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The Disney Thread | Iger will be with us until 2026

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7 hours ago, dudalb said:

The don;t get that nobody in the industry expects a unborken string of sucesses. what matters is how much porfit a division makes overall. WDAS and PIxar have nothing to worry about.

 

They got knocked down and they get back up. 

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On 11/28/2022 at 3:05 AM, dudalb said:

The don;t get that nobody in the industry expects a unborken string of sucesses. what matters is how much porfit a division makes overall. WDAS and PIxar have nothing to worry about.

Plus the headlines of Disney shutting down the studio that Walt built and killing one of the most successful animation studio of all time would not be pretty. 

 

There's always way too much hyperbole surrounding Disney and other studios, they had good times and bad times. It's just how the industry works. 

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Been waiting for a while but the Disney Annual Report finally came out (it was delayed due to Bob Iger coming back) Can be found here: (if anyone wants to take a deeper dive) https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/the_walt_disney_company/SEC/sec-show.aspx?FilingId=16233275&Cik=0001744489&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1

 

Let's Strt with the bad news

 

Analysing Disney yearly reports 2018-2022

 

Domestic cable subscriber estimates using Nielsen (in millions)

 

2018

ESPN - 86

Disney Channel - 89

 

2019

ESPN - 83

Disney Channel - 86

FX - 87

National Geographic -86

 

2020

ESPN - 84

Disney Channel - 85

FX - 86

National Geographic - 85

 

2021

ESPN - 76

Disney Channel - 76

FX - 77

National Geographic - 76

 

2022

ESPN - 74

Disney Channel - 74

FX - 74

National Geographic - 73

 

2022 didn't see as big a drop as 2021 thankfully but still Disney Channel is down 15m subs and ESPN down 12m from 2018 levels. FX and Nat Geo both down 13m from 2019 and affiliate fees are barely offsetting loss of subscribers, internationally revenue is down although that is tricky to gauge as they have been closing channels internationally which will have an impact so didn't include that here. 

 

Now on to make up of revenue:

 

2018

Total Revenue - $59.434B

Linear Networks - $23.842B (40.12%)

DTC -$1.494B (2.51%)

Studios - $10.065B (16.93%)

- Theatrical - $4.303B (7.24%)

- Home Media - $1.647B (2.77%)

Parks/Consumer Products - $24.701B (41.56%)

 

2019

Total Revenue - $69.570B

Linear Networks - $29.544B (42.47%)

DTC - $3.347B (4.81%)

Studios - $11.127B (15.99%)

- Theatrical - $4.726B (6.79%)

- Home Media - $1.734B (2.49%)

Parks/Consumer Products - $26.225B (37.7%)

 

2020

Total Revenue - $65.388B

Linear Networks - $27.583B (42.18%)

DTC - $10.552B (16.14%)

Content Sales and Licensing - $10.977B (16.79%)

- Theatrical - $2.134B (3.26%)

- Home Media -$1.802B (2.76%)

Parks/Consumer Products - $17.038B (26.06%)

 

2021

Total Revenue - $67.418B

Linear Networks - $28.093B (41.67%)

DTC - $16.319B (24.21%)

Content Sales and Licensing - $7.346B (10.90%)

- Theatrical - $920m (1.36%)

- Home Media - $1.014B (1.50%)

Parks/Consumer Products - $16.552B (24.55%)

 

2022

Total Revenue  - $82.722B

Linear Networks - $28.436B  (34.27%)

DTC - $19.558B (23.64%)

Content Sales and Licensing - $8.416B (10.17%)

- Theatrical - $1.875B (2.27%)

- Home Media - $820m (0.99%)

Parks/Consumer Products - $28.705B (34.70%)

 

Linear Networks have held up well but will likely drop due to the above mentioned affiliate fees and a weak advertising market (that when it does come back may not return to strong levels on Pay TV [ESPN,FX Etc.] maybe even Broadcast TV [ABC]) DTC top line growth has been good although slower this most recent year due partially to exchange rates and also lack of Premier Access, worse UFC buys which wasn't enough to offset new spending which lead to some big losses. 

 

Theatrical more than doubled revenue over 2021 but is still behind 2020 (includes last calendar quarter of 2019 which had Frozen II and TROS) and way behind 2018/2019, I don't think it will reach those levels in 2023 either but should hopefully be better with Black Panther 2, Avatar 2, TLM, Indy 5, GotG 5 among other titles.

 

Home Media is awful and is now less than 1% of the companies revenue, which in a way isn't shocking when you look at how purchasing of physical media has decreased but given the better slate of theatrical I expected improved or at least flat sales, this quote from the report is telling "The decrease in home entertainment revenue was due to lower unit sales despite the benefit of more new release titles in the current year." That is not a good sign for future years and shows people are moving away from purchasing films at a re-accelerated pace. 

 

Parks and consumer products are the one super bright spot as they have made record revenue and that has lead to record profit as well. They might be challenged with a looming recession but I imagine they hold up fairly well in 2023. 

 

Overall the big challenge is the coming collapse of Linear Networks, we already had news yesterday of AMC downsizing as for them DTC revenue didn't offset linear losses (not to shocking for a smaller company) but the big companies will feel this as well. Disney is in a better place with DTC revenues at way over half of Linear Networks at their peak of $29.5B in 2019 but with profit in DTC still 18-24 months away and even then profit will be small this overlap of Pay TV collapse (and smaller profits very likely from that division) will bring some short to medium term pain. The same is true for Paramount, Comcast, WBD etc. although they're further behind in shifting revenues to DTC so they may be hit even harder. 

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You mean to tell me an obvious political stunt designed to prop up a stupid culture war in time for the mid-terms turned out to be an obvious political stunt designed to prop up a stupid culture war in time for the mid-terms after all? Shocking!

Edited by cookie
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27 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

Sourced back to an outlet called "The Cosmic Circus", which I understand from some googling is a new-ish outfit (little more than a year old, near as I can tell).  How credible are they and is there anything to be aware in regards to them?

Edited by Porthos
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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Sourced back to an outlet called "The Cosmic Circus", which I understand from some googling is a new-ish outfit (little more than a year old, near as I can tell).  How credible are they and is there anything to be aware in regards to them?

 

About as credible as any other nosebleeder Tweeters and this week's pop-up geek website... I.E. People choose what they want to believe, anyway... and these "scoops" are often so vague that, well...anything could happen...and often does, in production development, of course.  Any Tom, Dick, Harry, Susan, Angie could have told you that MARVEL/DISNEY is listening to the reception of "Phase 4" and will course-correct a bit...*especially* now with IGER back in control with his own vision.  It's pretty obvious stuff, and it's not like they haven't shifted around dates and projects before.   

Edited by Macleod
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5 hours ago, cookie said:

 

You mean to tell me an obvious political stunt designed to prop up a stupid culture war in time for the mid-terms turned out to be an obvious political stunt designed to prop up a stupid culture war in time for the mid-terms after all? Shocking!

One didn’t even need a crystal ball to see that this was the only logical ending to that whole ridiculous saga.

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8 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Sourced back to an outlet called "The Cosmic Circus", which I understand from some googling is a new-ish outfit (little more than a year old, near as I can tell).  How credible are they and is there anything to be aware in regards to them?

This source is talking about Disney+ shows not movies, MCU movies of phase 5 & 6 will be released as per schedule.

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