Weekend #'s April 18-20 Cap2: 26.2 Rio 22.5 Heaven 21.5 Trans 11.1 pg32

[Ando918]

I think Captain America 2 will remain #1 next weekend for a 4th weekend in a row and that "The Other Woman" will underperform with only a 14-15 million OW.  Here's why:  1) The solid word of mouth of Divergent will steal Other Woman's target audience of teenage girls for the next week.  Especially now that Lionsgate has released news about Allegiant - this will pique girls' curiosity about Divergent and it will only fall about 33% every weekend from now on.  The Other Woman was tossed into the spring schedule as "cheap budget filler", similar to how a crappy Katherine Heigl/Kate Hudson rom-com used to be.  If Divergent had sucked domestically - say it only ended up making 100 domestic - then The Other Woman could end up being successful.  But I see it only making upper 30s/low 40s domestic given how we have 2 domestic blockbusters now (Captain and Divergent) that are piquing audiences curiosity.  This will benefit Captain next weekend again.  The Other Woman's Facebook likes are extremely low (1/7 of what Divergent's was a few days before its release).

[CJohn]

Heh, I actually think FOX fucked up The Other Woman. Could have easily been released during Summer. Any Summer except this one. There are way to many comedies in the Summer this year.

[Captain Craig]

I'd love for The Other Woman to come in under $15m and the others and allow for CA:TWS to become the first film of 2014 to pull a 4-peat at #1. However, TOW is not directly marketed to the same female demo as Divergent + it's been out for 6 weeks now. 

[ecstasy]

Heaven Is For Real #1 on Sunday - hugely underestimated while everything else was overestimated

 

Well Sunday was Easter Sunday.

[ecstasy]

Heaven is for Real actuals are above Rio  2

 

1 1 Captain America: The Winter Soldier BV $25,587,056 -38.0% 3,825 -113 $6,689 $200,501,510 $170 3 2 N Heaven is for Real TriS $22,522,221 - 2,417 - $9,318 $29,556,414 $12 1 3 2 Rio 2 Fox $22,159,742 -43.7% 3,975 +27 $5,575 $75,045,122 $103 2 4 N Transcendence WB $10,886,386 - 3,455 - $3,151 $10,886,386 $100 1 5 N A Haunted House 2 ORF $8,843,875 - 2,310 - $3,829 $8,843,875 $4 1 6 4 Draft Day LG/S $5,713,076 -41.6% 2,781 - $2,054 $19,360,863 - 2 7 6 Divergent LG/S $5,611,624 -24.0% 2,486 -624 $2,257 $133,776,491 $85 5 8 3 Oculus Rela. $5,156,880 -57.0% 2,648 - $1,947 $21,146,271 $5 2 9 5 Noah Par. $5,003,303 -33.8% 2,537 -745 $1,972 $93,277,129 $125 4 10 N Bears BV $4,776,267 - 1,720 - $2,777 $4,776,267 - 1

 

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

 

Not surprising since HIFR beat Rio2 on Saturday I think.

[darkelf]

Well Sunday was Easter Sunday.

 

Well yeah and they still estimated a fall of ~34% for HIFR and ~36-38% for everything else. Weird.

[ecstasy]

Well yeah and they still estimated a fall of ~34% for HIFR and ~36-38% for everything else. Weird.

 

That is weird.

[DAR]

Heh, I actually think FOX fucked up The Other Woman. Could have easily been released during Summer. Any Summer except this one. There are way to many comedies in the Summer this year.

 

 

Well they are getting it out before "summer" technically.

[Ando918]

I'd love for The Other Woman to come in under $15m and the others and allow for CA:TWS to become the first film of 2014 to pull a 4-peat at #1. However, TOW is not directly marketed to the same female demo as Divergent + it's been out for 6 weeks now. 

I respectfully disagree about the demo audience for the two.  TOW added pop culture names like Nicki Minaj and Kate Upton in there plus made the movie PG-13 specifically so the target audience would be middle school, high school, and college aged girls.  I don't believe that females over age 25 will bother buying a ticket to see TOW.  Just my opinion.

[jse]

I think Captain America 2 will remain #1 next weekend for a 4th weekend in a row and that "The Other Woman" will underperform with only a 14-15 million OW.  Here's why:  1) The solid word of mouth of Divergent will steal Other Woman's target audience of teenage girls for the next week.  Especially now that Lionsgate has released news about Allegiant - this will pique girls' curiosity about Divergent and it will only fall about 33% every weekend from now on.  The Other Woman was tossed into the spring schedule as "cheap budget filler", similar to how a crappy Katherine Heigl/Kate Hudson rom-com used to be.  If Divergent had sucked domestically - say it only ended up making 100 domestic - then The Other Woman could end up being successful.  But I see it only making upper 30s/low 40s domestic given how we have 2 domestic blockbusters now (Captain and Divergent) that are piquing audiences curiosity.  This will benefit Captain next weekend again.  The Other Woman's Facebook likes are extremely low (1/7 of what Divergent's was a few days before its release).

 

 

I'd love for The Other Woman to come in under $15m and the others and allow for CA:TWS to become the first film of 2014 to pull a 4-peat at #1. However, TOW is not directly marketed to the same female demo as Divergent + it's been out for 6 weeks now. 

 

 

Well Sunday was Easter Sunday.

 

TWS only dropped 38% but it was Easter Weekend so that drop is deflated. a drop of 40% for next week gets it 15.4, a drop of 45%, 14.1M. 1st place for for next weekend is definitely in jeopardy but i hope it's able to hold on.

 

Cap is definitely known for his never-say-die attitude in the comics so he deserves the #1 spot next weekend  .

[a2k]

I'd love for The Other Woman to come in under $15m and the others and allow for CA:TWS to become the first film of 2014 to pull a 4-peat at #1. However, TOW is not directly marketed to the same female demo as Divergent + it's been out for 6 weeks now. 

 

Certainly possible. It needs a drop of 41% or lower to touch 15m.

 

In 2012 two of top 10 films fell more than 50% post easter weekend (wrath of titans, american reunion) - all else was below 40%.

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2012&wknd=15&p=.htm

 

In 2013 2 films were above 50%(the host, tyler perry), g.i.joe was 48% and rest were below 40%

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2013&wknd=14&p=.htm

[DAR]

I wonder what the biggest story of this first half is going to be?  The influx of religious themed movies that have hit would likely be mine.  Clearly there's an audience out there for these movies. 

[ecstasy]

I respectfully disagree about the demo audience for the two.  TOW added pop culture names like Nicki Minaj and Kate Upton in there plus made the movie PG-13 specifically so the target audience would be middle school, high school, and college aged girls.  I don't believe that females over age 25 will bother buying a ticket to see TOW.  Just my opinion.

 

That's too much of a generalization.

[CaptainJackSparrow]

I wonder what the biggest story of this first half is going to be? The influx of religious themed movies that have hit would likely be mine. Clearly there's an audience out there for these movies.

Agreed, Hollywood has finally learned.

[babz06]

I'd love for The Other Woman to come in under $15m and the others and allow for CA:TWS to become the first film of 2014 to pull a 4-peat at #1. However, TOW is not directly marketed to the same female demo as Divergent + it's been out for 6 weeks now. 

Yeah i think The Other Woman should still get a good opening. Its being catered to women over 25. Plus it has Nicki Minaj and Kate Upton which should widen appeal in other demographics.  Divergent's target is women under 25 and mainly the teen crowd. 

 

predict 16m OW/60m DOM

It should have decent legs going into May being the only female-centered comedy, I dont think Neighbors will hurt it too much. 

[darkelf]

Agreed, Hollywood has finally learned.

 

Yeah, sure, now they won't make too many of them and the market won't get over-saturated at all. That never happens.

[CJohn]

I wonder what the biggest story of this first half is going to be?  The influx of religious themed movies that have hit would likely be mine.  Clearly there's an audience out there for these movies. 

Just watch, next year we will be getting one of those every week from the beginning of February until Easter weekend, in which we will have 2 or 3 new religious movies (one on Wednesday, another on Thursday and another on Friday ). 

 

And after that we will probably get one of them every week from early November until Christmas Day. From December 21 to December 25 there will be one being released every day. It is happening. Deal with it

 

Hollywood is gonna suck on that tit so hard. These things cost 5-10M to produce. They will make a new one every day.

Edited April 21, 2014 by CJohn

[kitik]

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	1	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	BV	$25,587,056	-38.0%	3,825	-113	$6,689	$200,501,510	$170	3
2	N	Heaven is for Real	TriS	$22,522,221	-	2,417	-	$9,318	$29,556,414	$12	1
3	2	Rio 2	Fox	$22,159,742	-43.7%	3,975	+27	$5,575	$75,045,122	$103	2
4	N	Transcendence	WB	$10,886,386	-	3,455	-	$3,151	$10,886,386	$100	1
5	N	A Haunted House 2	ORF	$8,843,875	-	2,310	-	$3,829	$8,843,875	$4	1
6	4	Draft Day	LG/S	$5,713,076	-41.6%	2,781	-	$2,054	$19,360,863	-	2
7	6	Divergent	LG/S	$5,611,624	-24.0%	2,486	-624	$2,257	$133,776,491	$85	5
8	3	Oculus	Rela.	$5,156,880	-57.0%	2,648	-	$1,947	$21,146,271	$5	2
9	5	Noah	Par.	$5,003,303	-33.8%	2,537	-745	$1,972	$93,277,129	$125	4
10	N	Bears	BV	$4,776,267	-	1,720	-	$2,777	$4,776,267	-	1
11	7	God's Not Dead	Free	$4,646,762	-16.1%	1,796	-64	$2,587	$48,172,075	$2	5
12	8	The Grand Budapest Hotel	FoxS	$3,415,528	-16.1%	1,280	-187	$2,668	$44,964,929	-	7
13	N	2 States	UTV	$1,066,054	-	135	-	$7,897	$1,066,054	-	1
14	9	Muppets Most Wanted	BV	$1,057,265	-53.5%	929	-1,332	$1,138	$48,307,818	$50	5
15	10	Mr. Peabody & Sherman	Fox	$788,223	-57.9%	780	-1,221	$1,011	$107,164,804	$145	7
16	22	Under the Skin (2014)	A24	$467,000	+65.8%	176	+122	$2,653	$1,086,000	-	3
17	15	The LEGO Movie	WB	$399,466	-20.4%	340	-270	$1,175	$252,259,056	$60	11
18	12	Non-Stop	Uni.	$379,270	-49.4%	360	-402	$1,054	$90,147,130	$50	8
19	11	The Raid 2	SPC	$363,672	-62.0%	539	-415	$675	$2,219,261	-	4
20	21	The Lunchbox	SPC	$349,663	+23.2%	158	+29	$2,213	$2,220,609	-	8
21	13	Need for Speed	BV	$294,059	-56.9%	258	-355	$1,140	$42,648,942	$66	6
22	19	Son of God	Fox	$270,704	-9.0%	503	-402	$538	$59,437,041	-	8
23	23	Le Week-End	MBox	$266,820	+6.5%	149	+4	$1,791	$1,587,541	-	6
24	17	Frozen	BV	$258,894	-32.8%	290	-54	$893	$399,877,967	$150	22

[kitik]

There's a slight difference in the budgets between Transcendence and A Haunted House 2.

[Dementeleus]

Poor RAID.