Baumer's Summer 2014 Game: Top 7 Domestic Opening Weekends / Top 5 Worldwide Weekends

[JJ-8]

no need for an update this week as domestically the next film that will impact the top 7 is Apes and worldwide, nothing even earnt enough over the weekend to make the top 5.

[JJ-8]

I'm kind of confused why the WW openings are worth so many points.  Everything else is worth 30,000 points for the closest prediction (dom OW, dom grosses, OS grosses) but WW openings is 125,000?? That's like more than quadruple...

 

fair question .. the figures are all as per Baumer's original post:

 

Wordwide Weekends Question:

 

baumer, on 29 Mar 2014 - 11:01 AM, said:

International Flair #2:

What five films will have the best weekends World Wide? I realize some films open day and date, and others do not. This is why it is now just best weekend.

For every film in the top 5 you call correctly, you get 25,000 points.

For every film you call incorrectly, you lose 10,000 points.

If you call 3 of the top 5 correctly, regardless of order, you get a 20,000 point bonus.

If you call all 5 correctly, regardless of order, you get a 75,000 point bonus

 

For the gross, predict what the films gross for the weekend.  Here is the point structure.

 

Guess within 50-60 million:  10,000

Guess within 40-49.99 million:  20,000

Guess within 30-39.999 million:  30,000

Guess within 20-29.999 million:  40,000

Guess within 10-19.999 million:  75,000

Guess within 0-9.999 mill:  100,000 

 

There will be no point deductions for missing the gross by more than 60 million.

 

 

 

the points i use an almagamation of the gross points and whether it's in the top 5 WW weekends...... 

 

hence if it's in the top 5 and you are within 10m then you get 100k (gross) + 25k (in top 5) = 125k

[baumer]

I'm kind of confused why the WW openings are worth so many points.  Everything else is worth 30,000 points for the closest prediction (dom OW, dom grosses, OS grosses) but WW openings is 125,000?? That's like more than quadruple...

 

Because there is no rhyme or reason to the game.  I just assign what I feel like.  I felt like rewarding more points this year to the good international predictions.  Next year, that might change.

[iceroll]

Because there is no rhyme or reason to the game.  I just assign what I feel like.  I felt like rewarding more points this year to the good international predictions.  Next year, that might change.

Ok haha. I just think that they'll affect the final rankings a lot more than any other element of the game. Probably more than all the weekly questions/SOTMs combined.

[Plain Old Tele]

Because there is no rhyme or reason to the game.  I just assign what I feel like.  I felt like rewarding more points this year to the good international predictions.  Next year, that might change.

Unfortunately for me, I really suck at international predictions.

[baumer]

So do I tele.

[Punishment]

Yea, the international points will play a big role in the final standings this year; I stink at predicting international numbers

[JJ-8]

sorry guys gonna be few days before i get some updates done. im without a pc at the moment.

[JJ-8]

Edited July 24, 2014 by Jajang and Back Again

[JJ-8]

Update Domestic - 

 

* Dawn now added (replaces Dragon 2 in the Top 7 OW)

* Dragon 2 has now been updated to reflect the fact it's not making the top 7

 

oh and just because I wanted to:

 

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes:

 

Actual OW - 72.611m

jajang - 72.5m

 

 

damn that was close!

[JJ-8]

No update to the worldwide weekends to date... nothing has come close since Transformers to break into the top 5.  in fact that may be the end result...(we need a worldwide weekend of 170m or more to make the top 5 now - which unless GOTG does it somehow, we ain't seeing so i'm thinking the top 5 is resolved.. 

 

Once GOTG opens domestically, i believe we can score both the domestic OW and worldwide weekends charts as no one else predicted anything else breaking into the top 7 or 5 and frankly.. unless i'm wrong i'm doubting anything else post GOTG cracks 50m domestically on opening weekend and 170m worldwide.

[JJ-8]

No update this - nothing has changed. I'll do a full summary after GOTG opens.

[JJ-8]

No update this - nothing has changed. I'll do a full summary after GOTG opens.

 

Update is coming soon......

[JJ-8]

Edited August 5, 2014 by Jajang and Back Again

[JJ-8]

And i believe that is the top 7 opening weekends of the summer done.  I don't see anything else cracking 69m before the end of august on opening weekend.  

 

I'll do the worldwide also shortly but i also believe the top 5 weekends are set in concrete now.

[JJ-8]

Current Worldwide Weekends Top 5 Standings

* assumes highest weekend for each movie... a movie cannot appear twice in the list.

* Highest weekend for each film is review on a weekly basis

 

As of August 4th, 2014:

 

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction (26th to 29th June) - 302.138m

2. X-Men: Days of Future Past (23rd to 25th May) - 262.866m

3. The Amazing Spider-man 2 (2nd to 4th May) - 208.989m

4. Godzilla (2014) (16th to 18th May) - 196.588m

5. Maleficent (30th May to 1st June) - 170.031m

 

If your prediction is GOLD, then you are within $10 MILLION and the film is in the Top 5. You get 125,000 points!

If your prediction is BLUE, then you are within $20 MILLION and the film is in the Top 5. You get 100,000 points!
If your prediction is PINK, then you are within $30 MILLION and the film is in the Top 5. You get 65,000 points!

If your prediction is GREEN then you are within $40 MILLION and the film is in the Top 5. You get 55,000 points! 

If your prediction is BROWN then you are within $50 MILLION and the film is in the Top 5. You get 45,000 points! 

If your prediction is GRAY then you are within $60 MILLION and the film is in the Top 5. You get 35,000 points! 

If your prediction is BLACK then the film is in the Top 5. You get 25,000 points!

If your prediction is RED then the films biggest WW Weekend isn't in the Top 5. You lose 10,000 points!

 

All Users submitted a top 5 Worldwide Weekends for Preseason.

 

MAY
THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2 (51/62)

 

Neo - 275m

spaghetti - 235m

RhyneOh1040 - 220m

Actual Weekend (2nd to 4th May) - 208.989m

The Winter Soldier - 200m

Mulder - 200m

Kitik - 195m

mahnamahna - 192.7m

Film - 190m

Gizmo - 190m

Jay Hollywood - 190m

Alfredstellar - 189m

A song of iceroll and fire - 185m

24 Lost - 185m

Dipper - 181.75m

druv10 - 180m

Mattrek - 180m

darkelf - 180m

Claire Hol7 - 175.5m

Numbers - 175m

JohnnY - 175m

nerdygeek - 172m

kayumanggi - 170m

punishment - 170m

Simionski - 170m

Gokai Red - 168m

chasmmi - 166m

Dar - 165m

Grim22 - 165m

Movieman89 - 165m

MGS - 160m

Stingray - 160m

Cedar - 160m

Empire - 158m

Goffe - 158m

Fern - 158m

bcf26 - 157m

Baumer - 155.7m

Ed - 155m

telemachos - 148m

cmaster - 145m

Olive - 145m

grey ghost - 140m

LAGuy - 140m

Jake Gittes - 139m

cjohn - 137m

MeanGirlsFilms - 135.3m

glassfairy - 135m

Jajang - 124.4m

narniadis - NULL (did not submit $ - 2nd)

Junkshop - NULL (did not submit $ - 3rd)

 

GODZILLA (2014) (58/62)

 

AndyLL - 270m

A song of iceroll and fire - 250m

RhyneOh1040 - 245m

Gizmo - 240m

Simionski - 240m

Moviegeek - 230m

VanAuger - 225m

Film - 206m

Alfredstellar - 205m

Schumacher - 204m

Jay Hollywood - 202m

Empire - 202m

Neo - 201m

Actual Weekend (16th to 18th May) - 196.588m

mahnamahna - 195.6m

chasmmi - 194m

Kitik - 190m

Chewy - 190m

Jandrew - 190m

nerdygeek - 188m

Numbers - 186m

Cedar - 185m

Claire Hol7 - 182.95m

The Winter Soldier - 180m

Mulder - 180m

telemachos - 180m

Jake Gittes - 180m

cjohn - 180m

Movieman89 - 175m

Stingray - 175m

The Panda - 175m

Goffe - 170m

spaghetti - 165m

kayumanggi - 165m

cmaster - 165m

Dipper - 164.88m

Jajang - 162.7m

druv10 - 160m

darkelf - 160m

JohnnY - 160m

Grim22 - 160m

Olive - 160m

Damien Roc - 160m

24 Lost - 159m

punishment - 155m

grey ghost - 155m

Mattrek - 150m

bcf26 - 150m

Tylerdurden - 140m

Baumer - 135.6m

Gokai Red - 130m

Fern - 126m

MGS - 125m

Ed - 123m

Blankments - 123m

Jesus of Suburbia - 123m

glassfairy - 100m

Junkshop - NULL (did not submit $ - 1st)

 

X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST (60/62)

 

VanAuger - 325m

Moviegeek - 300m

Actual Weekend (23rd to 25th May) - 262.866m

spaghetti - 260m

AndyLL - 250m

Neo - 246m

Schumacher - 243m

Alfredstellar - 242m

Jay Hollywood - 240m

RhyneOh1040 - 235m

Film - 234m

A song of iceroll and fire - 230m

nerdygeek - 226m

Gizmo - 225m

Cedar - 220m

JohnnY - 220m

Numbers - 211m

Chewy - 210m

Jandrew - 210m

kayumanggi - 205m

Claire Hol7 - 200.65m

Simionski - 200m

cjohn - 200m

Stingray - 200m

LAGuy - 200m

Goffe - 195m

Grim22 - 195m

Olive - 195m

Dipper - 192.1m

darkelf - 190m

Gokai Red - 190m

Kitik - 185m

The Winter Soldier - 185m

Tylerdurden - 185m

Baumer - 185m

chasmmi - 184m

Empire - 182m

Movieman89 - 180m

Jake Gittes - 178m

Mulder - 175m

Mattrek - 175m

bcf26 - 175m

Ed - 175m

grey ghost - 169m

telemachos - 165m

Fern - 164m

Jajang - 162.3m

The Panda - 150m

cmaster - 150m

druv10 - 150m

Damien Roc - 150m

glassfairy - 150m

24 Lost - 148.61m

MeanGirlsFilms - 147.8m

Blankments - 142m

Za Rukaio - 140m

Dar - 135m

Jesus of Suburbia - 130m

narniadis - NULL (did not submit $ - 3rd)

Junkshop - NULL (did not submit $ - 4th)

 

MALEFICENT (8/62)

 

A song of iceroll and fire - 200m

AndyLL - 200m

Actual Weekend (30th May to 1st June) - 170.031m

Film - 156m

Simionski - 145m

Cedar - 131m

Jajang - 119.2m

Gizmo - 110m

 

EDGE OF TOMORROW (1/62)

 

Actual Weekend (6th to 8th June) - 109.76m

Damien Roc - 105m

 

HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2 (47/62)

 

Neo - 227m

Tylerdurden - 205m

VanAuger - 200m

RhyneOh1040 - 200m

Chewy - 195m

Jandrew - 195m

The Panda - 185m

AndyLL - 180m

Moviegeek - 180m

Kitik - 180m

Jake Gittes - 179m

Olive - 175m

glassfairy - 175m

punishment - 175m

MGS - 175m

Dipper - 170.85m

telemachos - 170m

Alfredstellar - 169m

nerdygeek - 166m

Jay Hollywood - 165m

The Winter Soldier - 165m

druv10 - 165m

mahnamahna - 163.1m

24 Lost - 157.82m

spaghetti - 155m

Claire Hol7 - 150.25m

Mulder - 150m

Gokai Red - 147m

Fern - 145m

Za Rukaio - 145m

bcf26 - 144m

Damien Roc - 135m

Schumacher - 135m

kayumanggi - 135m

chasmmi - 135m

Dar - 130m

Empire - 128m

Goffe - 125m

MeanGirlsFilms - 120.5m

LAGuy - 120m

darkelf - 120m

Blankments - 112m

Jesus of Suburbia - 112m

cjohn - 110m

Actual Weekend (13th to 15th June) - 73.448m

Junkshop - NULL (did not submit $ - 2nd)

narniadis - NULL (did not submit $ - 5th)

 

TRANSFORMERS: AGE OF EXTINCTION (62/62)

 

Stingray - 415m

Neo - 380m

VanAuger - 375m

spaghetti - 365m

AndyLL - 350m

A song of iceroll and fire - 343m

Alfredstellar - 342m

Moviegeek - 340m

RhyneOh1040 - 325m

mahnamahna - 324.2m

Gokai Red - 319m

Jake Gittes - 316m

Simionski - 310m

Chewy - 307m

Jandrew - 307m

Kitik - 306m

Estimated Weekend - 302.138m

Dipper - 302m

24 Lost - 300m

Mattrek - 300m

Baumer - 300m

Tylerdurden - 300m

LAGuy - 290m

kayumanggi - 285m

Film - 284m

JohnnY - 280m

telemachos - 275m

Fern - 270m

Claire Hol7 - 265.75m

cmaster - 260m

Olive - 255m

The Winter Soldier - 250m

Mulder - 250m

Movieman89 - 250m

MGS - 250m

Cedar - 250m

Grim22 - 245m

The Panda - 245m

nerdygeek - 234.7m

druv10 - 225m

Ed - 225m

glassfairy - 225m

Za Rukaio - 225m

Jay Hollywood - 224m

Numbers - 224m

Empire - 222m

Damien Roc - 220m

chasmmi - 215m

Goffe - 215m

cjohn - 215m

Jesus of Suburbia - 215m

grey ghost - 212m

Jajang - 205.8m

MeanGirlsFilms - 200.3m

darkelf - 200m

punishment - 200m

Gizmo - 195m

Blankments - 195m

bcf26 - 190m

Dar - 185m

Schumacher - 170m

narniadis - NULL (did not submit $ - 5th)

Junkshop - NULL (did not submit $ - 1st)

 

DAWN OF THE PLANET OF THE APES (24/62)

 

VanAuger - 250m

Moviegeek - 185m

The Panda - 170m

Tylerdurden - 150m

MGS - 150m

punishment - 145m

Dar - 145m

Baumer - 140.8m

mahnamahna - 137.8m

cmaster - 130m

Movieman89 - 130m

Grim22 - 130m

grey ghost - 130m

Numbers - 126m

Mattrek - 125m

MeanGirlsFilms - 116.2m

Za Rukaio - 112m

LAGuy - 110m

Schumacher - 107m

Actual Weekend - 103.2813m

Jesus of Suburbia - 102m

Blankments - 102m

Stingray - 100m

JohnnY - 95m

narniadis - NULL (did not submit $ - 2nd)

 

 

GUARDIAN'S OF THE GALAXY (4/62)

 

Actual Weekend - 160.7209m

Chewy - 135m

Jandrew - 135m

Za Rukaio - 115m

Ed - 112m

 

 

[JJ-8]

ok.  just give me a few minutes but i'm going to post some preliminary points for the domestic top 7.  understand this is only preliminary until Baumer finalises it but as I've already noted, i don't see any other films making the top 7 OW at this point so i believe this can be scored now or least a preliminary score.

[JJ-8]

Preliminary Scores - Domestic Top 7 Opening Weekends

 

The Top 7 OW Weekends are (As of August 4th, 2014),

 

1. Transformers: Age of Extinction - 100.038m

2. Guardian's of the Galaxy - 94.321m

3. Godzilla (2014) - 93.188m

4. The Amazing Spider-man 2 - 91.608m

5. X-Men: Days of Future Past - 90.824m

6. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes - 72.611m

7. Maleficent - 69.431m

 

The top 7 is now very unlikely to change as no other films this summer are expected to open above 50m.

 

The Scores:

(Calculated based upon the original post by Baumer)

 

Gross Score = Total score across your 7 predicted films against the grosses made on OW

Position Score = +15k if guessed correct position, 10k if it's in the top 7, -7k if it misses the top 7

# Correct = +75k >5 correct; +150k all 7 correct and no one got all 7 btw  

 

User - Gross Score + Position Score + #Correct Score (# Correct) = Total

 

24 Lost - 25k + 58k + 75k(6) = 158k

A song of iceroll and fire - 55k + 58k + 75k(6) = 188k

Alfredstellar - 40k + 68k + 75k(6) = 183k

AndyLL - 80k + 58k + 75k(6) = 213k

Baumer - 65k + 41k + 75k(5) = 181k

bcf26 - 20k + 63k + 75k(6) = 158k

Blankments - 50k + 36k + 75k(5) = 161k

Cedar - 60k + 63k + 75k(6) = 198k

chasmmi - 75k + 68k + 75k(6) = 218k

Chewy - 45k + 58k + 75k(6) = 178k

cjohn - 45k + 63k + 75k(6) = 183k

Claire Hol7 - 65k + 68k + 75k(6) = 208k

cmaster - 70k + 68k + 75k(6) = 213k

Dar - 25k + 51k + 75k(5) = 151k

darkelf - 60k + 68k + 75k(6) = 203k

Dipper - 65k + 63k + 75k(6) = 203k

druv10 - 100k + 58k + 75k(6) = 233k

Ed - 65k + 63k + 75k(6) = 203k

Empire - 65k + 68k + 75k(6) = 208k

Fern - 60k + 58k + 75k(6) = 193k

Film - 55k + 63k + 75k(6) = 193k

Gizmo - 45k + 63k + 75k(6) = 183k

glassfairy - 30k + 51k + 75k(5) = 156k

Goffe - 75k + 53k + 75k(6) = 203k

Gokai Red - 35k + 58k + 75k(6) = 168k

grey ghost - 60k + 63k + 75k(6) = 198k

Grim22 - 50k + 63k + 75k(6) = 188k

jajang - 50k + 63k + 75k(6) = 188k

Jake Gittes - 65k + 46k + 75k(5) = 186k

Jandrew - 45k + 63k + 75k(6) = 183k

Jay Hollywood - 85k + 53k + 75k(6) = 213k

JohnnY - 65k + 63k + 75k(6) = 203k

kayumanggi - 65k + 63k + 75k(6) = 203k

Kitik - 15k + 41k + 75k(5) = 131k

LAGuy - 75k + 41k + 75k(5) = 191k

mahnamahma - 75k + 73k + 75k(6) = 223k

Mattrek - 60k + 58k + 75k(6) = 193k

MeanGirlsFilms - 50k + 63k + 75k(6) = 188k

Moviegeek - 70k + 63k + 75k(6) = 208k

Movieman89 - 70k + 73k + 75k(6) = 218k

narniadis - 55k + 58k + 75k(6) = 188k

Neo - 20k + 63k + 75k(6) = 158k

nerdygeek - 55k + 53k + 75k(6) = 183k

Numbers - 60k + 58k + 75k(6) = 193k

Olive - 80k + 68k + 75k(6) = 223k

punishment - 75k + 78k + 75k(6) = 228k

Rhyne0h1040 - 55k + 63k + 75k(6) = 193k

Schumacher - 75k + 41k + 75k(5) = 191k

Simionski - 45k + 58k + 75k(6) = 178k

spaghetti - 45k + 58k + 75k(6) = 178k

Telemachos - 75k + 68k + 75k(6) = 218k

The Panda - 65k + 56k + 75k(5) = 196k

The Stingray - 50k + 63k + 75k(6) = 188k

Tylerdurden - -70k + 53k + 75k(6) = 58k

VanAuger - -70k + 53k + 75k(6) = 58k

Za Rukaio - -70k + 58k + 75k(6) = 63k

 

The users below did not submit a complete top 7 (or didn't submit anything), I have chosen to score as follows:

1. for each film not submitted ~ -7k for position

2. for each film not submitted ~ -10k for gross

 

Damien Roc - 15k + 24k + 0k(4) = 39k ** Damien only submitted the top 5 (lost for 2 films)

Jesus of Suburbia - 50k + 41k + 75k(5) = 166k ** Did not list $ for 22JS (only impacts gross)

Junkshop - -70k + 46k + 75k(5) = 51k ** Listed positions only (only impacts gross)

MGS - -70k + -49k + 0k(0) = -119k ** Did not submit a Top 7 (lost for all 7)

Mulder - -70k + -49k + 0k(0) = -119k ** Did not submit a Top 7 (lost for all 7)

The Winter Soldier - -70k + -49k + 0k(0) = -119k ** Did not submit a Top 7 (lost for all 7)

 

(I'll leave it up to Baumer on how he will score the users listed)

 

ONCE AGAIN THESE SCORES ARE ONLY PRELIMINARY AND FINAL SCORES ARE UP TO BAUMER AS ALWAYS

[druv10]

Awesome job, Jajang. 

 

Looks like I got the highest score. 

[Mattrek]

Most are in the 190-220k range. Pretty consistent surprisingly.