Can January/February & September/October End The Dumping Ground Off Season Cursed? I Hope So

[Robot308]

i just have faith for the future

[Robot308]

the funny thing is summer is the new wet spot for low budget horror films

[Robot308]

that and january

[Robot308]

Late August to September is more of a dumping Ground. Argo and Gravity have changed October 

that & Taken 2

[AniNate]

October is definitively an Oscar bait month. Big movies have been released there and done well on a consistent basis.

 

The thing with January is that even though a lot of the "new" films are crap, it's also when quite a bit of Oscar bait goes wide. For all intents and purposes those movies are being released that month as well, and they mostly do pretty well.

Edited May 23, 2014 by tribefan695

[The Panda]

I think they will start adding more serious adult flicks to October after the success of Gravity, Captain Phillips, and Argo.

 

Certain months and times I think will stay similar to how they are.  The Summer will always be a blockbuster prime spot because so many people are on vacations, kids are out of school, etc.  It's the same for Winter holidays, when people are out of school and work they are more likely to go see a movie.  That doesn't mean they won't, but not in the rush factor numbers that happen for a lot of summer movies.

 

If you want to release a tentpole in a non-summer/holiday month you need the right movie during the right period of time.  October isn't a great time for young adult/kids movies because of school being so fresh off the bat and all of the friday night football games, unless it's a horror movie near Halloween, but it's a prime spot for adult entertainment, you just need a good movie that can garner some legs.  (So many examples of adult movies working with leggy runs in September/October.  It's a great place to put some Oscar contenders)

 

January is typically a bad month because people are trying to get back into the schedule of work and school post break, but with Oscar nominations it works for that, plus MLK weekend has proven to be a good time to release movies.

 

Early February has also proven to be a good spot because of Valentine's day weekend, movie's are a popular date choice. 

 

March and April are good for Spring Break and Easter Holidays, because of the staggered nature of these though it allows for a good number of early tentpoles, but they aren't strong enough to sustain a lot.

 

When it comes down to it though, even if you can get some hits in April or October it doesn't mean those months can sustain lots of tentpoles like June or July.  Studios need to be careful when placing movies in these months, they can support a couple big hits, but that doesn't mean they are prime months to release your tentpoles (especially risky ones).

[eddyxx]

i just have faith for the future

 

 

that and january

 

 

that & Taken 2

 

 

the funny thing is summer is the new wet spot for low budget horror films

 

 

This reads like a chat room.

[lilmac]

this thread is so confusing....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2014 by lilmac

[Robot308]

October is looking better every year

[DAJK]

Next January, we get a "big" film (that doesn't really look like crap) Tak3n opening not on MLK Weekend.

 

February we are getting big films like Jupiter Ascending and Fifty Shades (the latter is guranteed to be big) also some "smaller" films that could also pull decent to big numbers such as Seventh Son, SpongeBob, and Secret Service.

 

April is looking like the "summer blockbuster preview month" where we get 1-2 big films that basically whet out appetite for the "official" summer season. This year it was Cap 2, next year it's Fast 7, 2016 has Huntsman and 2017 has Pacific Rim 2.

 

August (early to middle August at least) I think will become an extension of what July is now. Guardians and Turtles anyone...? 2015 has Fantastic 4, Goosebumps and Man From U.N.C.L.E. 2016 has a DC film and Spectral.

 

September can have 1-3 bigger hits. Usually there's a Sony Animated film, and an action film. September is also where the Maze Runner sequels are going, which can do 300+WW. Also 2015 has Hotel Transylvania 2 and Everest.

 

October: sure, it's Oscar bait month. But there are some hits, such as Gone Girl. We also have Fury coming up, and even to an extent, Dracula Untold (whether is does good numbers or not, studios are still willing to put a big budget tentpole here like Gravity last year). 2015 has St. James Place, Conjuring 2, Jungle Book etc.

 

Bottom line? I guess it's that is doesn't matter where a movie is scheduled. If it looks appealing, it can succeed in any month,

[Maxmoser3]

This October could end up being positive

[Jandrew]

Imo, September and October will always be September and October. I think we'll start getting more Oscar contenders in October, but I dont see it becoming a blockbuster month, at all. February will get more animated movies, but its not like they all will do Lego Movie numbers. And MLK weekend will become prime spot, the rest should still be shit.

I also think April is becoming the new August. I feel like studios will start moving big summer releases to April and leave August to the lesser summer films, kinda like they do now. August is never really anything special imo anyway. Any month could work for a movie with the right tools, but I think the formula for now will stick to status quo, except more Oscars in October, more animation in February, and MLK holiday. And April > August.

I shat on August so hard...

[kitik]

Good OWs for Gone Girl and Annabelle, though as you can see by this chart, nothing really revolutionary.

 

Though actually I suppose it's worth mentioning that they both opened on the same weekend. That actually probably is a pretty impressive feat:

 

 

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Opening*	% of Total	Theaters	Average	Total Gross^	Date**
1	Gravity	WB	$55,785,112	20.4%	3,575	$15,604	$274,092,705	10/4/13
2	Paranormal Activity 3	Par.	$52,568,183	50.5%	3,321	$15,829	$104,028,807	10/21/11
3	Jackass 3-D	Par.	$50,353,641	43.0%	3,081	$16,343	$117,229,692	10/15/10
4	Taken 2	Fox	$49,514,769	35.4%	3,661	$13,525	$139,854,287	10/5/12
5	Scary Movie 3	Dim.	$48,113,770	43.7%	3,505	$13,727	$110,003,217	10/24/03
6	Shark Tale	DW	$47,604,606	29.6%	4,016	$11,853	$160,861,908	10/1/04
7	High School Musical 3: Senior Year	BV	$42,030,184	46.4%	3,623	$11,601	$90,559,416	10/24/08
8	Paranormal Activity 2	Par.	$40,678,424	48.0%	3,216	$12,649	$84,752,907	10/22/10
9	The Grudge	Sony	$39,128,715	35.5%	3,245	$12,058	$110,359,362	10/22/04
10	Gone Girl	Fox	$37,513,109	100.0%	3,014	$12,446	$37,513,109	10/3/14
11	Annabelle	WB (NL)	$37,134,255	100.0%	3,185	$11,659	$37,134,255	10/3/14
12	Red Dragon	Uni.	$36,540,945	39.2%	3,357	$10,885	$93,149,898	10/4/02
13	Couples Retreat	Uni.	$34,286,740	31.4%	3,000	$11,429	$109,204,945	10/9/09
14	Puss in Boots	P/DW	$34,077,439	22.8%	3,952	$8,623	$149,260,504	10/28/11
15	Saw III	LGF	$33,610,391	41.9%	3,167	$10,612	$80,238,724	10/27/06
16	Where the Wild Things Are	WB	$32,695,407	42.3%	3,735	$8,754	$77,233,467	10/16/09
17	Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa	Par.	$32,055,177	31.4%	3,336	$9,609	$102,003,019	10/25/13
18	Saw IV	LGF	$31,756,764	50.2%	3,183	$9,976	$63,300,095	10/26/07
19	Saw II	Lions	$31,725,652	36.4%	2,949	$10,758	$87,039,965	10/28/05
20	Saw V	LGF	$30,053,954	53.0%	3,060	$9,822	$56,746,769	10/24/08

 

[mahnamahna]

Well this October is looking bright so far.. Birdman is a wild-card. Could become a hit, could not... will likely make most of its money in November/December. 

1. Gone Girl: $180 million 
2. Fury: $140 million 
3. Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, Very Bad, No Good Day: $115 million 
4. Annabelle: $95 million 
5. Ouija: $75 million
6. The Judge: $70 million 
7. The Best of Me: $60 million 

Next October is looking even better IMO

 

The Jungle Book, London Has Fallen, The Walk, Vacation, St. James Place, Crimson Peak, The Conjuring 2 - all potential $75 million+ grossers. 

 

Solid start to the 4th qtr. 

[Jonwo]

I'm surprised not more animated films are released in October as its proven to be a good month for releasing them. Sony has already claimed late September so perhaps Paramount or WB should release their films in that month

[lab276]

Eh. It hasn't changed much in years.

[Shaldun]

October is already a good month IMO. That's kind of the pre-holiday season of November-December which have bigger movies due to holidays/Thanksgiving and just tradition I guess. October doesn't limit the BO as Gravity has proven. 

 

February isn't a dumping month anymore. Lego this year, Jupiter Ascending next year, the Valentine's Day week-end, they put big films there. 

 

March and April are now a pre-summer and it will become more and more the case in the coming years. After Cap 2 this year in April and THG in March 2012, we have Fast 7 in April 2015 and mainly Batman vs Superman in March 2016. WB put their biggest film of the year (and probably the biggest of 2016 from all studios except if Avatar 2 can do a 2016 release) in March so if that's not a big month, I don't know what it is. 

 

September and January stay kind of empty. It's the retunr to work/school months so it's not that good to go to movies I guess. Also, they are the limits between the Spring/Summer period (February to August now) and the Fall/Winter (October to December). It will probably be invaded by studios in a few years as were March, April and October.

[Robot308]

Why Would Relativity Media put The Best Of Me in October instead of putting it in February or April???? Bad idea!!!!!!

Edited October 11, 2014 by hcool6

[Ando918]

I think Jupiter Ascending was moved to early February in hopes of "breaking out" - kind of like how Lego Movie over-performed expectations with little competition that month.  However, it looks like Jupiter is still going to flop b/c it runs into 50 Shades of Grey in its 2nd weekend...so Tatum's dedicated base of female fans will be deserting him in that 2nd weekend.  Hollywood Stock Exchange is still projecting Jupiter to make only 60 domestic in its first 30 days.  So in the case of that one...doesn't look like it is going to work.

[mahnamahna]

I think Jupiter Ascending was moved to early February in hopes of "breaking out" - kind of like how Lego Movie over-performed expectations with little competition that month.  However, it looks like Jupiter is still going to flop b/c it runs into 50 Shades of Grey in its 2nd weekend...so Tatum's dedicated base of female fans will be deserting him in that 2nd weekend.  Hollywood Stock Exchange is still projecting Jupiter to make only 60 domestic in its first 30 days.  So in the case of that one...doesn't look like it is going to work.

Jupiter Ascending is a sci-fi movie from the guys who did The Matrix and Cloud Atlas... it won't completely die without female fans to begin with due to its genre. Plus, 50 Shades will make 60-70% of its gross over the 4 day weekend, then plummet afterwards. 

 

JA also has a couple months to build some hype (put a trailer in front of Interstellar, Mockingjay, Exodus, Hobbit 3, Unbroken and Tak3n... that'll get it some exposure). $80-100 million is achievable, but 50 Shades and SpongeBob 2 will dominate the month.