Can January/February & September/October End The Dumping Ground Off Season Cursed? I Hope So

[Eric Duncan]

Why Would Relativity Media put The Best Of Me in October instead of putting it in February or April???? Big idea!!!!!!

Because February and April were packed with major competition in both the romance genre and just movies in general? Big idea!!!!!!

 

But as for your answer, in many ways, February and October have changed. February seems to be where animated movies made by smaller studios are released (Escape from Planet Earth, Lego Movie, Spongebob, Illumination's Pets project), along with romcoms and romdrams, with the occasional action movie here and there. October seems to be a lot of horror, a kids movie here and there, and plenty of adult dramas/Oscar bait. For the other months, April, and especially March, seem to be giving a bigger focus on summer blockbusters, while August could make studios put less movies in the June and July area, and January...will still be where the crap goes. With the Oscar season and limited movies rolling in nationwide, January will have the movies that the studios know are bad and won't turn a profit, but a slightly bigger push on MLK weekend. September will also be filled with movies not as bad as January, but ones that won't get a big push on the distributor's slate, with some exceptions. Now I'm fine with how the release calendar works for now, but any change is welcome!

[Ando918]

Jupiter Ascending is a sci-fi movie from the guys who did The Matrix and Cloud Atlas... it won't completely die without female fans to begin with due to its genre. Plus, 50 Shades will make 60-70% of its gross over the 4 day weekend, then plummet afterwards. 

 

$80-100 million is achievable. 

Possibly.  I just don't think Tatum's female fans like him as a butt-kicking, violent action hero.  They like him either in a comedy or romance...where he comes across as a sweet guy.  I don't think a ton of males are going to show up for Jupiter Ascending.  Is the first weekend of June going to be Super Bowl weekend? 

[Robot308]

At least we have three Hard R-Rated ultra-violent actioners in February. Kingsman: The Secret Service (Friday February the 13th)

The Gunman (Feb 20) & Hitman: Agent 47 (Feb 27). Which one will do better????

[Ando918]

Honestly, I don't think any of those will do well.  The fact that there are 3 of them competing against each other 3 weekends in a row for the same audience kind of hurts all of them.

Edited October 11, 2014 by Ando81

[Robot308]

Honestly, I don't think any of those will do well.  The fact that there are 3 of them competing against each other 3 weekends in a row for the same audience kind of hurts all of them.

I respectfully disagree. I think anything can happen....we will see

[Masterwolf]

Insidious: Chapter 3 Will Most likely move back a week from May 29th to June 5th. It will happen mark my words

[lilmac]

At least we have three Hard R-Rated ultra-violent actioners in February. Kingsman: The Secret Service (Friday February the 13th)

The Gunman (Feb 20) & Hitman: Agent 47 (Feb 27). Which one will do better????

 

Kingsman

[Masterwolf]

I agree. Kingsman will be the best action film of February. Because Hitman: Agent 47 moved to the end of Next Summer (August 28th)

Edited April 5, 2015 by Masterwolf

[TServo2049]

The Gunman also moved to March 20 (I have no idea when that happened, but it did). So I guess Kingsman will be the most successful hard-R action film of February by default.

Also, I just realized that the majority of big studio releases in February were moved there, and not originally slotted there. Jupiter Ascending, Seventh Son, Fifty Shades, Kingsman, Hot Tub Time Machine 2, Jane Got a Gun and McFarland USA. I think Spongebob and Focus are the only major films that were originally announced for February and stayed there.

Edited October 26, 2014 by TServo2049

[DAJK]

Kingsman

I agree. If JA under-performs, Kingsman could be good counter-programming to Fifty Shades. 20M+ OW would be good, while the Gunman on the other hand I would be surprised if it broke 35M DOM total.

[Masterwolf]

I bet The Gunman will be good counterprograming to the Divergent sequel Insurgent in Late March Just like Olympus Has Fallen was to The Croods in 2013

[Masterwolf]

I just don't Get why Sony Moved there horror/comedy Kitchen Sink to Labor Day Weekend in Early September . one month removed from another Sony Horror/Comedy Goosebumps????

[DAJK]

I just don't Get why Sony Moved there horror/comedy Kitchen Sink to Labor Day Weekend in Early September . one month removed from another Sony Horror/Comedy Goosebumps????

ohmygod I didn't even know that Kitchen Sink moved until now. When did that happen? 

and since when was the Gunman in March? God, I should check up on my Box Office Mojo more often   

Edited October 26, 2014 by DAJK

[DAJK]

I bet The Gunman will be good counterprograming to the Divergent sequel Insurgent in Late March Just like Olympus Has Fallen was to The Croods in 2013

Now that I "finally" know that Gunman is in March, I think it can do better than my 35M guess (it was an action movie coming out in late February, who could blame me   ) I'm waiting for some trailers, but I don't know if it's enough of a "high-concept" movie to open to 30M+ against Insurgent the way Olympus has Fallen did against The Croods.

[Masterwolf]

Joel Sliver is the producer on The Gunman & it's being directed by the guy who did Taken & From Paris With Love. Pierre Morel!!!!!!!

Edited October 26, 2014 by Masterwolf

[Masterwolf]

Kidnap. the halle berry action thriller from Relativity most likely may move from Next October (2015) to Late January (2016)

[TServo2049]

I am wondering if the Gunman and Kitchen Sink moves were done during BOM's absence - Inferno's date change wasn't announced on BOM either, the date was just silently changed when they came back online and started updating again.

[Kalo]

October is already a good month IMO. That's kind of the pre-holiday season of November-December which have bigger movies due to holidays/Thanksgiving and just tradition I guess. October doesn't limit the BO as Gravity has proven. 

 

February isn't a dumping month anymore. Lego this year, Jupiter Ascending next year, the Valentine's Day week-end, they put big films there. 

 

March and April are now a pre-summer and it will become more and more the case in the coming years. After Cap 2 this year in April and THG in March 2012, we have Fast 7 in April 2015 and mainly Batman vs Superman in March 2016. WB put their biggest film of the year (and probably the biggest of 2016 from all studios except if Avatar 2 can do a 2016 release) in March so if that's not a big month, I don't know what it is. 

 

September and January stay kind of empty. It's the retunr to work/school months so it's not that good to go to movies I guess. Also, they are the limits between the Spring/Summer period (February to August now) and the Fall/Winter (October to December). It will probably be invaded by studios in a few years as were March, April and October.

I see a huge drop for Avatar 2, and think Batman V Superman is still gonna take the crown. 

[mahnamahna]

I see a huge drop for Avatar 2, and think Batman V Superman is still gonna take the crown. 

Finding Dory and Captain America 3 (with Iron Man and possibly other Avengers) say hello   Moana is also a wild-card

 

The top 4 DOM for 2016 is completely unpredictable right now... especially since Avatar 2 doesn't have an official release date yet

[filmlover]

January/February have become less of a dead zone the last several years due to appealing product being released. For example, the box office boon that went on for several months in early 2009 after a relatively soft Holiday 2008.