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Weekend 8th - 11th December 2011 (AU) - Puss commands the top, NYE starts quietly...

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Australian Box Office

Weekend 8th to 11th December 2011


Over the weekend, Puss in Boots opened with a reasonable 2.9m (3.9m total so far). While this compares favorably to Megamind from 2010 (which had the same release date) which opened with 2.4m, it was no where near the highs of the shrek films and was even a distant 2m behind the 4th films from last year. Megamind went on to make over 15m with what was considered to be dissappointing legs at the time (though it certainly had strong legs given the time of the year). This would indicate that Puss should be good for at least 15m and has a very strong shot at 20m. Next weekend, Puss should be able to hold well (similarily to Megamind) though given the following weekend is Christmas I'm expecting a severe drop that weekend followed by an impressive week. Also opening over the weekend, was New Year's Eve which opened with an ok 2.6m. It came no where near the similar style film Valentines Day (in fact it's was barely a third of the opening weekend valentines pulled). Then again this film was never targeting a big opening here and is really targeting a big run after christmas in the lead up to the titular weekend assuming it doesn't get lost in the crush of that week.


Of course, our 2 openers displaced the 4 week old Twilight: Breaking Dawn 1 which made a still strong 1.2m and a running total of 26.1m. While this is still a great result, this is well below what expected prior to the opening and now well and truely trails both eclipse and new moon by a margin. The only bit of good news is, Breaking Dawn 1 has now passed the first films total. Given how far it now trails behind New Moon (some 7m) and that New Moon is also continuing to out pace Breaking Dawn 1 on a weekly basis, it now appears that BD1 will fall short of 30m even with Christmas approaching. This is just simply put disappointing and now has me wondering whether we will see a further drop to the first films levels or will we see an uptick in a similar way Deathly Hallows 2 jumped here. only 11 months left and we'll know that answer. Jack & Jill made a further 1m and now 3.5m running total, and rounding out the 5 was the Inbetweeners continued it's great run past 7m. Inbetweeners looks to be targeting a total somewhere between 9m and 11m (depending on the christmas bump), which is nothing short of surprising.


The upcoming weekend sees the release of Tom Cruise's return to the mission impossible series, Ghost Protocol. Ghost will be an interesting test, as it's the sole big release (see my comments in the next sentence) due over the weekend. This is the same release date that both Tron Legacy and Avatar took over the past 2 years. I have no expectations that MI4 will come anywhere near Avatar's opening, so lets look at Tron. Tron opened with 3.4m a year ago powering its way to to just short of 15m. This is something i think MI4 would be aspiring to reach here. Now I doubt MI4 can get anywhere near the 2nd films impressive 6m opening and 22m total. The first and 3rd film both opened around 3.8m with the 3rd film burning out faster finishing on 10m while the first film made a much more reasonable 15m. As already noted, this film should be targeting at least somewhere between these 2 films, and I think a success here would see MI4 making in excess of 15m. Either way an opening greater than 3m seems likely with a possible breakout past 4m but i see this unlikely given the track history. Dolphin Tale 3D is also released over the weekend, but i don't think it's very wide (between 100 and 150 prints) and i'm expecting an opening outside the top 5 at this point.


Predictions for Next Weeked (15 - 18 Dec. 2011)


1 - Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol - 3.3m / 3.3m

2 - Puss in Boots - 3m / 7.9m

3 - New Years Eve - 1.5m / 4.7m

4 - The Inbetweeners - 670k / 8.1m

5 - Breaking Dawn 1 - 600k / 27m


Results - 8th - 11th December 2011


TW

LW

Title

Rating

Weekend Gross

% Change

Prints

Per Print Average

Total Gross

TI

1

-

PUSS IN BOOTS

PG

$2,918,635

-

507

$5,757

$3,990,074

1

2

-

NEW YEAR`S EVE

M

$2,645,612

-

336

$7,874

$2,645,612

1

3

1

THE TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN - PART 1

M

$1,152,315

-47.2%

370

$3,114

$26,165,362

4

4

2

JACK AND JILL

PG

$1,041,530

-40.7%

246

$4,234

$3,537,369

2

5

3

THE INBETWEENERS

MA15+

$999,980

-35.5%

228

$4,386

$7,220,736

3

6

6

ARTHUR CHRISTMAS

G

$558,100

-23.1%

424

$1,316

$3,417,242

3

7

5

THE IDES OF MARCH

M

$530,940

-29.3%

87

$6,103

$2,883,998

3

8

4

IMMORTALS

MA15+

$488,544

-45.1%

211

$2,315

$4,206,216

3

9

7

MONEYBALL

M

$188,933

-43.0%

97

$1,948

$4,826,804

5

10

9

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS

PG

$136,440

-29.9%

79

$1,727

$6,662,895

8

11

8

IN TIME

M

$106,351

-45.4%

59

$1,803

$9,023,592

7

12

PR

THE WOMEN ON THE 6TH FLOOR

PG

$91,312

-

25

$3,652

$305,398

0

13

10

WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN

MA15+

$75,207

-19.6%

25

$3,008

$613,938

4

14

12

THE DEBT

MA15+

$54,630

-27.1%

31

$1,762

$1,189,450

5

15

14

DRIVE

MA15+

$46,648

-24.4%

30

$1,555

$2,250,074

7

16

-

LADIES VS RICKY BAHL

PG

$46,229

-

12

$3,852

$46,229

1

17

13

ATTACK THE BLOCK

MA15+

$31,447

-51.8%

39

$806

$143,151

2

18

18

BILL CUNNINGHAM NEW YORK

PG

$24,210

-13.2%

15

$1,614

$384,017

6

19

17

AGES OF LOVE

MA15+

$20,459

-45.3%

14

$1,461

$392,149

3

20

15

DIRTY PICTURE

M

$19,143

-67.8%

6

$3,191

$106,264

2

Edited by Jajang

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i didn't say impossible, just it's against the history of the franchise at the moment and the time of the year is against it (exclude avatar from this for a second). It could well make it but i would see that as a breakout for this film given the history. 3.8m / 10m is a terrible multiplier for Australia (the last MI film release here) indicating bad word of mouth....

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To be fair, movies like The Da Vinci Code and X-Men 3 got in the way of good legs.

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very true, but in saying that, given the number of films due for release over christmas, it could be ignored. This weekend until avatar came along wasn't typically a strong weekend as most threatres were closed christmas day. most distributors either targeted early december or boxing day. they avoided the middle of december like the plague typically. i will say this, though i do think that MI4 has a stronger chance of survival here than in the US with SH2 being released 1 week prior.

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Yeah. I was going to say that MI3 just got lost in the rut. But it seems that the rut is just a big now, if not bigger.

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I just don't see the buzz here for it. And i'm quite sure dolphin take is coming out too..Puss in boots will play great as there are no kids films until the 1st.

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