Well it has to face X-men but that's only!

[edroger3]

Ok but both Alice and Maleficent have the same rating.And Maleficent has not any competition after all!Well it has to face X-men but that's only!

Same rating = same grosses? I don't think. Lego Movie had the same rating of Frozen, both had no direct competition, both was original animated, but Frozen grossed three times more.

[pepsa]

BOM's predictions:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3816&p=.htm

[JCS]

Transformers 4

The Hobbit: TBA

Interstellar

 

Only films that have a good chance of $1B this year.

[PatrickvD]

Transformers 4

The Hobbit: TBA

Interstellar

 

Only films that have a good chance of $1B this year.

 

Such safe bets.

 

Nobody predicted Frozen to make a billion.

[Gokai Red]

Honestly, I think Big Hero 6 might have a chance if it's good. The WDAS and Marvel brands are both super hot right now. "From the makers of Frozen, Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph " is worth a couple hundred million dollars on its own right now at the very least. It could do quite well in Asia especially. I dunno, I'm not counting on it, but I really think it's very possible.

[JCS]

Such safe bets.

 

Nobody predicted Frozen to make a billion.

 

Frozen was a massive anomaly.

 

In recent years, on average 3 $1B a year so I picked 3.

[Rsyu]

Which 2014 Movies Could Reach $1 Billion?

by Ray Subers

April 8, 2014

 

Here the odds on some of 2014's biggest movies, broken down in to two categories: "sequels" and "originals."

 

Sequels

 

Captain America: The Winter Soldier (April)

 

By the end of its first weekend in the U.S., the Captain America sequel had already earned over $300 million worldwide. With strong reviews and good word-of-mouth, it seems like a safe bet that The Winter Soldier can wind up above Thor: The Dark World ($645 million). Still, it would require incredible holds to get to $1 billion, and it's going to run in to tough competition from The Amazing Spider-Man 2 beginning in mid-April. Odds: 10%

 

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May)

 

The Spider-Man character has always had a strong worldwide presence: all four of the movies so far have earned over $750 million. However, even with 3D premiums, 2012's The Amazing Spider-Man was the lowest-grossing one so far, which suggests this series has lost some of its luster.

 

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 does have a number of advantages, though. First, it has a better release date—the first weekend of May has historically been the best place to launch a comic book movie, and both The Avengers and Iron Man 3 recently over-performed in this spot. It also ups the ante with a handful of villains, including fan favorite Green Goblin.

 

Still, The Amazing Spider-Man only received a so-so response, which makes two underwhelming Spider-Man movies in a row. That's not a good trend, and usually foreshadows declining grosses. As of now, the best-case scenario for The Amazing Spider-Man 2 is probably around $850 million worldwide. Odds: 20%

 

X-Men: Days of Future Past (May)

 

Bringing together the original cast and the First Class cast, X-Men: Days of Future Past is being positioned as the Avengers of X-Men movies. The original team delivers a strong jolt of nostalgia, while the First Class group has a significantly higher profile now than they did three years ago (in particular, Jennifer Lawrence is now a global superstar). Add in an exciting, high-stakes story involving time travel, and Days of Future Past is guaranteed to be the highest-grossing X-Men movie yet.

 

Unfortunately, the X-Men franchise doesn't have the greatest track record at the box office. Its domestic high is $234.4 million (2006's X-Men: The Last Stand), while its overseas high is $282.3 million (last year's The Wolverine). If it can grow the audience like The Avengers or The Dark Knight, it will clear $1 billion, but the odds of that happening are low. Odds: 20%.

 

How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June)

 

The first How to Train Your Dragon earned just shy of $500 million worldwide in early 2010. With goodwill from that well-received installment, and with a Summer that's oddly lacking animated competition, How to Train Your Dragon 2 is going to see significantly higher numbers. Last Summer's Despicable Me 2 leveraged its strong brand in to a 79 percent increase: if Dragon 2 does the same, it will fall just short of $900 million. Odds: 25%

 

Transformers: Age of Extinction (June)

 

From day one, the Transformers franchise was a huge moneymaker. It reached new heights with the third installment, Transformers: Dark of the Moon, which earned over $1.12 billion worldwide (currently sixth all-time). While Age of Extinction loses Shia LaBeouf, it adds Mark Wahlberg and dinosaur robots (so, probably a net gain).

 

With the questionable quality of the past two installments—and the general franchise fatigue that usually sets in by a fourth entry—Age of Extinction will almost certainly take a dip at the domestic box office. It's foolish to think this is made for U.S. audiences, though, and it should hold relatively steady overseas. In particular, look for it to put up record numbers in China: the last one earned over $165 million there, and Age of Extinction is partially set in the country. Odds: 70%

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July)

 

The first Apes reboot—2011's Rise of the Planet of the Apes—earned $482 million worldwide, and remains well-liked three years later. The sequel takes the story in an exciting new direction, pitting apes against humans in a post-apocalyptic wasteland. With a strong mid-July release date and the addition of 3D, it's undoubtedly going to get a big bump over its predecessor.

 

As with most of these other movies, though, the odds are extremely low that a sequel can double its predecessor's grosses. As a result, Apes is a very unlikely $1 billion contender. Odds: 15%

 

The Hunger Games: Mockingjay, Part 1 (November)

 

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire earned $865 million worldwide, which was a 25 percent improvement over its predecessor. If Mockingjay Part 1 experienced a similar boost, it would wind up close to $1.1 billion.

 

The odds of that happening again are slim. The first half of the Mockingjay book is largely set-up, and diverts significantly from the Hunger Games structure (there aren't any "games" this time around). Penultimate chapters in the Harry Potter and Twilight franchises—both of which were also the first half of a final book—only gained two percent on their predecessors. Mockingjay Part 1 will almost certainly do better than this, but $1 billion still isn't a lock. Odds: 40%

 

The Hobbit: There and Back Again (December)

 

The first Hobbit movie made it just past $1 billion, while The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug petered out around $950 million. The final installment will likely get back over $1 billion: audiences seemed to enjoy Smaug more than its predecessor, and series conclusions tend to see increased attendance. Odds: 55%

 

Link: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3816&p=.htm

[Rsyu]

Which 2014 Movies Could Reach $1 Billion? (cont.)

by Ray Subers

 

Originals

 

Godzilla (May)

 

Big-budget disaster movies tend to draw huge crowds, and Godzilla is a brand that resonates with global audiences. Back in 1998, Roland Emmerich's Godzilla earned $379 million worldwide; with the expanded foreign market and drastically higher ticket prices, it's hard to imagine this new movie earning a penny less than $500 million. Still, even if it does twice as much business as last Summer's Pacific Rim, it would still be well short of $1 billion. Odds: 15%

 

Maleficent (May)

 

Back in 2010, Alice in Wonderland became one of the rare "original" movies to earn over $1 billion worldwide. Remodeling iconic fantasies in big-budget live-action form has since become a major part of Disney's strategy. Unfortunately, Oz The Great and Powerful earned less than half as much as Alice in Wonderland, suggesting that movie's success was an anomaly. Featuring the Sleeping Beauty villain as the protagonist, Maleficent is an even tougher sell. Odds: 10%

 

Guardians of the Galaxy (August)

 

The Marvel Cinematic Universe is massively popular, and has delivered two $1 billion movies in the past two years (The Avengers, Iron Man 3). Guardians of the Galaxy has a very tenuous connection to those movies, and seems a bit too strange to become a global sensation. Still, never count out big-budget sci-fi: five years ago, who would have predicted a movie about Na'vi was going to earn over $2.7 billion? Odds: 5%

 

Interstellar (November)

 

Director Christopher Nolan's last three movies have earned over $2.9 billion worldwide. While two of those involved Batman, it's undeniable that Nolan is a major box office draw. His next movie Interstellar is currently shrouded in mystery, though it's at least known that it involves scientists attempting to travel through a wormhole in space. Assuming the movie mostly delivers on its promise, it's hard to imagine it earns much less than Nolan's 2010 hit Inception ($825 million). Odds: 25%

 

Big Hero 6 (November)

 

Disney Animation is coming off their biggest hit yet in Frozen, which is poised to pass $1.1 billion in the next week or two. The next movie from the animation house is Big Hero 6, which will also benefit from its Marvel roots. Still, similar Disney Animation movie Wreck-It Ralph opened at the same time in 2012 and couldn't crack $500 million. Earning twice as much would be surprising. Odds: 5%

 

[Peeta Tong Karanasios]

Only 1 month yet for Maleficent!

[pepsa]

So far we  didn't have a movie that broke out that could reach 1B. It's a bit dissapointing this far.