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BIG HERO 6 | 435.3 M overseas | 657.8 M worldwide

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It looks tailor made for the Japanese market almost.

 

But I've made that mistake before with Brave, which looked almost Miyazkian in its Japanese trailers.

 

Disney said BH6 was a "Love Letter to Japan"

It's a movie combining Japanese and American elements.

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It looks tailor made for the Japanese market almost.

Sure seems that way, although especially in retrospect so was Frozen in a less obvious, overt way--its connection (aside from popular aspects such as its songs) seems more philosophical, and although this may seem like a strange thing to say, to some, I'm not surprised that a country that so embraced movies like Spirited Away and Titanic would embrace Frozen.

It remains to be seen whether Big Hero 6 will make a deep connection, but even from what little I know of it, the movie actually seems to have a pretty decent chance. I'm not talking about being anywhere near as big as those other movies, but it could conceivably break out with numbers comparable to Pixar's top grossers. The major caveat, as mentioned in the Japan thread and maybe in this one earlier, is that Japanese audiences rarely take kindly to foreign movies that have so many Japanese trappings without being authentically Japanese and actually about Japan--like this one. Far from benefiting by this by default, this is something that Big Hero 6 has to overcome. Because the response seems to be enthusiastic so far, I'm still shooting for a $50 million target, although I wouldn't be too surprised if it grossed either 3X or 1/10th that much.

 

But I've made that mistake before with Brave, which looked almost Miyazkian in its Japanese trailers.

Brave itself was definitely not tailor-made for the Japanese market, in my opinion, although I can see what you mean by its trailers (even its domestic trailers), so the question is why it didn't even open that well. I don't know, but maybe somehow the word got out that it was not something that Japanese audiences would like much, despite being from Pixar (because it's not much like other Pixar movies, and no, it's not much like movies from WDAS, either).

Disney said BH6 was a "Love Letter to Japan"

It's a movie combining Japanese and American elements.

That's the intention, but how will Japanese audiences perceive it? Typically the reaction there would be negative, but in this case it's unpredictable for various reasons. If the movie succeeds there, big time, then in my view it wouldn't be because of its more superficial Japanese trappings--it would have to be something deeper that is still readily perceived in order to reach the masses (and like I said, it may well have this, as this "love letter to Japan" seems more than skin-deep, but it is so difficult to predict the overall response in this case).

Edited by Melvin Frohike
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Sure seems that way, although especially in retrospect so was Frozen in a less obvious, overt way--its connection (aside from popular aspects such as its songs) seems more philosophical, and although this may seem like a strange thing to say, to some, I'm not surprised that a country that so embraced movies like Spirited Away and Titanic would embrace Frozen.

It remains to be seen whether Big Hero 6 will make a deep connection, but even from what little I know of it, the movie actually seems to have a pretty decent chance. I'm not talking about being anywhere near as big as those other movies, but it could conceivably break out with numbers comparable to Pixar's top grossers. The major caveat, as mentioned in the Japan thread and maybe in this one earlier, is that Japanese audiences rarely take kindly to foreign movies that have so many Japanese trappings without being authentically Japanese and actually about Japan--like this one. Far from benefiting by this by default, this is something that Big Hero 6 has to overcome. Because the response seems to be enthusiastic so far, I'm still shooting for a $50 million target, although I wouldn't be too surprised if it grossed either 3X or 1/10th that much.

 

Brave itself was definitely not tailor-made for the Japanese market, in my opinion, although I can see what you mean by its trailers (even its domestic trailers), so the question is why it didn't even open that well. I don't know, but maybe somehow the word got out that it was not something that Japanese audiences would like much, despite being from Pixar (because it's not much like other Pixar movies, and no, it's not much like movies from WDAS, either).

That's the intention, but how will Japanese audiences perceive it? Typically the reaction there would be negative, but in this case it's unpredictable for various reasons. If the movie succeeds there, big time, then in my view it wouldn't be because of its more superficial Japanese trappings--it would have to be something deeper that is still readily perceived in order to reach the masses (and like I said, it may well have this, as this "love letter to Japan" seems more than skin-deep, but it is so difficult to predict the overall response in this case).

 

I'm very confident about its success in Japan, not being of its Japanese side (I think they don't care) but because it's an exciting movie from Disney creators and they'll probably love Baymax.

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So that's pretty much Brave level. Depending on holds what could it end with? 16-18M?

 

Not comparable, the Russian currency (the Ruble) collapsed, reaching an all-time low, so the number in dollars are really hit..

 

Brave was released with a much better exchange rate and a relatively healthy Russian economy, BH6 doesn't have that.

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Not comparable, the Russian currency (the Ruble) collapsed, reaching an all-time low, so the number in dollars are really hit..

 

Brave was released with a much better exchange rate and a relatively healthy Russian economy, BH6 doesn't have that.

I was referring to how much can it make since it had a similar OW. The fact that it would have made more has no importance to me. It makes what it makes. Over a few years when we'll compare animated movies to this, no one will remember that BH6 opened the same level as Brave because of ***insert reason***. We will only remember that it did.

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I was referring to how much can it make since it had a similar OW. The fact that it would have made more has no importance to me. It makes what it makes. Over a few years when we'll compare animated movies to this, no one will remember that BH6 opened the same level as Brave because of ***insert reason***. We will only remember that it did.

 

You're probably right :(

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I was referring to how much can it make since it had a similar OW. The fact that it would have made more has no importance to me. It makes what it makes. Over a few years when we'll compare animated movies to this, no one will remember that BH6 opened the same level as Brave because of ***insert reason***. We will only remember that it did.

 

Yes but it's good to remember the crappy exchange rate because Russia performs similar to a few other market and you can use the USD numbers as a measuring stick. You have to use rubles. 

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I was referring to how much can it make since it had a similar OW. The fact that it would have made more has no importance to me. It makes what it makes. Over a few years when we'll compare animated movies to this, no one will remember that BH6 opened the same level as Brave because of ***insert reason***. We will only remember that it did.

norbar has a point, though--being the movie's first market, for now some of us are more interested in gauging audience response than knowing the absolute amount that the movie grosses. So it made a similar amount in USD as Brave early on in Russia--that's true but not interesting, at least for now. That it is actually outperforming Brave due to differing exchange rates, at least in this market so far, is of greater interest because it's a sign, although this is just one market and it is way early, that it could gross more overseas than Brave's $302 million (not every market will have an unfavorable exchange rate).

On top of that, it is customary around these parts to judge a movie's box office performance using the local currency. You are correct that years from now it won't matter as much as the total gross in USD, but for the moment (and for those who have a particular interest in certain markets) it is more meaningful.

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norbar has a point, though--being the movie's first market, for now some of us are more interested in gauging audience response than knowing the absolute amount that the movie grosses. So it made a similar amount in USD as Brave early on in Russia--that's true but not interesting, at least for now. That it is actually outperforming Brave due to differing exchange rates, at least in this market so far, is of greater interest because it's a sign, although this is just one market and it is way early, that it could gross more overseas than Brave's $302 million (not every market will have an unfavorable exchange rate).

On top of that, it is customary around these parts to judge a movie's box office performance using the local currency. You are correct that years from now it won't matter as much as the total gross in USD, but for the moment (and for those who have a particular interest in certain markets) it is more meaningful.

 

BH6 will probably beat Brave almost everywhere, I'm pretty confident about it.

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I'm very confident about its success in Japan,

Well, I did implicitly (and deliberately) give it an upside of $150 million, which is HUGE in any singular market outside of North America. $50 million is what I'd be minimally satisfied with, and that's generally considered a big hit in Japan, especially for a foreign movie. So it's not as though I lack confidence in its potential, although as already stated there may be some obstacles in its path. Frozen, too, faced obstacles in some markets, particularly South Korea, which it did manage to overcome (almost miraculously in this case).

So do you have any predictions for the movie's gross in Japan, rough or otherwise? I also wonder about South Korea, which is normally like a graveyard for both WDAS and Pixar movies (like Japan generally is for DreamWorks movies). Frozen managed to break out, but this was powered by "Let It Go" and its other songs, and who knows what else (Koreans don't normally go for musicals, foreign movies, or animation). Will the combination of its Frozen connection, action, which Koreans tend to like in movies (I think), and Asian influences (although it's Japanese, which Koreans aren't overly fond of ;)) be enough to overcome the obstacles and enable Big Hero 6 to break out? I have a lot more doubt about South Korea than I do Japan. I expect most of the rest of Asia to be on board, though.

 

not being of its Japanese side (I think they don't care)

I hope that you're right, and at this point it seems that you most likely will be. For the movie to reach its potential, Japanese audiences have to give it a chance and take it somewhat seriously, at least, and I'm cautiously optimistic that they will, despite how silly its Japan-inspired elements must seem to them. Setting the story in the US with a mash-up between the Japanese and American cultures was actually a safe choice for the Japanese market (not that this was necessarily the intention), because knowing this I think they'd be more forgiving or tolerant of anything that deviated from strict adherence to Japanese culture (they can be rather picky about this, and are only occasionally forgiving). Who knows, maybe they'll even like this aspect, but that is difficult to predict.

 

but because it's an exciting movie from Disney creators and they'll probably love Baymax.

I think they'll love Baymax, and that being from the creators of Frozen (at least the same studio with much of the same staff) will help ensure that they'll give Big Hero 6 a chance. What will really determine the movie's potential is how well they can connect with the movie's emotional core and its themes, and I think that beyond its superficial aspects, this movie should appeal to Japanese audiences very much--probably not as much as Frozen, but likewise it almost seems tailored for Japan (well, there is a reason that Japan has always liked Disney, but it has just never been so extreme before). Now we'll just have to wait and see whether everything falls into place like I think it should.

 

 

BH6 will probably beat Brave almost everywhere, I'm pretty confident about it.

I think so, too--beating $302 million overseas should be no problem, and even $500 million is not out of the question. Now, the latter is generally a rather bold statement to make of an original animated feature, but I'm just saying that it might be possible if it breaks out in Japan, South Korea, and/or China, for example. If it does, then look out! If not, then something around $400 million would be more realistic.

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So do you have any predictions for the movie's gross in Japan, rough or otherwise? I also wonder about South Korea, which is normally like a graveyard for both WDAS and Pixar movies (like Japan generally is for DreamWorks movies). Frozen managed to break out, but this was powered by "Let It Go" and its other songs, and who knows what else (Koreans don't normally go for musicals, foreign movies, or animation). Will the combination of its Frozen connection, action, which Koreans tend to like in movies (I think), and Asian influences (although it's Japanese, which Koreans aren't overly fond of ;)) be enough to overcome the obstacles and enable Big Hero 6 to break out? I have a lot more doubt about South Korea than I do Japan. I expect most of the rest of Asia to be on board, though.

 

You raise some valid points but I'll have to contradict you here. Even with Frozen out of the picture, it is quite clear that musical films (and indeed, musicals in general) are a huge draw in Korea. Les miserables and Mamma Mia! for example were pretty huge with 5.9M and 4.58M admissions apiece. Not only that but musical films are among the highest rated films out there. Also films reputed to have good musical numbers such as Begin again, About time and August rush got amazing word of mouth and managed to do some really good business. I'd go as far as to say Big hero 6 not being a musical is probably a minus in Korea. 

 

About foreign films, it's only been a couple of years since admissions for local films started to noticeably outstrip them. Before that, it was pretty close with foreign films winning the year on a number of occasions. In no way or shape is the foreign market in a bad way at the current moment. 2014 is already a record year for foreign films in both admissions and gross and there's still 2 months remaining! It's only lagging behind local films by 5 million admissions right now and although I expect this gap to widen, it does not signify a huge bias towards local films.

 

Frozen aside, 2014 has been a pretty dire year for animated films. I think the misconception that they're for children only has to a large degree been washed away by Frozen but there was a lack of quality films properly placed to take advantage. HTTYD2 arguably had that potential but it was crushed by opening in the midst of a string of huge local films. Marketing hasn't really begun for BH6 yet and interest is very low so it's hard to say how well it'll do. I think though that with the good will of Frozen, people will give it a chance, provided that it delivers on quality. Japanese influences shouldn't be a problem since Ghibli studio animations are generally well received.

Edited by Rsyu
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You raise some valid points but I'll have to contradict you here.

The impressions I have about the South Korean movie market are admittedly based on cursory research, and you sure seem to know what you're talking about and can back it up, so I'll defer to what you say.

 

I'd go as far as to say Big hero 6 not being a musical is probably a minus in Korea.

OK, that and being animated and not from DreamWorks, at least based on the history I've seen (Frozen notwithstanding). After Frozen the biggest animated features are, if I'm not mistaken, the Kung Fu Panda movies, which feature martial arts + Asian trappings that would sure seem to play well in South Korea (but apparently not in Japan where these movies didn't do so hot), so maybe superheroes + Asian trappings will have some of the same appeal (you tell me ;)), especially when layered on top of the Frozen connection.

 

Frozen aside, 2014 has been a pretty dire year for animated films. I think the misconception that they're for children only has to a large degree been washed away by Frozen

But is this the new rule or merely an exception? I wonder because this false notion has a way of stubbornly sticking around, often coming back after it has been beaten down, even in markets that have generally embraced animation more than this one.

 

Marketing hasn't really begun for BH6 yet and interest is very low so it's hard to say how well it'll do. I think though that with the good will of Frozen, people will give it a chance, provided that it delivers on quality. Japanese influences shouldn't be a problem since Ghibli studio animations are generally well received.

It certainly will be interesting to find out. I expected basically nothing of Frozen in South Korea, and I'm still hesitant to expect any more of Big Hero 6, but maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised with another windfall.

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The impressions I have about the South Korean movie market are admittedly based on cursory research, and you sure seem to know what you're talking about and can back it up, so I'll defer to what you say.

OK, that and being animated and not from DreamWorks, at least based on the history I've seen (Frozen notwithstanding). After Frozen the biggest animated features are, if I'm not mistaken, the Kung Fu Panda movies, which feature martial arts + Asian trappings that would sure seem to play well in South Korea (but apparently not in Japan where these movies didn't do so hot), so maybe superheroes + Asian trappings will have some of the same appeal (you tell me ;)), especially when layered on top of the Frozen connection.

But is this the new rule or merely an exception? I wonder because this false notion has a way of stubbornly sticking around, often coming back after it has been beaten down, even in markets that have generally embraced animation more than this one.

It certainly will be interesting to find out. I expected basically nothing of Frozen in South Korea, and I'm still hesitant to expect any more of Big Hero 6, but maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised with another windfall.

 

For big hero 6 to succeed in a market like Korea, it needs to generate an atmosphere in which everyone is talking about it and all the media outlets are covering it. This is a key component for all successful films and Frozen managed to pull it off magnificently earlier in this year to the point everyday conversation was difficult if you hadn't watched the film. It's why films like Begin again and about time can succeed in this market.

 

In this respect, if they manage to do pull it off it doesn't matter much what studio or form of media it takes. Some people might watch this because they liked frozen but the majority will watch it only if it has good word of mouth. It helps that it is following the successful release date of frozen I think and should do really well over the Chinese new year. 

KFP2 level performance would be a great success for this in my opinion. 

Edited by Rsyu
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