The Disney Thread | Happy 90th to Donald Duck!

[dobrevv]

https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/suits-nielsen-top-10-netflix-the-bear-1235675548/

based on nielsen secret invasion first ep did better than moon knight,ms marvel and shehulk 

[Water Bottle]

2 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

It’s failing with Guardians as one of the biggest box office receipts of the year? I wish I could fail as much as the MCU does. I bet that every other studio too.

 

One hit movie with multiple shows struggling to find viewers and the non-guardians movies seeing a decline in the box office with ant-man 3 being a notable disappointment. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

HOD cost 125-200m and oh boy the visuals and the CGI on the dragons and sets look incredible.

"A source close to the production told Variety it cost under $20M an episode."

 

That's just not an apples to apples comparison with "what UK tax credit data says about a budget." If/when someone figures out what project this was in the UK, you're obviously going to see that it had a higher than reported budget.

[ZattMurdock]

4 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

 

One hit movie with multiple shows struggling to find viewers and the non-guardians movies seeing a decline in the box office with ant-man 3 being a notable disappointment. 

Ant-Man 1 and 2 are some of the  smallest box office receipts for all the MCU, even if we take covid into consideration. Spider-Man: No Way Home was less than 2 years ago and made $2B while we were very much still in the pandemic. All you have is silly wishful thinking based on an Ant-Man film performing very much in range with all the other Ant-Man films.

 

And saying that "multiple shows (are) struggling" shows how ignorant you are about the whole situation. We don’t know how well or how bad these shows are doing.
 

Social media gets on fire and trending for every single episode of every single Marvel Studios, even the ones that a bunch of people fall for the Samba numbers - which isn’t traceable or reliable at all - and get this: a lot of times as much as Black Mirror or any of the big Netflix popular shows. Do we know how much people watch these shows? No. Is social media a valid gauge for this? Absolutely fucking not, piracy is also a thing. We don’t know how much people watch this shows. We don’t know how successful they are. And petty shit like you are doing here only favors studios, since what WGA and SAG-AFTRA biggest demand during the current strike is transparency on how well these shows are making. If you go to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA thread, you will find several writers and actors tweets talking about their residuals and how little they make; it’s doesn’t matter if it’s a She-Hulk screenwriter or several Gilmore Girls or Orange is the New Black actors; all of them have something in common: they receive absolutely shit for their work in these productions.

 

Disney+ has currently 157.8m subscribers. That’s the second biggest streaming service in the world. If they are "failing", it’s hard to explain how much Disney+ grew up as fast as they did since what they are is basically a big Marvel and Star Wars wallgarden, with Disney productions there in between. We here are like Charlie Brown trying to kick ball and falling waiting for streaming services to go away and they keep growing stronger. You and others keep saying shit like MCU is falling and meanwhile, WB is making their DC Studios in order to finally get their shared universe right. Mattel is considering their own shared world too. Because you liking this or not, Hollywood and big blockbusters today are about brands, and their power to bring people to movie theaters. If you don’t want to see movie theaters go the way of the opera, I’d advise to get down with the program. You might not like the alternative more than getting to see Marvel Studios and other brand films dominating the box office consistently throughout the years.

[ChipDerby]

Just a reminder, if Disney has 158 mil subscribers, at probably about $10/subscription, that's $1.5 billion/month. This is extra money that Disney did not have prior to the service.

[Bob Train]

6 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Just a reminder, if Disney has 158 mil subscribers, at probably about $10/subscription, that's $1.5 billion/month. This is extra money that Disney did not have prior to the service.

Uh...No way it's $10/subscription...Overseas it's a lot cheaper...In India premium costs, in dollars $3.64 at todays rates.

[Potiki]

7 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Just a reminder, if Disney has 158 mil subscribers, at probably about $10/subscription, that's $1.5 billion/month. This is extra money that Disney did not have prior to the service.

Global ARPU (average revenue per user) isn't even half that for Disney+ at $4.44 in the most recent quarter if you subtract the Hotstar (India and SEA) subs which makes $0.59 a month you get the Disney+ Core making $6.47, even if you only do domestic they make $7.14. 

 

Will they eventually get to $10 per sub, probably but still plenty of run way. 

 

If you look at overall streaming for Disney though they are making $5.5B and subtracting Hulu Live which is roughly $1.2B they are at about that figure of $1.4-1.5B a month. 

[ChipDerby]

US continues to get screwed on prices

[dudalb]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

Ant-Man 1 and 2 are some of the  smallest box office receipts for all the MCU, even if we take covid into consideration. Spider-Man: No Way Home was less than 2 years ago and made $2B while we were very much still in the pandemic. All you have is silly wishful thinking based on an Ant-Man film performing very much in range with all the other Ant-Man films.

 

And saying that "multiple shows (are) struggling" shows how ignorant you are about the whole situation. We don’t know how well or how bad these shows are doing.
 

Social media gets on fire and trending for every single episode of every single Marvel Studios, even the ones that a bunch of people fall for the Samba numbers - which isn’t traceable or reliable at all - and get this: a lot of times as much as Black Mirror or any of the big Netflix popular shows. Do we know how much people watch these shows? No. Is social media a valid gauge for this? Absolutely fucking not, piracy is also a thing. We don’t know how much people watch this shows. We don’t know how successful they are. And petty shit like you are doing here only favors studios, since what WGA and SAG-AFTRA biggest demand during the current strike is transparency on how well these shows are making. If you go to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA thread, you will find several writers and actors tweets talking about their residuals and how little they make; it’s doesn’t matter if it’s a She-Hulk screenwriter or several Gilmore Girls or Orange is the New Black actors; all of them have something in common: they receive absolutely shit for their work in these productions.

 

Disney+ has currently 157.8m subscribers. That’s the second biggest streaming service in the world. If they are "failing", it’s hard to explain how much Disney+ grew up as fast as they did since what they are is basically a big Marvel and Star Wars wallgarden, with Disney productions there in between. We here are like Charlie Brown trying to kick ball and falling waiting for streaming services to go away and they keep growing stronger. You and others keep saying shit like MCU is falling and meanwhile, WB is making their DC Studios in order to finally get their shared universe right. Mattel is considering their own shared world too. Because you liking this or not, Hollywood and big blockbusters today are about brands, and their power to bring people to movie theaters. If you don’t want to see movie theaters go the way of the opera, I’d advise to get down with the program. You might not like the alternative more than getting to see Marvel Studios and other brand films dominating the box office consistently throughout the years.

I think I prefer that to having no choice at the movies but which big budget action blockbuster to see.

You just don't get it. A lot of us are not shppy with nothing but franchise movies to choose from, and think the death of theater going as we know might be the more merciful ending.

 

Edited July 20, 2023 by dudalb

[dudalb]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I think I prefer that to having no choice at the movies but which big budget action blockbuster to see.

You just don't get it. A lot of us are not shppy with nothing but franchise movies to choose from, and think the death of theater going as we know might be the more merciful ending.

And, yes, I think you are wrong in thinking that "CBM Fatigue" does not exist.

 

 

[dudalb]

2 hours ago, Water Bottle said:

 

One hit movie with multiple shows struggling to find viewers and the non-guardians movies seeing a decline in the box office with ant-man 3 being a notable disappointment. 

But there is no such thing as CBM burnout among the GA. It;s all a myth. Or so a couple of posters here are saying....

[Water Bottle]

3 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Ant-Man 1 and 2 are some of the  smallest box office receipts for all the MCU, even if we take covid into consideration. Spider-Man: No Way Home was less than 2 years ago and made $2B while we were very much still in the pandemic. All you have is silly wishful thinking based on an Ant-Man film performing very much in range with all the other Ant-Man films.

 

And saying that "multiple shows (are) struggling" shows how ignorant you are about the whole situation. We don’t know how well or how bad these shows are doing.
 

Social media gets on fire and trending for every single episode of every single Marvel Studios, even the ones that a bunch of people fall for the Samba numbers - which isn’t traceable or reliable at all - and get this: a lot of times as much as Black Mirror or any of the big Netflix popular shows. Do we know how much people watch these shows? No. Is social media a valid gauge for this? Absolutely fucking not, piracy is also a thing. We don’t know how much people watch this shows. We don’t know how successful they are. And petty shit like you are doing here only favors studios, since what WGA and SAG-AFTRA biggest demand during the current strike is transparency on how well these shows are making. If you go to the WGA and SAG-AFTRA thread, you will find several writers and actors tweets talking about their residuals and how little they make; it’s doesn’t matter if it’s a She-Hulk screenwriter or several Gilmore Girls or Orange is the New Black actors; all of them have something in common: they receive absolutely shit for their work in these productions.

 

Disney+ has currently 157.8m subscribers. That’s the second biggest streaming service in the world. If they are "failing", it’s hard to explain how much Disney+ grew up as fast as they did since what they are is basically a big Marvel and Star Wars wallgarden, with Disney productions there in between. We here are like Charlie Brown trying to kick ball and falling waiting for streaming services to go away and they keep growing stronger. You and others keep saying shit like MCU is falling and meanwhile, WB is making their DC Studios in order to finally get their shared universe right. Mattel is considering their own shared world too. Because you liking this or not, Hollywood and big blockbusters today are about brands, and their power to bring people to movie theaters. If you don’t want to see movie theaters go the way of the opera, I’d advise to get down with the program. You might not like the alternative more than getting to see Marvel Studios and other brand films dominating the box office consistently throughout the years.

 

Thinking Hollywood is about the brands is why the studios feel they can screw over WGA/SAG members actually. I know, I know. That's a tough concept for you to get. Marvel consistently underpays VFX workers while demanding they worked harder and faster for a reason. It's not about the people. It's about the brands. They gotta deliver the next Marvel movie after all. 

 

I'd rather movie theaters go the way of opera than fight to only get bland, shallow CGI fests that keep trying to extend a story beyond it's natural lifespan because it's part of a "brand" that has lost all meaning. "See this movie to get hints about the next movie so that maybe five movies down the line there's a payoff but that payoff will come with hints for the next movies". Like give me a break. You enjoy that? Fine. I used to until Endgame wrapped up the universe for me. And now I want to get more from the big studios than just money grabs brand exploitations.

 

There will always be Marvel movies. Depending on ONLY brands has worked fine for Disney and it's starting to catch up to them. And now, pointing this out doesn't hurt SAG/WGA. A big reason for the strike is how the industry has changed. And yeah, blockbusters being only brands now has been a negative change for the industry.  A more healthy balance between sequels and original big budget movies would ACTUALLY help SAG/WGA.

 

(and for the record movie theaters going the way of the opera would not be the end of movie theaters since opera is still kicking around)

[ZattMurdock]

1 hour ago, dudalb said:

I think I prefer that to having no choice at the movies but which big budget action blockbuster to see.

You just don't get it. A lot of us are not shppy with nothing but franchise movies to choose from, and think the death of theater going as we know might be the more merciful ending.

 

I get it; this is some elitist shit. I think the best about movie theaters is actually the popular experience, even from films I don’t personally enjoy, especially blockbusters. We just don’t see eye to eye on this and that’s fine. Back to Valorant.

[Porthos]

4 hours ago, dobrevv said:

https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/suits-nielsen-top-10-netflix-the-bear-1235675548/

based on nielsen secret invasion first ep did better than moon knight,ms marvel and shehulk 

 

Sorta kinda.

 

See, (one of) the problem(s) with how Nielsen reports numbers is that they report total minutes watched for streaming shows.  Which would be fine, except steaming shows are not the same length, even within a series.

 

So a show like She-Hulk which was far closer to a 30 min dramedy gets screwed compared to a more 40 min - 50 min standard show like, The Mandalorian.  And The Mandalorian gets (relatively) screwed compared to the 55 min - 65 min shows like Rings of Power and House of the Dragon.

 

And then there is the minor inconvenience that Nielsen does not break down viewing numbers by episode for streaming shows.

 

Anyway, ep 1 of Secret Invasion was more or less on par with MCU shows like Hawkeye and Moon Knight but below things like She-Hulkand SW's The Book of Boba Fett.

 

Can see the latest chart of an admittedly not-great-but-probably-best-we-have-with-public-tools look at various streaming shows here:

 

 

[LegionWrex]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

Sorta kinda.

 

See, (one of) the problem(s) with how Nielsen reports numbers is that they report total minutes watched for streaming shows.  Which would be fine, except steaming shows are not the same length, even within a series.

 

So a show like She-Hulk which was far closer to a 30 min dramedy gets screwed compared to a more 40 min - 50 min standard show like, The Mandalorian.  And The Mandalorian gets (relatively) screwed compared to the 55 min - 65 min shows like Rings of Power and House of the Dragon.

 

And then there is the minor inconvenience that Nielsen does not break down viewing numbers by episode for streaming shows.

 

Anyway, ep 1 of Secret Invasion was more or less on par with MCU shows like Hawkeye and Moon Knight but below things like She-Hulkand SW's The Book of Boba Fett.

 

Can see the latest chart of an admittedly not-great-but-probably-best-we-have-with-public-tools look at various streaming shows here:

 

 

Well said. I think this is why disclosure of streaming data is a big deal at the moment and why I'm fully on board with it. Sure, we can get a good metric from stuff like Nielsen but it's methods aren't perfect.

Edited July 21, 2023 by LegionWrex

[Dominic Draper]

7 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

It’s failing with Guardians as one of the biggest box office receipts of the year? I wish I could fail as much as the MCU does. I bet that every other studio too.

The fact that people have to use guardians 3 as their proof against fatigue, a film that made less than its previous film, speaks volumes.

[ZattMurdock]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Sorta kinda.

 

See, (one of) the problem(s) with how Nielsen reports numbers is that they report total minutes watched for streaming shows.  Which would be fine, except steaming shows are not the same length, even within a series.

 

So a show like She-Hulk which was far closer to a 30 min dramedy gets screwed compared to a more 40 min - 50 min standard show like, The Mandalorian.  And The Mandalorian gets (relatively) screwed compared to the 55 min - 65 min shows like Rings of Power and House of the Dragon.

 

And then there is the minor inconvenience that Nielsen does not break down viewing numbers by episode for streaming shows.

 

Anyway, ep 1 of Secret Invasion was more or less on par with MCU shows like Hawkeye and Moon Knight but below things like She-Hulkand SW's The Book of Boba Fett.

 

Can see the latest chart of an admittedly not-great-but-probably-best-we-have-with-public-tools look at various streaming shows here:

 

 

Extremely well said. And I agree on the bold very much so about She-Hulk and Secret Invasion. I find it Moon Knight and Secret Invasion very similar as well because both feature extremely talented actors in a show that has some very inspired ideas not executed that well. Moon Knight saving grace is that Moon Knight themselves are an amazing addition to the MCU. And I actually really dig Hawkeye and that show made me care about the MCU Hawkeye more than I thought it was ever possible.Kate Bishop and Yelena stole that show though.

[LegionWrex]

4 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

Extremely well said. And I agree on the bold very much so about She-Hulk and Secret Invasion. I find it Moon Knight and Secret Invasion very similar as well because both feature extremely talented actors in a show that has some very inspired ideas not executed that well. Moon Knight saving grace is that Moon Knight themselves are an amazing addition to the MCU. And I actually really dig Hawkeye and that show made me care about the MCU Hawkeye more than I thought it was ever possible.Kate Bishop and Yelena stole that show though.

Moon Knight is strong to me cause of some of the more inspired directorial choices going on with it. Lots of mirrors, reflections, puddles, etc. throughout that emphasize the duality of the character. It's a bit wonky sometimes in the story department but I'm fine with that simply cause it was one of the more entertaining week-to-week MCU shows to me.

[ZattMurdock]

7 hours ago, dobrevv said:

https://variety.com/2023/tv/news/suits-nielsen-top-10-netflix-the-bear-1235675548/

based on nielsen secret invasion first ep did better than moon knight,ms marvel and shehulk 

Haven’t seen this before. 
 

 

And that’s why we need to come to terms how unreliable the current guesswork with streaming is. The first thing that people got to start the whole failing Secret Invasion show non sense was fucking Samba numbers. Nielsen is obviously more trustworthy than Samba, but just like Porthos has explained, we can’t really gauge that by minutes. 

If people didn’t jump the gun on Secret Invasion, would even the narrative that Secret Invasion doesn’t have a good audience even make sense? I don’t think so. Would mean anything though? Nope. Because we don’t really know the data. Nielsen is a better thermometer than Samba, but still not good enough. Hence why the actors and writers striking and demanding transparency on that is so important.

[von Kenni]

5 hours ago, Potiki said:

Global ARPU (average revenue per user) isn't even half that for Disney+ at $4.44 in the most recent quarter if you subtract the Hotstar (India and SEA) subs which makes $0.59 a month you get the Disney+ Core making $6.47, even if you only do domestic they make $7.14. 

 

Will they eventually get to $10 per sub, probably but still plenty of run way. 

 

If you look at overall streaming for Disney though they are making $5.5B and subtracting Hulu Live which is roughly $1.2B they are at about that figure of $1.4-1.5B a month. 

 

And we're talking about revenue without subtracting the cost side yet and it can be brutal. My insights to that are about 7 years old but just the HD and 4K data streaming costs are huge and thats not all. So you can start to take dollars out of monthly  ARPU right away.

 

But the real suckerpunch is that when Disney produces marvel series or movies and puts it on Disney+ it can't get anymore outside broadcasting rights revenue,  or in very limited capacity in countries where there isn't Disney+ or much much later with much much less revenue.

 

Those right fees need to be now covered by those small profits of subs when the costs are taken out. And that's why Disney+ is making big losses and that's why e.g. broadcasting right fees from Disney+ of $180m or some other crazy number might make movie like TLM breakeven in film division side while increasing streaming losses and by that way ultimately whole Disney losses.

 

It's not that complicated math but we just don't know all the exact numbers. Though if I took Disney's public financial statements and took a day I could probably answer many of these questions with accuracy but I would think that someone has done that already.