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The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 OS Thread | 415m OS, 751m WW

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It's still grossing over a 1 billion tho. Its final result might be muted, but it's highly unlikely it falls under that benchmark, given the former history of what the grosses are of final installments in the franchises.

Unless it is completely crap even then he should still come close lol!

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Tickets went on sale for a few days now. The movie will open 21 Nov. here. It is ok for now. No sellouts, not even for the Thursday night previews, but some shows on Friday and Saturday evening are about 20% full. It is quite behind Interstellar through the same point which is surprising, given that THG has a built in fanbase. Still, Interstellar has IMAX on it's side and that's a huge plus. We'll see what it does this weekend and I'll try to make a prediction for MJ accordingly. The last one opened above 50.000 admissions, doubling the first THG, but finished with a total of a bit over 150.000 adm. Those are poor legs. MJ1 will open above that but it will depend on how much of it's audience Interstellar will take. It has 4 weeks to make money, before The Hobbit totally kills it. But it has strong competition even before that (Horrible Bosses 2, Penguins of Madagascar and especially Exodus - religious themed epics are always hits here - Noah is currently the 3rd biggest movie of the year). Overall, there's a small chance MJ1 finishes with less money than the last one if it's OW is not big enough. 

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A lot of anticipation in Brazil, that will be interesting to see.


THG1 grossed $10m there and THG2 $17m, for THG3 I see something between 24m and 30m. That's quite an improvement :D

I do not see it either. Remember that exchange rate is weak right now.

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Cannot express how hyped I am atm. I really want Mockingjay - Part 1 to reach $1B. $600M overseas is not a very big number anymore, although non-3D films have difficulties reaching it tbh.


Adding up the opening weekends in all overseas countries for Catching Fire gives $153M. This year Mockingjay - Part 1 opens almost everywhere on the same weekend (I think except China and Japan). Together these two made about $13M for Catching Fire, so the rest made $140M.


In order to reach at least $900M, Mockingjay - Part 1 needs $500M overseas. That would be 13.6% increase from CF ($440M overseas total). So a similar increase in opening weekend (without Japan and China) would result in $159M.


So I think $160M is my threshold for the overseas opening weekend, which is also, not surprisingly, what I would want the film to make on its North American opening weekend.

Edited by Quigley
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This will flop again in Japan. CF made even less than THG there. Japan doesn't care about THG.

As if success in Japan accounts for all of the OS market.

THG remains strong in Europe and Australia.Those two alone contributed to around $300mln.

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Well, a lot of movies are successful despite they failed in Japan, the market is not so important...

I don't think that's a very good sentiment to have, seeing as Japan is one of the 5 biggest markets in the world (I think it is 3 behind Domestic and China). It just so happens that the Japanese numbers don't really support one particular series that the members of this board seem to like. Doesn't mean Japan as a market isn't important though..

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Japan is extremely important. Pirates 4, Toy Story 3 and Alice in Wonderland wouldn't have earnd $1B if they only earned $50M in Japan ($50M is still a very good number). If a movie breaks out in Japan, it is destined for greatness (box office-wise, at least). Another obvious example is Frozen (alhough that one would've earned $1B even if it made zero money in Japan).

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